The Kind Of Numbers Saudi Does Not Like To See -- June 20, 2020

These wells have still not reported an IP, but they are reporting post-frack production.

The wells:

• 36658, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-15B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
• 36657, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-14T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
• 36656, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-13B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
• 36655, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-12T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
• 36654, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-10B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
• 36653, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-9T, Four Bears, t--; cum --; 

*******************************

Production Profiles

• 36653, extrapolates to 51,700 over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	26	44807	44682	64771	51486	33727	17336
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36657, extrapolates to 45,072 over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	17	25541	25438	60442	30185	24467	5564
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36656, extrapolates to 54,351 over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	10	18117	17993	14302	19166	16415	2662
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36655, extrapolates to 44,708 over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	19	28315	28232	48513	29357	21678	7482
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 36654, extrapolates to 47,204 over 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	23	36190	36096	49823	41527	29829	11391
BAKKEN	3-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Petroshale Reporting Some Nice Wells -- June 20, 2020

Petroshale reporting some nice recently fracked wells. See this post:

See these wells:

• 21985; halo effect; t6/12; cum 526K 4/20;
• 17778; huge halo effect; cum 272K 4/20;

See these wells, also, but not yet posted:

• 18436; off line for past several months; now back on line; no halo effect; t3/10; cum 480K 4/20;
• 36316, 35, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff, t9/19; cum 134K 4/20;
• 36317, 584, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH, Croff, t10/19; cum 95K 4/20;
• 36318, 392, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, Croff, t10/19; cum 441K 4/20; just came back on line, 3/20;
• 22377; went off line shortly before 10/19; has just come back on line; three days in 2/20; t7/12; cum 468K 4/20; came back on line 3/20;
• 22520; went off line shortly before 10/19; back on line for two months; no evidence of halo effect; t12/12; cum 434K 4/20; came back on line 1/20;

Production profile for #36316:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	17727	17846	4966	29623	27553	2070
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	19636	19557	6466	32829	30578	2251
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	17324	17254	6677	25900	25640	260
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	24649	24811	8648	43571	9977	33594
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	29752	29814	10620	58513	0	58513
BAKKEN	11-2019	23	22184	21828	7969	46776	0	46776
BAKKEN	10-2019	3	2395	2283	0	0	0	0

Advantaged Oil -- MRO, Reunion Bay -- June 20, 2020

The well:

• 18243, 646, MRO, Gladys USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t1/10; cum 403K 4/20; 

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	4895	4948	3399	3034	2754	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	8402	8382	8022	5687	4987	215
BAKKEN	2-2020	19	7033	6975	0	4191	4171	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	2	2	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	4	180	406	38	267	206	38
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	2343	2421	510	3021	2406	292
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	2196	2151	482	2434	2065	59
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	1762	1773	448	2437	435	1717
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	1576	1713	435	2179	0	1916

Advantaged Oil -- MRO, Reunion Bay -- June 20, 2020

These wells were added to the list of "wells to follow up on May 8, 2020. We will come back to them later, but look at production profile for #19834:

May 8, 2020: #20122; MRO, Reunion Bay; lots of fracking in the area;

• 20122, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;
• 19833, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;
• 19834, has been off line; just coming back into production, 3/20;

• 19834, 1,291, MRO, Jacob Madison 11-27H, Reunion Bay, t8/11; cum 367K 4/20; recent production: '

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	7492	7335	3804	5003	174	4232
BAKKEN	3-2020	27	5345	5346	4602	4974	376	4148
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	0	0	161	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	2115	2056	454	2009	1449	256
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	1970	1912	410	1955	1439	227
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	2216	2288	443	2236	1894	29
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	2233	2206	459	2330	2016	0

Global Electricity Consumption With Great Reader Comment -- June 20, 2020

Updates

Later, 4:39 p.m. CDT: with regard to growing global electricity demand what will power that supply?

A reader, providing an incredibly good reply, suggests there is a confluence of several factors that are very rapidly impacting global energy paradigms, economics, industrial activities, and geopolitics at the very highest levels.

Starting with the relatively recent introduction of CCGPs (Combined Cycle Gas Plants) ... These ultra efficient units consume little to no fuel during the 10/12 'slow' hours of the day, only to then ramp up within a few minutes to provide needed (and high revenue producing) power during the late morning and early evening 'rush hours'. These plants have VERY low operational costs. A just opened 1,000 Mw plant outside Pittsburgh employs only 23 full time workers.

The fuel for these plants that are being deployed on a global scale ranging from Brazil (northern and southern), Jamaica, Bangladesh, Croatia, Pakistan (world's busiest FSRU) is natgas that has been liquefied (LNG), transported on ships that burn the Boil Off Gas for fuel (practically free fuel), and then delivered/stored/vaporized in floating structures called Floating Storage and Regassifying Units (FSRUs).

Both Thailand and the Philippines are going to emplace FSRUs as their domestic, conventional supplies deplete.

The massive projects just announced between Exxon and Vietnam will join the already announced construction of huge power plants by which Vietnam expects to capture much of the future manufacturing fleeing China.

As the cost of Asian LNG is currently in the $3/$4 mmbtu range (WAY cheaper than Siberian piped gas), cheap, abundant fuel supplies are anticipated for decades to come to enable these - and many other - ambitious projects to continue to flourish.

Original Post

This report is an incredibly interesting report. One needs to spend some time on it.

Re-posting:

Global electricity demand growing faster than population: link here. Previously posted, but not sure if I included that link. Also, great graphics at this link.

Global consumption:

Some comments:

• it appears GDP per capita increased by a similar amount, on a percentage basis, for most of these countries; about 20% over eight years, 2000 - 2017, inclusive;
• what is most remarkable is the fact that per capita GDP for the US is so much greater than Germany and Japan and the US kept up the pace since 2000;
• also most interesting is that per capita electricity demand decreased ever so slightly over the eight years for the US, Germany but apparently NOT for Japan; 
• for all the bad press Russia gets, it appears to be doing quite well, based on percentage change;
• for all the "great" press China gets, it is amazing how far it lags, both in per capita GDP and per capital electricity demand; India? even worse;
• it is interesting to see where Mexico falls; much worse than both China, Russia
• this only goes through 2017; the number absolute numbers will change remarkably for the years 2020 - 2022; but the relative changes will not be that great, they may not change at all; it's quite possible, that the US will out-pace all the rest
• Russia: too dependent on oil compared to the US;
• Germany, Japan could be effected by black swan events in 2020 much more so than the US;

For US investors: this appears to be an open-book test.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Another link here.

And, still, yet another link:

Notes From All Over -- Early Afternoon -- Saturday Edition -- June 20, 2020

Global electricity demand growing faster than population: link here. Previously posted, but not sure if I included that link. Also, great graphics at this link.

Tesla: files to postpone annual meeting. Perhaps more to follow.

Occidental, EOG: upgraded at SunTrust on free cash flow.

Movies: AMC reverses course; will require masks on theater-goers.

Apple: may announce Intel divorce as soon as Monday, June 22, 2020.

Exxon: restores Guyana oil production.

Rigs don't matter: this is such a great article.

• Natural gas production didn't drop as much as we had thought at the beginning of the oil production shut-in.
• Our NG bull thesis was predicated on the idea that once US shale oil producers shut-in production, the proportional amount of associated gas production will be lost. Since US oil production fell from ~12.5 mb/d down to ~10 mb/d, this drop of 20% should've translated to ~6 Bcf/d of production loss in associated gas production. Instead, we've only seen a drop of ~3 Bcf/d.
• Isn't that interesting? LOL. Too bad HFIR didn't go into greater depth on why natural gas production did not drop. Something wrong with their model? Will they adjust their model? 
• For bulls, it looks like all HFIR can count on is hotter weather, increased a/c demand. We'll see.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wuhan flu: may have been in Italy as early as December, 2019. If true, the global strategy to flatten the curve may have been the worst possible strategy chosen in early 2020.  If so, the CDC / WHO let policy makers down. It appears that in the big scheme of things, the "lockdown" did little to change the virulence of the virus or its spread, and has merely drawn out the pandemic. We have not even entered the "second wave" which many predicted by now.

And right on cue, I found this after posting the above note:

One last comment: all of this suggests no one really understands viruses. Or at least, how to make rational public policy.

Week 25: June 14, 2020 -- June 20, 2020

Top story of the week:

• PGA player tests positive for Covid-19 after just one "live" tournament; after seven NASCAR races, not one driver has tested positive -- social distancing works;
• Twitter reinstates ZeroHedge;

The week's best graphic:

• The price of the White Mischief paperback has dropped;

Most under-reported story:

• Tesla sales plunge; Sweden deaths surge;

Smallest story with biggest headline:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

• Russia is happy with $50-oil; 
• Saudi Arabia update;

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

• Natural gas fill rate;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Amtrak to cut service to Williston to three days per week;

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top ND stories:

• This month's Legacy Fund deposit lowest in history;  
• Drought becoming a problem in North Dakota;
• Legacy Fund rebounds after losing value in March and April;
• Passenger traffic increasing at eight commercial airports in North Dakota;
• Sturgis City Council sanctions motorcycle rally;
• JP Morgan predicts $100-oil based on cyclical nature of the industry;
• Hess Corp ranked top energy company in "Best Corporate Citizen";
• US fracking slowdown creates DUC well backlog -- Rystad Energy;
• Global electricity consumption continues to rise faster than population;
• IEA sees largest drop in oil demand in history but predicts biggest ever jump in 2021;

Operators:

• BR's Cherry pad in Haystack Butte; and, here; 
• CLR to report three new Brooklyn wells;

Operations:

• The incredible BR Tailgunner pad; and, here;
• The incredible MRO Nokelby USA well; and, here;

Advantaged oil:

• A Zavanna Usher well; 

500K oil:

• Third generation monster wells have been updated; 
• A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust well goes over 500K;
• An Equinor Cheryl well to hit 500K this summer;
• An Oasis Rolfson well to hit 500K this summer;

Natural gas:

• And bitcoin;

Commentary:

• Huge expectations: a Corona virus vaccine;
• Does protesting lower the risk of spreading Wuhan flu?
• Saudi Arabia successfully floods the world with oil; and, here;
• Permian vs Bakken: the Permian wins;