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Sunday, September 12, 2021

Tomorrow, Monday, We'll Take A Look At #19255 -- Off The Net -- Good Luck To All -- September 12, 2021

With another tropical storm bearing down on Texas, WTI has apparently traded over $70 this evening.

Off the net.

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The Californians

Link here.

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"Focus On Fracking" -- September 12, 2021

Link here.

The lede:

Natural gas prices at a 7 1/2 year high; US crude supplies at a 23 month low, gasoline supplies at a 22 month low.

Natural gas prices are surging; one wonders what's in store for crude oil:

  • pundits have suggested there's been a "deficit" in production for quite some time;
  • OPEC+ and US shale operators have hesitated to "open" the spigots
  • we're getting ready to see China start importing more crude oil
  • gasoline demand last week set a record
  • >65% of the Gulf of Mexico is still shut in
  • the strength of the dollar has been in a trading range for quite some time
  • the global economy is slowly but surely coming out of the pandemic

Remind me of this tweet ...  link here. 

You know, this is quite interesting ... for those paying attention, we've been here before. Let's just say, oil goes to three-figures/bbl. What happens next? Hint: we've been here before: windfall profits tax.

Europe's energy crunch: it's just beginning folks. It's barely autumn. Groningen is closing. Russia won't be able to keep up even if it wanted to. Link here.

Lead story over at The WSJ tomorrow: natural-gas market conditions look unnatural. Storage levels of the fuel look rather thin globally, while prices have surged. A cold winter in parts of the world could send prices even higher. Link here. 

I'm beginning to think that the February, 2021, "Texas Freeze," was a wake-up call. Europe didn't answer the phone. 

October 31, 2021: that's the date the headlines scream -- Arctic blast. Natural gas critical. A reader told me to post that.

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Enerplus Winter Fur Pad

Locator: 10001ERFWINTERFUR

Updates

April 24, 2022: four more winter fur pad wells are coming off confidential list this next week.

April 22, 2022: initial production reported for four more winter fur pad wells. Huge wells.

April 17, 2022: three winter fur pad wells coming off confidential list this next week. 

April 3, 2022: initial production being reported.

January 22, 2022: wells drilled to depth; fracked; and, already producing, see this note for frack data and early production data; moderate-to-large fracks; big wells;

September 12, 2021: Enerplus drilling these wells, September, 2021.

The Wells 

These eight permits were announced July 20, 2020.

The wells:

  • 37721, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Ermine 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 243K 3/23;
  • 37722, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Sable 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 264K 3/23;
  • 37723, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Lynx 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 256K 3/23;
  • 37724, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Beaver 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 286K 3/23;
  • 37725, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Marten 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 329K 3/23;
  • 37726, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Otter 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 345K 3/23;
  • 37727, ros (9/21)-->conf, Enerplus, Weasel 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; cum 250K 3/23;
  • 37728, drl-->conf, Enerplus, Seal 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21;

The graphic:

Well of interest:

  • 23177, 648, Enerplus, Coyote 15194-33DH TF, Antelope-Sanish, one section, t1/13; cum 210K 7/21; cum 229K 3/23;
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The New Mexico Chile -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Except Both Are Hot -- September 12, 2021

A reader reminds me -- it's "Hatch chile season." Whoo-hoo.

From wiki:

New Mexico chile or New Mexican chile is a cultivar group of the chile pepper from the US state of New Mexico, first grown by Pueblo and Hispano communities throughout Santa Fe de Nuevo México. 
These heritage chile plants were used to develop the modern New Mexico chile peppers by horticulturist Dr. Fabián García and his students, including Dr. Roy Nakayama, at what is now New Mexico State University in 1894. 
New Mexico chile, which typically grows from a green to a ripened red, is popular in the cuisine of the Southwestern United States, the broader Mexican cuisine, and Sonoran and Arizona cuisine, and an integral staple of New Mexican cuisine. 
Chile is one of New Mexico's state vegetables, and is referenced in the New Mexico state question "Red or Green?".

Hatch chile is a label for New Mexico chile grown in the Hatch Valley, in and around Hatch, New Mexico. It is an important crop to New Mexico's economy and culture, and it is sold worldwide including Europe, Australia, and Japan.

New Mexico green chile flavor has been described as lightly pungent similar to an onion, or like garlic with a subtly sweet, spicy, crisp, and smoky taste.[14] The ripened red retains the flavor, but adds an earthiness and bite while aging mellows the front-heat and delivers more of a back-heat. The spiciness depends on the variety of New Mexico chile pepper.

It looks like a "Hatch" pepper is more specific than "bourbon." Although named after "Bourbon County," bourbon can be produced anywhere in the United States. But it sounds like "Hatch peppers" are limited to one small locality. 

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Sunday Morning Coming Down

A Norman Rockwell moment:


The twins in Oregon.
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The MRO Little Owl Pad -- L-M-2P-O

The MRO Little Owl pad:

  • 37770, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 185K 2/22;
  • 37771, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 206K 2/22;
  • 37772, conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 173K 2/22;
  • 37773 conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO,  Perry USA 41-6TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 290K 2/22;
  • 37774 conf-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 254K 2/21;
Early Production:
  • 37774, Odell USA: 30,258 over 9 days extrapolates to 100,860 bbls over 30 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022281218012145735422195216910
BAKKEN1-202231142251425285902148820838116
BAKKEN12-2021312150621658937140478396010
BAKKEN11-20213040990411871777173115715740
BAKKEN10-202131757677569827953100685980940
BAKKEN9-2021295895558754280926851466278446
BAKKEN8-2021930258299541629933968305131715
BAKKEN7-20212001571290129

37773, Perry USA:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022281191012017876019299188320
BAKKEN1-2022312404523989211604765146393244
BAKKEN12-20213126703268492043556878557420
BAKKEN11-20213046158462452328185870840980
BAKKEN10-20213167554677084209094279919380
BAKKEN9-2021297773477433631328730384475467
BAKKEN8-2021133634535980342353990137261548
BAKKEN7-2021200559059

  • 37772, Little Owl:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222817646175731822840554397380
BAKKEN1-2022311894018932186903888437819251
BAKKEN12-20213124459243772116652216511760
BAKKEN11-20213018888188842384228061273810
BAKKEN10-20213122376224432903128728279690
BAKKEN9-2021292762427816339463447133516122
BAKKEN8-20212142716422875735851891479881434
BAKKEN7-2021200163000
  • 37771, Plenty Horns USA:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022281132911343613224131236270
BAKKEN1-202231164741649678333225731391174
BAKKEN12-20213124058240531140940257393110
BAKKEN11-20213026826268211342439233382700
BAKKEN10-20213131919319271641440340392620
BAKKEN9-2021292915529570233583450733433177
BAKKEN8-20212966166655015178074352693411199
BAKKEN7-2021200163000
  • 37770, Mabel USA:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222816473164021076431780310810
BAKKEN1-2022311753317517112663170530833162
BAKKEN12-20213121815217462225138941380710
BAKKEN11-20213017309173072350525659250350
BAKKEN10-20213120734207752877926560258570
BAKKEN9-2021292309323575295072780926990113
BAKKEN8-20213067697670175587882579771791484
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Two Petrogulf Wells Go Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- September 12, 2021

The wells:

  • 28523, 1,572, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-4HTF, Antelope-Sanish, t12/14; cum 509K 7/21;
  • 25949, 1,367, Petrogulf, Sandstrom 151-94-2HTF, Antelope-Sanish, t12/13; cum 570K 7/21;

See this link.

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US Crude Oil -- Days Supply -- September 12, 2021

US gasoline consumption sets record: record-high US oil demand. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

  • Gasoline inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels for the period, compared with a draw of 1.3 million bpd for the previous week. 
  • In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 3.1 million barrels for the week to September 3, a larger decline compared to the 1.7 million barrels draw for the previous week.
  • Finished motor gasoline supplied in the week to September 3 rose to 9.608 million barrels per day, up from 9.578 million bpd for the previous week. 
  • On a four-week average, implied gasoline demand in the U.S. stood at 9.523 million bpd, up by 8.9 percent compared to the 8.742-million-bpd four-week average demand for those weeks in 2020 (a lousy year to compare; better to compare with 2019).
  • Four-week average jet fuel demand was up by 65.3 percent compared to last year, to 1.622 million bpd. Distillate demand was up by 11.2 percent to 4.126 million bpd.

Trending toward 2018? Link here. Much could be said about this graphic, but the big takeaway for me is the delta between 2020 and 2021. Think about this: Resident Biden killed the Keystone XL. The #2 US supplier for imported oil: Russia.

Shell in the GofM, link here:

  • Shell's Mars, Ursa and Olympus assets remain shut in;
  • damage assessments continue at Shell's West Delta-143 offshore facility
  • Shell is working to understand the full extent of the damage

Link here for spreadsheet below.

