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Friday, September 11, 2020

The 2020 Oil Crash’s Unlikely Winner: Saudi Arabia -- Foreign Policy -- May 5, 2020

Link here. Archived here.

This article was published May 5, 2020. This article does not mention the $75 billion in dividend Saudi Aramco must pay Saudi Arabia each year for the next five years.

From the linked article:
It’s a year of carnage for oil nations. But at least one will emerge from the pandemic both economically and geopolitically stronger. 
With 4 billion people around the world under lockdown as the coronavirus pandemic grows, demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products is in freefall, as are oil prices. The price of a barrel of crude has been so low in the United States that sellers recently had to pay people to take it off their hands. As a result, oil-dependent economies are reeling. 
In the United States, the largest oil producer in the world, the number of rigs drilling for oil has plummeted 50 percent in just two months, almost 40 percent of oil and gas producers could be insolvent within the year, and 220,000 oil workers are projected to lose their jobs. 
Around the world, petrostates from Nigeria to Iraq to Kazakhstan are struggling and their currencies tanking. Some, like Venezuela, face an economic and social abyss. 
While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, however, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia. 
First, Saudi Arabia is proving that its finances can weather a storm such as this. Low oil prices are, of course, painful for a country that needs around $80 per barrel to balance its public budget, which is why Moody’s cut Saudi Arabia’s financial outlook last Friday. 
Saudi Arabia ran a $9 billion deficit in the first quarter of 2020. Like other nations, the kingdom has also seen tax revenues fall as it imposes economic restrictions to halt the pandemic’s spread. Last week, the Saudi finance minister said that government spending would need to be “cut deeply” and some parts of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic diversification plan would be delayed.

Much more at the link, but behind a paywall. 

The article does not mention the amount of money Saudi Arabia must spend each year for imports.  

Since the above article was published in May, 2020, these articles:

How Will Saudi Arabia's Dire Straits Affect Relationship With Pakistan? -- September 11, 2020

The dire financial straits Saudi Arabia finds itself in will have repercussions across the entire Mideast, Pakistan, India, and China. There's a reason "peace" is breaking out among strange bedfellows across the middle East. Are we seeing the beginning of a more overt episode in the clash of civilizations? The clash, of course, is nothing new. Samuel P. Huntington wrote of it years ago. Another book to re-read, What Went Wrong: The Clash Between Islam and Modernity in the Middle East by Bernard Lewis.

From the Hindustan Times:

Foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi crossed the red line last week when he asked OIC to “stop dilly-dallying” and set a deadline for the Saudi-led grouping of 57 Islamic countries [a most interesting phrase
“If you cannot convene it, then I’ll be compelled to ask Prime Minister Imran Khan to call a meeting of the Islamic countries that are ready to stand with us on the issue of Kashmir and support the oppressed Kashmiris,” Shah Mahmood Qureshi told a Pakistani news channel last week. 
The remark did not go down well with the Saudi leadership which had made Pakistan pay back $1 billion two weeks ago, forcing Islamabad to borrow from China instead
The Saudis are yet to respond to Pakistan’s request for a $3.2bn oil credit facility, part of a $6.2bn package announced in 2018. 

From Reuters

Remittances from Pakistani workers employed abroad hit the highest level for a single month in July, officials said on Monday, increasing 36.5% year on year, mostly thanks to less spending on Haj pilgrimages because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The global economic slowdown had raised fears that remittances, key to Pakistan’s dwindling foreign exchange reserves, would decline given falling employment in countries from where most of the money is sent - particularly Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

But July remittances rose to $2.768 billion, the State Bank of Pakistan said, adding the increase was up 12.2% from June, when remittance numbers were also high.

Bottom line: Pakistan has reason to worry.

Natural Gas -- Fill Rate -- September 11, 2020

 Link here.

