BR Looking To Have 30 Wells In A 2560-Acre Spacing Unit, Johnson Corner -- October 22, 2020

From the November, 2020, NDIC hearing dockets, this case, not a permit, but a case:

• Case 28598, BR, Johnson Corner-Bakken, 2560-acre unit with 30 wells; sections 28/33-151-96 & 4/9-150-96, McKenzie;
• there are currently 12 wells in that drilling unit;
• 6 go south
• 6 go north
• proposed: 18 new wells
• 9 go north
• 9 go south
• final:
• 15 total go north;
• 15 total go south;
• equivalent: 15 wells/1280;

The graphic:

Wells along the 33/4 section line, all 2560-acre spacing; note: numbers following the cumulative production of oil: the four sections; amount of proppant in millions of lbs; and, the number of stages. In general, BR is using 3.5 million lbs of proppant in 30 stages in these long laterals:

• 26962, 1,283, BR, Norman 11-4TFH ULW, Blue Buttes, t814; cum 269K 8/20; 4, 5, 8, 9; 3.5; 30;
• 27072, 1,924, BR, Norman 11-4MBH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; cum 378K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;
• 27073, 1,042, BR, Denali 11-4TFH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; cum 206K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;

• 27137, 1,872, BR, Denali 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 229K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;
• 27136, 1,200, BR, Denali 21-4TFH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 215K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;
• 27135, 1,680, BR, Norman 21-4MBH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 302K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;

• 27062, IA/2,112, BR, Norman 21-4TFH 3SH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; cum 327K 4/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 6.2; 30;
• 27061, 2,088, BR, Denali 21-4MBH 3NH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; cum 336K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 6.3; 30;
• 27060, 1,872, BR, Norman 21-4MBH 2SH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; c274K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.5; 30;
• 27059, 1,320, BR, Denali 21-4TFH 2NH, Johnson Corner, t9/14; cum 226K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.7; 32;

• 27085, 1,560, BR, Norman 34-33TFH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 245K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3,5; 30;
• 27084, 1,656, BR, Norman 44-33MBH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 347K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 7.0; 30; 
• 27083, 1,200, BR, Denali 44-33TFH, Johnson Corner, t7/14; cum 254K 8/20; 4, 9, 28, 33; 3.6; 31;

• 29051, 2,064, BR, Deking 1-8-34MBH-ULW, Camel Butte, t6/15; cum 324K 8/20; 27, 28, 33, 34; 4.3; 37; 
• 29050, 1,584, BR, Kings Canyon 2-8-34UTFH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 225K 8/20; 3, 4, 27, 34; 4.4; 37;
• 29049, IA/1,560, BR, Tetonorman 1-1-3UTFH ULW, Johnson Corner, t6/15; cum 265K 4/20; 3, 4, 9, 10, 4,1; 35; 
• 29048, 2,112, BR, Teton 2-1-3MTFH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 153K 8/20; 3, 10, 27, 34; 4.1; 35;

At the far south end, 1280-acre spacing:

• 18225, IA/625, BR, Norman 1-9H, Johnson Corner, t1/10; cum 313K 7/19; huge jump in production, from 1500 bbls/month in 5/14 to 20,000 bbls/month in 9/14;

At the far north end, 1280-acre spacing:

• 17680, IA/463, BR, Denali 31-28H, Johnson Corner, t2/09; cum 262K 5/20;

No New Permits; Nine Permits Renewed -- October 22, 2020

Active rigs:

$40.62	10/22/2020	10/22/2019	10/22/2018	10/22/2017	10/22/2016
Active Rigs	14	61	71	54	34

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:

• Bruin (5): five Wm Brown permits in Williams County;
• Nine Point Energy (3): three Lee permits in McKenzie County;
• EOG: a Burke permit in Mountrail County

EQT - CNX -- October 22, 2020

Updates

October 23, 2020: update;

EQT already is the largest supplier of U.S. gas, producing 44% more than its nearest competitor, Exxon Mobil Corp., according to figures compiled by the Natural Gas Supply Association. EQT pumped about 4 billion cubic feet a day as of the first quarter, while CNX produced 1.38 billion, the data show.

EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice, 38, is pursuing what would be his first deal since he took the top job in July 2019. The Rice family had previously sold their Appalachian gas company, Rice Energy, to EQT in 2017. But they became disenchanted with EQT’s performance and mounted a nine-month proxy fight, vowing to slash costs amid growing investor pressure for cash generation and better returns.

October 23,, 2020: natural gas prices could jump; EQT could be one to benefit most;

Original Post

In Other News -- October 22, 2020

Remdesvir: approved by FDA. Wow, that was quick.

SpaceX: could top Lockheed, Boeing as most valuable aerospace / defense firm.

McAfee: "a broken deal." Fails to trade above its $20 IPO price.

ACB meme: https://www.kapwing.com/explore/amy-coney-barrett-acb-blank-notepad-meme-template.

NDIC November, 2020, Hearing Dockets Have Posted

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020
Six Pages

 

Cases, not permits:

• 28585, Hess, Baskin-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; 4/5/8/9-156-93; Mountrail;
  
• 28586, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken and/or Manitou-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 14/15/22/23-155-94; Moutrail;
  
• 28587, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells in each; 1/2/11/12-146-94; 29/30/31/32-146-93; Dunn County
  
• 28588, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each; 25/36-146-94 & 30/31-146-93; and 28/29/32/33-146-93; Dunn County;
  
• 28589, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, setback changes; Dunn;
  
• 28590, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, setback changes; Dunn;
  
• 28591, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, setback changes; Dunn;
  
• 28592, MRO, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 3/4/9/10-147-94; Dunn County;
  
• 28593, MRO, revoke an Enerplus Resources permits, #37586, Cesium well; Dunn County;
  
• 28594, NP Resources, commingling;
  
• 28595, BR, Hawkeye-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 15 wells; sections 1/12-152-96, McKenzie;
• 28596, BR, Hawkeye-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 16 wells; sections 15/22-152-95, McKenzie;
• 28597, BR, Camel Butte-Bakken, 2560-acre unit with 30 wells; sections 27/34-151-96 & sections 3/10-150-96; McKenzie;
• 28598, BR, Johnson Corner-Bakken, 2560-acre unit with 30 wells; sections 28/33-151-96 & 4/9-150-96, McKenzie;
• 28599, BR, pooling,
• 28600, BR, pooling,
• 28601, Hess, pooling,
• 28602, Hess, pooling,
• 28603, Hess, commingling,
• 28604, Hess, commingling,
• 28605, Hess, commingling,
• 28606, Hess Water Services, SWD,
• 28607, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 10 wells; sections 25/36-146-94; Dunn County;
• 28608, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 9 wells; sections 5/8-146-93; Dunn County;
• 28609, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 8 wells on each of six 1280-acre units: sections 1/12; 13/24; and 14/23-146-94; sections 30/31; and 29/32-146-93; Dunn County -- 48 wells total;
  
• 28610, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, two wells on a 2560-acre unit, sections 13/24-146-94 & 18/19-146-93; Dunn County;
• 28611, MRO, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; a 1280-acre unit with 8 wells, sections 4/9-147-94; Dunn County;
  

Thursday, November 19, 2020
Four Pages

 

Cases, not permits:

• 28612, NDIC, altering lease-line units in the Dollar Joe or Wheelock-Bakken pool; sections 13/14/23/24/25/26/35/36-156-98; and sections 1819/30/31-156-97; Williams County;
  
• 28613, Crescent Point Energy, Wheelock-Bakken, 8 wells on a 640-acre unit, section 36-156-98, Williams County;
• 28614, WPC, McGregory Buttes_Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; S/2 sections 10/11, all of sections 14/15, and N/2 sections 22/23-148-94; Dunn County
  
• 28615, Medora Grazing Association, conversion of a SWD to a freshwater well;
  
• 28616, Shane and Sheralee Dolezal; conversion of a SWD to a freshwater well;
• 28617, Robert Dolezal; conversion of a SWD to a freshwater well;
• 28618, EOG, Squaw Creek-Bakken; revoke a WPX permit, #37547, Appaloosa #8HW, McKenzie;
  
• 28619, EOG, Squaw Creek-Bakken; revoke a WPX permit, #37547, Appaloosa #8HY, McKenzie;
• 28620, WPX, pooling,
  
• 28621, CLR, commingling
  

For The Archives -- This Blows Me Away -- I Did Not See This Coming -- October 22, 2020

In sports this would be a forfeit -- the opposing team did not show up. LOL. You can't win if you don't play. Even first graders know that. LOL.

************************************
Speaking Of Not Seeing Things Coming

UNP plunges. Loses $12/share. Down more than 5%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From The Street:

Union Pacific Corporation: shares dropped over 5% in trading Thursday after it reported its third-quarter 2020 results.

The company reported on Thursday a net income of $1.4 billion year-on-year (or $2.01 per diluted share) in its 2020 third-quarter, declining 12.5% from when it reported $1.6 billion in its 2019 third-quarter.

Union Pacific’s operating revenue was $4.92 billion, down 11% compared to the third quarter of 2019.

Estimated operating revenue of $4.94 billion was forecasted.

Business volumes, measured by total revenue carloads, declined 4% year-on-year to $2.04 million, compared to analysts forecast of $2.16 million. 

Additionally, the third quarter freight revenue declined 11% year-on-year compared to a 20% decline estimated by analysts.

The company’s operating ratio was 58.7% year-on-year, down from an estimate of 58.5%. [Say what?]

Two words: buying opportunity!

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Gasoline Demand -- October 22, 2020

Link here. 

The data suggests "we" could break below 8.5 million bbls gasoline per day next week for the four-week average. If so, not a good omen.

Notes From All Over -- October 22, 2020

Why won't you see Charlie Brown specials this year? Link here to The LA Times. 

Apple: the other day I mentioned that Apple TV+ was signing the biggest icons in Hollywood:

• more proof: Apple TV+ now owns Snoopy, Peanuts; link here;
  
• exclusive on Apple TV+ for the holidays; folks won't be seeing the classic Peanuts movies at Halloween, Thanksgiving, or Christmas this year -- this is a big, big, big deal
• I'll come back this later; how married men can play this;

Apple: another example -- Apple buys rights to "The Velvet Underground" documentary. Link here.