Week

Days Supply

Change w/w

Mar 21 week 1

40.5

8.00%

Mar 21 week 2

41.8

3.21%

Mar 21 week 3

40.2

-3.83%

Mar 21 week 4

36.4

-9.45%

Apr 21 week 1

34.5

-5.22%

Apr 21 week 2

33.1

-4.06%

Apr 21 week 3

33.0

-0.30%

Apr 21 week 4

32.9

-0.30%

Apr 21 week 5

32.3

-1.82%

May 21 week 1

32.3

0.00%

May 21 week 2

32.2

-0.31%

May 21 week 3

32.0

-0.62%

May 21 week 4

31.4

-1.88%

Jun 21 week 1

30.6

-2.55%

June 21 week 2

29.6

-3.27%

June 21 week 3

28.7

-3.04%

June 28 week 4

28.0

-2.44%

July 2 week 1

27.5

-1.79%

July 9  week 2

27.1

-1.45%

July 16 week 3

27.3

0.74%

July 23 week 4

27.2

-0.37%

July 30 week 5

27.5

1.10%

Aug 6 week 1

27.4

-0.36%

August 13 week 2

27.2

-0.73%

August 20 week 3

27.0

-0.74%

August 27 week 4

26.5

-1.85%

Sep 3 week 1

27.2

2.64%
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Update On The MRO Copeland Pad -- C-E-2H-O -- Reunion Bay -- September 12, 2021

This page won't be updated.

This pad is tracked here.

This well came off the confidential list on Thursday, June 10, 2021:

  • 37674, drl/NC, MRO, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, fracked, 6/2/21 - 6/13/21; a relatively moderate frack, 6.7 million gallons of water; 56% fresh water by mass; 30% produced water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2021200499566385169
BAKKEN6-20211700183000

There are four other wells on that pad, and they all have the same production production, and are on same status, drl/NC.

The other four wells:

  • 37677, drl/NC, MRO, Ortman .. TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37676, drl/NC, MRO, Copeland .. H, Reunion Bay,
  • 37675, drl/NC, MRO, Etherington .. TFH, Reunion Bay,
  • 37674, above
  • 37673, drl/NC, MRO, Herman ... TFH, Reunion Bay,

Just to the west of that pad, sited in the same section, but a different drilling unit, these interesting wells, two separate pads:

  • 25948, 2,088, Petrogulf, Sandstrom 151-94-1H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/13; cum 472K 7/21;
  • 25949, 1,367, Petrogulf, Sandstrom 151-94-2HTF, Antelope-Sanish, t12/13; cum 570K 7/21;
  • 28522, 2,106, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-3H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/14; cum 377K 7/21;
  • 28523, 1,572, Petrogulf, Three Tribes 151-94-4HTF, Antelope-Sanish, t12/14; cum 509K 7/21;


  • 21502, 1,656, MRO, Jahnke USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, t4/12; cum 438K 4/21; off line 4/21;
  • 21503, IA/1,628, MRO, Jahnke USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, t5/12; cum 480K 4/21; off line 4/21;
at No comments:

The Bakken: Five Rigs In One Screenshot -- September 12, 2021

Teaser: there is something very, very interesting in the data on this page. It's possible there are previous examples in the Bakken, but this is the first time I've seen this "phenomenon." I will post that observation in a stand-alone post later.  Hint: it concerns the Goth pad. [Finally, November 7, 2021, I remembered to provide the observation. See this post.]

Disclaimer: this post was done quickly and not proofread. There will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

The CLR Candee wells are tracked here. 

Two new Candee wells are coming off the confidential list this week:

  • 38153, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data;
  • 38154, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data;

In the graphics below a rig sits on each of several pads.

The graphics: 


CLR pad:

  • 19968, 757, CLR, Pletan 2-18H, Jim Creek, t8/11; cum 413K 7/21;
  • 38395, conf, CLR, Pletan 8-18HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38396, ros, CLR, Dvirnak 10-7HSL1, Corral Creek, no production data,
  • 38320, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 11-7H, Jim Creek, no production data,

CLR pad:

  • 38266, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 12-7HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38267, conf, CLR, Pletan 12-18HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38269, ros, CLR, Jensen 9-8H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38270, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 9-17H1L, Chimney Butte, no production data,

Candee/Kukla pad:

  • 38249, conf, CLR, Candee 9-9HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38250, conf, CLR, Candee 10-9H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38251, ros, CLR, Kukla 8-16HSL, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,

As of 9/12/21, file reports still available:

  • 38233, ros, MRO, Sebastian 21-14TFH, Bailey,
  • 38232, drl, MRO, Frieda 31-14TFH, Bailey,
  • 38231, drl, MRO, WR Connolly 31-14H, Bailey, we will have to wait for the narrative to see about the "WR";
  • 16187, PA/428, MRO, Connolly 24-14H, Bailey, t9/06; cum 189K 5/21;

[No rig on this pad, but just to the north, this pad:

