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Sunday, February 13, 2022

Ukraine -- February 13, 2022

 

Updates

Later, 10:59 p.m. CT: of the 5-ship, only two are seen now. Chief-One-Two has reversed direction and is now heading west, back home; and LAGR966 is heading due north over France, also heading back home. It’s possible a two-ship and a three-ship are each “using” one transponder.

Later, 9:44 p.m. CT: Canada’s Trudeau calls emergency cabinet meeting for midnight tonight. Waited until after Super Bowl ended.. “Emergency Actions” to be called. Follows violence in BC earlier today. Won’t relax mandates under general civil disobedience. Runs risk of Canadian trucking industry calling nationwide strike. Empty shelves? You haven’t seen empty shelves yet?

Later, 9:13 p.m. CT: B-52s in oval re-fueling track waiting for tankers. Probably another thirty minutes. USN in spectator mode. Link here.

Later, 7:44 p.m. CT: destination -- Rendezvous.

Later, 7:35 p.m. CT: the B-52s picked up again; off the coast of Lisbon, Portugal. Same route F-111s flew when US bombed Libya decades ago. Everything suggests KC-135s en route to intercept B-52s (Chief-One-One and Chief-One-Two) over the Mediterranean en route to Ukraine. 

Later, 7:23 p.m. CT: holy mackerel! I've never seen this except in time of hostilities (and training exercises): three KC-135T Stratotankers in trail, now flying south-south-east over France. Earlier, recall that two B-52s departed the same British base and headed south around the Iberian peninsula before they turned off their transponders. 

Later, 7:10 p.m. CT: a USAF refueling a/c, a KC-135T Stratotanker, has just departed RAF Mildenhall. Wow. The RAF Mildenhall tarmac must be full of US a/c with multiple takeoffs every hour. The Brits must be loving. The Brits have three hobbies: plants, pets, and, planes.

Later, 6:11 p.m. CT: yet another USAF C-17 just entered airspace along Polish - Ukraine border. Over the entire country of Poland, right now, literally 1/7 of all tracked a/c are USAF military.

Later, 6:01 p.m. CT: this is interesting. An RAF C-17 departed Kiev in far east Ukraine and flew to and landed at Lviv in far west Ukraine. Evacuating Ukrainians from Kiev? That would be my first guess.

Later, 5:53 p.m. CT: two USAF B-52s in trail now flying southeast over English Channel. Chief-One-One and Chief-One-Two. This would be a good day to watch Dr Strangelove if not interested in the Super Bowl.

Later, 4:24 p.m. CT: another Global Hawk drone has just entered Ukraine airspace from the south.

Later, 4:20 p.m. CT: another USAF C-17 is flying over Krakow headed towards Ukraine.

Later, 2:11 p.m. CT: from two days ago, US B-52s have arrived in Europe, RAF Fairford, UK.

Later, 2:08 p.m. CT: Russian news agency, TASS, is also providing updates

Later, 1:54 p.m. CT: this RC-135 -- River Joint -- is already unimportant to track but I'm curious where it lands. It is headed west, now over the English Channel, directly west of Norwich / Thetford / Bury St Edmunds. Jake-One-Two at 4,000 feet just west of RAF Mildenhall, 2:17 p.m.CT. Landed at RAF Mildenhall at 2:25 p.m. CT.

Later, 1:40 p.m. CT: another huge passenger plane has just departed RAF Brize Norton, see below. It's an Airbus. It's now over the English Channel. Again, link from a reader. The Airbus A400M:  

With the completion of this key milestone, the A400M excels in its paratrooping role, being able to carry 116 paratroopers who can jump two at a time from the ramp in freefall, or through the paratroop side doors with automatic parachute opening, a state-of-the-art capability that greatly increments its operational -- from 2002.

Note: RAF Upper Heyford, an important USAF base during the Cold War is about 30 miles northeast of Brize Norton. See below.

Original Post
Sunday February 13, 2022 -- 1:40 p.m. CT

It appears a USAF C-17, having taken off from a British air station some hours ago is about to land at Kiev. Link here.  Currently at 2,000', heading due south, directly east of Kiev. Interestingly, a commercial passenger plane, having originated in Hungary, is following the C-17 track, trailing back a few miles.

The C-17 took off from Brize Norton, UK:

RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire is the largest RAF Station with approximately 5,800 Service Personnel, 1,200 contractors and 300 civilian staff. 

The Station is home to the RAF's Strategic and Tactical Air Transport (AT) and Air-to-Air Refuelling (AAR) forces, as well as host to many lodger and reserve units. 

With its mixed fleet of aircraft, RAF Brize Norton provides rapid global mobility in support of UK overseas operations and exercises, as well as AAR support for fast jet aircraft both on operations and in support of UK Homeland Defence.

Later, 1:12 p.m. CT, the USAF C-17 has landed at Boryspil (Ukraine) International Airport. Likewise, that Hungarian a/c has also just landed at same airport, both within minutes of each other.

Now: another USAF C-17 headed toward Ukraine border over Poland appears to be making a 180° turn heading away from border. The C-17 is designed to airdrop 102 paratroopers and their equipment. 3,500 paratroopers / 102 per C-17 sortie = 35 sorties. The airdrops appears to have begun yesterday or the day before.

Meanwhile, Jake-One-Two, RC-135, Rivet Joint, is now returning home, over Germany, headed west, having completed several passes over the Ukraine earlier. Boryspil: eighteen miles east of Kiev; Ukraine's largest airport, serving 65% of its passenger air traffic, including all its intercontinental flights and a majority of international flights.

Sunday Night: WTI Moving Up — $93.87 — February 13, 2022

Later, 7:20 p.m. CT: WTI at $94.86.

Later, 6:15 p.m. CT: WTI at $94.73.

Later, 5:57 p.m. CT: up 1.3%; up $1.20. Now trading at $94.30.

Later, 5:34 p.m.CT: exactly $94.00.

A Little North Dakota Cattle History -- February 13, 2021

Updates

Schaff, 2022, results: link here

From a year ago, link here:

North Dakota Stockmen's Association Executive Vice President Julie Ellingson was recently named agriculturalist of the year at the North Dakota State University’s 95th Little International. 
Ellingson grew up on a registered Angus cattle ranch in St. Anthony, N.D., Schaff Angus Valley. 
It is here where her deep appreciation and passion for agriculture was planted. 
Ellingson received her degree in mass communication and general agriculture. She attended both Bismarck State and North Dakota State University. 
She then worked for a county newspaper for a short amount of time until she joined the North Dakota Stockmen's Association, where she has worked for over two decades. 
Outside of her role at North Dakota Stockmen’s Association, Ellingson and her husband raise registered Angus cattle at Ellingson Angus. 
“My husband and I merged our herds when we were married in 1995. Since then, we have grown our own cattle operation and we now raise registered Angus cattle on the site where I grew up,” Ellingson said.

From ellingsonangus.aboutus:

Ellingson Angus was founded in 1995, when Julie Schaff and Chad Ellingson married and merged their registered Angus herds.

Julie grew up on the registered Angus ranch near St. Anthony, N.D., where Ellingsons today call home. Her paternal grandparents, Paul and Magdeline Schaff, began the family's registered Angus program. The tradition was passed to Julie's parents, Martin and Angie.

Chad, the son of Lester, Jr., and Cheryll Ellingson, came from Maddock, N.D., where he raised mostly commercial cattle and other livestock. His maternal grandparents, Miles and Dot Maddock, were also registered Angus breeders for a time.

Original Post

Previously posted:

Angus bull sales report: link here.

  • Schaff, St Anthony, ND: yet to report; sale yesterday;
    • last year's record, Schaff: $275,000
  • Ellingson Angus, St Anthony, ND, this year:
    • looks like the one to beat
    • registered bulls, average: $12,407
    • top bull: $175,000
  • most auctions across the country, top bull: $10,000 to $30,000
  • the all-time record, link here:
    • Schaff, St Anthony, ND
    • February 9, 2019
    • $1.51 million

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- February 13, 2022

Wow, wow, wow, talk about a "makeover." She's gorgeous. Ms Alicia Malone

Wow, I've been watching TCM for quite some time but not much in the past few weeks. 
Today, the line-up is incredible. I may not watch the Super Bowl. LOL. I know I won't watch the first two quarters. 
But back to the original point I was going to make. 
Ms Malone is an Australian presenter on TCM. She always seemed a bit "less than she could have been or could be." 
And, wow, was I correct. Sometime between the last time I saw her and today she has had a huge makeover. She's gorgeous. I am truly impressed. I think even her Aussie accent has changed a bit, for the better. Not quite as grating. I love her hair. Amazing. And, I know this is inappropriate and sexist but she has trimmed down also. I attribute that to an athletic lifestyle which is neither inappropriate nor sexist. 

This is so cool. I was stationed at RAF Mildenhall / RAF Lakenheath (sister bases northeast of London) many years ago. While stationed there I continued my hobby of acquiring Märklin model trains. There was a British gentleman who published small magazines regarding Märklin. I don't recall if he also sold the model trains. He also published a glossy magazine featuring American and British aircraft. He built his house right outside the RAF Mildenhall fence line right at the end of runway on Pollards Lane. When I went out to visit him, it was obvious he knew more about the missions coming in and out of RAF Mildenhall than I did. He had his high-power binoculars and his camera right outside his huge picture window. 