Haynes' documentary follows 1960's band "The Velvet Underground," which was headlined by Lou Reed and once managed by artist Andy Warhol. "The Velvet Underground" was known as the "house band" at the Factory, which was Warhol's studio that served as a hangout for artists and a venue for legendary parties.

"The Velvet Underground" will feature never before seen performances and recordings, Warhol films, experimental art, and in-depth interviews with key players of that time.

On twitter this morning, straight from the blog! Pretty cool. Graphic:

 

Jobless claims, link here: 

• prior: 898K
• revised:842K
• consensus: 865K
• actual: 787K

Market:

• ATT tops 3Q20 forecasts, link here;
• "all" numbers here; adjusted profit matched expectations but revenue beat;
• earnings: 76 cents; down 19% from same period last year; matched consensus;
• company estimated that earnings took a 21-cents-per-share hit due to Covid
• revenue: fell 5.2% y-o-y to $42.3 billion but that beat analysts' estimates of $41.6 billion
• in big scheme of things: pretty much in line with forecasts
• now owns HBO Max streaming: with 38 million in the US, that puts it ahead of the company's 2020 target
• wireless network added a much stronger-than-expected 645,000 new subscribers who pay a monthly bill
• for the archives: this comes before the iPhone 12 rollout
• forecast from the company:
• free clash flow of $26 billion or higher
• full-year dividend payout ratio in the high 50s%

Boom! Demand continues to boom for US consumers' two biggest ticket items -- new houses (in the suburbs, in the midwest, anywhere but in the big cities; and new cars (anything other than EVs); link here;

• despite huge demand for new cars, manufacturers can't keep up
• Tesla registrations plummet in California in 3Q20; Model S prices slashed two, maybe three times; hard to keep up with price cuts; still a $70,000 luxury car;

Investors:

• wow, for retirees complaining about dismal opportunities in the market, is anyone paying attention? disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
• AT&T
  
• T pays almost 8%; looks like that is guaranteed for the next year
• T sold off this past week; up 5% today in early morning trading

Others:

• Chipotle books record sales from online orders; WSJ;
• Quibi is shutting down barely six months after going live; WSJ;
• the streaming service, which served up shows in 5- to 10-minute “chapters” formatted to fit a smartphone screen, has been plagued with problems since its April debut, facing lower-than-expected viewership

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Apple: I mentioned earlier that I've never seen so many positive reviews about Apple products as I'm seeing now. I could be biased, seeing things that aren't there, cherry picking, but here's yet another review: "new iPad Air reviews: 'the best table for most people' with new Pro-like design and features at a low price." Link here.

One Well Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- October 22, 2020

 OPEC basket, link here: trading at $41.04

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$40.47	10/22/2020	10/22/2019	10/22/2018	10/22/2017	10/22/2016
Active Rigs	14	61	71	54	34

One well coming off the confidential list today: 

Thursday, October 22, 2020: 18 for the month; 18 for the quarter, 683 for the year

• 35970, drl/NC, Enerplus, Isle Royal 148-95-02A-11H-TF-LL, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 103K 8/20; total drilling hours, 115 hours = 4.8 days. frack data not posted;

RBN Energy: rising export demand will reduce US ethane rejection and goose prices, part 4. 

For the past few years, demand for U.S.-sourced ethane has been on the rise as petrochemical companies in the U.S. and abroad developed new, ethane-only steam crackers and retrofitted existing crackers to allow more ethane to be used as feedstock. U.S. NGL production was increasing too, of course, alongside growth in crude oil-focused plays like the Permian and “wet” gas plays like the Marcellus/Utica. But recently, drilling-and-completion activity has slowed to a crawl and NGL production has been leveling off, which means that less of the ethane that comes out of the ground with oil and gas will be “rejected” into natural gas and more will be separated out at fractionation plants. Today, we conclude a series on ethane exports with a look at U.S. NGL production, ethane supply and demand, ethane exports, and ethane prices.

Among the many extraordinary results of the Shale Revolution is that the U.S. has emerged as by far the leading exporter of liquefied petroleum gases (LPG; propane and normal butane) and pretty much the only exporter of ethane. (Norway exports small volumes.) In fact, the U.S. now exports ethane to steam crackers in eight other countries: Canada, India, the UK, China, Norway, Mexico, Brazil, and Sweden. 

The U.S. produced a record 2.2 MMb/d of ethane in July 2020, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and we estimate that around a million additional barrels per day on average this year has been rejected into the natural gas stream at processing plants and sold (at the price of gas) for its Btu value. 

About 290 Mb/d, or 13% of total U.S. ethane production, is currently being sent to other countries, with about one-third of the exports being piped to Canada and the rest being shipped to other foreign lands. About 80% of the shipped volumes is being sent out of Enterprise Products Partner’s Morgan’s Point export terminal on the Houston Ship Channel and the balance sets sail from the Energy Transfer’s Marcus Hook facility near Philadelphia.