  • 33437, 3,115, MRO, Tipton 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 245K 7/21;
  • 33436, 4,491, MRO, Gifford 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 265K 7/21;
  • 33435, 4,538, MRO, Hugo 34-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum 268K 7/21;
  • 33443, 34,152, MRO, Marlene 34-11TFH, Bailey, t6/18; cum 271K 7/21,]

As of 9/12/21, file reports still available:

  • 38304, loc, MRO, Goth 44-11H, Bailey,
    • 2560-acre spacing; sections 1/2/11/12-146-94;
  • 38305, ros, MRO, Stein 14-12TFH, Bailey,
  • 38306, loc, MRO, Ebert 14-12H, Bailey, 283 FSL, 681 FWL,
    • 1280-acre; sections 1/12-146-94;
  • 38307, drl, MRO, Emiley 14-12TFH, Bailey,
  • 38308, loc, MRO, Jarman 24-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL 681 FWL,
    • 1280-acre; sections 1/12-146-94;
at No comments:

NDIC Reports But A Handful Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- The Report May Or May Not Be Accurate --September 12, 2021

This is hardly worth the effort. The NDIC IT issue makes this meaningless. NDIC says only a  handful of wells are coming off confidential list this next week. I'll post the data but it's meaningless; we will have to wait until the daily activity reports are posted to get the real story. 

So, with that caveat, here goes.

Monday, September 20, 2021: 27 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 218 for the year:
38153, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL,

Sunday, September 19, 2021: 26 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 217 for the year:
38154, conf, CLR, Candee 12-9HSL1,

Saturday, September 18, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
None.

Friday, September 17, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
None.

Thursday, September 16, 2021: 25 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 216 for the year:
38156, conf, CLR, Kukla 10-16HSL1,

Wednesday, September 15, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, September 14, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:
None.

Monday, September 13, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:
None.

Sunday, September 12, 2021: 24 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 215 for the year:
37887, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-14-23-158N-100W-MBH,

Saturday, September 11, 2021: 23 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 214 for the year:
37886, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Sylven 2-11-2-158N-100W-MBH,

at No comments:

Sunday Morning Coming Down -- Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- September 12, 2021

North Dakota story on "front page" of The Wall Street Journal. Grandson restores the 1918 Ford Model T his grandfather assembled by hand a century ago.

  • nearly forty years after he last saw his family's iconic car, Leon K. Humbel tracked it down in rural North Dakota;
  • one cannot even imagine how poor my paternal grandparents were, trying to make a living in western South Dakota in the 1930s, and yet they were able to afford a used Model A
  • I've never even asked where the nearest gasoline outlet might have been near where they were living

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Weekend Sports

NFL: i just turned on Hulu ... wow, it's NFL everywhere ... and the games don't start for another hour or so. 

College football: amazing how many games were airing yesterday. Stadiums full and no one wearing masks. 

NASCAR: Truex wins again. Saw bits and pieces of the race. 

Covid is so over: 

  • stadiums:
    • Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TX: 102,000
    • Bryant Denny Stadium, AL: 101,000
  • best Fauci could say: "Not a good idea." Didn't call any of these events "super-spread events."
  • my hunch: Fauci is a reason for folks to switch networks when he comes on. And networks don't like folks switching networks.

***********************
North Dakota

Beautiful Badlands: this site just seems to get better and better.

  • the Missouri River hills at Watford City -- link here;
  • Lake Sakakawea -- link here;
  • 180 miles long
  • 1,530 miles of public shoreline: the US Army Corps of Engineers owns the immediate shoreline, and makes it 100% publicly available
  • largest manmade lake in North American
  • ferries at ghost town Banks on the Tobacco Garden Creek eventually disappeared after a bridge across the river at Williston was built

**************************
Energy

UK: EV chargers will be programmed to be turned off for ten hours each day, including from 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. The National Grid simply doesn't have the power.

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Technology

Smartwatches: the new classroom nuisance. Link to The Wall Street Journal.

  • Did anyone see this coming? 
  • Sometimes I wonder about Julie Jargon. LOL. Geico Rock nominee. I assume high school students figured this out five years ago. Or it was a slow news day. 
  • Or maybe Julie wanted to take our minds off the judge's ruling on the App Store. If so, it didnt' work.

*************************
Investing

KMI or ENB? Link at SeekingAlpha. Too close to call. The edge went to KMI. The obvious answer: own both. It came down to quibbling between a 6.66% and a 6.76% dividend rate. I kid you not. LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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A "Northerner" Terrifies Londoners

Link here.


Americans may miss the humor. To work as an SNL skit, substitute: A Canadian is terrifying New Yorkers.
at 2 comments: