All I Can Say Is "Spooky" -- Is 68 A Lychrel Number --- Being The Ricardos -- Covid-19 Update -- March 5, 2022

A reader sent me this:

I fact-checked this on the internet, and these dates are exactly correct. These are the "official" dates. 

Is "68" a Lychrel number?

•  68 + 86 = 154
• 154 + 451 = 605
• 605 +506 = 1111

Nope, and only three iterations. 

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The Movie Page

Updates

March 6, 2022: wow, wow, wow. I really missed it. I asked the question in the original post, why would Jeff Bezos spend so much money on a big-budget film (Being the Ricardos) and then, essentially, giving it away for free. There are two reasons:

• one: movies, as we know them, are going away. No more big cineplexes as the only game in town for big budget movies; it will be a hybrid; streaming and cineplexes. Jeff Bezos wants to be part of that future.
• two: imagine all the "free advertising" Amazon will get if Nicole Kidman wins the Oscar. She is nominated and that gives Amazon gravitas and lots of free advertising. Ya think? Next time Bezos comes to Hollywood he will get a huge reception. Can you imagine if he is in the audience when Nicole is on stage accepting the Oscar. This meant a lot to her.

Original

An Amazon Original. 

Being The Ricardos: 

"During one production week of "I Love Lucy" -- from Monday table read through Friday audience taping -- Lucille Ball (Nicole Kidman) and Desi Arnaz (Javier Bardem) face a series of personal and professional crises that threaten their show, their careers and their marriage, in writer-director Aaron Sorkin's behind-the-scenes drama.

It's worth a watch. I couldn't watch it as a singular activity but having it on in the background while blogging was perfect. I hear Nicole Kidman is up for an Oscar for this one. Must drive Tom Cruise nuts.

Nicole Kidman, much of the time, was a perfect Lucille Ball. If Kidman doesn't have an eating disorder, she must really watch her diet closely and maintain a rigorous physical training program to maintain that figure. Pretty amazing. And especially when folks say film "adds ten pounds."

Most interesting: Philip Morris was prominently featured in the movie but yet there was almost no smoking. In fact, I don't recall any smoking (there must have been some, I just missed it) but there were a few ash trays (something many millennials would not recognize these days), and the character playing the Philip Morris representative in the movie held a cigarette between his fingers, but I don't recall him ever taking a puff -- it was almost bizarre. 

[In contrast, both my wife and I were surprised how much smoking there is  in the old Perry Mason series. Paul Drake is at least a three-pack-a-day smoker; Perry Mason, more reserved, maybe a pack-a-day in some episodes. Surprisingly and refreshingly, Della Street is never seen smoking. But I digress.]

From 1951 to 1955, Philip Morris sponsored the CBS sitcom "I Love Lucy", with Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz pitching the product often, and Philip Morris controlling the content of the program. In 1955, Philip Morris became an alternate sponsor with Procter & Gamble, eventually bowing out altogether by the end of that year.

Lucille Ball was a heavy smoker most of her life.

On April 18, 1989, Ball was admitted to Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles after experiencing chest pains. She was diagnosed with a dissecting aortic aneurysm and underwent surgery to repair her aorta and a successful seven-hour aortic valve replacement. [I spent some time training at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center many decades ago.]

Shortly after dawn on April 26, 1989, Ball awoke with severe back pain, then lost consciousness; she died at 5:47 am PDT at the age of 77. 

Doctors determined that Ball had succumbed to a ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm not directly related to her surgery. A greater incidence of aortic aneurysm is seen in cigarette smokers and Ball had been a heavy smoker most of her life.

Which reminds me. Look at her age of death: 77.  Seventy-seven is relatively young these days for folks who have reached age 70. Remember the statistics in the early days of Covid? Those most likely to die were in their 90s. Much could be said. 

I don't recall Nicole Kidman ever holding a cigarette in the movie. [Re-watching the movie, she took a single puff early in the movie when all the characters were being introduced. A few other times, holding a cigarette, but that was about it.]

I didn't care for every episode of "I Love Lucy," but I bet I saw every episode. It played in re-runs at 10:00 a.m. Monday - Friday when I was in training, and that's exactly when we went on rounds. And every patient had their television tuned to those re-runs of "I Love Lucy." 

The movie: an Amazon Original. I have no idea why Jeff Bezos would pay big bucks for big-budget movie productions. I can't imagine anyone subscribing to Amazon Prime to watch these movies. There are a nice perk, but it made no difference in my decision to re-up for Amazon Prime even with its recent (and significant) subscription price increase. [Later. I just watched the movie again. I think I know why Jeff Bezos would do this.]

You know it's a good movie when you can watch it twice, back-to-back. 

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Covid-19

Speaking of Covid, the other day I mentioned that the US Covid-19 vaccination program was coming to an end based on daily figures released by the CDC.

Example: number of vaccinations given in the US on the following dates --

• Saturday, December 4, 2021: 1,974,857
• Saturday, today, March 5, 2022: 336,031
• Friday, last week, February 25, 2022: 169,162

Seasonal flu: the season is over, unless there's another unexpected surge; one of the mildest seasons in recent history; the lack of pediatric illness / death is absolutely mind-boggling. Obviously all the actions taken to minimize Covid in spreading among infants, toddlers, and elementary children had huge positive effect on seasonal flu among that demographic.

On The Cusp Of An Economic Singularity -- Doomberg -- And Task Force KleptoCapture -- March 5, 2022

Over on twitter, this essay is getting a lot of attention. It is not behind a paywall. It links to a New York Times article which I cannot access (paywall) and to a Wall Street Journal op-ed that I can access (paywall). 

Doomberg is excellent. I've been following it for some time. Unfortunately it goes behind a paywall soon. I like Doomberg but won't be subscribing.

I digress. Back to the current essay, "On The Cusp of an Economic Singularity." 

I've read the essay several times. I do not understand the article except that it lives up to the name of the writer: "Doomberg." 

The writer skips all over: from agriculture to banking to cryptocurrency to gold to oil to whatever. 

At the end of the day, I'm not sure what the takeaway was except that with regard to the global economic system, we don't know what's coming next. Okay. But it's all doom.

It almost reads as if it were written by a gold bug or gold bugs. 

The WSJ op-ed linked could definitely have been written by a gold bug but it lost all credibility with this one sentence: 

If currency balances were to become worthless computer entries and didn’t guarantee buying essential stuff, Moscow would be rational to stop accumulating them and stockpile physical wealth in oil barrels, rather than sell them to the West. At the very least, more of Russia’s money will likely shift into gold and Chinese assets. 

However, both The WSJ op-ed and the Doomberg essay does take me back to the graph at this link. One has to ask the question: with Saudi maxing out its exports at highest prices in recent memories why are Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves falling? Is there something else going on? Is Saudi Arabia stockpiling gold in lieu of foreign exchange assets? Did Russia let Saudi Arabia know some months ago that a significant geopolitical event might behoove Saudi Arabia to start exchanging dollars for gold. I have not idea, but it doesn't bring up another point.

An incursion as big and as coordinated as the Russian incursion in to Ukraine was not a last minute decision. The planning, of course, would have been going on for years, but serious planning would have had to begun at least six months ago. Secrets are hard to keep, and it's hard to believe that the plus in OPEC+ was not talking to MBS about Russia's plans. 

I have no idea. Lots to think about. 

By the way, The New York Times article that I cannot access: "Justice Department Announces Task Force To Go After Russian Oligarchs." The formal name of the task force: Task Force KleptoCapture. Here is the US government's announcement from March 3, 2022, three days ago. 

Today, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland announced the launch of Task Force KleptoCapture, an interagency law enforcement task force dedicated to enforcing the sweeping sanctions, export restrictions, and economic countermeasures that the United States has imposed, along with allies and partners, in response to Russia’s unprovoked military invasion of Ukraine. Task Force KleptoCapture will ensure the full effect of these actions, which have been designed to isolate Russia from global markets and impose serious costs for this unjustified act of war, by targeting the crimes of Russian officials, government-aligned elites, and those who aid or conceal their unlawful conduct.

“The Justice Department will use all of its authorities to seize the assets of individuals and entities who violate these sanctions,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “We will leave no stone unturned in our efforts to investigate, arrest, and prosecute those whose criminal acts enable the Russian government to continue this unjust war. Let me be clear: if you violate our laws, we will hold you accountable.”

“To those bolstering the Russian regime through corruption and sanctions evasion: we will deprive you of safe haven and hold you accountable,” said Deputy Attorney General Lisa O. Monaco. “Oligarchs be warned: we will use every tool to freeze and seize your criminal proceeds.”

On a final note, doesn't "KleptoCapture" seem very juvenile?   

Did I Miss Something? The Market And The Book Reviews For March 5, 2022

I haven't watched CNBC in about four weeks now.  I haven't read the WSJ very much except the book reviews, art and literature. Was there a market correction? Did I miss that? If this was a market correction, my portfolio seems to have missed it. LOL.

But some say the bottom is in. Okay.

I guess I missed it.

Link here.

Having looked at Rivian and Lucid in the past few days, methinks we're not there yet. 

Warren Buffett has often said he likes dividends, as long as he's collecting them, not paying them. I pay close attention to dividends when investing.

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CLR

This is completely random but I've never seen this before.  A reader who has minerals in the Bakken sent me a long, long list of prices paid for oil per CLR.

Example, month/year: price --

• 12/21: $83.82
• 8/15: $36.67
• 5/14: $96.15
• 8/13: $95.83
• 2/12: $90.00

There were months when natural gas was being sold for $7.00. 

