Ovintiv, Dividends, Olympics, Mental Health Day, And All That Jazz -- July 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Ovintiv, 2Q21 earnings; link here:

• increasing free cash flow;
• paying off debt;
• strat plan based on $50-oil and $2.75 natural gas
• 50% increase in quarterly dividend payment; 56 cents / share annualized;

Investing for dividends:

• Motley Fool: three to buy if "the market crashes"; link here; two of the three:
• AbbVie
• EPD
• the best risk-reward plays in oil, link to Alex Kimani;
• number one: ENB
• number two: EPD
• number three: PSXP / PSX
• others:
• MPLX LP
• Rattler Midstream LP
• other MLPs:
• Plains All American Pipeline, LP
• Plains GP Holdings, LP
• Magellan Midstream Partners, LP
• Kinder Morgan, Inc (KMI)
• The Williams Companies (WMB)

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Olympics TV ratings, headlines; not selected by me; top hits from a google search:

• Tokyo Olympics ratings a bust for NBC, a boost for streaming -- Los Angeles Times:
• Olympic ratings plunge and star athlete stumbles heat up NBC's make-good talks with advertisers -- Variety;
• NBC's streaming service Peacock slammed over its Olympics coverage -- New York Post;

Can you imagine Tom Brady having a bad first quarter in a Super Bowl, taking himself out of the game, saying his mind was not in it?

Covid-19:

• the administration seems to be in panic mode; not sure if it's real or simply a "thing"; I really have no idea; but the numbers were really, really poor the past two days;
• Mondays and Tuesdays are always bad, but this week -- yesterday and today -- were particularly bad;
• biggest mistake in trying to get folks to get their immunizations: telling folks who are already fully vaccinated need to go back to indoor masking and the possibility of new lockdowns are back on the table; so, the cynics and under-educated will say, "why get vaccinated." 
• all we hear is that even the vaccinated will "get" the delta virus; so again, why get vaccinated?
  

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Brotherly Love

Pad Fire Near Keene -- Update -- Still Burning -- July 27, 2021

Updates

August 3, 2021, 1:06 a.m.: update; it's still burning.

August 2, 2021: no updates available following a google search.

Original Post 

From a reader, thank you very much.

See these two posts for the original story:

• the pad fire;
• the map;

Now the update from KXNET news:

• nearly five days, still burning;
• contained; no fire off the pad;
• site is on the Little Missouri National Grassland
• a Petro-Hunt well pad;
• barriers posted on 103 V Avenue and 47th M Street NW

The well is said to be "north of Charlson, North Dakota."

Google maps:

******************************
Brassed Off

Related:

• Interview with Stephen Tompkinson;
• 21st anniversary; Royal Albert Hall;
• short tribute to Peter Postlethwaite;
• Pete Postlethwaite: a tribute;

Four New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed; And Four CLR DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 27, 2021

Finally, we get the answer. The NDIC may have posted this some time ago; if so I missed it. 

But now we know.

From the NDIC, link here:

Data Services Notification:

As we upgrade our internal reporting & database tools which send data to the website some Oil and Gas Division data is temporarily out-of-date.
Data is accurate up to July 14, 2021. Check this alert for news on when services are whole. Questions can be emailed to oilandgasinfo@nd.gov.

Active rigs:

$71.65	7/27/2021	07/27/2020	07/27/2019	07/27/2018	07/27/2017
Active Rigs	23	12	59	62	60

Four new permits, #38444 - #38447, inclusive:

• Operator: RimRock Oil & Gas (3): Eagle Operating
• Fields: Twin Buttes (Dunn); Great Northern (Bottineau)
• Comments:
• Eagle Operating with a permit for a well in Bottineau County, SWNW 20-160-83; the well will be sited 2135' FNL and 505' FWL
• RimRock has permits for the following wells:
• Fundmentally 15-14H, Basically 15-14TFH, and Essentially 15-14H, all in SWSE 14-147-92; the three wells will be sited 498' FSl and 2068' FEL; 523' FSL and 2084' FEL; and, 608 FSL and 2135" FEL;

Thirteen wells in Divide County were transferred from Petro-Hunt to Resource Energy Can-AM, one file #15761, but the others all in the 21XXX to 25XXX range.

Nine permits renewed:

• BR (6): three Morganfill permits and three Kirklandfill permits, all in McKenzie County
• XTO: a Harley Federal permit in McKenzie County;
• Liberty Resources: a Holmen permit in Burke County;
• Equinor: a Lucy Hanson permit in Williams County

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36801, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 6-14HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
• 36802, drl/NC, CLR, Florida Federal 6-11HSL, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
• 32475, drl/NC, CLR, Alpha 7-14H1, NESW 14-152-100, Camp, no production data,
• 37502, loc/NC, CLR, Miles 14-6HSL, SENE 6-150-96, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

AAPL -- June, 2021, Quarter

BREAKING: after-hours, AAPL is down $6/share after earnings announcement. There are reasons why AAPL is down this much. This is shocking when looking at the earning report. Apple won't give guidance but they do comment on what they expect in next quarter (sounds like guidance): quarter-over-quarter, the  growth rate will drop. Component constraints will be severe in the September quarter but by the December quarter they should be "back to normal." The buzz phrase: "sequential decline in margins." AAPL is a $138 stock. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earnings:

Earnings:

AAPL: huge beat:

• at the close: $146.77; down $2.22; down 1.49%
• eps: $1.30 vs $1.01
  
• rev: $81.4 billion  estimates: $73.8 billion
  
• comments:
• beat on top line, bottom line, and every line in between (each product line)
  
• iPhones $39.57 billion vs $34.5 billion (this is the number most watched buy folks who do not understand Apple)
• services revenue: $17.49 billion vs $16.3 billion expected
  
• after announcement; stock hardly moves; can you imagine how far this stock would have fallen had this earnings report missed expectations? wow?
  
• wow; super-cycle playing out even more strongly than expected; in six to nine months, a $3 trillion company
• one analyst: share price up another 15% before the end of the year; $150 x 1.15 = $175
  
• on-going chip shortage; affected Mac ad iPad
• iPad beat estimatges but not by much;
  
• gross margins; 43.3% vs 41.9% 
• cash on hand: $190.64
• $2.449 trillion / $146 = 16.78 billion outstanding shares 
• official: 16.69 billion shares
  
• $3 trillion / 16.69 billion = $180/share

In a few minutes, analysis over at CNBC's "Fast Money" by analyst and panel:

• iPhone 12: double-digit growth by both:
• Android switchers; and,
• current Apple iPhone users and owners
• Gene Munster:
• stock and the business
• impressive beat
• bingo word of the day: sustainability
• each time Apple has a great quarter, investors ask how long this "greatness" will last;
• Apple tapping into new massive markets: transportation; health and medicine:
• next year of two: $200-stock
• but could become much bigger
• half their earnings, maybe more, from their services (sustainability)
• hardware multiple: ?
  
• software multiple: ?
• estimate: $7/share earnings next year
• a P/E of 28 - 30 puts AAPL at $200/share
• double-digit growth in iPhone 12 growth --- folks are missing how big a deal this is;

Big Earnings Announcements After Hours -- Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earnings:

• AAPL: huge beat:
  
• at the close: $146.77; down $2.22; down 1.49%
• eps: $1.30 vs $1.01
  
• rev: $81 billion  estimates: $73 billion
  
• comments:
• beat on top line, bottom line, and every line in between (each product line)
  
• iPhones $39.57 billion vs $34 Billion
• after announcement; stock hardly moves; can you imagine how far this stock would have fallen had this earnings report missed expectations? wow?
  
