Week 18: May 2, 2021 -- May 8, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president;

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

• US equity markets soar; no stopping this market except a black swan;
• Vaccinations dropping; and, here; and, here; and, here;
• Inflation;
• The year of rail; and, here;
• Amazon acquires eleven seasons of NFL's Thursday Night Football;

Top national energy story:

• Marcellus: EQT buy's Alta's northeast Pennsylvania's assets;
• Gasoline demand plateaus;
• Huge crude oil draw;
• Sempra delays FID on mega-LNG export terminal;
• Jet fuel delivered doubles year-over-year;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects: link here.
• DAPL says: keep DAPL open; it will have EIS completed in March, 2022;
• Highway 85 widening from Watford City to Long X Bridge moves forward;
• 30 x 30 land grab: Biden wants 30% of US land and coastal seas set aside by 2030 for conservation efforts climate change)

Operators:

• EOG: like most operators, huge quarter; declares special dividend; here;
• CLR: YOLO;
• Oasis picks Bakken acreage; here;
• PXD says its breakeven in the Permian: $15/bbl;
• CLR with eight new permits in Brooklyn oil field; and, here;

Operations:

• CLR: will start drilling out the Long Creek Unit this August; will add a fifth rig;
• Seventeen rigs; eleven operators; CLR with five;

Wells:

• Hess reporting nice Manitou wells; and, here;
• The CLR Vardon DUC;
• The Hess EN-Chamley DUC;
• The XTO Nygaard DUC;
• WPX Corral well goes over 600,000 bbls crude oil cumulative;

DUCs:

• Current list;

Fracking:

• A five day frack, Hess, EN-Labar;

Halo effect:

• In Elm Creek oil field;

Natural gas:

Pipelines:

• Federal judge hears opening arguments re: DAPL;

Bakken economy:

• Electricity demand continues to grow;
• Paddlefishing is back;

One New Permit; Nine DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 7, 2021

Active rigs:

$64.90	5/7/2021	05/07/2020	05/07/2019	05/07/2018	05/07/2017
Active Rigs	16	20	64	61	49

One new permit, #38301:

• Operator: Armstrong Operating
• Field: South Camel Hump (Golden Valley)
• Comments:
• Armstrong has a single permit for a Fugere well in NESW 31-141-103
• the well will be sited 1600' FSL and 2440' FWL

Nine DUCs reported as completed:

• 36815, drl/A, Whiting, Dwyer 31-27H, Rawson, first production, 2/21; t--; cum 25K 3/21;
  
• 37051, drl/A, CLR, Simmental Federal 6-16H, Elm Tree, first produciton, -- ; t--; cum --;
  
• 36765, drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 10-24H, Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;
  
• 36814, drl/A, Whiting, Dwyer 31-27-2H, Rawson, first production, 2/21; t--; cum 35K 3/21;
  
• 36942, drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 2-24H1, Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;
• 36943, drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 3-24HK, Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;
• 37059, drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 8-9H1, Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;
• 36767, drl/A, CLR, LCU Jessie 12-24H Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;
• 37060, drl/A, CLR, Angus Federal 7-9H, Long Creek, first production, t-; cum --;

One permit canceled:

• Kraken, a Bigfoot well in Mountrail County

"Vaccine Hesitancy" -- Friday, May 7, 2021

CDC data is here.  

Note sixth column.

All rows hidden except the Friday data.

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered
Friday	May 7, 2021	327,124,625	2,514,440	254,779,333	2,805,581	77.88%
Friday	April 30, 2021	308,774,155	3,295,660	240,159,677	2,799,184	77.78%
Friday	April 23, 2021	286,095,185	3,911,270	222,322,230	3,374,587	77.71%
Friday	April 16, 2021	258,502,815	3,102,150	202,282,293	3,965,253	78.25%
Friady	April 9, 2021	233,591,955	4,193,270	178,837,781	3,958,065	76.56%
Friday	April 2, 2021	204,719,335	4,222,700	157,606,463	3,975,059	76.99%
Friday	March 26, 2021	177,501,775	3,976,440	136,684,688	3,379,393	77.00%
Friday	March 19, 2021	154,199,235	3,090,790	118,313,818	2,583,810	76.73%
Friday	March 12, 2021	133,337,525	2,206,055	101,128,005	2,924,112	75.84%
Friday	March 5, 2021	114,133,115	4,227,585	85,008,094	2,435,246	74.48%

All Green -- May 7, 2021

Updates

Later, 10:36 p.m. CT: someone else had the same thoughts I had. From social media:

Original Post

After today, the only thing that makes sense, the summer of '22:

Reported, again, today: on May 17, 2021, capacity limits in all restaurants completely lifted. That would be a week from next Monday. 

All green:

• all four major US equity markets (Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2,000)
• WTI
• gold
• silver
• even the 10-year bond, but still less than 1.6%

Black swan: that's about the only thing that will end this party. 

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- The "Markets Soar" Edition -- May 7, 2021

After this note, off the net for awhile. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

NOG: up 9% so far today; up $1.40/share; now trading at $16.62.

• tops 1Q21 earnings and revenue estimates;
• declares cash dividend; press release;
  

US equity markets: will three major US equity market indices hit all-time intra-day highs today? I've lost the bubble on the NASDAQ -- it's probably still significantly lower to recent sell-off but mainstream media is reporting that the S&P 500 already hit a record high "as tech shares jump after jobs report miss."

Comment: I always get a kick out of the market on the days "jobs" are reported. Regardless of the report, one hour after the report all is forgotten and the market moves on other news -- usually on something a politician or a former Fed president says.

EOG, headlines today (link is dynamic):

• EOG up over 5% today; up over $4/share; trading over $81;
• beats on 1Q21 earnings estimates;
• beats on 1Q21 revenue estimates;
• top oil stocks to watch in US shale as profits return amid rising crude demand;
• EOG Resources first-quarter profit surges as crude prices rebound;
• EOG reports excellent first quarter 2021 results; declares $1.00 per share special dividend;
• EOG is up 7.6% today; up $5.87/share; trading at $82.85
  

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- May 7, 2021

Reminder: Mother's Day, this Sunday.

Sorry. Not Sorry. -- Warren Buffett. The NASDAQ needs to get with the program. Let's see ... how long has NASDAQ had to fix this problem? A decade? Two decades?

UK fuel sales: back to highest since pandemic began.

• weekly consumption hit post-pandemic high last week
• high vaccination rate makes UK bellweather (sic) for oil demand
  

Bellwether or bellweather: unless the Brits and/or Bloomberg spell it differently, I always thought it was bellwether -- having to do with the lead sheep wearing a bell leading the unquestioning flock. Link here.

• perhaps Mary Poppins, with her umbrella, was a bell-weather icon;

Gasoline prices: set to surge this summer. Link to Irina Slav. Elsewhere it's been reported there could be spot shortages. Region to watch: a) along California beaches; and, b) the neighborhoods around Disneyland.

Texas freeze: gas and power sellers clean up! Link to Reuters. Texas consumers got played. ET was one of the biggest winners. Others:

• leading energy trader Vitol,
• gas suppliers:
• KMI
• EPD
• ET (already noted)
• ET reaped $2.4 billion windfall from Texas freeze; they simply played by the rules set by the regulators. Meanwhile to the north, folks want the DAPL shut down. Karma.
  
• oil companies:
• oil giant BP,
• banks:
• Goldman Sachs
• BofA
• Macquarie Group

Reminder: earlier story suggest Texas will post record amount of electricity demand this summer.

Farmers, Biden and taxes: not good news -- this is just part of the bad news. Other bad news includes talk about the death tax, and capital gains step-up, and capital gains tax increases.

• farm-district democrats raise caution flag on capital-gains tax plan -- WSJ;
• Biden plan would limit longstanding tax break used by farmers -- WSJ;

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- The Early Market Edition -- May 7, 2021

Jobs: "they're" still trying to figure this out. Hmmmm. At some point, the politicians will explain this. My hunch: top US economist and climate specialist AOC will have the answer by the end of the day. And they can still predict the exact global temperature one hundred years from now. 

Montana: first state to end "supplemental" unemployment insurance. South Carolina now joins Montana in that decision. Link here.

My two cents: I'm not buying the "unemployment pays so much it's not worth returning to work." I think it's much more than that. I agree with those who suggest that "employers will not pay anything to hire workers." [But having said that, it still begs the question: how could the analysts be so wrong. For the archives:

• analysts across the board predicted April jobs gains to be somewhere between 750,00 and 1.25 million
• actual number: 266,000]

My sentiment exactly:

Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy: the other day, it was reported that Los Angeles was shutting down its largest vaccine administration center -- LA Dodger Stadium. Today: in Orange County -- that's south of Los Angeles -- and elsewhere in California, authorities are closing mass vaccination sites as bookings drop. Going to Plan B.

Texas: ERCOT expects record power demand in Texas this summer. Link to Charles Kennedy. 

Energy crisis no one is talking about: if you have time for just one essay today, this one may be it. Link here to Gail Tverberg. If I remember, it will be re-posted as a stand-along post.

Jobs, States, And Covid -- May 7, 2021

You will have to "copy and paste" this URL to get to the site: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/05/06/report-blue-states-lost-double-jobs-red-states-during-pandemic/. 

The chart:

See if you see what I see.

Note: A 5-Day Frack? Hess? May 7, 2021

The Hess EN-Labar wells are tracked here. 

Today Hess reported this well:

• 37062, F/A, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-5, Alkali Creek, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 138K 3/20; fracked 10/21/20 - 10/26/20; 6.6 million gallons of water, a small frack; 81.2% water by mass;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	20542	20607	9218	43624	38020	5604
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	23373	23373	9575	39584	33969	5615
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	23878	23818	9227	38090	35156	2934
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	31376	31555	35326	50413	49775	638
BAKKEN	11-2020	23	38671	38348	37752	57117	55161	1956

One Well Coming Off The Confidential List -- Friday, May 7, 2021

Jobs forecast: the miss by the analysts was the worst in 23 years. 

How does this happen?

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Mailbox money: readers -- okay, a reader -- are writing me telling me that their royalty checks have increased significantly. 

Active rigs:

$64.93	5/7/2021	05/07/2020	05/07/2019	05/07/2018	05/07/2017
Active Rigs	17	20	64	61	49

One well coming off the confidential list -- Friday, May 7, 2021: 12 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 117 for the year:

• 37062, F/A, Hess, EN-Labar-154-94-1003H-5, Alkali Creek, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 138K 3/20;

RBN Energy: when it comes to FERC, oil and gas really are distinct.

Here at RBN, we’ve built our analytics around the concept that hydrocarbon commodity markets — crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs — are fundamentally and closely linked. That’s why in all that we do, we emphasize that, in order to have an understanding of one market, you must also be competent in the others. That can be difficult at times when not only the market structure, but the very rules governing the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of oil and natural gas transportation are so different from each other. For example, consider the many contrasts between how oil and natural gas pipelines are regulated. Today, we look at how federal oversight of pipelines has evolved and why it matters for folks trying to move a barrel of crude oil or an Mcf of natural gas from Point A to Point B.

Regulation is a funny thing (as in “funny-peculiar,” not “funny-ha-ha”). Some see the legalities and nuances of regulations as issues for pipeline attorneys to stay up late worrying about, but that’s not how it really works for a heavily regulated sector like interstate pipelines. For midstream companies and the shippers that use their pipelines, regulation matters as much as gravity does to an airline — it’s not something that the CEO wants to think about every day, but it’s a set of rules that can be lethal if not adequately appreciated. Cheap fares may get people on an airliner, but if the airline forgets about gravity, the outcome may not be good. In the case of regulation, forgetting about it can put a pipeline company out of business (or at least make it pay some humongous penalties).

EOG -- Update -- Correction -- May 7, 2021

First things first: I completely missed this. A reader caught my error. EOG paid a special dividend of $1.00 in addition to declaring its regular dividend.