From last week's Focus on Fracking, this was written about a week before the above data was published:

The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending August 28th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US rose by 35 billion cubic feet to 3,455 billion cubic feet by the end of the week, which left our gas supplies 538 billion cubic feet, or 18.4% greater than the 2,917 billion cubic feet that were in storage on August 28th of last year, and 407 billion cubic feet, or 13.4% above the five-year average of 3,048 billion cubic feet of natural gas that have been in storage as of the 28th of August in recent years.... 
... the 35 billion cubic feet that were added to US natural gas storage this week were in line with the forecast of a 34 billion cubic foot increase from an S&P Global Platts'' survey of analysts, but it was much less than the 77 billion cubic feet addition of natural gas to storage during the corresponding week of 2019, and also well less than the average of 66 billion cubic feet of natural gas that has been added to natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years.

I suppose the difference "this time" compared to 2019 and the average added during the same week over the past five years has to do with the marked decrease in oil drilling this year. Also, in past years, this is the time of year that the fill rate was starting to accelerate as summary usage was declining and operators were preparing for the winter demand. This year, the operators are starting from a much higher inventory (greater than the five-year maximum). All of this would help explain why the fill rate this past week is less than last year at this time and less than the five-week average.

East Coast Newspapers Are Reporting That North Dakota Is A Hot Spot For Wuhan Flu -- September 11, 2020

According to the Washington Post, North Dakota is reporting a surge in the number of people testing positive for coronavirus. That's quite understandable. The state has only recently received the testing kits and folks are only beginning to get tested. 

North Dakota was not aware of the global pandemic until late summer. News was trickling in but the ranchers had more important things to do during the calving season (calves are baby cows). It had been a particularly harsh winter and the womenfolk were up to their holster belts in snow trying to locate the cattle and steers that needed help. The menfolk were oiling their saddles. 

The first news of the pandemic would have arrived by telegraph but the winter storms knocked out the main telegraph line from Minneapolis to Fargo. When the Morse code operators on the East Coast first noted their "pinging" was not being answered, they asked President Trump if he would authorize the Pony Express to ride out to Bismarck to see what might be going on. 

Unbeknownst to the state governor, the Sioux were delaying travel on the main highway leading into Bismarck. No explanation was ever given by the Sioux except something to do with "sacred land." Once that was sorted out, a Mr John Steeplechase (probably an alias) arrived in Bismarck on Trigger (probably another alias). Mr Steeplechase said he was from the "Pony Express" and was there to help. He further said, if that wasn't clear enough, that he was representing the commander-in-chief who wanted to know what was going on with the telegraph operators. The president was mostly concerned his tweets were not getting through.

The governor sent out his own representatives and that's when they noted the downed telegraph lines. Mr Steeplechase was directed to return to Minneapolis, where he was to immediately telegraph the president (the state governor was unaware that President Grant was no longer in office), and ask for federal assistance in getting the telegraph poles repaired. 

The state governor also wanted Mr Steeplechase to ask the president for authorization to send out the 7th Cavalry to check up on the Sioux who seemed to be moving westward to Dickinson. They were most likely headed to Sturgis for the rally.

Some months later it was determined that the coronavirus had not reached North Dakota until Mr Steeplechase arrived in May. It was later learned that Mr Steeplechase was a super-spreader and thus the need for an alias. 

But that's getting ahead of the story. The 7th Cavalry headed west, intercepting the Sioux just west of Mandan. It was late May but the snow was still very, very deep, slowing their progress. The Indians riding Indian motorcycles were stuck in the snow-filled ditches.

Fortunately the telegraph lines were operational west of Bismarck and Cpl Smith of the 7th Cavalry telegraphed his superiors at Fort Lincoln near Bismarck. 

The 7th Cavalry was directed to proceed west for 137 miles at which point they would turn north towards Killdeer but to avoid contact with any Indians pending further instructions, and to definitely not even think about laying any pipelines. They were also to provide updates on the casinos.

In June, the snow-dusted blue coats made it to Killdeer. It was there that they first learned of a "wirus" east of Bismarck. Cpl Smith, not the sharpest bayonet in the drawer, thought they telegraphed "wire us" which, of course made no sense, because he was already wiring (slang for "telegraphing") Fort Lincoln. 

Coincidentally, while the 7th Cavalry was in Killdeer, a wagon train of Mormons showed up. They were headed to Salt Lake City but had become lost due to the wagon master being Amish and, as such, refused to use modern reckoning tools such as a compass or, heaven forbid (and it did), a smart phone. 

The wagon train wagon master had met Mr Steeplechase on the latter's ride back to Minneapolis about two weeks earlier. The quartermaster said that most of the travelers had come down with a strange "cold," but it made his job a whole easier. Because most of those that became ill had also lost their sense of smell, no one really complained about the taste (or lack thereof) of the food. The "cold" was a minor irritant for most of those who caught it, though a Mr. Joshua Brown, 83 years old with known history of heart and lung disease, had died after he was forced to return to his wagon. Some of the youngsters mistakenly thought he had hoof and mouth disease. Two of his wives knew otherwise. This "wirus" was nothing to take lightly.

In July, the first wagon train with "wirus" testing kits was dispatched from Minneapolis. By then, the number of "cold" cases were increasing exponentially, but again, without the "test kits" no one could tell for sure the nature of their malady.

The first wagon train carrying the "wirus test kits" became lost in the freak snowstorm of July 7 - 9. The 7th Cavalry was dispatched to search for that wagon train but were impeded by the million-head-herd of American bison (incorrectly called "buffalo" by the Washington Post) on the only open road between Killdeer and Bismarck in an attempt to get "above" the snow. The train master of that wagon train had discussed with Mr Steeplechase before he left Minneapolis the conditions in North Dakota. Mr Steeplechase was a bit "under the weather" and the train master, a Mr Bill Schuster, never had a clear idea of where he was going, much less what he was doing. He was a registered Democrat. 

The second wagon train was immediately dispatched upon the request of Cpl Smith who had now been elevated to a brevet colonel due to the fact that the rest of his detachment had come down with a serious cough and fever shortly after meeting that Mormon wagon train who had passed Mr Steeplechase some weeks earlier.

Suffice it to say, by early August, the state had received more than enough "wirus testing kits" to test everyone in the state six times. The Norwegians and the Germans said, "no way, Jose, are we going to be tested." Jose Garcia was the state's health director.

The governor, never one to let a crisis go to waste, immediately ordered that all Indians be tested. And that's when the buffalo chips hit the fan. The number of cases of "wirus" spiked, the newspapers back east got wind of the story, and started reporting that North Dakota was now a hot spot for something called "Covid-19." The governors of New York and New Jersey immediately banned travelers from North and South Dakota from visiting their states, despite the fact that to the best of their knowledge, no one from North Dakota or South Dakota had ever traveled east of the Mississippi. Those who attempted to go east, saw Minneapolis, didn't like what they saw, and returned home.

President Trump had planned to fly out to survey the situation but the helipads were covered with snow, best measured in feet. 

Interestingly, almost no one was dying of this strange disease in North Dakota or South Dakota, mostly because almost no one had "an underlying condition." But there were a lot of positive cases. It turns out that a lot of folks were getting tested two, three, and even four times over. The governor, to encourage volunteer testing, promised free beer to the first 640,000 residents who came out to be tested. The 230,000 under-age residents gave their "tickets" to those over 21 and thus many folks were tested two, three, and four times over. 

The overall rate of "wirus" in North Dakota appears to be no worse, no better than any other state (except perhaps for New York and New Jersey) but the the majority of testing was done in a two-week period following the governor's beer incentive, which explains the surge. The Norwegians and the Germans now refer to it as the "Swedish surge." The state's attorney general considers such joking to be a "hate" crime and says he will convene a committee to investigate.

The east coast newspapers, of course, are yet to report this, and so, it's being reported that North Dakota is a hot spot for the "wirus."

Epilogue:

Brevet Colonel Smith is running for state attorney general. Of New York.

The Amish wagon master opened a furniture store on the corner of 1st Avenue East and Broadway in Williston, ND.

Mr Bill Schuster, wagon master of the first wagon train, opened a Chevy dealership in Bismarck.

The quartermaster of the first wagon train opened a McDonald's franchise having lost his own sense of smell (and taste).

Mr Steeplechase came down with a severe case of the "wirus" and was hospitalized in Minneapolis for three weeks. He recovered and has been named the state's deputy assistant for health affairs, pandemic division.

Speaking Of Nobel Prizes -- Second Nomination For The Man -- September 11, 2020

Multiple nominations in same year for same prize, not unprecedented. 


From FAQs, over at NobelPrize.org:


***********************************
The Library Page

 A vignette from The Vertigo Years: Europe, 1900 - 1914, Philipp Blom, c. 2008, pp 190 - 192.
Baroness Suttner (1843 - 1914) was a remarkable woman. 
Born Countess Kinsky in Prague, she belonged to one of the Habsburg empire’s most illustrious families. 
Her father having died before her birth, Bertha’s childhood was dominated by her nervous and impulsive mother, whose addiction to gambling soon squandered the remnants of the family fortune. The young countess was forced to earn her living, even though her aristocratic upbringing had prepared her for little more than life in elegant drawing rooms. Enterprising from the start, she attempted to make a career as a singer and then as a music teacher. But despite her accomplishments at the piano it was difficult to make ends meet, and so the young woman chose the only alternative left for one of her class: in 1873, aged thirty, she became a lady companion at the house of Baron von Suttner in Vienna
What followed seems to have sprung off the pages of a romantic novel. 
The young, poverty-stricken noblewoman fell in love with Arthur von Suttner, her employer’s son
Faced with stiff parental opposition, she fled temptation and moved to Paris where she answered a newspaper advertisement for a position as private secretary to a ‘wealthy elderly gentleman’ whose melancholy, cultured personality enchanted her. 
He was Alfred Nobel, the industrialist and inventor of dynamite. After a few weeks, however, passion got the better of reason and the Baroness travelled back to Vienna and eloped with Arthur. 
Penniless, the couple were in no position to choose their place of exile and went to the Caucasus (today Georgia), where a friend of the family had a country estate. Twelve years of hardship followed, during which Bertha tried to earn money by penning occasional pieces for Viennese newspapers and Arthur contributed his part by giving French conversation and riding lessons.
During the Russo-Turkish War of 1877 - 1878, Bertha was appalled to see the misery of war in wounded soldiers and civilians, and she turned her home in Tiflis into a makeshift hospital. The impression was so deep that she resolved to devote the rest of her life to promoting peace.
By 1885, the couple’s financial situation and relations with the von Suttner family were sufficiently stabilized to envisage a move back to Vienna, where Bertha threw herself into writing an autobiographical novel, Die Waffen nieder! (Put Down Your Arms!), which appeared in 1889 and was an immediate bestseller. Her descriptions of anguished wives and mothers and massacred soldiers, of lives and hopes destroyed in the name of glory and fatherland, touched hundreds of thousands of readers, and suddenly Bertha von Suttner was a household name.
More than thirty novels followed.
Inevitably, Baroness Suttner’s fame was controversial …
…. undeterred by sexual politics, criticism, and caricature, Baroness Suttner continued her campaign. Her platonic affair with Alfred Nobel had not ended with her flight back to her lover, and she had kept up a steady correspondence with the older man, who had become a father figure to her….

…. conceived for use in engineering, in building tunnels, mines and roads, dynamite had also transformed warfare, and Nobel was acutely aware that a part of his fortune rested on destruction. He therefore resolved to devote his profits to the promotion of peace.
In 1892, [he and Baroness Suttner] hatched the plan of awarding a prize in Alfred’s name to peace activists. Nobel died in 1896. In his well he bequeathed his entire fortune to a foundation to award prizes in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature and Peace.
In 1905 the Nobel Prize was award to Bertha von Suttner, who painted an apocalyptic protrait of conflict in the age of industrial warfare.

Baroness Bertha von Suttner was the first woman to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Whom Are They Trying To Kid? -- September 11, 2020

Last post for the morning. Good luck to all. See you all later today. 

Re-balancing?

Link here

Silver -- September 11, 2020

Wow, I just received one of several monthly "coin" catalogues, this one from  The National Collector's Mint, undated but received September 11, 2020.

Look the prices of these 2020 BU Silver Eagle Dollars:

 Prices I've paid in the past for BU silver dollars, mostly from the US, Canada, and China:

2013

2013_Chinese_Panda

$33.00

Grapevine

2012

2012_Chinese_Panda

$35.00

Grapevine

2011

2011_Chinese_Panda

$70.00

APMEX

2011

2011_Chinese_Panda

$35.00

Private

2010

2010_Chinese_Panda

$35.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_StarTrek

$26.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_StarTrek

$28.00

Grapevine

2016

2016_Canadian Superman Silver Dollar

$23.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_Canadian_MapleLeaf

$20.00

Grapevine 

2014

2014_Canadian_Falcon

$21.00

Grapevine 

2014

2014 Canadian__Peregrine_Eagle

$24.00

Grapevine

2015

2015_Canadian_Red Tailed Hawk

$21.00

Grapevine

2015

2015_Canadian_Horned Owl

$22.00

APMEX

2016

2016_Canadian_Superman

$20.00

Grapevine

2016

2016_Chinese_Panda

$28.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_Canadian_Cougar

$22.00


2016

2016_US_Silver_Eagle

$20.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_US_Silver_Eagle

$21.00

Grapevine 

2016

2016_US_Silver_Eagle

$20.00

Grapevine 

2017

2017_US_Silver_Eagles

$22.00

GovMint

2017

2017_US_Silver_Eagles

$20.00

GovMint

2018

2018_Australian_Koala

$24.95

GovMint

2018

2018_US_Silver_Eagle

$22.95

GovMint

2018

2018_China_Panda

$27.95

GovMint

2018

2018_US_Silver_Eagle

$20.70

GovMint

2019

2019_US_Silver_Eagle

$19.50

GovMint

2019

2019_US_Silver_Eagle

$16.75

Littleton

2019

2019_China_Pandas

$23.00

GovMint

2020

2020_US_Silver_Eagle

$23.02

GovMint

2020

2020_China_Panda

$29.95

GovMint

2020

2020_US_Silver_Eagle

$27.40

GovMint

I'm not sure if that $70-2011 Chinese Panda was a typographical error -- whether it was two Pandas or if it really was $70. I know I was trying to complete my Panda collection at the time.

Doesn't matter. These are not investment coins. These are to be passed on to my grandchildren for them to do with them what they want.

It's Not All Doom And Gloom -- Hope Springs Eternal -- September 11, 2020

From a SeekingAlpha contributor: OXY has (mostly) solved its debt problem. Link here. Summary:

  • Occidental Petroleum has recently announced tender offers for another $3 billion in debt - paying off a significant portion of its next several year debt load. 
  • The company has an impressive portfolio of assets and continued impressive cash flow generation.
  • Over the next 11 years, the company can see its share price double every <4 years. 

If Vicki Hollub pulls this off, she needs to be voted most outstanding CEO of the decade, just above Elon Musk.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Nice rundown over at SeekingAlpha, last 24 hours. Link here

Brexit: UK strikes deal with Japan to secure first post-Brexit trade deal. Link here. It's a bit frustrating the US didn't claim that distinction. Whatever. There's a lot on his plate. 

LEGO: bless their hearts. I got a nice update from LEGO telling me they had not forgotten about me. I ordered an item that was on backorder -- that's fine with me -- they don't charge my credit card until it's shipped -- LEGO sent me a nice "e-card" telling me they had not forgotten about me, that they were talking to the warehouse folks and asking why my order had not shipped. LOL.

*******************************
The Literature Page

This is so cool. From The WSJ: the best books to ease your wanderlust. I was mostly curious to see if any of "my" books were on that list, and some were, and some very surprising books made the list. I'm impressed.

"My" books that made the list, WSJ readers' favorite travel books, alphabetically by author:

  • James Boswell’s “The Journal of a Tour to the Hebrides With Samuel Johnson” -- highly recommended for oldest granddaughter;
  • William Least Heat-Moon’s “Blue Highways”
  • Jack Kerouac’s “On the Road”
  • Jon Krakauer’s “Into the Wild”
  • Robert Pirsig’s “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” -- my all-time favorite, have read it several times;
  • John D. Tumpane’s “Scotch and Holy Water” -- unbelievable to see this make the list; I bought several copies years ago, worried it may go out of print;
  • Rebecca West’s “Black Lamb and Grey Falcon”

Wow, this is quite an impressive list. Several Bill Bryson books made the list but I've never cared all that much for Bill Bryson.

There should have been several books on Yorkshire, and maybe there were. If so, I missed them. 

Best travel movies, just to name a few, see also:

  • Midnight in Paris
  • Lost in Translation
  • Apollo 13
  • Lawrence of Arabia
  • Amélie
  • The Swimming Pool

For Those Afraid To Travel

Re-Posting: I Don't Want This Post To Get Lost In The Clutter -- September 11, 2020

Sometimes I feel like an idiot. Wow. A reader helped me out. And that's why I love to blog.

See this post from yesterday. From yesterday:

Hurricane Laura: landfall, August 26, 2020

  • September 1, 2020: refineries still getting back on their feet; but no major stories coming out of the region;
  • last week, Sunday, August 30, 2020 - Saturday, September 5, 2020

Keep those dates in mind when looking at the following:


One can argue that this was because of Hurricane Laura, but Laura had minimal impact on the oil sector compared to many, many other hurricanes since 2010 when data was first available. So, blame it on "lo-impact Laura" but that is hardly the answer ... and even if that's the answer, that's still not much revenue for Saudi Arabia.

A reader provided an explanation:

The Saudi spike of oil imports, go back to March when Saudi Arabia was negotiating oil production reductions that others (mainly Russia) that would not comply. Saudi Arabia decided to rent a fleet of VLCCs to dump ~100,000,000 barrels of crude on the open market stored in VLCCs.

Where is the safest place to park a VLCC full of crude oil without problems of pirates? Of course, the coast of USA, lowers cost of insurance. Plus Saudis own a big refinery that can process that crude. I believe that this was a simple business decision of storing a few billions of $$$s of crude oil safely, plus close to a market to eventually sell the crude rather then move the VLCC to Asia. VLCC propulsion engines use a lot of fuel 

The reader's comment and my reply was at this post.  

Wow, I feel like an idiot. The reader is exactly correct. I had forgotten all about that, and I had made a very, very big deal about that exact "thing." 

Anyway, the reader got it exactly right. I'm impressed.

But there's a cherry on top of this sundae. 

The next link will be to the must-read article for the day.

Wow, It's Friday Already -- Wow, That Was A Fast Week -- September 11, 2020

Oregon fires: threatening Portland, OR, metropolitan area. Link here

OPEC basket, link here. If it goes down today, I will be shocked. So let's look. Together. Yesterday the slide continued to, to $39.82. Today, the OPEC basket has stabilized: $39.83.

WTI: only four dimes from going under $37. Trending toward $20-oil, something that GS probably predicted a year ago. About the same they also forecast $100-oil. 

House of Saud: facing an existential crisis.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Drone program funding: this is a great story. City of Williston okays funding for drone program at TrainND. Link here. These Norwegians are smart cookies.

Active rigs:

$37.14
9/11/202009/11/201909/11/201809/11/201709/11/2016
Active Rigs1264665637

Wells coming off the confidential list -- 

Friday, September 11, 2020:

  • 37210, drl/NC, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HUL, Eagle Nest;
  • 36952, drl/NC, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HD, Eagle Nest,
  • 36843, drl/A,  Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-6, Tioga, t--; cum 62K over 3.5 months;
  • 36839, drl/NC, XTO, Muller 31X-12EXH, Alkali Creek,
  • 36838, loc/NC,  XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12A, Hofflund,
  • 36759, SI/A,  Whiting, Janet Adele 14-12XH, Sanish, t--; cum 75K over over four months;
  • 36314, drl/NC, BR, State Dodge 1C TFH, Dimmick Lake, 

RBN Energy: why Gulf of Mexico crude production isn't always steady as she goes.

The offshore Gulf of Mexico is often viewed as the rock-steady player in U.S. crude oil production. Unlike price-trigger-happy shale producers that quickly ratchet their activity up or down, depending on what WTI is selling for that month or quarter, producers in the Gulf base their big, upfront investments in new platforms or subsea tiebacks on very long-term oil-price expectations. Also, unlike shale wells, whose production peaks early then trails off, wells in the GOM typically maintain high levels of production for years and years. But don’t think for a minute that production in the Gulf can’t spike down, if there’s a good reason. GOM output dropped by 300 Mb/d, or 16%, from March to April as producers shut down wells in response to sharply lower oil prices, and a couple of weeks ago more than 80% of GOM wells were taken offline in anticipation of Hurricane Laura. Today, we look at offshore oil production ups and downs in a wild and woolly year and what’s ahead for the GOM.

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- September 11, 2020

Theme for the day: perhaps the second wave of Covid-19 was not the big worry. The big worry: the second wave of bankruptcies.

If this doesn't scare you, nothing will scare you: Joe Biden's tax plan.

I am going to clear out my in-box. Just the headlines, links now. I will come back to the stories later if the spirit moves me. The items below are just a handful of what I could have posted. So much is happening right now, it's hard to keep up. 

  • The number one international story right now is the existential crisis facing the House of Saud.
  • The number one Covid-19 story right now: Sweden defeats the virus.
  • The number one "business" story in the US, perhaps globally, right now, concerns EVs.
  • The number two "business" story right now: anticipation of the September 15, 2020, Apple event.
    • Best video today: Apple's Marina Bay Sands store in Singapore opens Thursday. Link here.

Sports:

  • women's semifinals tennis last night: incredible; some of the best sports I've seen in a long, long time; well at least since last week's FedEx PGA tournament; Serena Williams played her heart out; despite what announcers said, she did not have an injury; it's an old trick; will not advance
  • NFL football opener: a real -- how should I say this? -- a real dud; embarrassing;

And a moment of silence for victims of "9/11"  -- September 11, 2001.

So, let's get started

  • BP moves into offshore wind for the first time with a new strategic partnership with Equinor. Link here. And, here, Barron's paywall
  • ExxonMobil may need $15 billion in debt to service the dividend. Link here.
  • OXY warrants hit their all-time low this week: $2.33. Link here. Dropped over 10% yesterday.
  • EIA raises 2020 oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI. Link here
  • one of the world's oldest LNG deals is unraveling. Link here.
  • Century 21 files for bankruptcy. Never in a million years did I see this coming. Link here.
  • A scary number of retail companies are facing bankruptcy. Link here.
  • the mall meltdown is underway. Link here.
  • Peloton making some very, very interesting moves right now. Link here. Something doesn't add up or Peloton is striking while the iron is hot, as they say.
  • Warren Buffett makes rare move; invests in IPO; Snowflake. Link here. There's a bigger story here, a much bigger story here. This is incredible. 
  • fast food drive-thrus get a new shape up in coronavirus world. Google it.
  • FWIW: atmospheric CO2 for August, 2020, posted September 9, 2020 comes in at 412.55. Link here. A year ago? See this link.
  • A solar minimum is coming. No, it's not going to mess up the world, but if it does, Rachel will blame Trump. Link here.

A special section on EVs:

  • short seller compares Nikola to Theranos; intricate fraud built on dozens of lies. Link here.
  • a long-term Tesla bull -- and still a Tesla bull -- says the Tesla stock crash targets $75. Link here.
  • Tesla plans to start shipping out cars made in Shanghai gigafactory. Link here.
  • Tesla rises as UBS doubles price target ahead of "Battery Day." Link here.
  • making money from regulatory credits. Link here.  Previously posted.
  • S&P passed on Tesla because it was profoundly overvalued," -- analyst. Link here

A special section on Wuhan flu:

  • dead virus cells frequently trigger "false positives" in most common Covid test. Link here.
  • most promising Covid vaccine study put on hold, due to one adverse reaction. Previously posted.
  • Sweden defeats the virus. Previously posted.most egregious story: that hit-piece on the Sturgis Rally; no facts to back it up; statistics prove different story; previously posted;

Okay, that's it. My fifteen minutes are up.

Photo of the day: someone climbed this tree on Interstate 90 in northern Idaho and posted this flag complete with a solar light.