In the map below: note Pollards Lane, the private home, the fence line and the RC-135 / Rivet Joint on taxiway at end of runway:

Zoom out a little:

Ukraine, Sunday, February 13, 2022

Updates

Later, 7:10 p.m. CT: a USAF refueling a/c, a KC-135T Stratotanker, has just departed RAF Mildenhall. Wow. The RAF Mildenhall tarmac must be full of US a/c with multiple takeoffs every hour. The Brits must be loving. The Brits have three hobbies: plants, pets, and, planes.

Later, 6:11 p.m. CT: yet another USAF C-17 just entered airspace along Polish - Ukraine border. Over the entire country of Poland, right now, literally 1/7 of all tracked a/c are USAF military.

Later, 6:01 p.m. CT: this is interesting. An RAF C-17 departed Kiev in far east Ukraine and flew to and landed at Lviv in far west Ukraine. Evacuating Ukrainians from Kiev? That would be my first guess.

Later, 5:53 p.m. CT: two USAF B-52s in trail now flying southeast over English Channel. Chief-One-One and Chief-One-Two. This would be a good day to watch Dr Strangelove if not interested in the Super Bowl.

Later, 4:24 p.m. CT: another Global Hawk drone has just entered Ukraine airspace from the south.

Later, 4:20 p.m. CT: another USAF C-17 is flying over Krakow headed towards Ukraine.

Later, 2:11 p.m. CT: from two days ago, US B-52s have arrived in Europe, RAF Fairford, UK.

Later, 2:08 p.m. CT: Russian news agency, TASS, is also providing updates

Later, 1:54 p.m. CT: this RC-135 -- River Joint -- is already unimportant to track but I'm curious where it lands. It is headed west, now over the English Channel, directly west of Norwich / Thetford / Bury St Edmunds. Jake-One-Two at 4,000 feet just west of RAF Mildenhall, 2:17 p.m.CT. Landed at RAF Mildenhall at 2:25 p.m. CT.

Later, 1:40 p.m. CT: another huge passenger plane has just departed RAF Brize Norton, see below. It's an Airbus. It's now over the English Channel. Again, link from a reader. The Airbus A400M:  

With the completion of this key milestone, the A400M excels in its paratrooping role, being able to carry 116 paratroopers who can jump two at a time from the ramp in freefall, or through the paratroop side doors with automatic parachute opening, a state-of-the-art capability that greatly increments its operational -- from 2002.

Note: RAF Upper Heyford, an important USAF base during the Cold War is about 30 miles northeast of Brize Norton. See below.

Original Post
Sunday February 13, 2022 -- 1:40 p.m. CT

It appears a USAF C-17, having taken off from a British air station some hours ago is about to land at Kiev. Link here.  Currently at 2,000', heading due south, directly east of Kiev. Interestingly, a commercial passenger plane, having originated in Hungary, is following the C-17 track, trailing back a few miles.

The C-17 took off from Brize Norton, UK:

RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire is the largest RAF Station with approximately 5,800 Service Personnel, 1,200 contractors and 300 civilian staff. 

The Station is home to the RAF's Strategic and Tactical Air Transport (AT) and Air-to-Air Refuelling (AAR) forces, as well as host to many lodger and reserve units. 

With its mixed fleet of aircraft, RAF Brize Norton provides rapid global mobility in support of UK overseas operations and exercises, as well as AAR support for fast jet aircraft both on operations and in support of UK Homeland Defence.

Later, 1:12 p.m. CT, the USAF C-17 has landed at Boryspil (Ukraine) International Airport. Likewise, that Hungarian a/c has also just landed at same airport, both within minutes of each other.

Now: another USAF C-17 headed toward Ukraine border over Poland appears to be making a 180° turn heading away from border. The C-17 is designed to airdrop 102 paratroopers and their equipment. 3,500 paratroopers / 102 per C-17 sortie = 35 sorties. The airdrops appears to have begun yesterday or the day before.

Meanwhile, Jake-One-Two, RC-135, Rivet Joint, is now returning home, over Germany, headed west, having completed several passes over the Ukraine earlier. Boryspil: eighteen miles east of Kiev; Ukraine's largest airport, serving 65% of its passenger air traffic, including all its intercontinental flights and a majority of international flights.

