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Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Six New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed -- Yesterday, Today, And Tomorrow -- July 21, 2021

Before we get started:

  • DFS (Discover): announces a significant dividend increase;
  • was 44 cents; now 50 cents;
    • record date: 8/19/21
    • payable date: 9/2/21
  • 6 / 44 = a fourteen percent increase in the dividend?

From Zacks:

  • Discover (DFS) came out with quarterly earnings of $5.55 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.68 per share. This compares to loss of $1.20 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.
  • This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 50.82%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this credit card issuer and lender would post earnings of $2.88 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.04, delivering a surprise of 75%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Now, back to regular programming.

Yesterday:

Today:

Tomorrow?  Pending

Not to be forgotten, posted July 15, 2021:

Money market funds:

  • comments:
    • so, money in money market funds had been running at $3 trillion, like forever;
    • then, January, 2019, to November, 2019, these funds jumped from $3 trillion to nearly $4 trillion
    • but literally, overnight, from December, 2019, to March, 2020, jumped from nearly $4 trillion to solidly over $5 trillion
    • that's a lot of money providing zero return when the equity market is paying on average about 3% and appreciating at the same time;

The Dow: in addition to the above, there is another data point, no one is talking about. In the Dow graphic below, there are at least four data points one can point out. One of the four data points has not been addressed today. See if you can guess which data point to which I am referring. Hint: it applies directly to the money market graph above.

Market movers, at the close today, note OKE:

UPS television ad:

  • hiring at DFW (Dallas - Ft Worth international airport);
  • $19 / hour -- night shift
  • $25K college incentive

******************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken production: "flat as a pancake' -- ND regulator. Reason: not enough frack spreads. And that certainly fits the daily reports: "no" newly drilled wells are being completed; when wells come off the confidential list, if they have been drilled, they go to the "drilled, uncompleted" (DUC) list. Meanwhile, on a daily basis, I'm not seeing reports of many DUCs showing production even after being reported as completed.  

And as long as fracking is the long pole in the tent, there is no need to add any more rigs in the unconventional oil patch. 

Active rigs:

$70.21
7/21/202107/21/202007/21/201907/21/201807/21/2017
Active Rigs2311556759

Six new permits, #38432 - #38437, inclusive:

  • Operator: WPX (5); Denbury Onshore
  • Field: McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Cedar Hills (Bowman)
  • Comments:
    • Denbury Onshore has a CHSU permit in Cedar Hills, to be sited in NWNW 35-131-105,
      • the well will be sited 121' FNL and 286' FWL
    • WPX has permits for five Wounded Face permits, to be sited in SWSE 15-148-94, McGregory Buttes;
      • the wells will be sited 513' FSL and between 1920' FEL and 2040' FEL;
      • the wellheads will be sited thirty feet apart

Ten permits renewed:

  • Oasis (5): five Slagle permits in McKenzie County, SESW/SWSE/SESE section 12-151-101
  • XTO (3): three Prairie Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Whiting (2): two USA Federal permits in McKenzie County

Slawson

  • it appears Slawson has canceled three permits, two Rainmake Federal and one Cougar Federal permits, #30415 - #30417, inclusive, based on name changes for the wells;

Covid-19 Vaccination Update -- July 21, 2021

CDC link here.

Yesterday it was noted that the CDC reported only 243,940 vaccinations were administered in the previous twenty-four hours which was an all-time low -- an incredible low. One reader suggested there must have been an error. I agreed that an error in reporting from state agencies most likely explained this incredibly low number.

If that was the case, then we should have seen a proportional jump in total number of vaccinations given to date, not the day change, but the total number of vaccinations given. Didn't happen. 

The number of vaccinations reported given in the past twenty-hours was about typical, which suggests the number yesterday was not an error, at least not a significant error. 

By the way, as noted yesterday:

  • yesterday's data was reported very, very late in the day, almost 7:30 p.m. ET; 
  • whereas today's data was reported about the usual time it is always reported during the week, about 3:30 p.m. ET.
This is not a conspiracy theory but yesterday's reporting and the data reported was very, very strange.

Here are the numbers:



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose

Fully Vaccinated

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans (>18) Considered Fully Vaccinated

Delta from day before

Wednesday

July 21, 2021

339,102,867

186,819,440

161,895,045

611,493

102.83%

63.16%

0.10%

Tuesday

July 20, 2021

338,491,374

186,474,836

161,631,676

243,940

102.84%

63.06%

0.06%

Monday

July 19, 2021

338,247,434

186,317,651

161,473,715

507,076

102.82%

63.00%

0.09%

Sunday

July 18, 2021

337,740,358

186,038,501

161,232,483

500,910

102.82%

62.90%

0.09%

Saturday

July 17, 2021

337,239,448

185,765,452

160,994,035

635,290

102.82%

62.81%

0.12%

Friday

July 16, 2021

336,604,158

185,424,899

160,686,378

549,205

102.82%

62.69%

0.11%

Thursday

July 15, 2021

336,054,953

185,135,757

160,408,538

567,174

102.82%

62.58%

0.11%

Wednesday

July 14, 2021

335,487,779

184,835,149

160,126,516

545,543

102.82%

62.47%

0.18%

 



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Wednesday

July 21, 2021

391,248,955

512,980

339,102,967

611,593

86.67%


Tuesday

July 20, 2021

390,735,975

561,220

338,491,374

243,940

86.63%


Monday

July 19, 2021

390,174,755

74,150

338,247,434

507,076

86.69%

3,168,635

Sunday

July 18, 2021

390,100,605

-100

337,740,358

500,910

86.58%


Saturday

July 17, 2021

390,100,705

740,870

337,239,448

635,290

86.45%


Friday

July 16, 2021

389,359,835

621,340

336,604,158

549,205

86.45%


Thursday

July 15, 2021

388,738,495

443,110

336,054,953

567,174

86.45%


Wednesday

July 14, 2021

388,295,385

1,053,855

335,487,779

545,543

86.40%


Oil Surges -- Apparently Traders Finally Read The Small Print In The OPEC+ Agreement -- July 21, 2021

Is anyone paying attention? 

Monday, last, was a huge buying opportunity.

Today, WTI:

  • up almost 5%:
  • up over $3.00 / bbl
  • now trading at $70.31

What's MNRL doing? Up 3.44%; up sixty-five cent; trading at $19.53. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

An Old MRO Elk USA Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- July 21, 2021

An MRO Elk USA well goes over 500K bbls crude oil. The well:

  • 19181, 1,088, MRO, Elk USA 11-17H, Van Hook/Wildcat, Bakken, t5/11; cum 468K 4/19; cum 512K 5/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202125139213731151444121755
BAKKEN4-2021221095113696118395873
BAKKEN3-202131167417142181793148287
BAKKEN2-2021281573151810017331366149
BAKKEN1-20213117911775121201417715
BAKKEN12-2020311689168159184816374
BAKKEN11-20203017521757811901163080
BAKKEN10-20202911951222781374116180
BAKKEN9-202030185220061072106185529
BAKKEN8-2020311968169526927881837733
BAKKEN7-2020223024481300451240176