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Tuesday, February 9, 2021

DUCs? -- February 9, 2021

Has anyone noticed how few DUCs are being reported as completed?  

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Fogerty's Factory

I don't know if folks are aware of this. For the past year, during the lockdown / quarantine / whatever, John Fogerty with his two sons and daughter are doing this. John Fogerty celebrated his 75th birthday this past year.


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Blacktail Dam and CCR

I'll have to check my journal, my diary. I don't remember the particulars. All I really remember is listening to CCR driving from Williston to Blacktail Dam as many summer weekends as I could. I was generally by myself.

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A Reader Writes

The reader shares this:

 ...and then writes;

Yeah - and then there's Killdeer, ND.  The high won't be above zero all week.  So, it'll be 7 below zero at noon.

That's colder than a freezer, not just colder than the fridge.

Bullish On Frackers -- A Counterintuitive View -- Out Of Ft Worth, Texas -- Forbes -- February 9, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Link here. Archived.

John Goff made his first fortune more than a decade ago, teaming up with his mentor, legendary investor Richard Rain­water, to buy up empty “see-through” office buildings for pennies on the dollar in the wake of the S&L crisis that began in the late 1980s. They went on to sell Crescent Real Estate for $6.5 billion at the 2007 peak and then scooped it up again a few years later at a discount amid the wreckage of the financial crisis. Goff, based in Fort Worth, Texas, is now chairman of $3.4 billion (assets) Crescent, and personally owns the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Dallas and the Canyon Ranch spa chain founded in Tucson, Arizona. He still loves high-end real estate, but today he’s focused on what he calls “the single biggest opportunity of my business career”—oil.

It’s a contrarian move, all right. Watch the financial headlines and you’d think the end of oil was nigh. Last April, oil prices went to less than zero for a day as crude in storage reached “tank tops.” America’s frackers have mothballed 60% of their drilling rigs in the past 18 months, while more than 100,000 have lost their jobs amid the bankruptcies of 46 producing companies—including the one-time shale champion of them all, Oklahoma City–based Chesapeake Energy. The plight of the American oil patch, Goff says, “is like real estate in the early ’90s. They had overbuilt, doubled the office space and were woefully overleveraged.”

Back in 2008, when oil hit a record high of $147 a barrel (and Big Oil made up 15% of the S&P 500), all the talk was of Peak Oil supply. Today oil trades at $53 and makes up just 2% of the index—and market watchers are pushing the idea that we’ve already passed Peak Oil demand. Goff, 65, laughs at such forecasts.

“Before the world does not need any more oil, we will suffer a shortage,” he predicts. The world may be burning nearly 10% less oil than the pre-pandemic 101 million barrels per day, but, he says, “don’t mistake Covid-related weakness for a secular shift.” Goff reasons that electric vehicles are still just a blip. “I think there’s tremendous pent-up [consumer] demand. People are really tired,” he says, adding that workers want to get back to their offices. “Oil and gas is going to come back with a vengeance.” Already, in Brazil, petroleum demand is above pre-coronavirus levels.

So this vulture has been circling, fully convinced that with the right assets, capital structures and incentive plans, oil companies can thrive. “We’re buying reserves in the ground at a big discount,” Goff boasts. His primary platform is publicly traded Contango Oil & Gas, of which he owns 24%. Goff oversees the holding company as chairman; acolyte Wilkie Colyer Jr., 36, serves as CEO. In October 2019 they snapped up 160,000 acres of prime fracking land in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle for $23 million. About the same time, on the steps of an Oklahoma courthouse, they grabbed 315,000 acres from bankrupt White Star Petroleum (founded by the late wildcatter billionaire Aubrey McClendon) for $130 million. In November, they paid $58 million for 180,000 acres in Wyoming, Montana and Texas. Goff followed that up by merging Contango with another small oil company he controlled, Mid-Con Energy Partners. Assuming a conservative $45 per barrel, Contango is on track to generate in the neighborhood of $75 million in earnings (after capital spending and interest payments) in 2021, pumping roughly 25,000 barrels per day. So far, Wall Street hasn’t credited Goff’s bargain buying. Over the last 12 months Contango’s stock is down 34%, while the S&P oil-and-gas index is off only 20% and the broader market has surged 20%.

And then this:

Big Tobacco not only serves as a template for what oil companies can do right, but what they can do wrong. In 2018 Altria abandoned its focus on returning capital and spent $12.8 billion to acquire a third of vaping giant Juul Labs. Over the next two years, Altria wrote down that stake by two-thirds as federal investigations into Juul’s marketing to children ramped up. Meanwhile, Juul’s founders awarded a $2 billion special dividend to themselves and other pre-Altria employees. (Juul’s founders deny any wrongdoing.) 

Goff cautions that Big Oil could easily make a similar mistake. He points to BP, whose stock has declined by 35% since last February, when it declared its intention to reinvest into renewables rather than oil. Want to invest in renewable energy? Goff suggests Florida-based NextEra Energy, which operates America’s largest fleet of wind turbines and solar panels.

Much more at the link. 

From the article:

DAPL: USACE Asks For Two-Month Delay -- February 9, 2021

Link here.  


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I Have Become Comfortably Numb


My neighbor called the police because I was playing Comfortably Numb too loud. The police arrested my neighbor.

Back To Rig Counts -- February 9, 2021

And we've come full circle. Back to the future. The Red Queen. 

Link here. At link, click on the graphics for enlargement.


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North Dakota Oil Well Productivity
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Back to Body Counts

Vaccine Rollout -- February 9, 2021

CDC data posted on Tuesdays and Fridays. 

Raw data from the CDC, link here.



A

B

C

D

E

F



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Tuesday

February 9, 2021

62,898,775

3,590,975

43,206,190

788,573

21.96%

68.69%

Monday

February 8, 2021

59,307,800

0

42,417,617

1,206,680


71.52%

Sunday

February 7, 2021

59,307,800

3,200

41,210,937

2,172,973

67905.41%

69.49%

Saturday

February 6, 2021

59,304,600

924,300

39,037,964

2,218,752

240.05%

65.83%

Friday

February 5, 2021

58,380,300

890,625

36,819,212

1,615,502

181.39%

63.07%

Thursday

February 4, 2021

57,489,675

1,545,875

35,203,710

1,325,456

85.74%

61.23%

Wednesday

February 3, 2021

55,943,800

3,286,125

33,878,254

1,097,394

33.39%

60.56%

Tuesday

February 2, 2021

52,657,675

2,721,225

32,780,860

558,458

20.52%

62.25%

Monday

February 1, 2021

49,936,450

3,200

32,222,402

1,099,103

34346.97%

64.53%

Sunday

January 31, 2021

49,933,250

400

31,123,299

1,545,397

386349.25%

62.33%

Saturday

January 30, 2021

49,932,850

716,350

29,577,902

1,693,241

236.37%

59.24%

Friday

January 29, 2021

49,216,500

830,225

27,884,661

1,690,979

203.68%

56.66%

Thursday

January 28, 2021

48,386,275

1,155,325

26,193,682

1,541,048

133.39%

54.13%

Wednesday

January 27, 2021

47,230,950

2,836,875

24,652,634

1,111,640

39.19%

52.20%

Tuesday

January 26, 2021

44,394,075

2,975,750

23,540,994

806,751

27.11%

53.03%

Monday

January 25, 2021

41,418,325

6,775

22,734,243

885,588

13071.41%

54.89%

Sunday

January 24, 2021

41,411,550

0

21,848,655

1,310,665


52.76%

Saturday

January 23, 2021

41,411,550

1,519,150

20,537,990

696,269

45.83%

49.59%

Friday

January 22, 2021

39,892,400

1,932,400

19,841,721

1,392,433

72.06%

49.74%

Thursday

January 21, 2021

37,960,000

1,969,850

18,449,288

1,924,007

97.67%

48.60%

Wednesday

January 20, 2021

35,990,150


16,525,281



45.92%




A

B

C

D

E

F



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses

Number of People Receiving 2 Doses

Number of People Considered Fully Immunized

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Tuesday

Feb 9, 2021

43,206,190

32,867,213

9,840,429


788,573.00

98.85%

Monday

Feb 8, 2021

42,417,617

32,340,146

9,518,015


1,206,680.00

98.68%

Sunday

Feb 7, 2021

41,210,937

31,579,100

9,147,185


2,172,973.00

98.82%

Saturday

Feb 6, 2021

39,037,964

30,250,964

8,317,180


2,218,752.00

98.80%

Friday

Feb 5, 2021

36,819,212

28,909,497

7,503,864


1,615,502.00

98.90%

Thursday

Feb 4, 2021

35,203,710

27,905,197

6,926,050


1,325,456.00

98.94%

Wednesday

February 3, 2021

33,878,254

27,154,956

6,436,931


1,097,394.00

99.15%

Tuesday

February 2, 2021

32,780,860

26,440,836

6,064,792


558,458.00

99.16%

Monday

February 1, 2021

32,222,402

26,023,153

5,927,847


1,099,103.00

99.16%

Sunday

January 31, 2021

31,123,299

25,201,143

5,657,142


1,545,397.00

99.15%

Saturday

January 30, 2021

29,577,902

24,064,165

5,259,693


1,693,241.00

99.14%

Friday

January 29, 2021

27,884,661

22,858,318

4,780,888


1,690,979.00

99.12%

Thursday

January 28, 2021

26,193,682

21,698,606

4,263,056


1,541,048.00

99.11%

Wednesday

January 27, 2021

24,652,634

20,687,970

3,801,053


1,147,640.00

99.34%

Tuesday

January 26, 2021

23,504,994

19,902,237

3,481,921


770,751.00

99.49%

Monday

January 25, 2021

22,734,243

19,252,279

3,346,390


885,588.00

99.40%

Sunday

Jan 24, 2021

21,848,655

18,502,131

3,216,836


1,310,665.00

99.41%

Saturday

Jan 23, 2021

20,537,990

17,390,345

3,027,865


1,430,031.00

99.42%

Friday

Jan 22, 2021

19,107,959

16,243,093

2,756,953



99.44%