• wow; super-cycle playing out even stronger than expected; in six to nine months, a $3 trillion company
• one analyst: share price up another 15% before the end of the year; $150 x 1.15 = $175
  
• on-going chip shortage; affected Mac ad iPad
• iPad beat estimatges but not by much;
  
• gross margins; 43.3% vs 41.9% 
• cash on hand: $190.64
• $2.449 trillion / $146 = 16.78 billion outstanding shares 
• official: 16.69 billion shares
  
• $3 trillion / 16.69 billion = $180/share
  
• MSFT: beats
• at the close: $286.54; down $2.51; down 0.987%
• eps: $2.17 vs $1.92
• rev:
• comments: MSFT drops on earnings;
  
• after announcement: down 3%; down $8.60;
• VISA: huge beat:
  
• at the close: $250.19; down 6 cents; down 0.02%
• eps: $1.49 vs $1.35
  
• rev: $6.13 billion vs $5.88 billion
  
• comments:
• after announcement:
  
• GOOG: huge beat: actually, quite incredible;
  
• at the close: $2,735.93, down $56.96; down 2.04%
• eps: $27.26 vs $19.34
  
• rev: $61.88 billion vs $56.16 billion
  
• comments: well above estimates: the revenue number well above what analysts expected; analysts stunned; stock will jump tomorrow;
  
• after announcement: up $69; up 2.4%; trading at $2,796
  
• SBUX: beats across the board; strong report 
• at the close: $126.03; down 3 cents; down 0.02%
• eps: $1.01 vs 78 cents;
• rev: $7.50 billion vs $7.29 billion
• comments:
• after announcement: down 2%; down $2.53;
• Mattel: beat
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

An Enerplus Thread Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 27, 2021

The well:

• 29974, 380, Enerplus, Thread 149-93-04D-03H, Mandaree, 41 stages; 11.64 million lbs proppant, t2/16; cum 480K 9/20; strong production profile continues into 2019, producing 7,500 bbls/month as recently as 12/18; cum 503K 5/21; 

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	2577	2634	1721	4936	3052	473
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	2664	2629	3235	4188	2633	89
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	2784	2717	1388	5847	2962	1412
BAKKEN	2-2021	26	1904	1903	1212	3995	1932	1006
BAKKEN	1-2021	30	2264	2229	1258	4755	2828	701
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	3499	3649	1767	7347	5256	523

A CLR Nashville Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 27, 2021

The well:

• 31357, 1,102, CLR, Nashville 2-21H, Catwalk, 40 stages, 8.7 million lbs, t6/16; cum 517K 9/20; easily exceeding a 900,000 bbl-EUR type curve (per CLR corporate presentation, data as of 9/6/16): off line 5/20; back on line 8/20; cum 540K 5/21; never a great well; just a steady Eddie.
  

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	3002	3303	4289	2730	1684	639
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	2745	2620	3838	2061	1667	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	2715	2647	3890	2227	1785	42
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	2565	2636	3493	1869	1297	209
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	2727	2652	3924	2240	1789	47
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2977	3093	4262	2498	2008	83
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	3074	3081	4732	3165	2620	158

Weekly Covid-19 Vaccination Stats -- July 27, 2021

CDC link here.

Daily average for the past week remains steady at around 550,000 vaccinations given per day across the US, but the most recent 24-hour report was horrible, possible the worse on record since tracking began:

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered	Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday	Average number of doses given / day in past seven days
Monday	July 26, 2021	394,949,575	600	342,212,051	393,083	86.65%	4,774,820	566,374
Sunday	July 25, 2021	394,948,975	12,160	341,818,968	778,996	86.55%
Saturday	July 24, 2021	394,936,815	1,006,860	341,039,972	676,050	86.35%
Friday	July 23, 2021	393,929,955	1,931,330	340,363,922	600,157	86.40%
Thursday	July 22, 2021	391,998,625	749,670	339,763,765	660,798	86.67%
Wednesday	July 21, 2021	391,248,955	512,980	339,102,967	611,593	86.67%
Tuesday	July 20, 2021	390,735,975	561,220	338,491,374	243,940	86.63%
Monday	July 19, 2021	390,174,755	74,150	338,247,434	507,076	86.69%	3,168,635	520,952
Sunday	July 18, 2021	390,100,605	-100	337,740,358	500,910	86.58%
Saturday	July 17, 2021	390,100,705	740,870	337,239,448	635,290	86.45%
Friday	July 16, 2021	389,359,835	621,340	336,604,158	549,205	86.45%
Thursday	July 15, 2021	388,738,495	443,110	336,054,953	567,174	86.45%
Wednesday	July 14, 2021	388,295,385	1,053,855	335,487,779	545,543	86.40%
Tuesday	July 13, 2021	387,241,530	235,410	334,942,236	341,466	86.49%
Monday	July 12, 2021	387,006,120	0	334,600,770	449,122	86.46%	3,937,380	521,064

Note the incredible logistics process: ordering / receiving / anticipating demand / etc: the seventh column. The percent of vaccination doses shipped that is actually administered. Some might argue that 14% wastage is awful high. I don't know.

Shell To Develop A "Whale" Of An Oil Field -- July 27, 2021

Best twitter tweet from yesterday, link here. Just a few months ago, Shell said it was going green, pledging to net-zero emissions by 2050. 

That was when they were losing their shirt on $50 oil; now that crude oil is trading above $70 Shell has a huge change of heart. Shell announces it will go ahead with its Gulf of Mexico "Whale" oilfield project. The link takes you to a Reuters article:

Royal Dutch Shell announced plans on Monday to develop a new oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico, its first major project to get the go-ahead since a Dutch court ordered the energy company to accelerate its carbon emissions reduction targets.

The Whale development, operated by Shell which owns 60% of the project, alongside Chevron with 40%, is expected to reach peak production of around 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Whale, which was discovered in 2017, holds a recoverable resource of 490 million barrels of oil equivalent and is scheduled to begin production in 2024.

In May, a court in The Hague ordered Shell to accelerate its energy transition plans and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 45% by 2030, significantly faster than its current plan. Such cuts would mean shrinking its oil and gas business. 

Sempra / Poland: from SeekingAlpha -- 

• Poland's state-controlled PGNiG says it terminated a supply deal with Sempra Energy for 2M mt/year of liquefied natural gas from the Port Arthur LNG project in Texas, citing delays in the project's development. 
• But the Polish firm also signed a new memorandum with the company for a potential replacement of the Port Arthur volumes from Sempra's other projects in North America. 
•  PGNiG also agrees to buy an additional 2M mt/year of LNG from U.S. supplier Venture Global, bringing its total contracted volume with the company to 5.5M mt/year. 
• Sempra said in May that it likely would delay its planned final investment decision on the Port Arthur LNG plant until next year. 

In a down market today, the utilities are doing well, and SRE is up 1%, a $124-stock trading at $132. With a P/E of 10, it pays 3.7%.  

China syndrome: ARKK in free-fall. Down almost 4%.

Notes From All Over -- July 27, 2021

Russia banned from Olympics. Russia wins gold (first place) in women's team gymnastics. 

China/ARKK: it looks like Cathie Wood can't dump Chinese stocks fast enough. Did she not see this coming a year ago?

Covid-19: could this change the narrative? Some Americans now seeking additional jabs from different companies. Why not? There's a huge excess of vaccine. I assume insurance companies are watching this closely. I'm sure they aren't paying for more vaccinations that recommended by CDC or the manufacturers. 

• Germany's Angela Merkel received Moderna's shot in June after getting AstraZeneca's in April.
• Shephard Smith said he was disappointed to have received the JNJ vaccine; wishes he had taken a 2-shot vaccine
  

Economic indicators: this morning's report incredibly good. Rick Santelli reported them moments ago; hopefully I will be able to find print report this morning. Consumer Confidence Index highest since February, 2020; that was pre-Covid lockdown.

CDC: from the horse's mouth, as they say -- 7/21/21 -- lab alert -- changes to CDC-RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 Testing -- link here. Apparently "seasonal flu" will be back this fall / winter.

After December 31, 2021, CDC will withdraw the request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for Emergency Use Authorization of the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, the assay first introduced in February 2020 for detection of SARS-CoV-2 only. 

CDC is providing this advance notice for clinical laboratories to have adequate time to select and implement one of the many FDA-authorized alternatives.

Visit the FDA website for a list of authorized COVID-19 diagnostic methods. For a summary of the performance of FDA-authorized molecular methods with an FDA reference panel. 

In preparation for this change, CDC recommends clinical laboratories and testing sites that have been using the CDC 2019-nCoV RT-PCR assay select and begin their transition to another FDA-authorized COVID-19 test. 

CDC encourages laboratories to consider adoption of a multiplexed method that can facilitate detection and differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza viruses. 

Such assays can facilitate continued testing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 and can save both time and resources as we head into influenza season. Laboratories and testing sites should validate and verify their selected assay within their facility before beginning clinical testing. 

This sort of explains everything, doesn't it?

Costco: opens new stores in five states, July - August, with more to come. Sales continue to boom after lockdown. From June 9, 2021:

• Murfreesboro, TN
• Little Rock, AR
• Moore, OK
• Springfield, MO
• Naperville, IL

From the blog, truly bizarre to see this CNBC report deemed to be too dangerous for younger viewers. LOL The video is age restricted. Here's the screenshot, I cannot make this stuff up:

Here's the link to the update of the Bakken that is age-restricted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEi0b7CFDHI.

Violence, porn, drug, language? I don't know. Maybe it's because someone was seen holding a bottle of crude oil.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 27, 2021

Covid-19: the delta variant is starting to change. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Holy mackerel: I don't know if anyone is paying attention but surfing the business pages --- amazing... 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple: the big story today, of course, is Apple. Will report earnings today market close. Also, Microsoft will report.

• expected to post record earning; link to The WSJ;
• high expectations;
• preview: Yahoo!Finance;

T:

• bullish recommendation; SeekingAlpha; nice update;

Oil; is anyone paying attention? WTI might be down a bit this morning, but...

• Louisiana Light: up 2.52%; up $1.78, trading at $72.54
• Bonny Light: up slightly
• OPEC Basket: up 4.43%; up $3.10; trading at $73.03
• and now I see, WTI just went green

From oilprice:

Natural gas: remains the big story of the year. Caught many by surprise. Question: how it will affect earnings for majors?

Coal: Indiana -- ranked third in the nation in total coal consumption in 2020, and coal fueled 53% of Indiana's electricity net generation. Link here.

Gasoline demand:

China/Iraq: more evidence that Iraq and China becoming a "thing." China will build airport, houses under oil-for-projects deal in Iraq (link to Charles Kennedy); majors pulling out of Iraq; and, US to end combat operations in Iraq by end of year. 

China/equities: from ADHD Capital LLC, "something very ominous is going on in China and it has to do with negative real rates in the US and the CCP wanting to make sure that Americans can't print money to buy Chinese assets."

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$72.15	7/27/2021	07/27/2020	07/27/2019	07/27/2018	07/27/2017
Active Rigs	23	12	59	62	60

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: symposium explores how natural gas fits into ERCOT reliability. 

As nobody in Texas will soon forget, in February of this year freezing temperatures across the southern U.S. hammered energy markets and resulted in widespread and long-lasting blackouts across the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) power region. 

Life for many Texans came to a standstill for a week until power could be restored. The resulting economic damages have been estimated in the billions. 

Many people, rightfully, questioned how an energy-rich state like Texas could have been so affected. And then the blame-game started. 

Lacking a forum of qualified experts, productive discussions took a back seat to self-serving rhetoric, special-interest advocacy, and political posturing. But if real solutions were going to be found, it would take more than finger-pointing. It would take a meeting of experts whose primary focus was a resolution, rather than a constituency. Fortunately for Texans, that’s what they got two weeks ago. In today’s blog, we take you through the symposium and its outcome, particularly regarding the role of natural gas.