Steady Eddy; Not Unexpected; This Murex Well Just Went Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- December 4, 2021

The well:

• 16930, 1,407, Murex, Rick Clair 25-36H, Stanley, t3/08; cum 600K 10/21;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1168	1217	57	3043	2630	10
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	1127	1337	27	2749	2052	320
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1186	1016	83	3148	2661	84
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1284	1379	33	1743	1340	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1367	1288	75	2842	2346	106
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	1625	2055	97	2812	2409	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1339	1063	260	2939	2377	172
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1013	1496	103	2597	2185	9
BAKKEN	2-2021	25	1036	1119	438	2357	1594	438
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	938	1312	160	3010	2550	70
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	1223	1131	98	403	0	0

No Surprise But This Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Just Went Over 800K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- December 4, 2021

The well, first drilled back in 2007, recently had a huge jump in production:

• 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 673K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 12/20; two days in 7/20; significant decline beginning 4/20; cum 805K 10/21; see this post;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	21389	21309	10358	32733	20284	7206
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	22350	22367	11434	34031	20144	8703
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	23235	23138	14148	35925	20308	9981
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	25157	25367	17918	40228	18741	15300
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	13371	13188	14062	20318	12757	5327
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	14470	14523	16716	18182	13202	3630
BAKKEN	4-2021	25	11514	11390	19738	17500	7562	9764
BAKKEN	3-2021	1	85	0	2851	313	0	313
BAKKEN	2-2021	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	1	7	210	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	1	104	0	12	184	0	177
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	138	0	38	12	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	240	479	19	125	0	125
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	140	0	30	66	0	66
BAKKEN	5-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2020	28	900	1059	348	391	0	196
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	1452	1403	626	2803	0	2593

Back To Black -- December 4, 2021

Quick! According to the WHO, how many people have died of the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron?

• <less than 0.1% of those infected; or,
• ~ 0.1% of those infected; or,
• ~ 0.15% of those infected; or,
• somewhere between 0.15% and 0.2%
  

Answer to be provided in a later post if I don't forget.

For investors: an open-book test and it isn't rocket science. My understanding: one or two of the US vaccines remain the vaccines of choice. 

I don't think shortages will occur, although it could be close. But if Brandon really wants to get folks vaccinated, all he has to do is announce that due to high demand, there may be shortages of the vaccine after the first of the year. 

***********************************
Back to Black

Back To Black, Amy Winehouse

Schwab - TD-Ameritrade Integration Update -- December 4, 2021

Just a few miles down the road from where I live is Schwab's largest campus. At least I think it is. Someone can fact check me on it. Perhaps the one in San Francisco is larger. Link here. 

A mile closer is/was a brand new TD-Ameritrade campus that was nearing completion or perhaps completed when it was announced that Schwab would be acquiring TD-Ameritrade. That was two or three years ago. 

Where does the merger stand now?

Several links.

We'll start here, data points:

• announced in 2019
• $26 billion deal
• mid-2020: approval of the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice
• apparently, process of training staff began in 2021
• the actual moving of client accounts will take place in last six months of 2023
• The "conversion":
• will require that thousands of financial advisors move from TD's custody platform to Schwab's
• roughly 20,000 RIA's in the wealth management space
• manage about $4 trillion in client assets
• the RIA market, 80% controlled by:
• Schwab Advisor Services, TD Ameritrade Institutional, Fidelity and Pershing

Wealthmanagement, June 7, 2021, has same information. 

Financial cost of integration, Schwab and TD-Ameritrade, link here: about a half-billion dollars more than expected; now estimated to be around $2 billion to $2.2 billion. Original estimate: $1.6 billion for the integration.

Largest mergers of the last 20 years, link to 247wallstreet: the list provides the top 100. Schwab / Ameritrade barely makes the list, coming in at 99. It's a pain to go through the list with all the advertisements, but it's manageable. 

Money market funds managed by, link here, around $5 trillion:

• Fidelity, $0.9 trillion; 18% of total
• JP Morgan, $0.5 trillion; 9% of total
• Vanguard, $0.5 trillion; 9% of total
• Blackrock, $0.5 trillion, 10%
• Goldman Sachs, $0.4 trillion, 8%
• Federated, $0.3 trillion, 7%
• Dreyfus, $0.2 trillion, 5%
• Schwab $0.1 trillion, 3%
• Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, State Street, Northern Trust, Investco, half a dozen others.

