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Monday, April 18, 2022

More Evidence That The Russian Economy Is Imploding -- April 18, 2022

More evidence that the Russian economy is imploding

The Russians are not dumb people. They can see what's going on. 

Reuters is reporting: Russia flags further rate cut, more budget spending. Not sure what that means. The lede:

Russia on Monday flagged a likely further cut in interest rates and more budget spending to help the economy adapt to biting western sanctions as it heads for its deepest contraction since 1994.

Russia faces soaring inflation and capital flight while grappling with a possible debt default after the West imposed unprecedented sanctions to punish President Vladimir Putin for sending tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Putin said on Monday that Russia should use its state budget to support the economy and liquidity when lending activity has waned. The World Bank expects the economy to shrink by more than 11% this year.

Oh, that's it. Doing what the US did several years ago to stimulate the economy:

  • government stimulus spending; and,
  • interest rates cut, to stimulate the economy.

Of course, going on a war footing with 100% conscription is going to be one huge headwind.

I'm not exactly sure what Russia has to sell its consumers.

It's Over. TSA Is Tired Of The Charade Also -- April 18, 2022

Heaven help the airport terminal or the airline that tries to enforce the "Biden mask mandate." 

This is over. 

Over. 

Window of opportunity: the airlines need to take it. If they dither another judge will rule differently. Once the barn doors open, there's no going back. And the Biden extension was just for two weeks anyway. What was he thinking? It's not like they didn't know the deadline was coming?

Which airline is going to claim bragging rights to ending the mandate? My hunch: United. Possibly American. But it's a gamble. Upwards of 50% of the US population is still terrified of unmasked crowds and risks of Covid. CDC also agrees: let people make their own choices. I still mask up at Target.

Last major airline to fall in line: Alaska Airlines

Breaking: TSA will not enforce Covid mask mandate on planes, public transport. 

It's over. 

Another Snowed Out Day In Bismarck? April 18, 2022

California: might EVs be banned from national parks, forested areas, during dry season? 

WingStop: opportunity?

  • COVID round-trip:
  • recent high, $150; now under $100;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Commodities, nice chart.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

ESG: link here --

  • ESG crowd thought they could start oil and gas industry for capital;
  • sad reality: if oil and gas companies can't get capital from investors, they will get it the old-fashioned way;

Natural gas pipeline protesters: link here

  • 15-year high natural gas prices;
  • no pipelines to fix problem; no pipelines to protest;
  • it's hard to believe but there could actually be a Permian shortage this summer;
  • winter extended; will drive natural gas prices higher;
  • winter storm warnings in effect throughout central New York, mid-Hudson, Mohawk Valley, North Country, and Southern Tier regions; link here;

SPR misfire:

Germany industry in a panic: immediate Russian ban would be devastating. This is not from the Enquirer but from Charles Kennedy. The dots continue to connect.

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Back to the Bakken

DUCs: low fracklog is a funny way of saying DUCs are running out DUCs: lowest on record. Link to Julianne Geiger. Nice summary: drilled and DUCs. Operator simply can't get the frack spreads. But look at this: 

The method with which the EIA calculates DUC wells has been called into question well before the dwindling fracklog.

Natural gas: up 7.12%; up 52 cents; closes at $7.82.

Active rigs:

$108.20
4/18/202204/18/202104/18/202004/18/201904/18/2018
Active Rigs3617326359

Daily activity report posted a day late.

Six permits renewed:

  • CLR (4): the brothers Gibb, in Williams County
  • SHD Oil & Gas: a Mufasa permit in McLean County
  • EOG: an Austin permit in Mountrail County

I Can Die And Go To Heaven -- April 18, 2022

Two incredible legal stories are breaking.

  • masks on airliners; Biden.
  • SALT tax on blue states. Trump.

PGA:

  • Jordan Spieth wins a PGA tournament. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Breakout:

  • CVX: hits a 52-week high? If not, very, very close.

Refiners:

  • I can't remember if I posted this last week, re: breakout for refiners;
  • I hope I did
  • today, MPC surging;
  • just saying.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Wow, Did Anyone See This Coming -- Natural Gas Up Almost 10% Today -- Monday, April 18, 2022

Natural gas, futures: contango. $8.50 in January, 2023; right now: $8.00; up 9.3%.

How's the market taking this?

  • CVX: up 1.44% up $2.47; trading at $174;
  • MNRL: up 2.11%; up 59 cents; trading at $28.52;
  • EOG: up half a percent; up 64 cents; trading at $123.60;
  • HES: up 1.46%; up $1.67; trading at $116;
  • SRE: up minimally; up one-fourth percent; up 43 cents; trading at $171.76;
  • OKE: up 2.1%; up $1.50; trading at $72.80;
  • WMB: up a bit less than a half-percent; up 15 cents; trading at $35.66;

ISO NE: link here -- this is very, very interesting.

  • when the marginal fuel is natural gas or natural gas / wind, prices for electricity are lower;
  • so, with natural gas spiking, one would expect ISO NE prices to start moving up, all things being equal. We will track this going forward.

Monday Morning Oil -- April 18, 2022

Monday morning, oil, natural gas:

  • oil
    • Brent: up 2.02%; up $2.26; trading at $114.00
    • WTI: up 1.8%; up $1.94; trading at $108.90;
    • prices are now back to where they were prior to Biden's announcement to release SPR
  • natural gas: contango. $8+ in January, 2023; right now: $8.00; up 9.3%
  • oil, gasoline: somewhat unvarying during the seasons, at least compared to natural gas;
  • natural gas: quite seasonally variable
  • and, so it goes
  • crude oil, one major exception: very seasonal in Mideast

Saudi crude oil exports: previously posted in graphic form; now the article;
Saudi crude oil exports jump to highest level since April, 2020
reminder: global lock downs began March, 2020

  • Saudi crude oil exports jumped to 7.307 million barrels per day in February.
  • Saudi crude oil exports topped the 7-million-bpd mark for the first time since the start of the pandemic.
  • JODI: Saudi crude oil and oil products closing stocks in February rose by 316,000 bpd to 235.8 million barrels.

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Easter Sunday, 2022

Levi, Judah and their dad.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- April 18, 2022

Saudi: direct crude oil fell slightly in February, and may fall further in March, but by April will start to rise. See graphics here. Most remarkable is how little Saudi's direct oil use is, even at peak months.

Biden surge, the SPR release:

  • at $107, WTI is back to where it was before the announcement; link here;
  • releasing crude oil from storage is not production; releasing crude from storage reduces storate; it actually makes the market tighter; link here.

Fact: we're not going "all-renewable," regardless of what MSNBC and the rest of media say; link here. Or go direct to The WSJ article.

Fun little bit of social media: link here.

  • Alexion Pharmaceuticals: global pharmaceutiical company; ticker, ALXN

John Kerry: his house.

*************************************
Six Bells: 3:00 O'Clock
In Mad Holiday, 1936

Mad Holiday was clearly a knock-off of The Thin Man (1934); the latter went on to produce five sequels, six movies in all, coming out every two to three years, last one released, 1947.

From westmarine:

Bells rung on the half hour; four-hour cycles

  • even number of bells: "on the hour"
  • odd number of bells: "on the half-hour:

Originated in sailing ship days when the crew was divided into PORT and STARBOARD watches:

  • each crew on duty for four hours; thus the four-hour "bell" cycle

Watches:

  • four hour bell cycle:
    • first watch: 8:00 p.m. to midnight;
    • middle watch: midnight to 4:00 a.m.;
    • morning watch: 4:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m.;
    • forenoon watch: 8:00 a.m. to noon
    • afternoon watch: noon to 4:00 p.m.
  • transition
    • first dog watch: 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
    • second dog watch: 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.

Dog watches:

  • allows for watches to be changed every day
  • this permits each watch to get a turn of eight hours rest at night;
  • otherwise each member of the crew would be on duty the same hours every day.

By the way:

  • one can quickly "guess" how a timepiece came to be called a "watch." Link here.
  • although it appears Shakespeare did not coin this word, he was among the first to use it:
  • earliest example in print: 1590, Elizabethan pamphleteer Richard Harvey;
  • Shakespeare: 1598, Love's Labour's Lost

And, on another note: I have one of these clocks in the "bat cave":

  • I had no idea it was worth this much; wow.
  • based on the origin (source of my clock) it is probably worth much more, though it has a few nicks


Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- CLR With Three -- Sinclair, Hunt, Whiting Each With One -- April 18, 2022

Space capacity: maybe Saudi Arabia does have spare capacity. Link here. Second link here. Third link here.


*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$106.6
4/18/202204/18/202104/18/202004/18/201904/18/2018
Active Rigs?17326359

Monday, April 18, 2022: 34 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 193 for one year
38533, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 13-34HSL1,
37013, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 4-27H,

Sunday, April 17, 2022: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 191 for one year
38532, conf, CLR, Whitman FIU 12-34H2,
38493, conf, Sinclair, Grasslands Federal 14-15-1H,

Saturday, April 16, 2022: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 189 for one year
38534, conf, Hunt, Quill 145-93-10-3H 3,
37662, conf, Whiting, Lacey 12-1-2H, 

RBN Energy: small-scale LNG plants in US find niche markets at home and abroad.

Massive LNG export terminals and shipments to Europe get all the attention these days, and for good reason. But there’s a lot more going on with U.S. LNG below the radar, and on a much smaller scale. Peak-shaving liquefaction plants to help gas-distribution utilities up north keep the lights on during high winter demand periods. Plants that make LNG for a wide variety of industrial, mining and oil-and-gas-production customers, and for LNG-powered trucks and ships — often to help reduce emissions and meet ESG goals. And there are a number of small liquefaction plants in the U.S. that export LNG to power-generation and industrial customers in the Caribbean and Mexico. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a short series on an often-overlooked but important market for U.S. natural gas.

Focus On Fracking -- Posted -- April 17, 2022

This week's edition of "Focus on Fracking" has been posted. The lede:

  • natural gas price is at a 13-year high;
  • distillates supplies are at an 8-year low;
  • oil product exports highest ever.

Wow, wow, wow, those are the three main themes I picked up on my own earlier in the week.

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Rambling

I started the blog simply because I wanted to understand "oil in North Dakota." I've discussed that elsewhere and no need to go over it again.

Over the years I realized how important "following the money" was if one wants to understand the oil sector. 

So, I followed the money -- mostly through the stock market, annual reports, analysts' analyses, etc. 

I had little interest in investing. I invested a bit along the way but generally lost money when investing based on what I saw developing in the Bakken. 

But in the past year or so, I've become more serious about investing in general, but not with regard to the Bakken. 

So, some thoughts on "oil" tonight and investing. I doubt anything I write about tonight will be "actionable." I'm simply going to ramble about some observations.

Observation #1.

I don't know if folks realize this, but a lot of investors, a lot of professionally managed funds, a lot of hedge funds have refused to invest in fossil fuel due to ESG issues. This is about to change.

Observation #2.

It looks like tech is going to get hit (negatively) again tomorrow, whereas "oil" will do relatively better. That helps explain observation #1.

Observation #2a: Warren Buffett buys into ESG but not in the same way that Greta defines ESG. He especially buys into the "G" in ESG.

Observation #2b: ESG is dead.

Observation #2c: "energy transition," a euphemism for "a shift to renewable energy" is also dead.

Observation #3.

Folks a lot smarter than I tell us that we are about to enter in a super-cycle regarding oil. Super-cycles tend to last years, not months or weeks. 

Observation #4.

Later, I will post a most interesting chart, but medium-size oil companies are about to generate so much cash flow that they will have enough cash to buy all of their outstanding shares, in others, taking their companies private. Of course, they won't, but that tells you how incredible that FCT is going to be. 

Observation #5.

Small oil companies are going to get hammered. Large oil companies will do well, but not great. Mid-size oil companies are going to blow your socks off, as they say.

Observation #6.

Putin has no Plan B. Assuming Russia doesn't go globally nuclear, mid-size oil companies are going to blow your socks off. Russia may go nuclear. I would argue that going regionally nuclear would be exactly what needs to happen. Perhaps more on that later.

Observation #7. 

This year, or next year, we will see data that corroborates or refutes that the Mideast (OPEC, not OPEC+) has "spare capacity." I think "spare capacity" is a myth. I could be wrong; that's fine. But let's find out. And I think we will, either this year or next year.

Observation #8.

The Biden administration has no more tools in their toolkit, no more arrows in its quiver, to influence US shale to produce more oil in the short term. Any chance that the Biden administration can make the energy situation better is between slim and none, and slim just left town. The Biden administration can only make things worse. No matter how bad things get, it doesn't mean they can't get worse.

Observation #9.

For investors, it's all about dividends for the next five years.

Observation #10. 

The gap between investors and non-investors will continue to wide, even during a "bear market" or a recession or years of stagflation.

Observation #11.

Most folks are throwing around the word "stagflation" without really defining it, or providing any metrics. 

Observation #12.

Releasing oil from the SPR only "tightens" the oil market.  

Observation #13.

Putin's War changes everything. So many story lines but at 2:05 a.m. I'm not interested in going through them.

Observation #14.

Natural gas market: contango. 

Observation #15:

Crude oil: backwardation. Once analysts understand what's going on, we'll see contango in oil. We'll see contango when the "myth of spare capacity" is shown to be not a myth. The fact we're not in contango with regard to crude oil suggests that analysts are misreading the tea leaves.