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Wednesday, December 16, 2020

An XTO Mandal Federal Well With Jump In Production After Returning To Production After A Year Off Line -- December 16, 2020

This well is intriguing:

October 12, 2019: #20140, off line -- it's an XTO well; should be doing better; back on line 10/19; but not doing particularly well; off line 11/19; remains off line 9/20; now IA; 10/20 -- sixteen days, nice production; 

The well:

  • 20140, 1,841, XTO, Mandal Federal 41X-29C, Haystack Butte, t10/13; cum 195K 10/20: there's a lot of activity in this area; several wells on drl/NC status and FracFocus does not show any completions. This well appears to have a jump in production after being off line for about a year and not due to any neighboring fracking, but I haven't had a chance to check all the neighboring wells.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2020162434169925934483850
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20191610161745753386714622269
BAKKEN9-20191196023169331956672520
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-2019132650909
BAKKEN3-201926962124462832821980886
BAKKEN2-20192811711322957386833460
BAKKEN1-20193114001479118943643479297
BAKKEN12-20183112861228125043943548354
BAKKEN11-2018301241128112274283371429
BAKKEN10-201831141213521469496743640
BAKKEN9-20183013721230125147193954413
BAKKEN8-20183114241516134150113838848
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US Ports

Updates: see reader's comments explaining what I missed when posting the original post.



A most unusual economy.This morning -- or was it yesterday -- there was a report that US retail sales dropped in November.I can't reconcile that report and the headlines below.  Later: see first comment. A reader explained how this could all be reconciled. I feel like an idiot. LOL. Not the first time. But that's the purpose of the blog; to keep learning.

Flow of US imports continues to surge, now at twice the rate of exports, December 16, 2020.

Trade with China roars back as Americans are stuck at home, NY Times, December 14, 2020. 

Boxed out: China's exports pinched by global run on shipping containers, December 14, 2020. 

Port of Long Beach broke another cargo record in November, the fourth straight month is has done so, December 11, 2020.  

Near gridlock at San Pedro Bay port complex amid best month in 114 years for Port of Los Angeles, December 10, 2020.

China's export snag: containers are running short, December 10, 2020.

Port Tracker report highlights another monthly record and a projected annual 2020 increase, December 9, 2020.

China to ease shortage of containers, December 7, 2020.

Trucking, teamsters, and the San Pedro Harbor, December 4, 2020. 

Container shortages the biggest disrupter: where are all the empty boxes? December 1, 2020.

Global container shortage drives spike in shipping rates, but brings windfall for Chinese manufacturers, October 14, 2020.

There aren't enough containers to keep world trade flowing, March 18, 2020.

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Amgen -- December 16, 2020

I see that Amgen raised its dividend. 

  • prior: $1.60 (link here)
  • new: $1.76
  • increase: 16 cents / 1.60 = 10% increase
  • share price today: $228.44 (down $2.09)
  • after-hours: $230.27 (up $1.83)
  • $6.40 / $228.44 = 2.8%
  • $7.04 / $230.27 = 3.06%
  • new dividend:
    • record date: 2/15/21
    • payable date: 3/8/21

Amgen is an "expensive" stock but one can buy it "by the slice" through most brokers. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

This particular item caught my interest for two reasons:

  • the other day, there was an article that suggested 2021 will be a year for dividend increases and buybacks;
  • a 10% increase in a dividend for an "old" company is quite noteworthy;
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Chinese Flu-Related Hospitalizations Drop To Lowest Level In Two Months -- December 16, 2020

From social media today:


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Two New Oil And Gas Permits -- December 16, 2020

Active rigs:

$47.82
12/16/202012/16/201912/16/201812/16/201712/16/2016
Active Rigs1453675340

Three new permits, #38026 - #38028, inclusive, but one is a SWD well;

  • 38026, loc, MRO, Goddard USA 41-4TFH, McGregory Buttes, NWNE 4-147-94; 470 FNL 1520 FEL;
  • 38027, PD/loc, Koda, Ekin 26-1 SWD, Smoky Butte,
  • 38028, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Makowsky 8-31-30-158N_99W-TFH-LL, Dublin, SESW 31-158-99;

Two permits canceled:

  • Cobra Oil and Gas: two Neru permits in Billings County;

Two producing wells completed:

  • 35762, drl/A, Enerplus, Moss 149-93-21C-22H-LL, Mandaree, t--; cum 66K 10/20;
  • 35596, SI/A, Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H- TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 202K 10/20; the Enerplus Cloudy pad is tracked here; fracked 1/1/20 -- 1/21/20; 6.35 million gallons of water; 58.96% water by mass; another low water frack; see this post;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN10-2020313281532599260376593361722984
    BAKKEN9-2020282354623673232604379141069706
    BAKKEN8-2020282782427728239444198339867835
    BAKKEN7-202031255092548725745000
    BAKKEN6-2020171413714103153301870917696424
    BAKKEN5-2020261827918427230642152220282548
    BAKKEN4-2020302401123883271352617525063720
    BAKKEN3-20202931208310933423031208297261358
    BAKKEN2-2020541944112742041953746438
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Twelve Wells From Late September, 2020, Now Completed And Reporting; Some Operators In The Bakken Remain Very Busy -- December 16, 2020

Back on September 22, 2020, none of these wells had posted any production. Now:

September 22, 2020:

  • 35916, SI/A, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 110K in six months; cum 162K 10/20;
  • 35917, SI/A, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 150K 10/20;
  • 35262, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 10-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 48K 10/20;
  • 35263, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 9-23H, Epping, t--; cum 84K 10/20;
  • 35264, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 8-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 66K 10/20;
  • 35265, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 7-23H, Epping, t--; cum 89K 10/20;
  • 35266, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 6-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 62K 10/20;
  • 36485, SI/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 3-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 52K 10/20;
  • 36487, SI/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 5-23H1, Epping, t--; cum 38K 10/20;
  • 36720, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 11-14H2, Siverston, t--; cum 55K 10/20;
  • 36722, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 11-14H, Siverston, t--; cum 68K 10/20;
  • 37192, drl/A, CLR, Wiley 13-25HSL2, Pershing, t--; cum 51K 10/20;
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WPX With A Huge Mandaree Warrior Well; Small Frack -- December 16, 2020

The well:

  • 36259, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HS, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 242K 10/20; a couple of 36K months; a 41K month; fracked 2/2/20 - 2/17/20; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.3% water by mass; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2020313078630756133473561930981481
BAKKEN9-20203040836406991711548545433570
BAKKEN8-2020262838828358161893284428666619
BAKKEN7-20203127501276571615139436360890
BAKKEN6-20203035376354052020743803396780
BAKKEN5-20203135560353222343548499443400
BAKKEN4-20203025285252942392934718316740
BAKKEN3-2020141724517422173011928078269438
BAKKEN2-202028808523488600
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The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- WPX With Huge Omaha Woman Wells -- Squaw Creek -- December 16, 2020

The well:

  • 36820, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HC, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 82K over 28 days; fracked 8/1/20 - 8/22/20; 8.9 million gallons of water; 84.6% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20202882318819515851162518535750
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000

The well:

  • 36864, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HD, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 65K over 29 days: fracked 8/1/20 - 8/22/20; 8.8 million gallons of water; 84.6% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20202964477641945802069007619720
BAKKEN9-2020152552063073962553
BAKKEN8-20200000000
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Mid-Day Market; NASDAQ Hits New All-Time Record -- December 16, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The market: it's likely the three major indices will all end in the green today. Right now, 2:36 p.m. CT:

  • the three indices: 
    • NASDAQ: up 81 points; hits a new all-time record;
    • Dow 30: flat, oscillating about the "0" line;
    • S&P 500: up about 12 points
  • stocks in the news, look at this BNB: up 10% today; up $13;
    • DASH: flat; perhaps very slightly negative but the day is not over
    • TSLA: down about 1.65%
    • AAPL: flat; perhaps very, very slightly green;
    • AIV: has fallen another 7% today; on the day the news broke, AIV, trading at $40 fell precipitously, is now trading at $4.69; I still think this is incredibly "wrong" the way this was done; I don't have a dog in the fight (I have never invested in AIV) but talk about manipulating the market at a very high level; the good news: the company is now paying a 43% dividend (annual dividend of $2.03 for share that is trading for $4.70 -- LOL);
  • pipelines
    • ENB: down 1.3%
    • EPD: down 2%
    • ET: down 1.2%
  • pharm:
    • JNJ: flat; down about 0.2%
    • PFE: down 2% -- rollout issues; Bell's palsy; allergic reactions being reported;
  • oil:
    • COP: down 1%
    • CVX: down 1%

MDU: acquires Wyoming construction materials business. Just in time to start putting in the infrastructure for Biden's green energy plan. 

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Weekly EIA Petroleum Data Posted; Testing Whether Hydrogen Can Be Transported Using Existing Natural Gas Grid -- December 16, 2020

Link here. 

Weekly EIA petroleum data:

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 3.1 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 500.1 million bbls, about 10% above the
  • already fat five-year average;
  • crude oil imports averaged 5.4 million bbls per day, about 1.1 million bbls per day less than the previous week;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.2 million bbls; distillate fuel in storage remains about 11% above the already fat five-year average;
  • jet fuel product supplied was down 36% compared with the same four-week period last year;

********************************
Sempra And Hydrogen

Sempra testing whether it can transport hydrogen by pipeline.

  • Sempra Energy's Southern California Gas says it will field test a new technology which might allow hydrogen to be easily and affordably transported over a natural gas pipeline. 
  • The company says the technology would simultaneously separate and compress hydrogen from a blend of hydrogen and natural gas, transport the hydrogen via the natural gas pipeline system, then extract and compress the hydrogen at fueling stations that service fuel cell electric vehicles. 
  •  "This innovative technology could be a game-changer, allowing hydrogen to be distributed to wherever it is needed using the [existing] natural gas grid," says SoCalGas VP of clean energy innovations Neil Navin. 
  • The field test is scheduled to begin in March at SoCalGas' Engineering Analysis Center in Pico Rivera, California, with completion expected in 3Q21.
  • Sempra "has become a leading LNG exporter and developer while adding a high-growth Texas operation to its significant Mexican presence," Laura Starks writes in a bullish analysis posted recently on Seeking Alpha.

Also: think Oneok. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

****************************
AAPL

On a down day for the market -- very "mildly" down, I might add -- AAPL has just turned green -- 1:59 p.m. CT, December 16, 2020. This was shortly after the Fed released their minutes, stating what was expected: no change in the "Fed rate."

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Awaiting The Big Storm -- December 16, 2020

Even before the big storm this weekend, renewables cannot keep up in New England which is now burning both oil and coal to meet demand.

Link here. 


Meanwhile, Long Island is up to $71.



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Number Of DUCs Not Decreasing In The Bakken, Permian -- December 16, 2020

Note: the numbers in the spreadsheet below were transcribed from another source. It was difficult to read the chart and some of my numbers may be incorrect. I believe the most important columns ( the number of DUCs for the Bakken and the Permian) are accurate.

One of the most common memes regarding DUCs this past year was that the oil companies were making a major effort to complete DUCs to maintain production. 

The reader and I did not see that in either the Bakken or the Permian. Note the first column, month/year. 

Since January, 2020:

  • DUCs in the Bakken:
    • relatively stable, but did decrease from 843 (January, 2020) to 806 (November, 2020);
    • it matters which months you compare: from January, 2020, to July, 2020, the number of DUCs actually increased
  • DUCs in the Permian:
    • relatively stable, but DUCs actually increased from 3,409 (January, 2020) to 3,516 (November, 2020)

Bakken

Drilled

Completed 

DUCs

Permian

Drilled

Completed

DUCs

Jan 14

178

143

605

Jan 14

581

590

650

Dec 14

224

194

732

Dec 14

634

577

1041

Jan 17

62

52

781

Jan 17

352

259

1297

Dec 17

77

65

733

Dec 17

473

382

2034

Jan 18

107

72

768

Jan 18

487

403

2118

Dec 18

108

70

741

Dec 18

537

416

2937

Jan 19

120

71

838

Jan 19

585

476

3046

Dec 19

94

86

884

Dec 19

449

453

3417

Jan 20

99

94

843

Jan 20

448

438

3409

Mar 20

94

108

824

Mar 20

460

442

3447

Jul 20

18

25

860

Jul 20

149

101

3562

Oct 20

19

32

818

Oct 20

141

156

3536

Nov 20

20

32

806

Nov 20

148

168

3516
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