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Saturday, June 20, 2020

The Kind Of Numbers Saudi Does Not Like To See -- June 20, 2020

These wells have still not reported an IP, but they are reporting post-frack production.

The wells:
  • 36658, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-15B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36657, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-14T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36656, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-13B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36655, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-12T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36654, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-10B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36653, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-9T, Four Bears, t--; cum --; 
*******************************
Production Profiles
  • 36653, extrapolates to 51,700 over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202026448074468264771514863372717336
BAKKEN3-20200000000
  • 36657, extrapolates to 45,072 over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20201725541254386044230185244675564
BAKKEN3-20200000000
  • 36656, extrapolates to 54,351 over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20201018117179931430219166164152662
BAKKEN3-20200000000
  • 36655, extrapolates to 44,708 over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20201928315282324851329357216787482
BAKKEN3-20200000000
  • 36654, extrapolates to 47,204 over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202023361903609649823415272982911391
BAKKEN3-20200000000

Petroshale Reporting Some Nice Wells -- June 20, 2020

Petroshale reporting some nice recently fracked wells. See this post:

See these wells:
  • 21985; halo effect; t6/12; cum 526K 4/20;
  • 17778; huge halo effect; cum 272K 4/20;
See these wells, also, but not yet posted:
  • 18436; off line for past several months; now back on line; no halo effect; t3/10; cum 480K 4/20;
  • 36316, 35, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff, t9/19; cum 134K 4/20;
  • 36317, 584, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH, Croff, t10/19; cum 95K 4/20;
  • 36318, 392, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, Croff, t10/19; cum 441K 4/20; just came back on line, 3/20;
  • 22377; went off line shortly before 10/19; has just come back on line; three days in 2/20; t7/12; cum 468K 4/20; came back on line 3/20;
  • 22520; went off line shortly before 10/19; back on line for two months; no evidence of halo effect; t12/12; cum 434K 4/20; came back on line 1/20;
Production profile for #36316:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2020301772717846496629623275532070
BAKKEN3-2020311963619557646632829305782251
BAKKEN2-202029173241725466772590025640260
BAKKEN1-2020312464924811864843571997733594
BAKKEN12-20193129752298141062058513058513
BAKKEN11-2019232218421828796946776046776
BAKKEN10-20193239522830000

Advantaged Oil -- MRO, Reunion Bay -- June 20, 2020

The well:
  • 18243, 646, MRO, Gladys USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t1/10; cum 403K 4/20; 
Recent production: 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030489549483399303427540
BAKKEN3-20203184028382802256874987215
BAKKEN2-202019703369750419141710
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000220
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-201941804063826720638
BAKKEN5-2019312343242151030212406292
BAKKEN4-201930219621514822434206559
BAKKEN3-2019311762177344824374351717
BAKKEN2-20192815761713435217901916

Advantaged Oil -- MRO, Reunion Bay -- June 20, 2020

These wells were added to the list of "wells to follow up on May 8, 2020. We will come back to them later, but look at production profile for #19834:
May 8, 2020: #20122; MRO, Reunion Bay; lots of fracking in the area;
  • 20122, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;
  • 19833, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;
  • 19834, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;
  • 19834, 1,291, MRO, Jacob Madison 11-27H, Reunion Bay, t8/11; cum 367K 4/20; recent production: '
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203074927335380450031744232
BAKKEN3-20202753455346460249743764148
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019001610000
BAKKEN10-2019312115205645420091449256
BAKKEN9-2019301970191241019551439227
BAKKEN8-201931221622884432236189429
BAKKEN7-20193122332206459233020160

Global Electricity Consumption With Great Reader Comment -- June 20, 2020

Updates

Later, 4:39 p.m. CDT: with regard to growing global electricity demand what will power that supply?
A reader, providing an incredibly good reply, suggests there is a confluence of several factors that are very rapidly impacting global energy paradigms, economics, industrial activities, and geopolitics at the very highest levels.
Starting with the relatively recent introduction of CCGPs (Combined Cycle Gas Plants) ... These ultra efficient units consume little to no fuel during the 10/12 'slow' hours of the day, only to then ramp up within a few minutes to provide needed (and high revenue producing) power during the late morning and early evening 'rush hours'. These plants have VERY low operational costs. A just opened 1,000 Mw plant outside Pittsburgh employs only 23 full time workers.

The fuel for these plants that are being deployed on a global scale ranging from Brazil (northern and southern), Jamaica, Bangladesh, Croatia, Pakistan (world's busiest FSRU) is natgas that has been liquefied (LNG), transported on ships that burn the Boil Off Gas for fuel (practically free fuel), and then delivered/stored/vaporized in floating structures called Floating Storage and Regassifying Units (FSRUs).

Both Thailand and the Philippines are going to emplace FSRUs as their domestic, conventional supplies deplete.

The massive projects just announced between Exxon and Vietnam will join the already announced construction of huge power plants by which Vietnam expects to capture much of the future manufacturing fleeing China.

As the cost of Asian LNG is currently in the $3/$4 mmbtu range (WAY cheaper than Siberian piped gas), cheap, abundant fuel supplies are anticipated for decades to come to enable these - and many other - ambitious projects to continue to flourish.
Original Post

This report is an incredibly interesting report. One needs to spend some time on it.

Re-posting:
Global electricity demand growing faster than population: link here. Previously posted, but not sure if I included that link. Also, great graphics at this link.
Global consumption:


Some comments:

  • it appears GDP per capita increased by a similar amount, on a percentage basis, for most of these countries; about 20% over eight years, 2000 - 2017, inclusive;
  • what is most remarkable is the fact that per capita GDP for the US is so much greater than Germany and Japan and the US kept up the pace since 2000;
  • also most interesting is that per capita electricity demand decreased ever so slightly over the eight years for the US, Germany but apparently NOT for Japan
  • for all the bad press Russia gets, it appears to be doing quite well, based on percentage change;
  • for all the "great" press China gets, it is amazing how far it lags, both in per capita GDP and per capital electricity demand; India? even worse;
  • it is interesting to see where Mexico falls; much worse than both China, Russia
  • this only goes through 2017; the number absolute numbers will change remarkably for the years 2020 - 2022; but the relative changes will not be that great, they may not change at all; it's quite possible, that the US will out-pace all the rest
  • Russia: too dependent on oil compared to the US;
  • Germany, Japan could be effected by black swan events in 2020 much more so than the US;

For US investors: this appears to be an open-book test.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Another link here.


And, still, yet another link:


Notes From All Over -- Early Afternoon -- Saturday Edition -- June 20, 2020

Global electricity demand growing faster than population: link here. Previously posted, but not sure if I included that link. Also, great graphics at this link.


Tesla: files to postpone annual meeting. Perhaps more to follow.

Occidental, EOG: upgraded at SunTrust on free cash flow.

Movies: AMC reverses course; will require masks on theater-goers.

Apple: may announce Intel divorce as soon as Monday, June 22, 2020.

Exxon: restores Guyana oil production.

Rigs don't matter: this is such a great article.
  • Natural gas production didn't drop as much as we had thought at the beginning of the oil production shut-in.
  • Our NG bull thesis was predicated on the idea that once US shale oil producers shut-in production, the proportional amount of associated gas production will be lost. Since US oil production fell from ~12.5 mb/d down to ~10 mb/d, this drop of 20% should've translated to ~6 Bcf/d of production loss in associated gas production. Instead, we've only seen a drop of ~3 Bcf/d.
  • Isn't that interesting? LOL. Too bad HFIR didn't go into greater depth on why natural gas production did not drop. Something wrong with their model? Will they adjust their model? 
  • For bulls, it looks like all HFIR can count on is hotter weather, increased a/c demand. We'll see.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wuhan flu: may have been in Italy as early as December, 2019. If true, the global strategy to flatten the curve may have been the worst possible strategy chosen in early 2020.  If so, the CDC / WHO let policy makers down. It appears that in the big scheme of things, the "lockdown" did little to change the virulence of the virus or its spread, and has merely drawn out the pandemic. We have not even entered the "second wave" which many predicted by now.

And right on cue, I found this after posting the above note:


One last comment: all of this suggests no one really understands viruses. Or at least, how to make rational public policy.

Week 25: June 14, 2020 -- June 20, 2020

Top story of the week:
The week's best graphic:
Most under-reported story:
Smallest story with biggest headline:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top ND stories:
  • This month's Legacy Fund deposit lowest in history;  
  • Drought becoming a problem in North Dakota;
  • Legacy Fund rebounds after losing value in March and April;
  • Passenger traffic increasing at eight commercial airports in North Dakota;
  • Sturgis City Council sanctions motorcycle rally;
  • JP Morgan predicts $100-oil based on cyclical nature of the industry;
  • Hess Corp ranked top energy company in "Best Corporate Citizen";
  • US fracking slowdown creates DUC well backlog -- Rystad Energy;
  • Global electricity consumption continues to rise faster than population;
  • IEA sees largest drop in oil demand in history but predicts biggest ever jump in 2021;
Operators:
Operations:
Advantaged oil:
500K oil:
Natural gas:
Commentary: