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Saturday, December 4, 2021

Steady Eddy; Not Unexpected; This Murex Well Just Went Over 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- December 4, 2021

The well:

  • 16930, 1,407, Murex, Rick Clair 25-36H, Stanley, t3/08; cum 600K 10/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213111681217573043263010
BAKKEN9-202129112713372727492052320
BAKKEN8-20213111861016833148266184
BAKKEN7-2021311284137933174313400
BAKKEN6-202130136712887528422346106
BAKKEN5-2021311625205597281224090
BAKKEN4-2021301339106326029392377172
BAKKEN3-20213110131496103259721859
BAKKEN2-2021251036111943823571594438
BAKKEN1-20213193813121603010255070
BAKKEN12-202031122311319840300

No Surprise But This Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Just Went Over 800K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- December 4, 2021

The well, first drilled back in 2007, recently had a huge jump in production:

  • 16424, 700, Petro-Hunt, USA 11B-2-2H, Charlson, t7/07; cum 673K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 12/20; two days in 7/20; significant decline beginning 4/20; cum 805K 10/21; see this post;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20213121389213091035832733202847206
BAKKEN9-20213022350223671143434031201448703
BAKKEN8-20213123235231381414835925203089981
BAKKEN7-202131251572536717918402281874115300
BAKKEN6-20213013371131881406220318127575327
BAKKEN5-20213114470145231671618182132023630
BAKKEN4-2021251151411390197381750075629764
BAKKEN3-2021185028513130313
BAKKEN2-20211800000
BAKKEN1-2021172100000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-202011040121840177
BAKKEN8-202021380381200
BAKKEN7-20202240479191250125
BAKKEN6-2020114003066066
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202890010593483910196
BAKKEN3-20203114521403626280302593

Back To Black -- December 4, 2021

Quick! According to the WHO, how many people have died of the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron?

  • <less than 0.1% of those infected; or,
  • ~ 0.1% of those infected; or,
  • ~ 0.15% of those infected; or,
  • somewhere between 0.15% and 0.2%

Answer to be provided in a later post if I don't forget.

For investors: an open-book test and it isn't rocket science. My understanding: one or two of the US vaccines remain the vaccines of choice. 


I don't think shortages will occur, although it could be close. But if Brandon really wants to get folks vaccinated, all he has to do is announce that due to high demand, there may be shortages of the vaccine after the first of the year. 

***********************************
Back to Black

Back To Black, Amy Winehouse

Schwab - TD-Ameritrade Integration Update -- December 4, 2021

Just a few miles down the road from where I live is Schwab's largest campus. At least I think it is. Someone can fact check me on it. Perhaps the one in San Francisco is larger. Link here

A mile closer is/was a brand new TD-Ameritrade campus that was nearing completion or perhaps completed when it was announced that Schwab would be acquiring TD-Ameritrade. That was two or three years ago. 

Where does the merger stand now?

Several links.

We'll start here, data points:

  • announced in 2019
  • $26 billion deal
  • mid-2020: approval of the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice
  • apparently, process of training staff began in 2021
  • the actual moving of client accounts will take place in last six months of 2023
  • The "conversion":
  • will require that thousands of financial advisors move from TD's custody platform to Schwab's
  • roughly 20,000 RIA's in the wealth management space
  • manage about $4 trillion in client assets
  • the RIA market, 80% controlled by:
  • Schwab Advisor Services, TD Ameritrade Institutional, Fidelity and Pershing

Wealthmanagement, June 7, 2021, has same information. 

Financial cost of integration, Schwab and TD-Ameritrade, link here: about a half-billion dollars more than expected; now estimated to be around $2 billion to $2.2 billion. Original estimate: $1.6 billion for the integration.

Largest mergers of the last 20 years, link to 247wallstreet: the list provides the top 100. Schwab / Ameritrade barely makes the list, coming in at 99. It's a pain to go through the list with all the advertisements, but it's manageable. 

Money market funds managed by, link here, around $5 trillion:

  • Fidelity, $0.9 trillion; 18% of total
  • JP Morgan, $0.5 trillion; 9% of total
  • Vanguard, $0.5 trillion; 9% of total
  • Blackrock, $0.5 trillion, 10%
  • Goldman Sachs, $0.4 trillion, 8%
  • Federated, $0.3 trillion, 7%
  • Dreyfus, $0.2 trillion, 5%
  • Schwab $0.1 trillion, 3%
  • Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, State Street, Northern Trust, Investco, half a dozen others.

