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Tuesday, June 23, 2020

An Equinor Jack Cvancara Just Topped 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- June 23, 2020

The well:
  • 18628, 4,357, Equinor, Jack Cvancara 19-18 1H, Alger, t5/10; cum 501K 4/20;
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Tesla -- Austin -- June 23, 2020

Updates

June 25, 2020: looks like the move is on to AOC the Tesla move to Texas. Link here. My hunch: if Austin doesn't want them, Plano, Dallas, Grapevine, Roanoke, will welcome Tesla with open arms. Huge Tesla dealer in Southlake. Lots of support here for Tesla. And Lamborghini for that matter, also.

Original Post 

From KXAN:
 Tesla is looking to build a 4 million to 5 million square-foot manufacturing plant in the Austin area, and it would like to build on land within the Del Valle Independent School District with more than $68 million in tax incentives, an application with the Texas Comptroller’s office says.

Tesla wants to put an electric vehicle manufacturing facility — a Gigafactory — at the intersection of State Highway 130 and Harold Green Road on about 2,100 acres.
The property is currently home to a concrete batch plant owned and operated by Martin Marietta.

The proposed incentive agreement between the car maker and Del Valle ISD lets Tesla save money on its property tax bill paid to the school district by capping the property value for 10 years.

The plant would create an estimated 5,000 jobs, according to Tesla’s Section 313 tax limitation application with the school district. According to the application, wages for 25 positions would be around $74,000 per year.

He said many manufacturers tend to look in areas outside dense cities because land is more affordable in those areas, but they still need easy access to highways.

If approved by the school board, construction on the facility could start in the third quarter of this year.
Tesla said it has to come to an agreement or else it will build somewhere else. Tesla paid Del Valle ISD $150,000 on May 21 to file the application.
Personally, I'm getting tired of that meme, "but they still need easy access to highways."

Oh, give me a break. Building highways is the least of their problems in undeveloped areas. All one needs to do is look at the number of miles of new road built in the Bakken over the years.

But there you have it.

Hopefully no one on Del Valle ISD's governing board AOC's the project.

Del Val's ISD annual budget: around $70 million.

Del Val ISD: 12,000 students; 16 campuses.

$70 million / 12,000 = $6,000 / student. From us census/gov:
The amount spent per pupil for public elementary and secondary education (prekindergarten through 12th grade) for all 50 states and the District of Columbia increased by 3.7% to $12,201 per pupil during the 2017 fiscal year, compared to $11,763 per pupil in 2016.
Texas average, per pupil: $9,375.
North Dakota, per pupil: $13,760.
New York, per pupil: $23,091
Beginning in the 2020 - 2021 school year, the Del Val ISD will have its own police department. 
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Roanoke, TX -- June 23, 2020

For the archives.

I spent a bit of time out in Roanoke, TX, tonight. I was blown away. They say Roanoke will be the DFW metroplex population center in 2050. In other words, draw a circle around what the DFW metroplex is expected to encompass in 2050 and the center of that circle will be Roanoke.

The Texas Motor Speedway and Buc-ee's is at the east/west-north/south intersection of Roanoke.

From H. David Ballinger, realtor:
The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Area (aka DFW metroplex, Dallas metroplex, DFW area, north Texas) encompasses thirteen north Texas counties, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Hood, Hunt, Johnson, Kaufman, Parker, Rockwall, Somervell, Tarrant (Ft Worth) and Wise.
For 2016, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the DFW metroplex population to be 7,233,323, which is more than all but three other U.S. metro areas and 38 U.S. states.
The Dallas County population was nearly 2.6 million and the population of Tarrant County (Ft Worth) was just over 2 million. The number of residents living in each of the other DFW metroplex counties was less than 1 million.
The DFW metroplex is quite large, covering 9,286 square miles. Nearly 9,000 square miles of the DFW area is land, which is larger than the land areas of six U.S. states, Massachusetts, Hawaii, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island, and about the same as the land area of the state of New Hampshire.
While the largest cities in the DFW area are fairly densely populated with greater than 3,500 residents per square mile, the population density for the area overall is less than 800 residents per square mile. For comparison, Manhattan, NYC, has a population density of over 70,000 people per square mile.
From the Roanoke chamber of commerce:
“Roanoke is located in the center of the fastest growing area of the state and is now the central point to the DFW Metroplex, as projected over ten years ago.
Year after year, we have experienced prosperity, strong economic growth, a low crime rate, a highly rated school district, and a wide range of affordable housing, while retaining our charming, small town feel, and friendly atmosphere. Roanoke continues to be a great place to live, dine, shop and play, proven by the unprecented, accelerated growth we’ve experienced in the quality retail, industrial and residential development. ​
Roanoke has many amenities that were built for our residents but also for our neighboring cities to enjoy. We have a state-of-the-art, 15,000-square-foot Library that is occupied daily with hundreds of residents and guests. Our Recreation Center provides many programs for small children up to our seniors. Roanoke is second to none as a destination. We continue to attract "Unique" restaurants. The City of Roanoke is still one of the lowest combined property tax rates in the state, with more to offer than most small communities in our area.
Schwab is building a huge complex in Roanoke. TD Ameritrade has a huge complex "across the street" from Schwab. 
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Time For The Spoon Lady -- June 23, 2020

