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Thursday, December 16, 2021

Reason #36 Why I Love To Blog -- December 16, 2021

One of the best "accounts" on Twitter broke this story yesterday. No one else seemed to have paid attention. I then posted that on the blog, and again, no one seemed to notice, but now, here it is, over at oilprice.

I was fascinated by the fact that just the other day SecEnergy was telling US oil operators to "drill, drill, drill." Or was it, "drill, baby, drill."

It seemed so out of character. The price of gasoline at the pump had actually been decreasing at the time she made that statement, and yet she implored the US oil operators get the rig count up.

She had to have been briefed on something that caught her attention.

And this is probably it. Her own agency probably briefed her on it earlier in the month: early data suggests US crude oil demand was soon to hit all-time records.

And here it is. Now before you read this, remember, Delta CEO today was incredibly upbeat, says his business is surging and just now, on twitter, someone noted that once the airlines are back, another two million bopd will be needed, and US shale won't be adequate (here, hold my beer). 

Well, think what you want. Connect your own dots. Here's the story.

The price of WTI crude rose nearly 2% on Thursday on EIA reports that U.S. implied petroleum products demand had risen to record heights.

U.S. implied petroleum products demand rose to 23.191 million bpd for week ending December 10, 2021. The previous record was set during week ending August 27 of this year (2021), which reached fresh highs of 22.820 million bpd.

The increase in demand for petroleum products inspired fresh optimism in the market, as uncertainty in the markets faded after the Federal Reserve’s announcement.

Perhaps this is the reason SecEnergy didn't have the answer to that question the other week ... "US crude oil daily demand..." Perhaps demand was rising too fast for her to have an  "accurate" number, that she could honestly say "she did not have that number in front of her." LOL. 

Idle chatter, rambling.

But the record, apparently, is real. 

MRO Permits In The Bailey Oil Field For Calendar Year 2021 To Date -- December 16, 2021

Disclaimer: In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. Projections are my own. It may be hard to separate NDIC data from my data.

The NDIC says their data is accurate through July 14, 2021.

For the calendar year, 2021, to date, MRO had 49 new permits in Bailey oil field. They are all listed below. 

Of the 240 permits/file numbers associated with Bailey oil field, through July 14, 2021:

  • all are MRO permits:
  • two are TA;
  • eleven are PNC:
  • three are PA;
  • seven are NC (DUCs);
  • fourteen are LOC;
  • ten are IA;
  • fifteen were DRL;
  • one was AB;
  • the rest are A;
  • this does not include the new permits since July 14, 2021. For now one can assume the new permits since July 14, 2021, are LOC (permits only).

