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Saturday, July 18, 2020

A CLR Well Trending Toward 500K Bbls Crude Oil With Recent Jump In Production -- July 18, 2020

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The CLR Sorenson wells in Alkali Creek are tracked here.

This well will likely go over 500K bbls crude oil by the end of this year. Note its recent jump in production. In addition, it's one of the few wells that was not taken off line in May, 2020, during the "melt down of 2020."

The well:
  • 22619, 781, CLR, Sorenson 2-21AH, Alkali Creek, t2/13; cum 468K 5/20; note jump in production one year ago.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031747774934865106291012585
BAKKEN4-202014320429742506364934820
BAKKEN3-202020452647642934627646231392
BAKKEN2-20202970807053508293818811180
BAKKEN1-20203175787822579410607102150
BAKKEN12-2019311027510308885613864123571090
BAKKEN11-201923557752795571667951091305
BAKKEN10-201931579357624521793526444873
BAKKEN9-201930678270186168103989199074
BAKKEN8-20193184398305799712870133411117
BAKKEN7-201931942694721020898954069073
BAKKEN6-201930935894221139693153128600
BAKKEN5-2019311163211572139851315554877250
BAKKEN4-2019299156885894391114042666511
BAKKEN3-20192270287100
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-2019292234239478056124802460
BAKKEN12-20183126302713835604142481380
BAKKEN11-2018302594260085764755295775
BAKKEN10-20183126932619907600121763412

The Long X Bridge Update -- July 18, 2020

From Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:





By the way, flashback to the Lewis and Clark bridge southwest of Williston:

Update: The Debacle Formerly Known As The Bullet Train -- July 18, 2020

Updates

Later, 8:39 p.m. CDT: this is the reason Governor Newsom is playing games with the federal government, maintaining that the state is still building a high-speed rail, even if it only goes from Bakersfield to Merced.  With the California legislature again holding up funding for the bullet train, the federal government may act again.

Original Post

This story is traced at "Bullet Train Central."

What are they thinking? Putting all of the remaining bullet train funds into the single stretch of high speed rail between Bakersfield and Merced. Really?

Re-posting with some additional "stuff."
Which reminds me: what's the status of the California debacle previously known as the bullet train? From the LA Times: California high-speed rail board delays key finance plan after lawmakers push back.
Following a stunning rebuke by the State Assembly, the board of California’s high-speed rail authority this week put off approving a crucial 2020 business plan, a sign it has agreed to reassess the project’s current blueprint.
The authority’s board had planned to routinely approve the business plan at a meeting scheduled for Thursday and submit it to the Legislature as it has done every two years over the last decade.
The plan formally laid out a $20.4 billion blueprint to build a partial operating system in the San Joaquin Valley under a massive 30-year contract that would be issued this year.
But earlier this month, the Assembly approved a resolution that called on the rail authority to delay that contract and reassess the entire strategy of putting all of the remaining bullet train funds into the single stretch of high speed rail between Bakersfield and Merced.



Do You Know The Way to San Jose, Dionne Warwick
From the San Francisco Chronicle:
Even before the coronavirus pandemic, it wasn’t clear how California would pay for its dream of running 220-mph bullet trains from San Francisco to Los Angeles.

Now, the project is as close to the precipice as it’s ever been. The California High-Speed Rail Authority faces two new threats: Its largest source of funding is evaporating and state legislators have attempted to derail the agency’s plans en masse.
The culmination of woes has cast new doubt on the viability of the rail plan and Gov. Gavin Newsom’s strategy to focus on building the system’s Central Valley segment first. [WHY?]
“The way this project has been managed is embarrassing, to say the least,” Assemblyman Jim Frazier, a North Bay Democrat who chairs the Transportation Committee, told legislators during a June 11 vote to challenge the plan.
“It is an unelected body, which has taken little input from us, obliging us to vote for dollars that will continue to dog us for the next 30 years,” said Rendon, a Democrat from Lakewood (Los Angeles County).
But the authority plans to push ahead this fall with awarding those contracts, including a 30-year maintenance deal. It will ask legislators to approve $4.2 billion in funding, the remainder of its voter-approved bonds, early next year.
A 30-year maintenance deal for an unfinished project? Only in California.

Biden Presidency -- Foreshadowing -- July 18, 2020

This is exactly what we will see with a Biden presidency. From dw.com, June 10, 2020:
As part of its stimulus package, Germany intends to expand the role of green hydrogen to help end the country's reliance on coal. The government agreed on a plan on how to spend the €9 billion earmarked for the project.

Hydrogen, the universe's most abundant element, has often been touted as a way to power vehicles and energy plants, but it is just too expensive. Most hydrogen used today is produced by reforming natural gas, which also releases a lot of carbon dioxide (CO2). Green hydrogen, on the other hand, is extracted from water by electrolysis, but it is still a very energy-intensive process.

Hydrogen's huge advantage, however, is that can be more easily stored than other forms of renewable energy and for longer periods of time, which is why it is a key part of Germany's energy transition (Energiewende) strategy, as Europe's No. 1 economy seeks to become carbon neutral by 2050. Last week, the government announced that it aimed to have 5 gigawatts (GW) of hydrogen production capacity by 2030, with another 5 GW a decade later.

The plan, which could see hydrogen eventually make up about 10% of the country's total electricity capacity, was unveiled as part of a €130 billion ($147 billion) stimulus to help reboot the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. The hydrogen commitment is part of some €40 billion earmarked for climate-related spending.
Great investing opportunities during tectonic changes. 

We've discussed this before: countries and companies seem to have huge amounts of cash to spend on alternate energy sources. My hunch: I think folks who are following this know what's going on. It's not rocket science. Snake oil salesmen writ large. Really large. And if folks recall, the 19th century snake oil salemen became Big Pharma of the 21st century.


The Bakken Is Back -- Barron's -- July 18, 2020

Re-posting.

***********************************
Barron's: The Bakken Is Back

This is behind a paywall, but if you are able to access it, it's worth it. The link: https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-oil-companies-are-drilling-again-heres-whos-ramping-up-51595014332. You might be able to find using typical Google tricks.
Oil companies are starting to increase their drilling again, after months where they shut off wells or postponed projects. Their decisions in the months ahead, along with the path of Covid-19 could determine the longer-term trajectory of oil stocks.

After a volatile spring, oil prices have been trading around $40 a barrel for the past few weeks. Analysts don’t expect them to rise above $50 a barrel until there are more signs demand is returning -- a question mark as Covid-19 surges in the U.S.

Other countries are starting to pump more oil, too. OPEC said this week that it planned to gradually increase production.
Regarding the Bakken:
In June, the number of permits to drill wells in the U.S. rose by 15% on a month-over-month basis off a “brutal” May bottom, noted Evercore ISI analyst James West in a note. In total, federal authorities approved 1,238 permits — 126 more oil permits and 40 more gas permits than the prior month.

Small and midsize oil companies have had trouble getting financing to drill, but larger explorers and producers have fared better. Exxon Mobil and Chevron both raised billions of dollars in the credit markets after Covid-19 began to spread.

The majors, which include Exxon, Chevron, and European oil companies likeRoyal Dutch Shell account for a large share of the increased drilling permits.

Of the independent explorers and producers, Devon Energy andDiamondback Energy are expanding their presence in the Permian basin—the most productive oil basin in the U.S.—applying for drilling permits for 31 and 12 wells, respectively.

There is also more activity in the Bakken formation, which is in North Dakota and Montana. The companies adding the most wells there include ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil, up 21 and 15 wells respectively.
It should be noted that XOM is also in the Bakken (XTO) and picking up a bit of activity.

Notes From All Over -- Including One Story About The Bakken -- July 18, 2020

Best thing about getting old: sleep patterns. LOL.

Nope, just kidding, best thing about getting old: the pool of attractive people to watch gets larger and larger.

Melt down. Shale oil? Nope, Bryson DeChambeau. Pencils a "10" on the 15th hole just before the cut. Goes from +1  (makes the cut) to +6 (does not make the cut) on one hole, just three holes from the end. Wow. Won't accept ruing from first official; gets second opinion on the ruling: same outcome. Quickly becoming the white Bubba on the PGA tour.

Obamacare: a federal appeals court supports Trump on ruling. Amazing. Good news for those who need less expensive health insurance.

Finally got the memo. Ten years late. Daimler to stop building sedans in the US after 2Q20 loss. Will now, finally, focus on high-margin SUVs. Why did it take so long? Don't they read the blog about cheap oil? Hopefully the company is not late to the EV bandwagon.

New York not broke: anyone following the news knows that the governor of New York is concerned about the states finances, suggesting the state may be broke. If so, not that broke. New York will invest almost a billion dollars to expand EV infrastructure.

Which reminds me: what's the status of the California debacle previously known as the bullet train? From the LA Times: California high-speed rail board delays key finance plan after lawmakers push back.
Following a stunning rebuke by the State Assembly, the board of California’s high-speed rail authority this week put off approving a crucial 2020 business plan, a sign it has agreed to reassess the project’s current blueprint.
The authority’s board had planned to routinely approve the business plan at a meeting scheduled for Thursday and submit it to the Legislature as it has done every two years over the last decade.
The plan formally laid out a $20.4 billion blueprint to build a partial operating system in the San Joaquin Valley under a massive 30-year contract that would be issued this year.

But earlier this month, the Assembly approved a resolution that called on the rail authority to delay that contract and reassess the entire strategy of putting all of the remaining bullet train funds into the single stretch of high speed rail between Bakersfield and Merced.

More insanity: electric truck startup Nikola is worth more than Chrysler, according to one analyst.

Not insane? Warren Buffett may have found a stock he actually likes. His own. 

***********************************
Barron's: The Bakken

This is behind a paywall, but if you are able to access it, it's worth it. The link: https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-oil-companies-are-drilling-again-heres-whos-ramping-up-51595014332. You might be able to find using typical Google tricks.
Oil companies are starting to increase their drilling again, after months where they shut off wells or postponed projects. Their decisions in the months ahead, along with the path of Covid-19 could determine the longer-term trajectory of oil stocks.

After a volatile spring, oil prices have been trading around $40 a barrel for the past few weeks. Analysts don’t expect them to rise above $50 a barrel until there are more signs demand is returning -- a question mark as Covid-19 surges in the U.S.

Other countries are starting to pump more oil, too. OPEC said this week that it planned to gradually increase production.
Regarding the Bakken:
In June, the number of permits to drill wells in the U.S. rose by 15% on a month-over-month basis off a “brutal” May bottom, noted Evercore ISI analyst James West in a note. In total, federal authorities approved 1,238 permits — 126 more oil permits and 40 more gas permits than the prior month.

Small and midsize oil companies have had trouble getting financing to drill, but larger explorers and producers have fared better. Exxon Mobil andChevron both raised billions of dollars in the credit markets after Covid-19 began to spread.

The majors, which include Exxon, Chevron, and European oil companies likeRoyal Dutch Shell account for a large share of the increased drilling permits.

Of the independent explorers and producers, Devon Energy andDiamondback Energy are expanding their presence in the Permian basin—the most productive oil basin in the U.S.—applying for drilling permits for 31 and 12 wells, respectively.

There is also more activity in the Bakken formation, which is in North Dakota and Montana. The companies adding the most wells there include ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil, up 21 and 15 wells respectively.

For The Birds -- July 18, 2020

Chicks: yesterday Sophia and I stopped by the local post office to mail a package, pick up some boxes, buy some stamps. On the way in, out comes a mom with her young daughter carrying a cardboard box with air holes in it and a lot of chirping. Baby chickens. Wow. I remember getting baby chicks when I was growing up in Williston, but we bought them at the local grocery store or some such thing. I've forgotten. And then this from the NY Post:
When receptionist Heidi Heilig was told she could work remotely at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, she figured the extra time at home would allow her to get a pet for her 6-year-old and 2-year-old sons.
Trouble is, her kids are allergic to cats and dogs. The solution? Raising three chickens in her small, Prospect Heights, Brooklyn backyard.
“The children were off school, bored, and chickens have been a great diversion from what was happening in the world,” says the 40-year-old, also a published author, who bought newly hatched chicks, named Salt, Pepper and Oreo, in April.
Although the birds are still too young to lay, Heilig tells The Post she’s looking forward to mornings with fresh eggs for breakfast — a clear advantage over dog or cat ownership.
Heilig is one of a growing number of first-time poultry owners who have taken up the hobby as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, taking the uptick in pandemic pet ownership to new heights. Her supplier, My Pet Chicken, reports a boom in sales since March as people have begun seeking an uplifting distraction from the doom and gloom.
How did this ever become a thing? Let's see. Any more stories? From NPR, April 3, 2020: "we are swamped."





Later: a reader from Minnesota -- https://www.welphatchery.com/. Curious: can you buy live chicks through Amazon? Maybe not live chicks (I don't know) but certainly "hatching eggs."

Swainson's hawks: this is really, really cool. For the past week or so, while swimming in the apartment pool complex, I've been noting several unidentified birds of prey circling overhead. I go out swimming four times/day: 10:00 -- noon; 2:00 -- 3:00; 4:30 -- 6:30; and 7:00 -- 8:00 p.m. almost every day during the past two weeks.

I first noted them about a week ago, two unidentified birds of prey to the northwest. A couple days ago, it was wonderful: there were a total of six of these birds, still in the general area to the northwest of me. Yesterday, there were three to the southeast. I assume they were the same ones.

They always show up about 4:45 p.m. or so and put on quite a show for about an hour, generally flying in large arcs, gliding on the wind; I seldom see much flapping of wings, and then occasional dives, but not dives that are particularly spectacular.

I had not seen these types of birds before but I was determined to identify them. I have a huge library of books on birds, and I finally identified them. One of my books is The Birdsongs Bible. I've had it for several years; Sophia and I love going through it.


The birds: the Swainson's hawk (Boteo swainsoni) and here in the DFW area it turns out that others have also seen them. From dfwurbanwildlife, back in 2014:
The Swainson’s Hawk (Buteo swainsoni) is another large Buteo frequently seen around the DFW Area in the summer time.
Swainson’s Hawks spend their winters in South America, and only reach portions of the United States after a long springtime migration.
The Swainson’s Hawk is usually seen at altitude, soaring high over our urban development.
In the air they are recognizable by their unique colors and configuration.
Swainson’s Hawks have darkly colored heads and light undersides. Their flight feathers create a contrasting darkly colored trailing edge on their wings. In flight, the wings of these Buteos often appears narrower and more pointed that those of other similar species.
The DFW metroplex is just at the edge of the Swainson’s Hawk breeding range, and presumably they do nest here—though I have yet to come across one of their nests.
Swainson’s Hawks are much less tolerant of human activity than some of our other hawks, and therefore may nest in more rural and isolated areas.
Unusual for a hawk of this size, the diet of Swainson’s Hawk can largely consist of insects.
Exactly what I've been seeing for the past couple of weeks:

 

The Penguin.
Of all the Lego sets that I have come across in the last fifty years, this may be the one I like best. I did not know it existed. I happened to come across it last week at the local "Bricks and Minifigs" store here in Grapevine, TX, just a five-minute bike ride from where we live.
I did not think twice about buying this one as soon as I saw it. It's a retired product, but I see they are still available at Walmart and Amazon for just under $70. I don't remember what I paid for it but I believe it was about $32 and with a $6.00 coupon I probably paid $28 or so, after taxes. This is, simply, just such an incredible kit. I couldn't believe how excited Sophia was when she saw it. She immediately recognized it as Batman and knew all about it. Amazing.


Week 29: July 12, 2020 -- July 18, 2020

Biggest story not being reported:
  • The erasure of the Native American. Native American headdresses coming down faster than Confederate statues. The only place Native Americans are winning: stopping critical pipelines.
Top story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
What were they thinking?
Most under-reported story:
Smallest story with the biggest headline:

Biggest non-surprise:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top ND non-energy story:

Top ND energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • "A five-alarm fire" -- ND crude output falls 30% in May, 2020
  • DC court grants stay of DAPL shutdown order
  • Mercer County affirms wind moratorium
Operators:
Operations:
500K wells:
Fracking: Hi-Crush crushed; files for bankruptcy.

Bakken 101:
Commentary: