SRE -- After-Hours -- August 19, 2021

Link here. 

News?

I don't know.

Maybe a reader does.

Quick google search: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-sre-consensus-analyst-rating-2021-08-2-3/.

Analysts' ratings: Business Insider, Benzinga Insights, August 19, 2021, 12:36 p.m. ET.

Covid-19 Vaccinations; Folks Getting Religion — August 19, 2021

 Covid-19 vaccination:

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered	Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday	Average number of doses given / day in past seven days
Thursday	August 19, 2021	422,175,735	2,562,810	359,623,380	1,023,545	85.18%
Wednesday	August 18, 2021	419,612,925	2,134,950	358,599,835	704,840	85.46%
Tuesday	August 17, 2021	417,477,975	1,519,670	357,894,995	602,938	85.73%
Monday	August 16, 2021	415,958,305	660	357,292,057	858,392	85.90%	8,397,600	765,555
Sunday	August 15, 2021	415,957,645	42,080	356,433,665	664,840	85.69%
Saturday	August 14, 2021	415,915,565	1,538,640	355,768,825	990,875	85.54%
Friday	August 13, 2021	414,376,925	3,123,000	354,777,950	918,056	85.62%
Thursday	August 12, 2021	411,253,925	1,687,610	353,859,894	654,350	86.04%
Wednesday	August 11, 2021	409,566,315	1,241,180	353,205,544	654,600	86.24%
Tuesday	August 10, 2021	408,325,135	764,430	352,550,944	617,769	86.34%
Monday	August 9, 2021	407,560,705	-1,000	351,933,175	532,245	86.35%	6,885,740	715,547

Twenty-Four Active Oil And Gas Rigs; Thirteen Permits Renewed; Nine Permits Canceled -- August 19, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.05	8/19/2021	08/19/2020	08/19/2019	08/19/2018	08/19/2017
Active Rigs	24*	12	62	59	53

Per NDIC, twenty-four active oil and gas rigs:

• CLR (8): Charolais South Federal, Pletan 8-18HSL, Flint Chips Federal, Pletan 10-18H, Bice, Tallahassee, LCU Ralph Federal,  LCU Ralph,
• Hess (4):CA-E Burdick l.. 8; CA-E Burdick ...5; EN-Zunich, BB-State A;
• MRO (2): Gene, Goth,
• Bruin: BB-State A,
• Hunt: Blue Ridge;
• Kraken: Wallace
• Ovintiv: Rolla,
• Whiting: Maki
• PetroShale: Anderson
• Slawson: Muskrat Federal,
• Oasis: Fraser Federal,
• Rimrock: FBIR Johnson,
• Petro-Hunt: Murphy,
• Koda Resources, Stout 34-1 SWD,

Three new permits, #38498 - #38500, inclusive:

• Operators: CLR (2), Eagle Operating
• Fields: Oakdale (Dunn County), Feldner Coulee (Renville County)
• Comments:
• Eagle Operating has a permit for another Feldner Coulee to be sited 505 FNL and 1865 FEL
• the well will be the VM 5-2 well NWNE 5-158-86
• CLR has permits for two more Whitman wells in Oakdale field;
• the wells will be sited at  554 FNL and 435 FWL and at 565 FNLW and 478 FWL

Thirteen permits were renewed:

• XTO (7): seven Bud permits in McKenzie County; six of them sited in SWSW 20-158-95; one will be sited in NWNE 30-149-96
• Lime Rock Resources (5): three Mariners permits in Burke County; and two Reuben Schneider permits in Dunn County
• Oasis: a Lars permit in lot 1, section 3-157-92, Mountrail County

Nine permits canceled:

• Rimrock (6): six Skunk Cfreek permits in Dunn County; section 7-148-92;
• EOG 3): three Hawkeye permits in NENE 25-152-95, McKenzie County

Notes From All Over -- The "Remote Texas City" Edition -- August 19, 2021

Link here. I saw the headline in The NYT but never clicked on the link because I assumed it was about some little town in west Texas -- oil town Midland or Odessa. It turns out that "remote" little town was New Braunfels. 

Oh, give me a break. Hardly "remote" or "outlying" -- sits just north of San Antonio on the I-35 north to Austin, perhaps the busiest thoroughfare in Texas. When The NYT got mocked for using the word "remote" to describe New Braunfels, the newspaper changed "remote" to "outlying." 

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Oh, The Irony

Guyana, Suriname

Locator: 10010GUYANA.
Locator: 10010SURINAME.

March 2, 2024: how much oil in Guyana? Now estimated to be one-half trillion dollars. Link here.

February 27, 2024: Chevron-Hess $53 billion merger at risk; XOM and CNOOC claim right of first refusal to buy out Hess stake in Guyana. If XOM and/or CNOOC "win" that argument, there's really no reason for Chevron to pursue Hess, except for Bakken and DJ Basin.

September 8, 2023: update.

March 6, 2023: Guyana wants to bring in more majors. 

November 29, 2022: update here.

August 19, 2021: Guyana, Suriname oil drilling activity to jump. Link to Irina Slav.

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Background

Guyana-Suriname Basin: rise from obscurity to super potential, WorldOil, May, 2021.

• estimates of 10+ billion bbls of oil
• estimates of 30 tera cubic feet of natural gas

THE EARLY EXPLORATION

Onshore exploration. In both Suriname and Guyana, oil seeps were known from the 1800s, into the 1900s. Exploration in Suriname discovered oil at a 160 m depth while drilling for water in a schoolyard in Calcutta Village.² The onshore Tambaredjo oil field (15-17 ^oAPI oil) was discovered in 1968. First oil began in 1982. Satellite oil fields to Calcutta and Tambaredjo were added. These fields had an original STOOIP of 1 Bbbl of oil. Currently, these fields are producing around 16,000 bopd.² Staatsolie’s crude is processed at Tout Lui Faut refinery, at 15,000 bpd, to produce diesel, gasoline, fuel oil, and bitumen.

Guyana did not have the same onshore success; since 1916, 13 wells have been drilled, but only two wells have shown oil.³ Onshore oil exploration in the 1940s produced geological studies in Takatu basin. Three wells were drilled between 1981 and 1993, all either dry or non-commercial. These wells confirmed the presence of thick black shale, Cenomanian-Turonian age (known as Canje Fm), equivalent to the La Luna formation in Venezuela.

Venezuela has a thriving oil exploration and production history.⁴ Drilling success dates back to 1908, first in the western part of the country with the Zumbaque 1 well,⁵ with production in Lake Maracaibo rising during WWI and into the 1920s and 1930s. Of course, the tar sands in the Orinoco Belt, discovered in 1936,⁶ have significantly impacted the oil reserves and resources, contributing to the 78 Bbbl of oil reserves; this reservoir gives Venezuela the current first position on reserves. La Luna formation (Cenomanian-Turonian) is a world-class source rock for much of this oil. La Luna⁷ is responsible for most of the oil found and produced from the Maracaibo basin and several others in Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. The source rock found offshore Guyana and Suriname has similar characteristics to those found in La Luna, and is the same age.

Offshore Guyana oil exploration: Shelf region. Exploration on the continental shelf began in earnest in 1967,⁷ with the Guyana Offshore-1 and -2 wells. A 15-year gap ensued until the Arapaima-1 was drilled, followed by Horseshoe-1 in 2000 and the 2012 wells, Eagle-1 and Jaguar-1. Six of these nine wells had either oil or gas shows; only the Abary-1, drilled in 1975, flowed oil (37 ^oAPI). Although the lack of any economic discovery was disappointing, these wells were very important, because they confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

Offshore Suriname oil exploration: Shelf region. The story of exploration on the continental shelf in Suriname mirrors that of Guyana. Nine wells were drilled through 2011, three of which had oil shows; the others were dry. Again, the lack of economic discoveries was disappointing, but these wells confirmed a functioning petroleum system was generating oil.

ODP Leg 207 drilled five sites in 2003 on the Demerara Rise, which separates the Guyana-Suriname basin from offshore French Guiana. Very importantly, all five wells encountered the same Cenomanian-Turonian Canje Fm source rock found in Guyana and Suriname wells, which was a confirmation of the presence of a source rock as La Luna.

Much more at this link.

Guyana success.

ExxonMobil/Hess et al. announced in May 2015 the now-famous Liza-1 discovery well in Stabroek license, offshore Guyana (Liza-1 well12).

Upper Cretaceous turbidite sands are the reservoir.

The follow-up Skipjack-1 well, drilled in 2016, found no commercial hydrocarbons.

Through 2020, the Stabroek partners have announced a total of 18 discoveries, amounting to a gross recoverable resource over 8 Bbbl of oil (corporate ExxonMobil)!

The Stabroek partners solved the concerns about the seismic response to hydrocarbon-bearing versus water-bearing reservoirs (Hess Investor, 2018 Investor Day 8).

A deeper Albian age source rock has been confirmed in some wells.

Interestingly, ExxonMobil and partners found oil in a carbonate reservoir in the Ranger-1 well, announced in 2018. Evidence suggests that this is a carbonate bank that accumulated atop a subsiding volcano.

The Haimara-18 discovery, announced in February 2019 as a gas condensate discovery in 63 m of high-quality reservoir. Haimara-1 sits adjacent to the border between Stabroek, Guyana, and Block 58, Suriname.

Notes From All Over -- August 19, 2021

US crude oil imports:

• summer of 2021, the last twelve weeks:

• same period, one year ago, 2020:
  

US crude oil imports, some thoughts:

• look at the huge jump (as a percentage) in imports starting in August, 2021
  
• part of this is due to the mix of types of oil desired; US top heavy in light oil; needs heavy oil from Canada, Mexico, Russia
  
• part of this is due to price / competition
• most of this simply due to a comparison with the year of the plague (2020); a better comparison would be with 2019;
• big question: to what extent is domestic production not keeping up?
• to what extent is domestic production not keeping up by design;
• to what extent is domestic production not keeping up simply because it cannot;

Saudi crude oil inventories, link here:

Afghanistan: social media video coming out of Kabul suggests:

• things are going to get much worse, sooner (before August 31, 2021) than later
• more US combat troops will have to be sent in,
• and even then, it may not be enough

Sensing a pattern here, from social media earlier this morning. Highlights from President Biden's ABC interview:

• did not "recall" being warned by US military to not push ahead with his plan;
• did not know US has troops in Syria
• did not know certain events in Kabul happened this week
• said people falling "off" US transport aircraft happened "four, five days ago"; in fact, that happened the day before the interview
• did not know people were getting killed
• most commonly used "legal phrase" in the interview: "I do not recall." 
• it's my experience folks generally don't believe "I do not recall" answer, but in this case, it's probably accurate. Very accurate.
  

The RTD Page -- August 19, 2021

I completely missed the RTD sector. I had no idea where Coke-Cola and Pepsi were headed. It all began with SAM a few weeks ago. 

Two "data points" led to this review.

The first, some weeks ago when SAM (Boston Beer) reported earnings. Ouch.

The second, from overnight, from Motley Fool:

Warren Buffett: five holdings account for 88% of Berkshire Hathaway's unrealized gains. KO surged while I wasn't looking. Led me down an interesting path overnight. The five stocks: BRK, AAPL, AMEX, BofA, KO. These five holdings account for almost 90% of Berkshire Hathaway's unrealized gains. Link here. 

So, the links:

• Molson Coors is quadrupling down on hard seltzer, RTDs.

• SAM (Boston Beer).

• Pepsi: Mountain Dew with alcohol coming, partnership between Boston Beer and Pepsi.

• Pepsi: to launch Mountain Dew-branded alcoholic drinks (plural) in 2022.

• Coca-Colz enters US alcoholic drinks market: partnership between Molson Coors and Coke -- 1H21 -- beating Pepsi / Boston Beer in the RTD sector. Topo Cico (Coca-Cola) hard seltzer, link to Forbes.

• Yuengling: wiki.
  

• oldest operating brewing company in America
• Biden's backyard: PA, DE
• established in 1829
• largest craft brewery
• sixth/seventh largest overall brewery
• HQ: Pottsville, PA

• Top 50 brewing companies by sales volume, 2020.

• Top 50 brewing companies; lames that have dropped off the list.

• Top 50 craft breweries in the US, 2021. Quicker version.

• Lagunitas Brewing Company.
• founded in 1993
• Lagunitas, CA
• a subsidiary of Heineken; bought a 50% share in 2015; purchased remainder in 2017
• 2013: fifth top-selling craft brewery

• The Washington Post; the perfect 4/20 beer. 
  

• 420: Cannabis culture.
  

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Xanadu

Which of course, the RTD page leads us to Xanadu. A reader sent me this at the very time I was working on the RTD page. Great minds think alike.

Xanadu is to Beijing, as Camp David is to Washington, DC, today.

The reader's interest in Xanadu: horses.

My interest in Xanadu: Chinese history. Once I get my books out of storage, I can take a photograph of my notes re: China. Those notes compliment my one-of-a-kind map of China. See below.

Link here.

The Site of Xanadu, located on Jinlianchuan Prairie and the north bank of the Shandian River, is 12 miles northwest to the center of Zhenglan (Xulun Hoh) Banner of Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia in north China. Xanadu, Shangdu in Chinese, was the capital of China in the early years of the Yuan Dynasty (1271 - 1368). 

Established in 1256, this metropolis, created by the Mongols, a nation on horseback, is considered the archetype combination of farming and nomadic culture. 

Xanadu’s prominent position in history is as famous as the ancient city of Pompeii in Italy. The present Site of Xanadu, including the general layout and precious relics, was included in the UNESCO World Heritage List in 2012, and has now become a most sought-after destination.

The Mongol Empire was the largest known in the history of the world, and covered most of modern-day Eurasia. In 1255, Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan (the founder of the Mongol Empire), became governor of the prized fertile plains previously held by the Western Xia (Inner Mongolia). 

He started to build a city in 1256, and the project was completed in 1259. Kublai Khan ascended the throne there in 1260, and named the place Kaiping City. In 1264, it was renamed Xanadu (also Shangjing or Bianjing), and later served as the political, economic, military, and cultural center in northern China. 

During the following Yuan Dynasty, the Great Capital (Dadu) was created in today’s Beijing. From then on, Xanadu became a secondary capital and an imperial summer resort. Every year from March to September, the emperor and his ministers would handle the daily affairs there.

The ancient prosperity of Xanadu disappeared due to warfare and revolt, leading to the end of the Yuan Dynasty.