Most USAF Activity I've Seen Re: Ukraine In A Long Time; Chipotle -- February 13, 2022

Note: facts and opinions/comments interspersed. It may be difficult to tell the difference. This is for my benefit. If this is important to you, go to original sources

Break, break: it appears a USAF C-17, having taken off from a British air station some hours ago is about to land at Kiev. Link here.  Currently at 2,000', heading due south, directly east of Kiev. Interestingly, a commercial passenger plane, having originated in Hungary, is following the C-17 track, trailing back a few miles.

The C-17 took off from Brize Norton, UK:

RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire is the largest RAF Station with approximately 5,800 Service Personnel, 1,200 contractors and 300 civilian staff. 

The Station is home to the RAF's Strategic and Tactical Air Transport (AT) and Air-to-Air Refuelling (AAR) forces, as well as host to many lodger and reserve units. 

With its mixed fleet of aircraft, RAF Brize Norton provides rapid global mobility in support of UK overseas operations and exercises, as well as AAR support for fast jet aircraft both on operations and in support of UK Homeland Defence.

Later, 1:12 p.m. CT, the USAF C-17 has landed at Boryspil (Ukraine) International Airport. Likewise, that Hungarian a/c has also just landed at same airport, both within minutes of each other.

Now: another USAF C-17 headed toward Ukraine border over Poland appears to be making a 180° turn heading away from border. The C-17 is designed to airdrop 102 paratroopers and their equipment. 3,500 paratroopers / 102 per C-17 sortie = 35 sorties. The airdrops appears to have begun yesterday or the day before.

Meanwhile, Jake-One-Two, RC-135, Rivet Joint, is now returning home, over Germany, headed west, having completed several passes over the Ukraine earlier. Boryspil: eighteen miles east of Kiev; Ukraine's largest airport, serving 65% of its passenger air traffic, including all its intercontinental flights and a majority of international flights.

Now, back to regular programming.

My wife alerted me to this story, Chipotle says it can grow from its 3,000 current restaurants to 7,000.

My wife is not a fan of Chipotle and I've only visited two or three times. Last week, my wife and Olivia -- the high school granddaughter soccer player -- stopped at Chipotle's on the way home to get a post-game snack for Olivia. I told them not to bring me anything but Olivia insisted and she got me a burrito. 

For those who have not visited a Chipotle restaurant, their portions are huge. I can only eat a fourth of any one burrito at any one sitting. Today, about a week later, I'm having the third of the four portions. Re-heated, and just as good as the first day.

A chicken burrito can be had for $6.50, January, 2022, pricing. A retired couple can share one burrito and have a meal, and have some left over.

Chipotle, box score:


McDonald's, box score
:

Tracking Shale Production -- SeekingAlpha News Editor -- February 13, 2022

Link here.

But higher prices have not led to higher production guidance across the board. Having spent ~$10b on BHP's shale assets in 2018, BP appears to be pivoting away from the shale basins. During the company's Q4 earnings call, CEO Looney said BP "will run lower-48 for dividends." 

Whiting, a mid-cap Bakken operator, recently announced plans to increase capex 55% in 2022, but will only see 3% production growth during the year. And that after two material asset acquisitions.

Oasis recently released plans for 2022, showing the company increasing capex 74% only to see production fall year on year.

During Q4 results, Conoco's CEO Lance indicated the macro environment was "fragile" and referenced US shale supply growth in saying "if you're not worried about it, you should be."

So what should investors expect from US E&P earnings this week, with Continental, Devon, Marathon  and others set to provide production guidance?

For those with quality assets and plenty of drilling inventory, the 5% comments from Pioneer appear more like a production growth floor than a ceiling. As the IEA's "highest on the street" 1.2mb/d supply growth forecast looks more and more realistic.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The blog's target audience is mom-and-pop mineral owners in the Bakken.  

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Valentines: Pairing Chocolate With Wine

These are the chocolates, link here.

Our temporary -- very temporary -- collection:

And tulips:

And memories, ten years ago:

Mexico: Production In Terminal Decline -- February 13, 2022

Link here.


Meanwhile, President Putin quietly brings his $100-million-Hamburg-Germany-moored yacht back to Russia. Link here. See the yacht here (link provided by a reader, thank you).

And, meanwhile, down at your local Lego store, link here.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 13, 2022

The wells:

  • 38148, conf,CLR, Flint Chips FIU 13-5H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 38147, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 12-5H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 37798, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 342-3BH, Fertile Valley, no production data, 
  • 37797, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3410-2BH, Bar Butte, no production data. 
  • 34062, conf, Enerplus, Recluse 149-92-32C-29H-TF1, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2021161958314
11-20211755110646
10-20212179113603
9-20212349413341
8-2021162976646
  • 38146, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 11-5H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 34063, conf, Enerplus, Orbweaver 149-92-32C-29H, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2021181099296
11-20212699016379
10-20213951324690
9-20212468014015
8-2021178287271
  • 38384, conf, Petro-Hunt, Murphy 162-100-4B-9-2H, West Ambrose,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2021127956048
11-2021172597542
10-20210671
  • 37796, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3409-1BH, Hanks, no production data, 
  • 37334, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20211818718285
11-20211703023358
10-20211549917643
9-20211713019965
8-20211852216571
  • 34064, conf, Enerplus, Trapdoor 149-92-32-29H-TF1, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2021136416999
11-2021155129410
10-20211899511854
9-202173474172
8-2021157166410
  • 34067, conf, Enerplus, Cobweb 149-92-32D-29H, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2021114665873
11-2021134148130
10-20211618110083
9-2021166219438
8-2021201988237
  • 34065, conf, Enerplus, Tarantula 149-92-32C-29H, Heart Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20212079710666
11-20212527615330
10-20213325420753
9-20212495714172
8-20212725711116
  • 36581, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20211411240038
11-20211616137704
10-20211895238012
9-20211793933908
8-20214600
  • 36580, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20212867975249
11-20212898767538
10-20213422970634
9-20212785954724
8-202111520

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 13, 2022

Monday, February 21, 2022: 40 for the month, 95 for the quarter, 95 for the year
38148, conf,CLR, Flint Chips FIU 13-5H1,

Sunday, February 20, 2022: 39 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 94 for the year
38147, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 12-5H, 
37798, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 342-3BH,
37797, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3410-2BH,

Saturday, February 19, 2022: 36 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 91 for the year
34062, conf, Enerplus, Recluse 149-92-32C-29H-TF1,

Friday, February 18, 2022: 35 for the month, 90 for the quarter, 90 for the year
38288, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 34-1SWD,
38146, conf, CLR, Flint Chips Federal 11-5H1,

Thursday, February 17, 2022: 34 for the month, 89 for the quarter, 89 for the year
34063, conf, Enerplus, Orbweaver 149-92-32C-29H,

Wednesday, February 16, 2022: 33 for the month, 88 for the quarter, 88 for the year
38384, conf, Petro-Hunt, Murphy 162-100-4B-9-2H,

Tuesday, February 15, 2022: 32 for the month, 87 for the quarter, 87 for the year
37796, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3409-1BH,
37334, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2,
34064, conf, Enerplus, Trapdoor 149-92-32-29H-TF1,

Monday, February 14, 2022: 29 for the month, 84 for the quarter, 84 for the year
34067, conf, Enerplus, Cobweb 149-92-32D-29H,
34065, conf, Enerplus, Tarantula 149-92-32C-29H,

Sunday, February 13, 2022: 27 for the month, 82 for the quarter, 82 for the year
36581, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1,

Saturday, February 12, 2022: 26 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year
36580, conf, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL,

And So It Begins -- Another Day, Another Dollar -- At Just 3%, Coal Supplies 72x Wind's Contribution -- ISO NE -- February 13, 2022

Breakfast today: coffee and angel food cake. 

ISO NE, link here:

  • paltry 14K MW demand
  • pricing 7th decile; >$200 / MW
  • fuel mix:
    • back to using coal: 3%
    • renewables: 7%; 812 MW
    • wind: 10% of that 7% = 0.7%; 6 MW
    • nuclear: maxed; at 3.3K MW; or 30%
    • natural gas: 53%
  • let's see, coal:wind
    • coal: 3% of 14,475 = 434 MW
    • wind, 6MW
    • coal:wind -- 72:1

Angus bull sales report: link here.

  • Schaff, St Anthony, ND: yet to report; sale yesterday;
    • last year's record, Schaff: $275,000
  • Ellingson Angus, St Anthony, ND, this year:
    • looks like the one to beat
    • registered bulls, average: $12,407
    • top bull: $175,000
  • most auctions across the country, top bull: $10,000 to $30,000
  • the all-time record, link here:
    • Schaff, St Anthony, ND
    • February 9, 2019
    • $1.51 million

Ukraine:

  • Jake-One-Two: most tracked a/c right now; flying over Ukraine for past several hours; link here;
  • RCH190: second most tracked a/c right now; USAF C-17 from upstate New York to Ukraine; over Poland now; headed to Poland - Ukraine border; will be interesting to see if the USAF C-17 crosses into Ukraine; link here; 9:54 a.m. CT, Sunday, February 13, 2022.
    • turned off its transponder as it approached Ukraine airspace, heading 135°

For the archives, I forgot to post this two days ago, link here

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Southern Belles Dancing

The oldest sister watching her two younger sisters.