Most-Under-Reported Energy Story Today -- April 21, 2021

Gasoline demand, link here. 

Most recent one week, daily average: 9.103 million b/d.

And driving season is yet to begin. 

Huge. 

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Landman's Life

Link here.

Baker Hughes 1Q21 Earnings Beat Estimates, Increase Year-Over-Year; Gasoline Demand -- Most Under-Reported Energy Story Today -- April 21, 2021

Link here.

• 1Q21: 12 cents vs 11 cents forecast; and 11 cents one year earlier;
• revenue: $4.782 billion vs $4.797 billion forecast; one year earlier: $5.425 billion;
  
• one year earlier would have been just before the bottom fell out with the Covid-19 pandemic.

BC: before Covid.

AD: after Donald.

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Most Under-Reported Energy Story Today

Gasoline demand, link here. 

Most recent one week, daily average: 9.103 million b/d.

And driving season is yet to begin. 

Huge. 

A Closer Look At A BR Old Hickory Well In Sand Creek -- April 21, 2021

Over at "Wells of Interest" I post production data for wells that might shed a little bit of light on the Bakken and unconventional / tight oil.

Here's another one. I assume I've posted this one elsewhere, and it may even posted at "wells of interest" and I've lost track of it. Whatever. It's worth taking another look at this well drilled over a decade ago and still going (relatively) strong.

The well:

• 18662, 2,145, BR, Old Hickory 43-34H, Sand Creek, t5/10; cum 457K 2/21;

The NDIC map suggests there are least eleven more drilling locations in this 1280-acre (two-section) drilling unit. 

I'll post the full production profile elsewhere, but note the most recent twelve months:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	2381	2354	1075	14495	14425	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	3372	3387	1455	16082	16005	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	10	162	0	227	200	175	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	8	334	277	3	1991	1974	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	26	1580	1640	663	5826	5761	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	2643	2924	942	8349	8275	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	12	1709	1316	601	5430	5400	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	26	1043	1289	203	4652	4160	427
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	2059	1899	937	7238	7164	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	1858	1884	552	6965	6888	0

Back in 2016:

BAKKEN	5-2016	31	8578	8653	1796	14081	14004	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	7902	7872	1737	11156	11081	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	8874	8579	1929	12874	12797	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	5698	6184	2355	10490	10418	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	6677	6501	3044	5338	4731	530
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	10784	10549	4552	14291	3126	11088
BAKKEN	11-2015	2	393	493	0	170	165	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	11	1618	1803	76	2614	1220	1367
BAKKEN	9-2015	20	3435	3173	748	2314	1497	767
BAKKEN	8-2015	1	13	0	10	25	23	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	4232	4366	977	6692	825	5790
BAKKEN	6-2015	28	3584	3730	924	6837	590	6178
BAKKEN	5-2015	25	5300	5081	2059	9475	1523	7890

Initial production unremarkable:

BAKKEN	11-2010	8	2388	2511	468	2904	2434	470
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	8811	8690	1078	13546	9998	3548
BAKKEN	9-2010	24	7655	7842	1223	15409	15409	0
BAKKEN	8-2010	31	13267	12992	2343	21293	16547	4746
BAKKEN	7-2010	31	15230	15307	1169	22406	12975	9431
BAKKEN	6-2010	30	19641	19601	1678	16835	520	16315
BAKKEN	5-2010	25	20684	20530	1299	10134	3455	6679

The frack in 2010:

• four separate entries in the file report: 10 stages, 2 stages; 4 stages; 4 stages on four separate days, April 23, 2010 - April 26, 2010, inclusive:
• 10 stages, 943,660 lbs proppant;
• 2 stages; 236,096 lbs proppant;
• 4 stages; 463,251 lbs proppant;
• 4 stages; 479,398 lbs proppant.

The graphic:

Surprise, Surprise -- US Equity Markets Reverse Direction -- April 21, 2021

The US equity markets: completely unexpected. After two days of profit-taking, and futures pointing toward a third day of "red," all four major indices suddenly turn green. Third stock I checked:

• UNP: up 2.14%; up $4.72; trading over $225. Ended up hitting a new high, but then settled back a bit. Closed at $223.56.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

For investors:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.566. In a "trading" range.
  
• DXY: link here. $91.14. Pretty much unchanged all these months.
  
• Silver: link  here. $26.53.
• CBOE volatility index: link here. 17.66. 

Later, at the close:

• wow, that "pullback" did not last long; all of two days. All four major indices up nicely at the close.
• Dow: up 316 points; closes back over 34,000;
• S&P 500: closed up 38 points; close to the 10:1 rule;
• NASDAQ: nice participation; up 164 points at the close;
• WTI: down 2.5%; closed just above $61
• OKE: up over 3%;
• MNRL: up almost 2%; nice; 
• nothing else matters today. LOL. Time to watch the movie. LOL.
  

Afternoon movie: The Great Gatsby. Watching The Great Gatsby, I was curious what others thought might be the better movie. One opinion here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.09	4/21/2021	04/21/2020	04/21/2019	04/21/2018	04/21/2017
Active Rigs	16	30	63	59	49

One new permit, #38271:

• 38271, conf, Whiting, Platt 44-28-2H, Sanish, SESE 28-154-91, 699 FSL 279FEL
• other wells of interest in the immediate area:
• 19760, 853, Whiting, Deal 43-28TFH, t3/11; cum 178K 2/21;
• 18213, 3,308, Whiting, Platt 44-28H, Sanish, t12/09; cum 579K 2/21; a stripper well;
  
• 18559, 2,123, Whiting, Platt 43-28H, Sanish, t4/10; cum 442K 2/21;
• 25322, 1,083, Whiting, Maki 41-33-2XH, Sanish, t9/13; cum 361K 2/21;

Thirteen permits renewed:

• Hess (6): four LK-Olson permits and two LK-Bice permits, all in Dunn County (LK = Little Knife) -- the assets Hess sold to Enerplus;
• CLR (3): three Chloe permits in Williams County;
• Whiting (2): a Olson permit in Williams County and a Helling permit in McKenzie County;
• NP Resources (2): two Cerkoney permits in Billings County; Tree Top field;
• 34814: target, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre spacing;
• 34813: target, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre spacing;

Coal, The Chinese, And John Kerry -- April 21, 2021

Today's theme: coal. 

Demand: global CO2 emissions (FWIW) are set to jump by 1.5 gigatonnes in 2021 -- led by a rebound in coal demand mainly from the power sector. It would be the second largest rise in emissions ever (FWIW). This economic recovery is anything but sustainable for our climate. Yawn.

• I picture Greta looking up how to spell gigatonnes in Swedish.

China: Chinese coal consumption to hit record high in 2021. Great news: at tome point the country will transition to natural gas. And, here.

• John Kerry: the Chinese are doing a great job with efforts to curb CO2 emissions.
• "I forget which" Kennedy: our grandchildren will never see snow again
• George Bush I: "no new taxes, read my lips"

Re-posting from yesterday.

Earth Day:

April 20, 2021. Three days of scheduled activities and Dionysian festivals begin today. Will lead off with Greta testifying before Congress. 

And, then, of course, the elephant in the room: coal. 

• global CO2 emissions are set to jump by 1.5 gigatonnes in 2021 -- led by a reboune in coal demand mainly from the power sector. Link here.
• India is the big story this week, re: coal. Previously posted. 
• India says it will use super-dooper ultra-clean critically clean coal to minimize emissions. I can't make this stuff up.
• this will be the second largest rise in emissions ever -- I guess -- except during the age of dinosaurs
• by the way, as CO2 levels increase, the effect of warming exponentially falls off -- obscure little factoid; if I find the source again, I will link it -- if I understand it correctly, the theory is that increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to warming, but the rate of increase actually declines as the concentration increases; not unlike a lot of things we see in biology; 
• the fact that Chinese coal demand is still increasing, rather than having peaked nearly a decade ago, puts into perspective Beijing's climate change challenge (and its 2060 net zero ambition)
• John Kerry: the Chinese are doing really well when it comes to talking about climate change;
• oh, by the way, Chinese oil demand continues to increase, also -- link here;

The Anthesteria festival of Dionysus, one of many, like our present day Earth Day celebration, was also three days, but took place a bit earlier, at the end of February. Earth Day activists moved the celebration to a more spring-friendly date so we could enjoy warmer weather in which to celebrate. 

The Greeks were looking forward to a good grape-growing season, and, of course, Earth Day participants are appeasing the climate gods. Or something like that.

Global And US Crude Oil Inventories -- April 21, 2021

The other day I posted this:

Saudi: oil in storage. Starting about now, Saudis will start increasing their domestic consumption of oil for generating electricity for air conditioning.

To continue the discussion, here are a few more links to articles posted since that graphic above was posted:

• global oil surplus diminishing, Arkansas Democrat Gazette, re-posts a Bloomberg article that may end up behind a paywall;
• there's a lot of unused oil stored up around the world, see previous data point; Bloomberg;
• physical oil market is flashing green; overhang disappears; HFI Research; full article at SeekingAlpha; 

From the Bloomberg article showing the global drawdown:

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The Weekly Petroleum Data: API and EIA

The EIA weekly petroleum report data is posted below. This was Julianne Geiger's "take" on the API report yesterday -- yes, it was another "surprise." We've talked about this before. Every weekly report seems to be an "unexpected" build or an "unexpected" draw. API yesterday:

• analysts forecast a 2.9-million-bbl draw;
• in fact, a build of 436,000 bbls (one can scoff at the fake precision)

EIA weekly petroleum report, link here:

• US crude oil in storage: 493.0 million bbls;
• US crude oil in storage increased by 0.6 million bbls from the previous week;
• refiners operating at 85% of their operable capacity
• the US imported 5.4 million bbls of crude oil per day last week, down by about half-a-million bopd;
• over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.9 million bopd, 5% more than the same four-week period last year;
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.1 million bbls; supplies at 2% above the five-year average;
• jet fuel delivered: up a whopping 63% compare with same four-week pandemic-lockdown period last year;

It seems everything is pretty much unremarkable, except maybe two items:

• crude oil imports are still running 5% higher than four-week period last year;
• the marked change in jet fuel being delivered: one year ago, lockdowns were just beginning; major flight restrictions; this year, now, flying is getting back to normal (sort of)
• it will be interesting to see how fast things can change; 
• by the way, I wonder if Greta took a private jet to DC this week, if she flew commercial, if she sailed on a cruise ship, or if she rowed herself over her. I really don't know.  If asked, my hunch is she would respond along this line (a huge "thank you" to a reader"
  

After the report, WTI recovers slightly but still down 1%; trading right at $62. 

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 41	March 3, 2021	-24.20%
Week 42	March 10, 2021	-29.80%
Week 43	March 17, 2021	-36.20%
Week 44	March 24, 2021	-35.40%
Week 45	March 31, 2021	-30.20%
Week 46	April 7, 2021	-11.70%
Week 47	April 14, 2021	24.80%
Week 48	April 21, 2021	62.90%

WTI Continues Downward Trend; Active Rig Count Back To Sixteen; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- April 21, 2021

Lo siento. I may have to quit blogging. LOL. In the past two days I posted two unrelated items I should have never have posted / wish I had never posted. They were opinions so in that sense no big deal. Not factual errors. But the two opinions were completely off-base. I already mentioned the DAPL comment I wish I had not posted; now it's Apple. 

I suggested yesterday that I was very, very disappointed in Apple's special event. Perhaps it was the presentation, I don't know, but after looking at the announcements, I am quite impressed with Apple's new hardware. More later.

• Apple debuts incredibly thin iMac with M1 chip -- Yahoo!Finance, Daniel Howley.
• the all-new iMac -- Apple press release.

Anthem: raises its divided from 95 cents quarterly to $1.13. Earnings report. Shares surging over past two days despite a down market overall.

• EPS: $7.01 vs $6.86 forecast; $6.48 one year ago.
• an earnings surprise of 2.2%
• revenue: $32.1 billion; missed estimates by 3.42%; one year ago: $29.45 billion;

Nicked: Nikola's stock selloff accelerate; shares fall below $10; weren't they the ones with the truck rolling downhill?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Flying high: American Airlines is bringing back all pilots; hiring new pilots for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Link here. Shares of AAL up a bit today; trading above $20.

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Back to the Bakken

DAPL, the state intervenes: finally, Reuters picks up the story. Direct to Reuters here.

Active rigs:

$61.16	4/21/2021	04/21/2020	04/21/2019	04/21/2018	04/21/2017
Active Rigs	16	30	63	59	49

No wells coming off confidential list.

RBN Energy: Appalachia gas flows to the midwest rising, but constraints loom, part 5. 

This time last year, Appalachian natural gas production was approaching a steep springtime ledge as regional prices sank below economic levels and producers responded with real-time shut-ins. This year to date, regional gas prices have averaged $0.80-$0.90/MMBtu above 2020 levels for the same period, and production has been averaging more than 1 Bcf/d above year-ago levels. 

If production holds steady near current levels, the year-on-year gains would just about double to ~2 Bcf/d by mid-May, which is when the bulk of the springtime curtailments first took effect in 2020. This, just as Northeast demand takes its seasonal spring plunge, which means regional outflows are poised to rise in the coming weeks, potentially to record levels. How much more can the Appalachian takeaway pipelines absorb? In today’s blog, we continue our analysis of outbound capacity utilization, this time focusing on the routes to the Midwest.