My hunch: Schwab moves headquarters from San Francisco to Ft Worth, Texas, in 2025.

Does It Really Matter Through Which Lens We View Energy Any More? December 4, 2021

A reader sent me an interesting energy article from the current issue of Foreign Affairs, January/February 2022. . The writers at the linked article look at the curent global energy picture through the lens of global warming; atmospheric CO2; and, renewable energy. 

However, if one reads the article through the lens of US energy dominance one reads a completely different story. 

I haven't read the article closely; I've scanned through it and read it more closely later. But I'm beginning to wonder: perhaps it no longer matter through what lens we read these types of articles. 

For Europe, their Plan A, now that they have shut down their nuclear plants and coal mines, is renewable energy. Europe and the UK have no Plan B, although the UK is talking about hydrogen power. But to my hydrogen, takes a lot of electricity. 

For America, we have Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, and so on. 

From December 2, 2021, just two days ago: "The US to become energy dominant ...."

Bottom line: no matter how you view it, or through which lens you are watching, the energy gap between the US and Europe is going to keep widening. 

By the way, it's interesting to see that we said the same thing back in 2013 -- eight year ago.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #34 -- December 4, 2021

The CLR Harrisburg wells are tracked here

I assume a lot of folks from Williston and Watford City have inherited minerals from wells on Indian Hill. This is an old, old field. 

Earlier this week, based on a request from a reader some months ago (or maybe a year ago), I went back to look at Indian Hill -- a completely random choice for doing something. 

There was a subtle indication that there had been some recent activity. I sent a note to that reader along that line, but suggesting we might not see anything official for six months to a year, just because the wells might remain on confidential status and because of the NDIC IT problems.

But there it is, today:

  • 37659, 1,267, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill,
  • 37660, 1,380, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 37661, 1,429, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data, 

The reader was notified of this about a week ago, and today it's being reported!  Pure serendipity.

Daily Activity Report -- December 3, 2021

Note: for mom-and-pop mineral owners, the three most important data bases:

  • the monthly NDIC hearing dockets;
  • the daily activity report; and,
  • the definitive rig report.

The NDIC has a major problem with its IT department. It began several months ago. No one really knows how far back the problem goes, but according to the NDIC it goes back to at least July, 2021. Several readers correspond with me regularly about the problem, and a few of them have talked with the NDIC, asking when the problem will be fixed. The answer has been the same for the past two months: the problem will be fixed "soon." Some are hoping for the problem to be fixed by the end of the year.  

The NDIC IT problem forced me to look at different ways to find data for individual mineral owners, and in the big scheme of things the NDIC IT problem has probably been a "good" thing for me. I've had to work harder to sort things out. It resulted in a much better way for me to manage the blog. But it sure is frustrating.

Daily activity report for Friday, December 3, 2021. Link here.  

The definitive rig report for December 3, 2021, is posted here

Active rigs

$66.26
12/4/202112/04/202012/04/201912/04/201812/04/2017
Active Rigs3215566453

No new permits.

Two permits renewed:

  • 20119, XTO, GBU Janice 31X-2F, Grinnell, look at the "age" of that permit; and, the field; this is an important one to note.
  • 27156, MRO, Regina USA 14-10H, Wolf Bay -- again, look how old that permit is. And look at the field: Wolf Bay. I didn't even remember where that field was located, but this, too, is a biggie. I'll post a stand-alone post on Wolf Bay later.

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: this is one of the largest number of DUCs reported completed in one day in a long time, maybe "ever":

  • 31551, 255, Petro-Hunt, the scout ticket shows this well as TA, an NDIC IT problem; Russ 13-9HS, West Ambrose, 11/12/19;
  • 37787, 4,119, MRO, Watterberg USA 41-5TFH, Reunion Bay, more on this one later;
  • 37659, 1,267, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill,
  • 37660, 1,380, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 37661, 1,429, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 36790, 1,929, Sinclair, Harris Federal 5-32H, no production; more on this one later.
  • 36103, 1,885, CLR,

The Definitive Rig Report -- December 3, 2021

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. I don't even know if the numbers add up. But it is still the best summary out there with regard to the Bakken and remains, the definitive rig report. But if this information is important for you, go to the source. 

Summary of changes or things that caught my eye(s):

  • the format of the chart may change without notice; today the list is order by rig number, ascending:
  • there were sixteen changes from yesterday:
    • no new rigs have been added
    • one rig has fallen off the list: T&S Drilling 1
      • this takes Summit Carbon Solutions off the list and knocks Slawson down to one rig, again, as reported by the NDIC;
    • five rigs have moved to new locations:
      • True Oil moved its True Drilling 39
      • MRO moved its Nabors X10 rig
      • MRO also moved its H&P 259 rig
      • Koda does not have an active now that Cyclone 35 has moved to Bowline's Missouri W site
      • Whiting moved its Patterson 808 to a new location
    • eleven line items were removed from the previous day
  • CLR with nine operating rigs
  • Kraken with no operating rigs

The spreadsheet:

December 3, 2021

Rig

Start Date

#

Operator

Well Name

File #

Unchanged

Nabors B 


1

CLR

Thorp Federal 7-28H1

38517

Off

T&S Drilling

11/23/21

1

Summit Carbon Solutions

Archie Erickson 2

38622

Off

T&S Drilling

11/23/21

1

Slawson

Lightning Federal 4-24-13TFH

38577

Unchanged

AES


4

CLR

Bang 12-4H

38609

Unchanged

Nabors B 


6

CLR

Whitman FIU 12-34H2

38532

Off

Nabors X


10

MRO

Phillip 41-1TFH

37997

New

Nabors X


10

MRO

Konstantin 11-3h

37994

Unchanged

Nabors B


13

Oasis

Soto 5097 12-3 4B

38335

Unchanged

Nabors B


18

Iron Oil Operating

Antelope 4-17-20H

38460

Unchanged

Nabors B


21

Crescent Point

CPEUSC Pankake 4-6-7-157N-99W-MBH

38555

Off

Nabors X

12/2/21

24

Hess

EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-1

30259

Unchanged

Nabors X

11/18/21

24

Hess

CA-E Burdick-LE-155-95-29H-1

38002

Unchanged

Nabors B


26

Oasis

Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B

38525

Unchanged

Nabors B  


27

CLR

 Charolais South Federal 7-10H2

37905

Unchanged

Nabors X


27

Hess

BL-S Ramberg-155-95-0601H-5

36642

Off

Nabors X

11/16/21

28

Hess

EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1

38397

Unchanged

Nabors X

11/28/21

28

Hess

EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-2

38398

Off

Cyclone

11/10/21

35

Koda

Stout 3410-2BH

37797

New

Cyclone

11/30/21

35

Bowline

Missouri W 152-103-4-9-7H

37942

Unchanged

Cyclone


38

CLR

Whitman FIU 6-34H2

38500

New

True Drilling


39

True Oil, LLC

Red Wing Creek Unit 32-27A

38575

Off

True Drilling


39

True Oil, LLC

Northern State 31-36

37495

Unchanged

True.


40

Enerplus

Minnow 149-94-36C-25H

36991

Unchanged

Iron Hand


108

Eagle Operating

Willy Miranda-State 16-4

38630

Off

H&P


259

MRO

Weekes 14-8TFH

38593

New

H&P 259


259

MRO

Stone 44-7TFH

38591

Off

Patterson


276

CLR

Springfield FIU 8-8H1

38362

Unchanged

Unit


414

Slawson

Machete Federal 1 SLH

38458

Unchanged

H&P


454

CLR

Flint Chips Federal 16-5HSL

38151

Unchanged

H&P


456

CLR

LCU Ralph 10-27H1X

38657

Off

H&P  

11/10/21

492

CLR

LCU Ralph 4-27H

37013

Unchanged

H&P  

11/24/21

492

CLR

LCU Ralph 3-27H1

37014

Unchanged

H&P 


515

Petro-Hunt

Mongoose 149-103-8D-5-2H

28832

Unchanged

H&P 


516

Ovintiv

Wisness State 152-96-16-21-21H

38525

Unchanged

H&P


535

MRO

Austin 11-18H

38573

Unchanged

H&P 


640

Hunt

Halliday 145-93-15-22H 3

38535

Unchanged

Patterson


806

Whiting

Miller 31-15H

37413

Off

Patterson 


808

Whiting

Kannianen 11-5-2HU

38521

New

Patterson 


808

Whiting

Kannianen 11-5HU

38411

Unchanged

Patterson


811

Grayson Mill

Jay 24-13F XE 1H

38611

Unchanged

Patterson 


901

CLR

Rolf Federal 8-17H1

39298