1. First group "financial / economic" indicators:
2. AAPL market cap -- $2.872 billion.
Devon Energy Corp.’s rank-and-file workers are in for a surprise holiday treat: $10,000 bonus checks.
In the latest sign that boom times are back for the U.S. oil patch, Devon told its 1,600 employees on Tuesday that workers below the vice president level will be getting the unexpected cash, CEO Rick Muncrief said in an interview. The bonuses are a reward for successfully integrating with WPX Energy Inc. after the companies agreed to merge last year, Muncrief said.
I keep forgetting that all the Devon shares I own came from years of accumulating WPX. Pretty funny.
And I got WPX from a WMB spin-off years before that.
I wonder what comes next.
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How OPEC+ Regained Control Of The Oil Markets
During Brandon's Watch
Summary:
Major SPR releases weren't from just major oil importers -- the US led the campaign to release crude oil from the SPRs. The new Covid variant was a one-week story. So far.
From the linked article:
Last week’s decision from the alliance may have brought down a notch or two the tension with the U.S. Administration, but it also reminded the U.S. shale patch who is in charge of the oil market, just as American oil producers are drafting their capital budgets for 2022.
U.S. oil firms are set to increase production next year, but they may not spend too much on new drilling activity, with oil slipping to $70 from $80 a barrel in just a few days and Omicron still creating uncertainty about demand.
Mind the gap: link here.
The estimated copper shortfall by 2030 looks even worse.
AMD / XLNX acquisition: one more milestone reached.
King of LNG: US to beat Qatar at its own game: link to Tsvetana Paraskova. A reader said as much just a couple of days ago. EIA forecast for el fin de 2022:
WTI: continues to creep up; up 31 cents today; now at $72.36.
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Back to the Bakken
Flaring targets: link here.
Active rigs:
| $72.36 | 12/8/2021 | 12/08/2020 | 12/08/2019 | 12/08/2018 | 12/08/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 29 | 16 | 55 | 64 | 53 |
Four new permits, #38690 - #38693, inclusive:
Thirteen permits renewed;
Producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 12691 | 12759 | 7666 | 23962 | 23518 | 327 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 22121 | 22222 | 11506 | 42310 | 39242 | 2940 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 24329 | 24236 | 15192 | 39010 | 36797 | 2083 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 31 | 27754 | 27696 | 15422 | 41713 | 39972 | 1598 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 23704 | 23719 | 15459 | 34100 | 33263 | 713 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 31 | 23760 | 23809 | 17612 | 36695 | 35129 | 1436 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 19607 | 19625 | 17074 | 28578 | 28468 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 10468 | 10271 | 7367 | 14644 | 14569 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 8707 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Remember when we thought Hess could never get a great Bakken well. That's all changed. Actually that changed some years go. Hess is now drilling some nice Bakken wells. Exhibit A, look at the IP:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 5370 | 5369 | 3875 | 20417 | 20286 | 131 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 5954 | 5979 | 4358 | 19662 | 19535 | 127 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 7472 | 7458 | 7075 | 25910 | 24837 | 1073 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 28 | 7393 | 7354 | 5704 | 26245 | 24936 | 1309 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 19 | 5094 | 5132 | 3864 | 16450 | 16398 | 52 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 31 | 8768 | 8760 | 6862 | 26605 | 25437 | 1168 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 9305 | 9274 | 6561 | 25798 | 24157 | 1641 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 9448 | 9415 | 6160 | 28973 | 27016 | 1957 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 26 | 6395 | 6453 | 4218 | 14881 | 13528 | 1353 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 12620 | 12612 | 7248 | 31564 | 28741 | 2823 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 29 | 9577 | 9713 | 5641 | 30483 | 27483 | 3000 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 30 | 20139 | 20147 | 42592 | 38761 | 34315 | 4446 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2020 | 31 | 27414 | 27216 | 77161 | 46624 | 41331 | 5293 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2020 | 6 | 4337 | 4538 | 14419 | 8812 | 7415 | 1397 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2020 | 31 | 32927 | 32903 | 69969 | 45468 | 39222 | 6246 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2020 | 31 | 31988 | 31956 | 72387 | 55152 | 46685 | 8467 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2020 | 30 | 30208 | 30252 | 69644 | 49219 | 41920 | 7299 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2020 | 16 | 39465 | 39241 | 17574 | 44043 | 37074 | 6969 |
Preliminary note.