My hunch: Schwab moves headquarters from San Francisco to Ft Worth, Texas, in 2025.

Does It Really Matter Through Which Lens We View Energy Any More? December 4, 2021

A reader sent me an interesting energy article from the current issue of Foreign Affairs, January/February 2022. . The writers at the linked article look at the curent global energy picture through the lens of global warming; atmospheric CO2; and, renewable energy. 

However, if one reads the article through the lens of US energy dominance one reads a completely different story. 

I haven't read the article closely; I've scanned through it and read it more closely later. But I'm beginning to wonder: perhaps it no longer matter through what lens we read these types of articles. 

For Europe, their Plan A, now that they have shut down their nuclear plants and coal mines, is renewable energy. Europe and the UK have no Plan B, although the UK is talking about hydrogen power. But to my hydrogen, takes a lot of electricity. 

For America, we have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and so on. 

From December 2, 2021, just two days ago: "The US to become energy dominant ...."

Bottom line: no matter how you view it, or through which lens you are watching, the energy gap between the US and Europe is going to keep widening. 

By the way, it's interesting to see that we said the same thing back in 2013 -- eight year ago.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #34 -- December 4, 2021

The CLR Harrisburg wells are tracked here. 

I assume a lot of folks from Williston and Watford City have inherited minerals from wells on Indian Hill. This is an old, old field. 

Earlier this week, based on a request from a reader some months ago (or maybe a year ago), I went back to look at Indian Hill -- a completely random choice for doing something. 

There was a subtle indication that there had been some recent activity. I sent a note to that reader along that line, but suggesting we might not see anything official for six months to a year, just because the wells might remain on confidential status and because of the NDIC IT problems.

But there it is, today:

• 37659, 1,267, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill,
  
• 37660, 1,380, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  
• 37661, 1,429, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data, 

The reader was notified of this about a week ago, and today it's being reported!  Pure serendipity.

Daily Activity Report -- December 3, 2021

Note: for mom-and-pop mineral owners, the three most important data bases:

• the monthly NDIC hearing dockets;
• the daily activity report; and,
• the definitive rig report.

The NDIC has a major problem with its IT department. It began several months ago. No one really knows how far back the problem goes, but according to the NDIC it goes back to at least July, 2021. Several readers correspond with me regularly about the problem, and a few of them have talked with the NDIC, asking when the problem will be fixed. The answer has been the same for the past two months: the problem will be fixed "soon." Some are hoping for the problem to be fixed by the end of the year.  

The NDIC IT problem forced me to look at different ways to find data for individual mineral owners, and in the big scheme of things the NDIC IT problem has probably been a "good" thing for me. I've had to work harder to sort things out. It resulted in a much better way for me to manage the blog. But it sure is frustrating.

Daily activity report for Friday, December 3, 2021. Link here.  

The definitive rig report for December 3, 2021, is posted here. 

Active rigs: 

$66.26	12/4/2021	12/04/2020	12/04/2019	12/04/2018	12/04/2017
Active Rigs	32	15	56	64	53

No new permits.

Two permits renewed:

• 20119, XTO, GBU Janice 31X-2F, Grinnell, look at the "age" of that permit; and, the field; this is an important one to note.
• 27156, MRO, Regina USA 14-10H, Wolf Bay -- again, look how old that permit is. And look at the field: Wolf Bay. I didn't even remember where that field was located, but this, too, is a biggie. I'll post a stand-alone post on Wolf Bay later.

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: this is one of the largest number of DUCs reported completed in one day in a long time, maybe "ever":

• 31551, 255, Petro-Hunt, the scout ticket shows this well as TA, an NDIC IT problem; Russ 13-9HS, West Ambrose, 11/12/19;
  
• 37787, 4,119, MRO, Watterberg USA 41-5TFH, Reunion Bay, more on this one later;
  
• 37659, 1,267, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill,
  
• 37660, 1,380, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  
• 37661, 1,429, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data,
  
• 36790, 1,929, Sinclair, Harris Federal 5-32H, no production; more on this one later.
  
• 36103, 1,885, CLR,

The Definitive Rig Report -- December 3, 2021

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. I don't even know if the numbers add up. But it is still the best summary out there with regard to the Bakken and remains, the definitive rig report. But if this information is important for you, go to the source. 

Summary of changes or things that caught my eye(s):

• the format of the chart may change without notice; today the list is order by rig number, ascending:
• there were sixteen changes from yesterday:
• no new rigs have been added
• one rig has fallen off the list: T&S Drilling 1
• this takes Summit Carbon Solutions off the list and knocks Slawson down to one rig, again, as reported by the NDIC;
• five rigs have moved to new locations:
• True Oil moved its True Drilling 39
• MRO moved its Nabors X10 rig
• MRO also moved its H&P 259 rig
• Koda does not have an active now that Cyclone 35 has moved to Bowline's Missouri W site
• Whiting moved its Patterson 808 to a new location
• eleven line items were removed from the previous day
• CLR with nine operating rigs
• Kraken with no operating rigs

The spreadsheet:

December 3, 2021	Rig	Start Date	#	Operator	Well Name	File #
Unchanged	Nabors B		1	CLR	Thorp Federal 7-28H1	38517
Off	T&S Drilling	11/23/21	1	Summit Carbon Solutions	Archie Erickson 2	38622
Off	T&S Drilling	11/23/21	1	Slawson	Lightning Federal 4-24-13TFH	38577
Unchanged	AES		4	CLR	Bang 12-4H	38609
Unchanged	Nabors B		6	CLR	Whitman FIU 12-34H2	38532
Off	Nabors X		10	MRO	Phillip 41-1TFH	37997
New	Nabors X		10	MRO	Konstantin 11-3h	37994
Unchanged	Nabors B		13	Oasis	Soto 5097 12-3 4B	38335
Unchanged	Nabors B		18	Iron Oil Operating	Antelope 4-17-20H	38460
Unchanged	Nabors B		21	Crescent Point	CPEUSC Pankake 4-6-7-157N-99W-MBH	38555
Off	Nabors X	12/2/21	24	Hess	EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-1	30259
Unchanged	Nabors X	11/18/21	24	Hess	CA-E Burdick-LE-155-95-29H-1	38002
Unchanged	Nabors B		26	Oasis	Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B	38525
Unchanged	Nabors B		27	CLR	Charolais South Federal 7-10H2	37905
Unchanged	Nabors X		27	Hess	BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-5	36642
Off	Nabors X	11/16/21	28	Hess	EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1	38397
Unchanged	Nabors X	11/28/21	28	Hess	EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-2	38398
Off	Cyclone	11/10/21	35	Koda	Stout 3410-2BH	37797
New	Cyclone	11/30/21	35	Bowline	Missouri W 152-103-4-9-7H	37942
Unchanged	Cyclone		38	CLR	Whitman FIU 6-34H2	38500
New	True Drilling		39	True Oil, LLC	Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27A	38575
Off	True Drilling		39	True Oil, LLC	Northern State 31-36	37495
Unchanged	True.		40	Enerplus	Minnow 149-94-36C-25H	36991
Unchanged	Iron Hand		108	Eagle Operating	Willy Miranda-State 16-4	38630
Off	H&P		259	MRO	Weekes 14-8TFH	38593
New	H&P 259		259	MRO	Stone 44-7TFH	38591
Off	Patterson		276	CLR	Springfield FIU 8-8H1	38362
Unchanged	Unit		414	Slawson	Machete Federal 1 SLH	38458
Unchanged	H&P		454	CLR	Flint Chips Federal 16-5HSL	38151
Unchanged	H&P		456	CLR	LCU Ralph 10-27H1X	38657
Off	H&P	11/10/21	492	CLR	LCU Ralph 4-27H	37013
Unchanged	H&P	11/24/21	492	CLR	LCU Ralph 3-27H1	37014
Unchanged	H&P		515	Petro-Hunt	Mongoose 149-103-8D-5-2H	28832
Unchanged	H&P		516	Ovintiv	Wisness State 152-96-16-21-21H	38525
Unchanged	H&P		535	MRO	Austin 11-18H	38573
Unchanged	H&P		640	Hunt	Halliday 145-93-15-22H 3	38535
Unchanged	Patterson		806	Whiting	Miller 31-15H	37413
Off	Patterson		808	Whiting	Kannianen 11-5-2HU	38521
New	Patterson		808	Whiting	Kannianen 11-5HU	38411
Unchanged	Patterson		811	Grayson Mill	Jay 24-13F XE 1H	38611
Unchanged	Patterson		901	CLR	Rolf Federal 8-17H1	39298