34974, 2,403, WPX, Young Bird 34-27HQL, Spotted Horn, a Three Forks well,
20' below the top of the Three Forks; less than two full days to drill
the vertical; less than a full day to drill the curve; less than a full
three days to complete the lateral (wow); target window, 20-feet thick; 50 stages; 8.5 million lbs, t1/19; cum 490K 12/20; 51K month; recent production:
23108, 767, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 529K 12/20; off line 11/18; remains off line 11/19 (although 11 days in 6/19); back on line 12/19; recent production:
31563, IA/1,137, Submariner Federal 5-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 15K in 25 days; cum 118K 1220; TD = 27,665 feet, three-section lateral; 101 stages; 16.1 million lbs; see this post; remains off line 10/20; recent production:
37286, drl/A-->AL/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, 33-053-09327; t--; cum 142K in 2.5 months; cum 162K 12/20; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/9/20; 7 million gallons of water; 70% fresh water by mass; produced water, 14% by mass.
At the earnings call for 4Q20, CLR said they would be drilling 56 wells in the Long Creek Unit with two rigs. CLR has just added permits for seven more LCU wells: 56 + 7 = 63 wells.
Seven new permits, #38168 - #38174, inclusive --
Operator: CLR
Field: Long Creek (Williams)
Comments:
CLR has permits for seven LCU Foster Federal FIU wells in the Long Creek unit, NWNE 28-153-99
the bullet train is now estimated to cost upwards of $100 billion;
original budget, about $30 billion
This is just the beginning:
A 65-mile section of California’s bullet train through the San
Joaquin Valley that a contractor assured could be constructed much more
cheaply — with radical design changes — has become another troubling and
costly chapter in the high-speed rail project.
The segment runs across rivers, migratory paths for
endangered species and an ancient lake bed through the length of Kings
County, a fertile agricultural belt south of Fresno. Before awarding a
contract for the section, the California High-Speed Rail Authority and
its consultants knew about these sensitive issues and prepared lengthy
environmental reports aimed at accelerating construction by avoiding
legal obstacles.
But in 2014, when the rail authority awarded the
contract, it went with the lowest bidder — a Spanish company named
Dragados — which promised $300 million in cost savings by altering the
design that the authority had proposed to regulators.
Seven
years later, these changes have been largely abandoned and have
contributed to more than $800 million in cost overruns on the Kings
County segment. That figure is 62% above the contract price tag, which
the rail authority has agreed to pay.
So much more. What a debacle. But it's a given that the Biden administration, unlike Trump, will continue funding this white elephant for Californians. Makes so much less sense than the Keystone XL but it's all politics.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
This is not an investing site. I follow the operators in the Bakken to help me understand the Bakken. Different operators do things differently.
Three companies that seem best aligned to do well in an environment of rising oil prices. Two of the companies will by minimally impacted by a DAPL shutdown. I don't know about the third. It's very possible a DAPL shutdown could actually improve the situation for one or two of these three companies.
The three companies: CLR, Hess, and MRO, in alphabetical order.
I am not recommending that individuals invest in these companies. I find them interesting from a "Bakken" point of view and not from an investing point of view.
30-second elevator speech for these three:
Hess: slow and steady; stay true; no sharp turns; lots of natural gas, production, gathering, and processing;
MRO: some of the best sites in the Bakken; many fields are excellent fields for re-fracking;
CLR: damn the torpedoes; full speed ahead; more rigs; a bit more fracking; "unitized" locations by another name;
The Bakken holds 500 billion bbls of
OOIP. Ten percent is definitely recoverable. Harold Hamm once suggested
the Bakken held upwards of one trillion bbls of OOIP but then backed
off. The "500" number comes from a paper written years ago, never
vetted, never published. With new data, one does wonder if 500 is off by
half.
Early in the boom, it was expected that 1 - 3% of OOIP
would be recovered/produced through primary production. It didn't take
long for Whiting to show that 10% was easily achievable, and now there
are estimates that percent recoverable through primary production could
be much, much higher. But let's stick with the conservative numbers.
OOIP: 500 billion bbls
primary production, 10%: 50 billion bbls
Bakken production: one million bbls / day = 365 million bbls/year
do the math: (50 billion bbls ) / (365 million bbls/year) = 50,000 / 365 = 140 years of drilling and CBR
Now
let's assume primary production is 20% and let's assume OOIP remains
the same. Let's assume that production drops to an average of 250
million bbls/year for various reasons (Biden policies; EVs; pipelines
shut down, etc):
500 billion x 0.2 = 100 billion bbls
100 billion bbls / (250 million bbls/years) = 400 years and CBR
The law of big numbers.
If the numbers seem impossible, remember that they were drilling in North Dakota for sixty years before the Bakken became a "thing." And the Bakken dwarfs the other plays in North Dakota.
*********************************************** Work To Be Done
Some of the wells in the graphic above, working from west to east.
21450, 1,600, MRO, Jessica USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/12; cum 369K 1/21;
37771, conf, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay,
37774, conf, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay,
18230, 552, MRO, Fisher USA 21-5H, Reunion Bay, t11/09; cum 323K 1/21; perhaps a subtle increase in production after coming back on line, 9/20;
37857, loc, MRO, Morgan USA 11-5TFH, Reunion Bay,
37654, drl, MRO, Albert USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay,
37655, drl, MRO, Joba USA 31-5H, Reunion Bay,
21479, 1,753, MRO, MHA USA 11-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 343K 1/21;
37787, drl, MRO, Watterberg USA 41-5TFH, Reunion Bay,
30512, 3,255, MRO, Gaynor USA 34-33H, Reunion Bay, t2/17; cum 405K 7/20; off line 7/20; remains off line 1/21;
30516, 1,536, MRO, Hannah USA 31-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/16; cum 465K 1/21;
18191, 613, MRO, Raymond USA 41-4H, Reunion Bay, t12/09; cum 392K 1/21;
37799, drl, MRO, Gracie USA 11-3TFH, Reunion Bay,
37801, drl, MRO, Brusseau USA 11-3TFH, Reunion Bay,
18378, 577, MRO, Henry Charging USA 21-3H, Reunion Bay, t4/10; cum 559K 1/21;
29759, 2,456, MRO, Steinhaus 24-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/15; cum 312K 1/21;
29760, 2,267, MRO, Halvorson 34-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/15; cum 346K 1/21;
Here in Texas, the snow is melting, the power is back on, and some of
us even have drinkable water. We’ll be dealing with the aftermath of
the 2021 Deep Freeze for months, and talking about the insane natural
gas and power prices for as long as gas and power markets exist. One
thing you have not heard much about during these crazy few days is
propane. And given what we’ve been through, no news is good news. Sure,
it was impossible to exchange a tank at the local Quickie Mart, and
there were sporadic reports of delayed propane deliveries and local
shortfalls.
But even up in the coldest Midwest states, there were no
market meltdowns, no skyrocketing prices.
Instead, propane has been the
go-to fuel to keep folks warm, to get energy production moving again by
defrosting wellheads and pipeline valves, and even to get restaurants
back on their feet. It’s always dangerous to declare a winter victory
with a few weeks left to go in the season, but today we’ll take that
risk.
Not-ready-for-prime-time. Will be edited once Sophia finishes with her schoolwork.
Is there a disconnect here? The "surging" price of oil would suggest this would be the very time that the future of EVs would look even better and share prices of companies like Tesla should be surging in response.
The paradox: the price of oil is surging; folks are talking about oil demand exceeding supply by the end of the year; more and more EVs coming on line, we have most-friendly EV administration in the White House; crude oil and propane pipelines are being shut down, and yet, EV companies are coming under huge pressure. This should be the moment for EVs to shine. What's going on?
Commentary: GE was a high-flying stock once upon a time. I'm not sure what the tipping point was but certainly buying Alstom was in the mix. Running through the headlines this morning, I'm seeing things that suggest we may see the same thing happen to GM. But GM won't be alone.
These are four items that got my attention over the past ten days:
the Texas Deep Freeze revealing the Achilles' heel of renewable energy;
NASDAQ plummeting over last few days; e.g., TSLA shares dropping like a rock;
the price of oil; projections for oil demand by the end of the year;
Daimler's rollout of a 250-mile range 18-EV-wheeler;
Warren Buffett's views about high-capital intensive industries;
Here those data points are in graphic form or video.
Texas deep freeze:
NASDAQ plummeting as interest rates trend higher but still at relative record lows. Like so many things, the headlines give traders a reason for selling even if the facts don't fit the story.
Analysts see $70 - $75 oil by this summer / end of year (2021).
Daimler EV truck:
Yes, the BWM video is a few years old, but batteries haven't improved all that much over time, and as batteries have improved over the years, the realities of rare earth metals are becoming more concerning. The biggest concern? China holds four aces in this poker hand.
Finally, this:
Warren Buffett's views on capital intensive industries. Link here.
Some legacy industrial companies with an incredible history (think GE) are betting the farm on EVs (think Ford).
For me the tipping point came during the recent unfavorable event in Texas, the "Four-Day Deep Freeze"; seeing the range of the Daimler Cascadia; seeing the $50,000 BWM golf cart; and, no indications that anyone is addressing the issue of rare earth metals.
Bottom line:
Texas deep freeze revealed the Achilles heel of renewable energy: the Achilles heel: capital intensive and surprises [China]);
ordinary Americans cannot afford EVs; at the end of the day, EVs are luxury vehicles;
long haul truckers won't buy EV trucks if the range is 250 miles;
some legacy manufacturing companies are betting the farm on EVs