The wells:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 3 | 2083 | 2636 | 2052 | 1407 | 1311 | 81 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 20039 | 19900 | 17874 | 13261 | 10958 | 2154 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 23275 | 23330 | 23424 | 15157 | 9236 | 5766 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 28 | 23946 | 24071 | 20234 | 15470 | 2665 | 12666 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 20 | 8584 | 8061 | 15760 | 5601 | 2560 | 2940 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 12 | 10493 | 10321 | 5012 | 6847 | 4688 | 2097 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 10539 | 10509 | 4171 | 15362 | 15207 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 29 | 12026 | 12553 | 4766 | 14067 | 11557 | 2365 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 28 | 15212 | 14891 | 7152 | 16707 | 14375 | 2191 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 22 | 15363 | 15537 | 8842 | 15438 | 12670 | 2659 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 30 | 22209 | 22696 | 15827 | 20866 | 12166 | 8550 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 25481 | 25007 | 16489 | 23932 | 5248 | 18544 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 19 | 23142 | 22949 | 15082 | 21891 | 0 | 21795 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 2 | 159 | 879 | 0 | 136 | 0 | 126 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 16 | 20889 | 19506 | 13399 | 19778 | 0 | 19698 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1. European inflation, link here.
2. Are we ready for Bakken 4.5? Stay tuned.
3. First group "financial / economic" indicators:
4. VIX:
The CLR Kennedy-Miles wells are tracked here.
The well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 12538 | 12620 | 13448 | 31318 | 30202 | 739 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 24185 | 24095 | 15740 | 52887 | 52010 | 539 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 23356 | 23426 | 18118 | 67102 | 66777 | 36 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 31 | 26808 | 26810 | 14338 | 55177 | 54773 | 119 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 30 | 30984 | 31051 | 15759 | 57200 | 56825 | 122 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 6 | 10347 | 10098 | 5729 | 18395 | 18256 | 139 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 3 | 383 | 383 | 0 | 606 | 0 | 606 |
As long as we're here, here's another well on that pad / section:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 25063 | 25064 | 12326 | 51867 | 50261 | 1229 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 28572 | 28527 | 15901 | 54584 | 53690 | 556 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 40765 | 40814 | 17386 | 63943 | 63620 | 34 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 31 | 36043 | 35965 | 17319 | 62644 | 62215 | 135 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 23 | 27835 | 27672 | 12647 | 44456 | 44168 | 95 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 3 | 101 | 101 | 0 | 132 | 0 | 132 |
FAQs are "tabbed" at the top of the blog. That link will take you to the first page of FAQs. I've had to start a second page.
FAQ 79:
79. What was the best Bakken well ever drilled? As of August 6, 2016, it was an EOG Riverview well, file #30286.
Some months ago, I quit updating record-setting Bakken wells. There were just too many.
For example, any of the MRO wells at this link would have qualified at one time, but now they are just some of many such wells.
Likewise FAQ 9:
9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? Note: as of November 13, 2018, FAQ #9 will be updated at this post.
I won't be updating this very often either.
The chief's most famous words: "I will fight no more, forever."
That's exactly how I feel about renewable energy. I'm all in and investing accordingly. LOL. It's an open book test.
Chief Joseph's famous line.Uttered in the movie by an actor named Ned Romero 😀.Anyway, I don't know any of the Nez Perce language ... but, the first word I'd like to learn is "hypocrisy." [mic’yóox̣omtx will work for me.]By the way - here's a photo of a lithium mine. There are people that protest Canadian oil sands mining - but this is ok. It's for batteries, so it's clean. Spare me.Anybody want to bet against me? I've got $100 that says that battery will be target practice before the end of 2025.I guess I should make it $20. Nobody would take my last standing bet. I would have bet anybody that the Covid vaccines weren't going to be anything above 50% effective by the end of the year. Couldn't get anybody to bet $100 against me. So - I've learned my lesson.... We'll set this bet at $20.
WTI: up 35 cents after EIA report released.
Fertilizer:
Time to google: Fertilizer Manufacturing Industry in the US -- Market Research Report, updated November 30, 2021. Link here. Most of it is behind a paywall, but the subject lines will take you were you need to go.
We should start seeing articles on this issue as we come to the end of the year: inherited IRAs and the SECURE ACT of 2020.
It appears much confusion reigns because the IRS had the information wrong in the publication addressing this issue when it was released back in 2020, and it has not been corrected in a revised 2021 publication. Instead, the IRS issued a letter "clarifying" the issue but apparently there remains some confusion.
Part of the confusion is purposely being generated by the IRS. It's clearly an entertaining story. I'm not going to say more at this time until I hear back from three different tax preparers. I'm sure we will get at least two different opinions.
One screen shot but have fun, google irs rmd clarifies mistake 10-year rule.
Now, back to that COP dividend story.
Backstory: COP recently made headlines that it would return more cash to its investors, or something to that effect.
So, I was surprised when I saw this over at Marketbeat.com:
The Marketbeat.com robot has a nasty habit of doing this; I've been "tricked" more than once.
Here's the story.
COP generally pays a quarterly dividend early in the following months, from nasdaq.com:
Now the "fishy" part.
On December 6, 2021, completely off-schedule, COP declares a "special" / "variable" dividend of 20 cents/share with a record date of January 3, 2021; and a pay date of January 14, 2020.
The marketbeat.com robot saw that 20 cents and noted it was a decrease from the previously declared / paid 46 cents.
So, it turns out that within days of COP announcing that it will increase shareholder return, COP does just that by declaring a "special" / "variable" dividend which was almost half of its regular dividend.
It was reported that COP may have as many as eight dividends yearly for the next year or so. One would assume the regular dividend would be paid in the usual months, and in addition a smaller dividend would be paid in four "off" months.
So much more could be said, but I will leave it at that.
Omicron? Virus burning itself out. ala Spanish Flu? Whatever. Pfizer booster handles the variant just fine. Sort of like how seasonal flu is handled. Annual "seasonal flu" shot. PFE up slightly (very slightly) in early morning trading.
Omigoodness: I just returned from the grocery store where I get potatoes, Spam, and Covid shots. I went in to get my Pfizer booster. No waiting, no appointment necessary, just walk-in. But I was early. I'm not "eligible" until December 19, 2021, to get the booster. That tells me everything I need to know about the seriousness of Covid-19 omicron. LOL.
From the Los Angeles Times: not saying this would happen in Texas, but my hunch is not as likely -- it's not as if the families didn't have enough time ...
Thousands of L.A. Unified students have not shown proof of vaccination About 34,000 students have yet to comply with the COVID-19 vaccine mandate in the Los Angeles Unified School District — and there’s no longer enough time for students to get the first shot and complete their required inoculation by the January 10, 2022, start of the second semester.
This will probably force the nation’s second-largest school system into some difficult decisions. Students who are not fully vaccinated — or exempt — will be forced into the district’s independent study program or will have to leave the Los Angeles public school system. Shifting 34,000 students 12 and older into independent study would be challenging. And who would teach these students?
The 34,000 total, by itself, would make up one of the 25 largest school systems among about 1,000 districts in California. There’s no current indication, however, that L.A. Unified is backing down.
Chips to watch: XLNX, AMD. Link here.
Another one I missed: Trupanion (TRUP). Not related to The Don.
Kellogg: strike over?
Global warming:
Smack-down: but no one will read it or hear about it.
COP: misleading dividend announcement by MarketBeat.com
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: last year at this time, we were down to sixteen active rigs in North Dakota; now, we're back to 32. The definitive rig report currently shows 29 active rigs but that's because some rigs are in the process of moving to new sites.
Active rigs:
| $71.72 | 12/8/2021 | 12/08/2020 | 12/08/2019 | 12/08/2018 | 12/08/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 29 | 16 | 55 | 64 | 53 |
No wells coming off confidential list today.
RBN Energy: Very low- and no-carbon alternatives to old-school bunker fuels, part 2.
International shipowners need to significantly reduce their carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030 and will come under pressure to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Given that the industry currently depends almost entirely on fossil fuels for ship propulsion — and that every zero- or near-zero-carbon alternative faces serious headwinds — it won’t be an easy or low-cost transition. One pathway would be expanding the use of LNG as a bunker fuel in the near term and then shifting to alternatives like bio-LNG and synthetic LNG as they become more commercially available and economic. Another would be to use “green” or “blue” hydrogen, ammonia, or methanol. But there are challenges to each, not the least of which are the small volumes of non-traditional fuels being produced — and their high cost — and the need for new infrastructure both to produce and distribute them, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog.
This is the second blog in our series on efforts to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the shipping industry, which accounts for about 3% of global GHGs. Previously, we looked at the push by leading international shipping associations and many large shipowners to have the International Maritime Organization (IMO) ratchet up the industry’s decarbonization goals. In effect, shipowners — themselves under pressure from their large, ESG-minded customers, shareholders, and lenders — are telling the IMO that its goals of reducing global shipping’s carbon intensity (CI) by 40% from its 2008 level by 2030 and total GHG emissions by 50% by 2050 are far too timid. They want the IMO to set a more aggressive CI-reduction target for 2030 as well as a goal of eliminating or fully offsetting GHG emissions by mid-century.
Further, a long list of international shipping associations — including the International Chamber of Shipping, Intercargo, and the World Shipping Council — has been pressing for the creation of a $5 billion research-and-development fund to accelerate the advancement and introduction of zero-emission technologies and fuels for maritime transport. If approved, the IMO-administered fund would be financed by a proposed $2-per-metric-ton ($2/MT) levy on all marine-fuel sales. There also have been a number of proposals — by countries, shipping organizations, and individual companies — to implement a levy on shipping companies for each metric ton of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) their fleets emit.
