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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

North Dakota Oil Production Regains Million-Barrel Mark -- The Bismarck Tribune -- September, 16, 2020

Link here. Renee Jean of The Williston Herald gets the byline but the link is to The Bismarck Tribune. Director's Cut posted here.

North Dakota oil production regains million barrel mark.

North Dakota reported 1.04 million barrels of crude oil per day for July and nearly 2.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. The state also reported a 91% gas capture rate.

That represents a 16.5% increase in production for both oil and gas, and a 19% increase in gas capture volumes.

But there haven’t been enough new well completions to make these production gains sustainable, North Dakota Director of Mineral Resources Lynn Helms said. 

It takes around 70 new wells per month to sustain production in the range of 1.25 million barrels per day. In May, however, just 12 wells were completed, Helms said. In June, 37 were completed and in July 59.

LEGO Set -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 16, 2020

The Bespin duel.

More on this LEGO set at a later date. For the archives.



Kavango Basin -- September 16, 2020

Two and a half decades ago, Nick Steinsberger invented what is now the modern-day frack in the Barnett shale. Now, the petroleum engineer extraordinaire is tasked with proving up untold billions of barrels of oil in Namibia’s Kavango Basin in what could very well be the world’s last-ever discovery of a massive onshore sedimentary basin.

Link here.

Archived.

Sturgis Rally, One-Month-Follow-Up -- September 16, 2020

Link here.

Sturgis Rally: August 7 - August 16, 2020.

At link above, set "search" for "yesterday."

Number of cases means absolutely nothing.

Number of deaths associated with Covid-19 "means more" but numbers are incredibly questionable. Criteria for diagnosis varies across jurisdiction.

But be that as it may, new deaths in last 24 hours:

  • Montana: 1
  • Wyoming: 0
  • North Dakota: 5
  • South Dakota: 8
  • Nebraska: 3
  • Iowa: 3
  • Minnesota: 6

Deaths per million population, and (ranking among 50 states and DC):

  • Iowa: 392 (23)
  • Minnesota: 352 (27)
  • North Dakota: 232 (38)
  • Nebraska: 227 (39)
  • South Dakota: 217 (40)
  • Montana: 132 (45)
  • Wyoming: 79 (49)

Graphics:




Hess With Two New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed -- September 16, 2020

Active rigs:

$40.05
9/16/202009/16/201909/16/201809/16/201709/16/2016
Active Rigs1162655632

Two new permits, #37844 - #37845, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Manitou (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has permits for two EN wells; an EN-Hegland well and an EN-Zunich well; sited in SWSW 33-156-94, 1300' FSL and about 500' FWL

Fourteen permits renewed:

  • Slawson (7): four Vixen Federal permits; two Phatkat Federal permits; and, one Phoenix permit, all in Mountrail County
  • Rimrock (4): one Nosepress permit, one Nollie permit, one Boardslide permit, and one Shifty permit, all in Dunn County
  • MRO (3): one Archie, one Erbe, and one Arnew permit, all in Dunn County;

Four permits canceled:

  • Slawson (3): one Voyager permit; one Wizard permit; and one Jugard Federal permit, all in Mountrail County
  • MRO: one Carl USA permit in McKenzie County

Gasoline Demand -- September 16, 2020

I'll be off the net until later this evening.

I've said this since I began blogging.

If I were allowed only one metric to track the US economy, it would be gasoline demand. I've defended that argument successfully in the past.

Today's release was not good. The line graph is the four-week average; the oval circles the one-week average. Generally, if the four-week average is bad, I look for the one-week numbers to give me a bit of optimism.

I'm not seeing it.  

Link here.


This is ahead of Hurricane (?) Sally.

Now, off the net until this evening.

Weekly EIA Status Report -- Distillates Continue To Be The Story -- September 16, 2020

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by 4.4 million bbls
  • US crude oil in storage: 496.0 million bbls, back where we were a couple of weeks ago
  • US crude oil in storage remains about 14% above the already-fat five-year average
  • US refineries are operating at 75.8% capacity, following Hurricane Laure, we now have Hurricane (?) Sally
  • US crude oil imports average 5.0 million bopd, down about half a million bopd; imports still averaging about 20% less than same four-week period last year (2019)
  • distillate production increased last week
  • jet fuel supplied was down 45.6% compared with same four-week period last year

Re-Balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Over/under 5-year average

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9


Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5


Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2


Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0


Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5


Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4


Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

17%

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

19%

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

17%

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

16%

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1


Week 89

August 19, 2020

-1.6

512.5


Week 90

August 26, 2020

-4.7

507.8

15%

Week 91

September 2, 2020

-9.4

498.4

14%

Week 92

September 10, 2020

2.0

500.5

14%

Weej 93

September 16, 2020

-4.4

496.0

14%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

5.7

0.109

-21.700%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

5.9

0.185

-16.900%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

4.9

-1.000

-20.200%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

5.4

0.500

-17.900%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

5.0

-0.416

-20.100%

 

Distillate fuel:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 1

August 26, 2020

1.40

24.0%

Week 2

September 2, 2020

-1.70

23.0%

Week 3

September 10, 2020

-1.70

20.0%

Week 4

September 16, 2020

3.50

22.0%

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

-47.60%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

-45.70%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

-47.10%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

-45.10%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

-45.60%