January 21, 2021

38083

MRO

Baish USA 21-4TFH

DUN

Bailey

January 21, 2021

38084

MRO

Opal USA 21-4H

DUN

Bailey

January 21, 2021

38085

MRO

Delores USA 21-4TFH

DUN

Bailey

January 21, 2021

38086

MRO

Seidler USA 31-4H

DUN

Bailey

January 21, 2021

38087

MRO

Weidner USA 31-4TFH

DUN

Bailey

April 1, 2021

38231

MRO

WR Connolly 31-14H

DUN

Bailey

April 1, 2021

38232

MRO

Frieda 31-14TFH

DUN

Bailey

April 1, 2021

38233

MRO

Sebastian 21-14TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 13, 2021

38304

MRO

Goth 44-11TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 13, 2021

38305

MRO

Stein 14-12H

DUN

Bailey

May 13, 2021

38306

MRO

Ebert 14-12TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 13, 2021

38307

MRO

Emiley 14-12H

DUN

Bailey

May 13, 2021

38308

MRO

Jarman 24-12TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 17, 2021

38311

MRO

Gene 44-23TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 17, 2021

38312

MRO

Emmet 44-23H

DUN

Bailey

May 17, 2021

38313

MRO

Mastel 14-24TFH

DUN

Bailey

May 17, 2021

38314

MRO

Cameron 14-24H

DUN

Bailey

May 17, 2021

38315

MRO

Ferdinand 14-24TFH

DUN

Bailey

August 3, 2021

38448

MRO

Rustad 44-9H

DUN

Bailey

August 3, 2021

38449

MRO

Augusta 41-16H

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38501

MRO

Audrey 34-10H

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38502

MRO

Odermann 24-10TFH

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38503

MRO

Rice 14-10TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38536

MRO

Woodrow 31-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38537

MRO

Porter 31-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38538

MRO

Annabelle 21-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38539

MRO

Eliza 21-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38571

MRO

Ermina 31-13TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38572

MRO

ITHAMAR 41-13TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38573

MRO

AUSTIN 11-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38574

MRO

BEAU 11-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 28, 2021

38587

MRO

Cody 11-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38589

MRO

Amos 31-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38590

MRO

Cheryl 41-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38591

MRO

Stone 44-7TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38592

MRO

Killion 44-7H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38593

MRO

Weekes 14-8TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 19, 2021

38619

MRO

Wilma 41-16TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 19, 2021

38620

MRO

Greenshields 11-15H

DUN

Bailey

October 20, 2021

38621

MRO

Fallstrom 14-20TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38623

MRO

Rossol 24-31H

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38624

MRO

Tarpy 24-31TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38625

MRO

Ludwig 14-31TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 18, 2021

38663

MRO

State Randie 44-36H

DUN

Bailey

November 18, 2021

38665

MRO

State Melman 34-36TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 23, 2021

38672

MRO

State Sword 44-36TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 24, 2021

38679

MRO

Walker 14-31H

DUN

Bailey

December 15, 2021

38702

MRO

Claude 14-20H

DUN

Bailey

December 15, 2021

38703

MRO

Vernon 44-19TFH

DUN

Bailey

Since July 14, 2021, the last date for which NDIC data is said to be accurate, MRO added the following 31 permits:

August 3, 2021

38448

MRO

Rustad 44-9H

DUN

Bailey

August 3, 2021

38449

MRO

Augusta 41-16H

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38501

MRO

Audrey 34-10H

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38502

MRO

Odermann 24-10TFH

DUN

Bailey

August 20, 2021

38503

MRO

Rice 14-10TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38536

MRO

Woodrow 31-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38537

MRO

Porter 31-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38538

MRO

Annabelle 21-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 3, 2021

38539

MRO

Eliza 21-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38571

MRO

Ermina 31-13TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38572

MRO

ITHAMAR 41-13TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38573

MRO

AUSTIN 11-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 21, 2021

38574

MRO

BEAU 11-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 28, 2021

38587

MRO

Cody 11-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38589

MRO

Amos 31-18TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38590

MRO

Cheryl 41-18H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38591

MRO

Stone 44-7TFH

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38592

MRO

Killion 44-7H

DUN

Bailey

September 29, 2021

38593

MRO

Weekes 14-8TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 19, 2021

38619

MRO

Wilma 41-16TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 19, 2021

38620

MRO

Greenshields 11-15H

DUN

Bailey

October 20, 2021

38621

MRO

Fallstrom 14-20TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38623

MRO

Rossol 24-31H

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38624

MRO

Tarpy 24-31TFH

DUN

Bailey

October 25, 2021

38625

MRO

Ludwig 14-31TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 18, 2021

38663

MRO

State Randie 44-36H

DUN

Bailey

November 18, 2021

38665

MRO

State Melman 34-36TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 23, 2021

38672

MRO

State Sword 44-36TFH

DUN

Bailey

November 24, 2021

38679

MRO

Walker 14-31H

DUN

Bailey

December 15, 2021

38702

MRO

Claude 14-20H

DUN

Bailey

December 15, 2021

38703

MRO

Vernon 44-19TFH

DUN

Bailey

 
In Bailey oil field, there are eight rows of sections
. From the northernmost row to the southernmost row, the number of sections in each row:

  • 8
  • 20
  • 22
  • 20
  • 10
  • 6
  • 11
  • 10

... for a total of 107 sections, or, if the standard drilling unit is two sections, 54 drilling units.

In addition, there will be approximately 25 overlapping 2560-acre units. 

In each 1280-acre (two-section) drilling unit, eventually,

  • a minimum of twenty-four wells; or,
  • 24 x 54 = 1,296 wells

In each 2560-acre overlapping unit, a minimum of two wells eventually:

  • 25 x 2 = 50

So, conservatively, 1350 wells in Bailey oil field, but only if:

  • oil is in demand;
  • remains economical to drill;

And it will be decades of drilling, if that were to occur. 

This doesn't mean that there will be 1,350 wells producing at one time; they will come and go over the years.