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The Book Page

Wow, three great essays in The Wall Street Journal's book reviews section.

Edna St Vincent Millay: years ago I was in my Edna St Vincent Millay phase. I read everything about her and read much of what she wrote. 

I am reminded of my favorite story which really, really sums up her free-spirit attitude on life.

Ms Millay tells the story when she and her boyfriend are on a picnic, both without wearing anything, enjoying lunch on a blanket. He, unfortunately, got stung by a bee near the end of his penis. Miss Millay says her dad (or someone, I have long forgotten whom) taught her how to remove the poison from a rattlesnake bite. She says she saved her boyfriend's life.

Hunter S. Thompson: I'm currently re-reading for the nth time Hunter S Thompson's second volume of Fear and Loathing in America, an anthology of his letters starting in 1968. I read the book while waiting for Olivia when I pick her up from soccer practice. I have no plans to read another biography of HST; I will go back and re-read his original works instead.

Years ago, when I was transitioning from my role as the commander of the flagship hospital for USAF's Air Combat Command, I slept in my office for about two weeks. I was quite depressed at the time knowing that I was leaving the best job in the world. I would make myself scarce between 2200 and 2400 when the cleaning staff came in but but then return to sleep on a small couch. HST's Hell's Angels kept me company. HST probably saved my life. A bit of hyperbole, but perhaps not much.

Virginia Woolf's Mrs Dalloway is a prose poem. Parts of HST's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas are also a prose poem, lyrical and so incredibly wonderful to read.

John von Neumann: one of the aliens that landed in Hungary some decades ago.

OXY Up 18% On News That Warren Buffett Has Huge Position -- March 5, 2022

The "oils" all did okay yesterday after an incredible week, but OXY has a particularly good day, Friday, the last trading day of the week, surging 17%, if I recall. I didn't think about asking "why?". I just figured it was one of those things.

Well, now we know. Yes, it was just one of those things, if one of those things is Warren Buffett.

Personally I don't "get" the story. Wasn't this all known? I don't understand how it all works but I have a pretty good idea what warrants are all about, and this seems it was simply pre-ordained a year or so ago, assuming OXY didn't go broke. With regard to the OXY warrants, see this post.

Link here.

Weren't the warrants priced at $26? OXY closed at $56, up $8 yesterday. So, if you got all these warrants last year or whenever it was, you now bought $50-OXY at $26. As I said, I don't understand how it works, but I bet I'm not too far off the mark.

As for me, I just keep accumulating shares in great American companies.

Norway Wealth Fund's Russian Investments Are Worthless -- Reuters -- March 5, 2022

Link here.

"It's a race against time" is tracked here.

Huge Cash Crunch Over At Rivian; Now, All Those Pre-Orders? Being Sold At A Loss -- March 5, 2022

I track EVs here. 

I almost this story. Huge story. Speaks volumes about the trouble these EV manufacturers are in. 

I didn't keep the link but someone on twitter mentioned that he put an order in for an F-150 Lightning back in 2021 minutes after Ford started accepting pre-orders. Yesterday that individual received a note from Ford that he would not be getting his F-150 Lightning in 2022. That's absolutely stunning. Again, EVs are for the elites, for those who already have two or three cars and can wait two or three years for an EV. 

How long have "we" been manufacturing EVs and there's still a supply chain problem? 

Anyway, I digress. This was the story I was referring to -- about Rivian.

Link here.

Rivian Automotive Inc has rolled back price hikes on electric vehicles booked before March 1 after facing backlash from customers following a 20% increase in prices.

Preorders as of March 1 will not be subject to the new prices, and customers who canceled orders can reinstate them with the original price, Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said in a letter to clients on Thursday.

The Amazon-backed company on March 1 increased the base price of the Rivian R1T electric pickup to about $79,500 from $67,500, while the R1S SUV went to $84,500 from $70,000.

The price hike spurred some customers to cancel orders and express frustration, accusing the company of "betraying" its early supporters, according to social media postings.

"It was wrong and we broke your trust in Rivian," Scaringe wrote.

"I have made a lot of mistakes since starting Rivian more than 12 years ago, but this one has been the most painful."

Rivian stock, which plunged over 13% on Wednesday, extended losses on Thursday, down 4%.

A lot of Rivian owners are going to make a killing if they ever get their pre-orders. As soon as they get them, they could turn around and "flip" them for the going price of a new Rivian. My hunch: some will double their money.

Holy Mackerel! Completely Unexpected! Saudi Arabia's Foreign Exchange Reserves, January, 2022

This is before the Ukraine invasion. One assumes MBS has a significant investment in the Russian stock market. It will be interesting to look at this chart when the March, 2022, data is displayed but we won't see that until early May, 2022. 

Link here. Released overnight: