The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 06/17/20

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

The BR Tailgunner Wells -- One Well: 123K In One Month -- June 17, 2020

The BR Tailgunner wells.

Lynn Helms opined years ago that one-on-one, Three Forks wells would be better than middle Bakken wells.

Six new permits, #37645 - #37650, inclusive --

Operator: BR
Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
Comments:

BR has permits for a 6-well Tailgunner pad in section SWSE 19-149-96, all about 280' FSL and 1900' FEL;

The BR Tailgunner pads:

the first pad is a 10-well pad sited at the north end in section 18-149-96, and running south into section 19;
the new pad is a six-well pad sited at the south end in section 19-149-96 and will run north, parallel to wells from the first pad

The graphic:

The five existing, producing Tailgunner wells from the north:

35686, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH,
35687, SI/A, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, see production below;
35688, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1C MBH,
35689, SI/A, BR, Tailgunner 1D TFH, see production below;
35690 F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, see production below;

Production, early:

35690, 54K over 13 days extrapolates to 123,900 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	13	53936	53690	23690	63486	49400	13398

35689, 16K over 5 days extrapolates to 93,570 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	5	15595	15431	5400	96736	95408	0

35687, 62K over 27 days extrapolates to 69,004 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	27	62104	61449	39847	69452	58390	10249

BR Reports Huge Wells; Six New Permits -- June 17, 2020

Active rigs:

	6/17/2020	06/17/2019	06/17/2018	06/17/2017	06/17/2016
Active Rigs	12	62	62	57	28

Six new permits, #37645 - #37650, inclusive --

Operator: BR
Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
Comments:

BR has permits for a 6-well Tailgunner pad in section SWSE 19-149-96, all about 280' FSL and 1900' FEL;
the BR Tailgunner wells are tracked here;

Nothing else except re-surveying an Enerplus location:

36281, Enerplus, Elephant 148-94-03A-10H-TF;

The BR Tailgunner pads:

the first pad is a 10-well pad sited at the north end in section 18-149-96, and running south into section 19;
the new pad is a six-well pad sited at the south end in section 19-149-96 and will run north, parallel to wells from the first pad

The graphic:

The five existing, producing Tailgunner wells from the north:

35686, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH,
35687, SI/A, BR, Tailgunner 1B TFH, see production below;
35688, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1C MBH,
35689, SI/A, BR, Tailgunner 1D TFH, see production below;
35690 F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, see production below;

Production, early:

35690, 54K over 13 days extrapolates to 123,900 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	13	53936	53690	23690	63486	49400	13398

35689, 16K over 5 days extrapolates to 93,570 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	5	15595	15431	5400	96736	95408	0

35687, 62K over 27 days extrapolates to 69,004 bbls over one 30-day month:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2020	27	62104	61449	39847	69452	58390	10249

Huge Expectations -- Corona Virus Vaccine -- June 17, 2020

This is the first paragraph in Carl Elliott's essay, "An Ethical Path to a Covid Vaccine" in the most recent issue of The New York Review of Books:

When will we get a vaccine? That's the question Americans have been asking since the novel coronavirus shut down much of the country in March. Dr Anthony Fauci says it could happen this year. Others think it will take a lot longer. The HPV vaccine took fifteen years to develop. The chickenpox vaccine took twenty-eight years. No widely effective vaccine has ever been developed for many life-threatening viruses, including cytomegalovirus and HIV.

And once developed, there are already questions how effective "the Covid-19 vaccine" will be. It should be noted that the "annual seasonal flu" vaccine is said to be only 45% effective.

By the way, there's a report out today that African-Americans are very skittish about being part of any study to test the efficacy of any Wuhan flu vaccine. It turns out that the memory of the infamous syphilis study on Tuskegee airmen runs deep.

There is still no syphilis vaccine and researchers have been working on it since at least 1932 -- eighty-eight years.

Carl Elliott is a professor at the University of Minnesota and the recipient of a 2018 Guggenheim Fellowship and a National Endowment for the Humanities Public Scholar Award. He is working on a book about whistleblowers and unethical medical research.

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Texas

Do you emember that "fake" story yesterday about how the number of cases in Anderson County, Texas, jumped from 103 to 989 literally overnight?

If the explanations were correct (and I knew they were), I predicted there would be few, if any new cases, reported in the next twenty-fours hours. How did that prediction work out? There was one new infection in the past twenty-fours in Anderson County. Ka-ching. Woo-hoo!

Another Close Shave -- And A Haircut -- The Algore Ninja Knife-Bomb -- June 17, 2020

This is quite the weapon.

Google for link.

The journey of two senior Al Qaeda-aligned commanders in northwestern Syria on Sunday was suddenly cut short by a targeted U.S.-led strike — only it doesn't appear that they were killed by explosives, but a missile packed with knives.

Video of the aftermath circulating on social media shows that the vehicle of the terrorist leaders – Jordanian Qassam ul-Urdini and Yemeni Bilal al-Sanaani – was mostly untouched, with just one side severed and the roof smashed in, prompting defense analysts to point to the use of a "secret" missile jointly developed by both the Department of Defense and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Later today, I assume Al Gore will claim credit for inventing the weapon. And he could have. I don't know. He has claimed to have invented a lot things.

It is a variation of the Hellfire anti-tank missile, referred to as the R9X, and internally called the "Flying Ginsu" or the "ninja bomb," and it just might drastically shape the way war is waged given its exactitude and subsequent ability to vastly reduce the risk of collateral damage and civilian casualties.

"The Hellfire R9X missile is a modified version of the Hellfire anti-tank missile, the likes of which have been featured on America drones like the Reaper and Predator. The reference to knives is no accident, as it features multiple steel blades that emerge from the missile moments before impact," said [a spokesperson].

"The result is a much smaller kill radius, which can limit the damage caused by the missile to the intended target area. Such a feature is increasingly needed for counterterrorism campaigns, where the fighting is closer-in, and the environment around the target is more dense and likely to be filled with non-combatants."

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- June 17, 2020

WTI: down 0.68%; down 26 cents; trading at $38.12.

A reader who knows "this stuff" a whole better than I do, and who follows it a lot more closely noted this after this week's OPEC numbers came out:

First take on the OPEC report out today; global oil production exceeded supply by 8.7 million bpd in May, even after OPEC cuts of 6.3 mbpd. caveat: their 2nd quarter demand figures were unrevised from a month ago, and a lot has happened in the past month.

We will see this in context early next week when Focus on Fracking weekly update is posted late Sunday night.

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Meanwhile, The USA / EIA Numbers

Link here:

US crude oil in storage: 539.3 million bbls; a whopping 15% above an already-fat level of storage;
US crude oil increased by a relatively small 1.2 million bbls from the previous week;
refineries operating at 73.8% capacity; pretty much unchanged;
jet fuel supplied was down 62.3% compared with same four-week period last year; again, pretty much unchanged
US crude oil imports, at 6.6 million bpd, right at the four-week average of 6.7 million bpd

Re-balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 71	April 8, 2020	15.2	484.4
Week 72	April 15, 2020	19.2	503.6
Week 72	April 22, 2020	15.0	518.6
Week 73	April 29, 2020	9.0	527.6
Week 74	May 6, 2020	4.6	532.2
Week 75	May 13, 2020	-0.7	531.5
Week 76	May 20, 2020	-5.0	526.5
Week 77	May 28, 2020	7.9	534.4
Week 78	June 3, 2020	-2.1	532.3
Week 79	June 10, 2020	5.7	538.1
Week 80	June 17, 2020	1.2	539.3

Jet fuel delivered:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 5	4/11/2020	-39.70%
Week 6	4/18/2020	-53.60%
Week 7	4/24/2020	-61.60%
Week 8	5/1/2020	-66.60%
Week 9	5/8/2020	-68.50%
Week 10	5/15/2020	-67.90%
Week 11	May 22, 2020	-66.60%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	-68.70%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	-63.70%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	-62.30%

US crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 14	June 17, 2020	6.6	-0.222	-10.000%