This is a post that I hope no one reads. LOL. This post has been in draft for over a year. Debated whether to post it or not. With all that's going on right now, it seemed time.

I have probably watched and re-watched more of the "spoon lady" videos than anyone can possibly imagine.

This is probably the video that started it all for me. A reader sent the link to me more than a year ago. As noted, I've probably watched more "spoon lady" videos than anyone can possible imagine.

Last night, I spent several hours watching vidoes that emanated from that video. The evening started with Charlie Rich's There Won't Be Anymore, and somehow from there I ended back with the spoon lady. I started about 9:30 p.m. and was still watching at 12:30 a.m.

Interestingly enough, tonight, "groundhog night." I started watching about 9:00 p.m. The videos are playing in the background and I'm typing away.


If after watching that, if you are still curious, then check out a few more "spoon lady" videos -- there are dozens of them -- but if you come across this one : "#Tongal: Abby the Spoon Lady - Created in Ep 02" do not watch it until you feel you "truly know" the spoon lady.

Once you feel you "know" the spoon lady, then go to that video.

She is brilliant. There's much more there than meets the eye, and a lot meets the eye. LOL.

The "#Tongal: Abby the Spoon Lady -- Created in Ep 02" provides enough information to "frame" a book but one has to listen closely to catch clues to her backstory.

I know just enough to know I know I do not want to know any more about her past. I have a backstory in my mind. That's all I need.

As usual, the comments at many of the videos are must-read material.

Word for the day: busker or busking.
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Portland, OR, Supports Some Exceptions To Wearing Mandatory Masks -- June 23, 2020

Our younger daughter lives in Multnomah County, Oregon.

At first I thought this was from the Babylon Bee. 


From Willamette (Oregon) Week:
Efforts by Portland-area elected officials to be racially sensitive blocked a mask requirement across Multnomah County earlier this month.

"For Black men, according to The New York Times," Multnomah County Commissioner Lori Stegmann said in early June, "the fear is that masks will expose them to harassment from the police."

This concern made Portland an anomaly. Nationally, pushback on masks has been more typically associated with President Donald Trump and his allies in the Republican Party. In Montgomery, AL, for example, Black leaders and doctors pushed for a mask requirement that was voted down by a white majority of the city council.
Screenshot:

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Rigs Don't Matter -- Two Equinor Broderson Wells With Jump In Production; One Quite Significant -- June 23, 2020

The two wells below plus a third one all showed a significant jump in production after an Equinor Sax well was reported to have been fracked. 

The wells:
  • 24372, 2,995, Equinor, Broderson 30-31 2H, Banks, t6/14; cum 299K 4/20;
  • 20531, 1,430, Equinor, Broderson 30-31 1TFH, Banks, 12/11; cum 232K 4/20;
Recent production:
  • 20531:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030452946001569418164180440
BAKKEN3-202031570255912108423078229540
BAKKEN2-202029553155292298620467203510
BAKKEN1-202024208917551352660505171783
BAKKEN12-201900400000
BAKKEN11-201924299701833145014420
BAKKEN10-201931964197633956827475245782773
BAKKEN9-201930820580664224921091182462725
BAKKEN8-20198814625258972542245951
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20198796775777439843980
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-201815249101901780
BAKKEN11-201830125211202313475946381
  • 24372:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203010739107901897846676465560
BAKKEN3-20203112240120322275348788486640
BAKKEN2-20202912369125602394446421463050
BAKKEN1-20202257235943191981904318092863
BAKKEN12-2019113648374311032298929410
BAKKEN11-20193013242127513702445680455600
BAKKEN10-20193117512171695444448440434174899
BAKKEN9-201921789476993911719020164722460
BAKKEN8-20198690658236881274121725
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-201969651098153250225020
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20181542431971850
BAKKEN11-201830213218891447753674142
BAKKEN10-201830196721451227659064606
BAKKEN9-20182617821870896656264531
BAKKEN8-2018311930148812025738562755
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Equinor Sax Well With Jump In Production -- June 23, 2020

The well:
  • 21792, 2,982, Equinor, Sax 25-36 1H, Banks, t7/12; cum 341K 4/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030694769641514622305896013225
BAKKEN3-2020317781827917423239601074713089
BAKKEN2-202029761573562044021033120208897
BAKKEN1-20203167286470250591744417128192
BAKKEN12-20191836283549195468574842379
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-201981004958758226882942394
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-2019211597180618591778890812
BAKKEN6-201930129112082932336932490
BAKKEN5-2019261376135427413609345356
BAKKEN4-20192514831935174940793776183

 See full production here.
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Whiting With Two New Permits -- June 23, 2020

At least "they" didn't call it a surprise:
  • consensus: an inventory build of 299,000 bbls
  • reported by API: 1.749 million bbls
  • EIA will report tomorrow, Wednesday, July 24, 2020
**************************************
Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$39.976/23/202006/23/201906/23/201806/23/201706/23/2016
Active Rigs1164655830

Two new permits, #37662 - #37663, inclusive --
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Whiting has permits for two Lacey wells in SWNW 1-152-92, Sanish oil field, both2126' FNL and about 400' FWL
Enerplus resurveyed:
  • 36275, Salmon, SWNE 3-148-94, just a few feet different in new location;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31908, TA/A, Equinor, Sax 25-36 XE 1H, Banks,  t--; cum 137K 4/20;
  • 36664, SI/A, Petroshale, Jorgenson Federal 2MBH, Bear Den,  t--; cum 85K 4/20;
  • 36665, SI/A, Petroshale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, t--; cum 65K 4/20;
After #31908 was reported, the following three wells showed a significant jump in production:
  • 24372, 2,995, Equinor, Broderson 30-31 2H, Banks, t6/14; cum 299K 4/20; link here;
  • 20531, 1,430, Equinor, Broderson 30-31 1TFH, Banks, 12/11; cum 232K 4/20; link here;
  • 21792, 2,982, Equinor, Sax 25-36 1H, Banks, t7/12; cum 341K 4/20; link here;
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NOG Announces A Reverse Stock Split -- Will Reduce Number Of Authorized Shares -- June 23, 2020

Memo to self: insert snarky comment here.

Link here.

A ratio yet-to-be determined: somewhere between 1-for-6 and 1-for-10.

According to the company:
The reverse stock split will reduce the number of Northern shares of common stock outstanding and is expected to increase the per share trading price of Northern’s common stock, which may improve marketability and facilitate its trading. 
And perhaps prevent de-listing.

NOG today:
  • closed at 95 cents;
  • down about 2 cents;
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
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Notes From All Over -- The "NASDAQ Hit A New Record" Edition -- June 23, 2020

NASDAQ:


Of interest, for the archives:
  • AAPL: $368; up over $9.21, up 2.6%
  • NFLX: $469; up 75 cents, up 0.15%
  • IMUX: $14.46; up 25 cents; up 1.75%
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

*******************************************
US Car Ownership

Earlier I wrote:
Myth: the death of car ownership. See this link. There are so many story lines in this article, I will have to come back to this later.
This story is simply fascinating.

The writer raises several so many issues it's hard "to review."

First issue: the writer says that the "kid on the block," Facedrive, will fix the "ride-sharing model," arguing that the Lyft and Uber models are broken. [The writer does not define "broken."] How is Facedrive different? This is how, according to the writer:
  • Facedrive is the first to offer EVs and hybrids;
  • Facedrive is the first to plant trees to offset its carbon footprint
  • Facedrive has St Greta on its board of directors (okay, that's a joke).
But seriously, does anyone hail a taxi service based on whether the company plants trees to offset its carbon footprint?

Okay, we need to move one.

Second issue: this is a good one, and I had not really thought about it until the writer raised it as an issue. Think about it. When I want to go somewhere, I get in my car, go there, and come back home. It's called a round trip. If I did not own a car, I would arrange for a "taxi" which would drive from somewhere, drive to where I am, drive me to where I want to be, and then drive on to another destination. My round trip now, all of a sudden, turns into a round trip plus another round trip for someone else, the "taxi" driver. The rider actually alludes to this but doesn't say why ride-hail services are not environmentally sound:
Ride-sharing has been anything BUT sustainable. It’s having a hugely negative impact on the environment, with estimates that the average ride-hail results in nearly 70% more pollution than whatever transportation it displaced. 
The question is why the "70%" more pollution?  There are many reasons, but one of the reasons is the extra driving the "taxi" does to provide transportation for my round trip.

Third issue: a derivative of the second issue. Again, "the average ride-hail results in nearly 70% more pollution than whatever transportation it displaced." The writer is alluding to public transportation. And Facedrive will displace/replace a lot of public transportation, even if they do plant more trees. 

Fourth issue: BlackRock has now replaced Goldman Sachs as the most important banking company in the world. The writer cites this source.
  
Fifth issue: I did learn a new type of investing -- ESG investing. I guess I've seen that before but never paid any attention to it. Environmental, social, and governance investing. This is not new. It's been around forever. If you can't come up with examples, think cigarettes.

Wow, this article goes on forever and ever and ever. It never quits. Where was it first printed? Aha -- here it is -- oilprice. That explains everything.

I was reading the article to read what the headline suggested: "The death of car ownership: the trilion dollar trend upending the auto industry."

Do me a favor. Go to the linked article. Here's the link again: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-car-ownership-trillion-dollar-230000172.html. Do me a favor. Once you have the downloaded story in front of you, do a word search for that page. Search the word "ownership." Tell me how many times you found that word. "Ownership" shows up twice. Once in the headline and once in the disclaimer. Unless I missed it.

There is nothing in the article about "automobile ownership" in the article -- it's all about pumping a startup, Facedrive.

Clickbait.

Facedrive shares are traded OTC and TSXV.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

**************************************
Exhibit A

Less than six hours after writing the above note, I came across this story:

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Notes From All Over -- The "I'm Not Afraid Of My Syrup Any More" Edition -- Part 1 -- June 23, 2020

Topical. Why I love to blog. No sooner do I post a note about Aunt Jemima syrup and "reader #1" sends me this: 


Bakken update: neither well coming off confidential list today were reported as completed; two more DUCs. Link here.

WTI: $41.19.

Two headlines over at oilprice today:
  • India scrambles to keep up with soaring fuel demand;
  • can China's insatiable appetite for gas save the LNG industry?
OPEC basket, link here: down a bit to $38.96. Saudi can't survive on oil below $80. Period. Dot. Saudi is scrambling to find cash wherever it can.
  • shaking down sheiks; 
  • moving oil revenue into equity markets;
  • reviving tourist industry with $4 billion investment; tourist industry killed by Covid;
  • a trillion-dollar IPO that is looking more problematic every day; especially that guaranteed $75-billion annual dividend
  • but all of that is nibbling on the margins; they need oil at $53 to just "clear the current accounts," whatever that means. Needs $80-oil to meet austere budget. 
US winners, losers:
  • billion-dollar investment firm announced plans to leave downtown Seattle; will move to Phoenix; Phoenix, I think, is one of the most under-reported, understood financial centers in the US
  • financial centers in the US: NYC, Boston, San Diego, Phoenix
  • tech centers: Silicon Valley (CA); Austin (TX); not sure about Seattle any more; 
  • Chicago: a legacy city; is it a growing city? I don't know;
Myth: the death of car ownership. See this link. There are so many story lines in this article, I will have to come back to this later.

Myth: herd immunity. I get the feeling that folks don't understand "where we are" with regard to herd immunity. The fastest way to get to herd immunity is the Stockholm strategy, and even Sweden is nowhere close to herd immunity:



Of the 215 countries, localities, regions, whatever, that worldodometers track, Sweden ranked #11 yesterday in number of new Corona-related deaths. So, how's that herd immunity working out for Sweden. Again, Sweden's strategy is the best way to get to herd immunity:
  • deaths/per capita: 
    • Sweden ranks #7 as of yesterday; 507 deaths/million population
    • US: #9 at 370
  • tests per capita (per million):
    • Sweden: 38,192
    • US: 87,664
  • total cases per capita (per million):
    • Sweden: 6,004 (0.6% of the population)
    • US: 7,217 (0.7% of the population)
  • Total tests:
    • Sweden: 385,659
    • USA: 29 million
  • total cases of Covid / number of Covid tests administered (percentage)
    • Sweden: 16%
    • US: 8%
  • Comments:
    • I've not seen anyone yet, including Dr Fauci, tell us the percent of folks that need to test positive before we have "herd immunity," but in general, it's agreed, we need at least 80% of a population to test positive before we can start talking about herd immunity. I'll explain it later. Coming up against a hard commercial break.
    • If it's agreed that we need at least 80% of a population to test positive before we can start talking about herd immunity, then we've got a long way to go
    • only 0.07% of the Swedish and/or American population has tested positive (at most)
    • less than 10% of the US population has been tested; in fact, it's much worse than that -- I'll explain that later, also;
    • bottom line: herd immunity? Nowhere close. 
    • UNLESS.
Myth: the myth of surging Covid-19 cases. Link here. But again, we're not being given the hospitalization rate; the death rate. To read herd immunity we need to see this surge in the number of cases. My concern: folks don't understand the concept of herd immunity.

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Notes From All Over -- Morning Edition -- Rum-Soaked Cake Not Just For Dessert Any More -- Thank You, #BLM -- June 23, 2020

Busy, busy day. I have a gazillion things in draft, but I don't have time to get anything posted. I will be off the net for about an hour. Have a great day.

But first things first: one of my many Father's Day gifts -- I checked the ingredients. Identical to what one might find in homemade waffles.


The only difference: Aunt Jemima's syrup vs Kentucky Bourbon. Now that I'm "woke" and understand the racist connotation of the former, I am changing my breakfast routine. LOL. What a great country. Thank you #BLM. I'm changing my breakfast routine. No more waffles -- no more Aunt Jemima's syrup. It's butter cake for me from now on. LOL. Would the Waffle House need to get a liquor permit to sell rum-soaked waffles?

By the way, we've come full circle. The first "love of my life," generally had cake for breakfast. She noticed the same thing about the ingredients. By the way, we've talked about this before: can one have more than one "love of one's life"? My wife would say "no." LOL.


Fast and furious. We will get back to these stories later. Lots of Uber-granddaughter driving today.
  • the myth of herd immunity;
  • the myth of surging Covid cases;
  • the market:
  • Tesla: keeping Austin weird;
  • the death of car ownership: another myth; 
  • Amazon; Alexa 
  • winners and losers:
    • winner: Phoenix
    • loser: Seattle
YouTube: I surfed YouTube from 9:30 p.m. last night to well after midnight. A most wonderful evening. Maybe more on that later.

*********************************
Buffett's Hypothetical Spreadsheet

For background, see this post from yesterday. 

Tell me again how Buffett's "panic selling" resulted in a $3-billion loss. See previous notes. Will provide links later, but regular readers know what I'm talking about.
Airline
Shr Price: 3/31/2020
Dollars: 3/31/2020
Shares
Shr Price: June 23, 2020
Total: June 19, 2020

DAL
28.53
675,000,000
23,659,306
29.06
687,539,432

UAL
31.55
675,000,000
21,394,612
35.24
753,946,117

AAL
12.19
675,000,000
55,373,257
13.81
764,704,676

SWA (LUV)
35.61
675,000,000
18,955,350
34.04
645,240,101



2,700,000,000


2,851,430,327








AAPL
254.29
2,700,000,000
10,617,799
365.76
3,883,566,007













1,032,135,681




















2,851,430,327






36.20%







March 24, 2020

224

10,617,799

2,378,386,881
June 23, 2020

365.76

10,617,799

3,883,566,007






1,505,179,126

From March 24, 2020, to June 23, 2020: a 44% gain on AAPL.
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