First things first: twelve to go. NASCAR Gander Truck Series / Charlotte --Elliott leading Kyle Busch.
ten to go: 0.34 second separation between Elliott (leader) / Kyle (second place)
eight to go: 0.39 second separation; no one else in play for first / second
six to go: 0.39 second separation; it's going to be a heckuva finish;
four to go: 0.70 second separation; Kyle Busch got caught up in lap traffic;
two to go: 1.10 second separation; Elliott needs to see the white flag;
final lap: 0.77 second separation;
Elliott wins; well-deserved; good for him;
TCM: this is pretty coincidental. I went through a short Diana Ross (and the Supremes) stage over the weekend. I'm pretty much over it now. And, what do you know? On TCM now: "Lady Sings the Blues," for which Diana Ross was nominated for an Oscar for her portrayal of Bille Holiday.
APPL: I normally don't follow / pay attention to macOS updates -- the software that "runs" the Apple Macs. I simply download the new updates and leave it at that. It's generally a pain; once downloaded a few tweaks are necessary to bring the desktop back to the way I like it. Be that as it may.
Interestingly enough, the newest update, released this week, macOS Catalina 10.15.5, addresses two issues that actually caught my attention.
First, over the past few months, I've noticed that my computer would freeze up. It usually happened when large files were being downloaded; many of these files were being downloaded in the background of which I was not particularly aware. I thought it was simply "one of those things," re-booted, and moved on. But now I see it's a "recognized" problem for the current macOS version (10.14.6 - my current version). Apparently, the new version addresses this issue. I'm impressed.
Second, battery management. This is even more interesting and counter to what I had been told years ago about Mac batteries. Years ago I was explicitly told by Apple Store employees it was best to keep my Mac computer batteries fully charged. Interesting. From MacRumors:
The macOS Catalina 10.15.5 update introduces a new Battery Health Management feature
for Mac notebooks. Battery Health Management is meant to extend the
overall lifespan of a Mac's battery by reducing the rate of chemical
aging.
Battery Health Management analyzes the battery health of a laptop and
its charging pattern, and in some cases, it will preserve battery
longevity and health by not charging a MacBook to its full capacity.
Keeping a MacBook charged at its full capacity at all times can reduce
battery health.
Very, very interesting.
My hunch is that Rush Limbaugh, if his chemotherapy was not "kicking his @$$" would have mentioned it on his show. I don't listen to all of Rush, but I do listen to much of Rush. He's an Apple aficionado and loves to tell listeners of these new developments. It's possible he's mentioned this on his show and I simply missed it. I missed his show today, for example.
********************************
They Never Quit
It wasn't enough to destroy the global economy with a draconian response on the advice of the WHO, CDC, and others.
Now, they want to double down, triple down, quadruple down, whatever it takes.
Exhibit A: cover article in this week's issue of The Economist: seize the moment -- the chance to flatten the climate curve. No, I don't subscribe and I don't read, but I happened to see it at my son-in-law's house.
If two months of shutting down the economy can cause an economic depression, imagine what the faux environmentalists could do to the economy.
AAPL: I just returned from Costco -- a family errand -- and yes, I wore the requisite mask. I always enjoy looking at the Apple Inc area. Wow, well stocked with iMac table top models. $1,049 or $1,099 -- I forget which, perhaps the latter. But what I was really interested in were the iPads since I have given Sophia my relatively new iPad. Incredibly, Costco was sold out of all iPads! Amazing. And so, there you have it.
Bicycles: I also stopped by my favorite bicycle shop, the Grapevine Bicycle Shop.
The sole proprietor was working on bicycles. The shop looked empty, except for dozens of used bikes. Mike was not wearing a mask.
I was in the market for a new bike for the middle granddaughter, but Mike says he has sold out his entire inventory and no more bicycles are in the pipeline. Apparently suppliers were shut down just like everyone else.
He did have a tandem bike marked down from $1,999 to $1,499. But he is way behind on servicing bikes.
He now closes his shop on Monday simply so he can devote more time to servicing. I told him I had planned to bring my bike in for routine servicing. He says I can expect to wait six weeks for him to get to it. I remarked that I was impressed with the loyalty of his customers. He said it has nothing to do with loyalty: bikers simply can't find anyone to service their bikes. Folks are coming from as far away as Ft Worth to get their bikes serviced at his shop. There must be two dozen (or more) bicycle shops between here and Ft Worth, but clearly not enough. Interesting. I've been visiting this shop since 2013; this is the emptiest (by far) it's ever been; and, yet, the busiest.
Reminder: NASCAR truck racing tonight; Cup Series tomorrow night.
Market: holding?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Business headline: the three major indices advanced (sic) as hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine and improving data around consumer activity picked up.
Markets go up and down for myriad reasons; every day headline writers and analysts try to trim the reason / the explanation to fit the room allotted for a headline. My first thought: the never-Trumpers will stress the vaccine as an explanation, knowing that the vaccine is well down the road, well past November 3. The never-Trumpers will build the vaccine expectations of Americans to impossible heights, and as we enter October, with no vaccine on the horizon, the story will change: vaccine trials failing, delayed, questioned. Pick your verb. So, we'll see.
Economy: the real question -- to what degree will all the government stimulus programs have on the economy over the next six months? Should be fascinating to watch.
Coronavirus -- North Dakota: both total and active corona viruses in NorthDakota have decreased as the state lab retests dozens of cases following the recent malfunction of two pieces of lab equipment. State data is tracked here. Let's see if this headline holds up over the next two weeks. As of yesterday, the state shows a total of 54 deaths attributed to corona virus with one new death "yesterday." I find it hard to believe that ND is alone in having "bad" equipment. Deaths per million: North Dakota (71); Maine (58); South Dakota (57); TEXAS (53); Tennessee (49); and then nine more states to Hawaii (12), dead last (no pun intended). At the other end of the scale: Iowa (145); Minnesota (159); Michigan (525). The latter, in same ballpark as New Jersey, New York.
Most readers know that I was an Air Force pediatrician in a previous life -- a long, long time ago, in a far away place. In addition, I was the commander (CEO) of one overseas clinic; one hospital near a combat zone (no, not Chicago); and, the flagship hospital of the Air Force's combat command.
A reader asked me, based on that experience I suppose, a question regarding Wuhan flu.
Apparently her children have an upcoming appointment with their pediatrician. Apparently access to corona virus testing is "easily" accessible in the reader's area. There are two tests:
a test for "active disease"; and,
a test for "history of disease."
For now, I will refer to the first test as the "active disease" test and the second test as the "follow up serology" test.
The reader asked whether she should have her children tested (she included some additional background which might affect one's decision).
My unedited, not-rready-for-prime-time reply:
1. I don't know how easy it is to
access testing in Texas. But something suggests it is not as easy as
folks suggest: there are no public service announcements (PSAs) on
television that I've seen; there are no billboards that I've seen; there
are no bulletins in my apartment complex; there are no bulletins in the
grocery stores; there are no bulletins at the day care center; all of
which suggest to me, a lot of political talk that tests are easily
available but not necessarily accurate. I don't consider getting a
doctor's appointment in this state "easy." It's quite difficult to say
the least. Most physicians in our area do not accept Medicare.
2. There seems to be no sense to get tested for active disease unless there's an indication. If it's negative, and the follow-up serology test is negative, what does one do? Keep getting the active COVID test every week?
3. The antibody test makes sense. But again, if negative, how often does one test? Monthly?
4. Because the tests are apparently easily available in your area, I would get both tests for the boys. The question / answer falls into this category: will you sleep better at night knowing you at least
got them tested even if not indicated? Yes, you will (sleep better at
night). And I'm not being sarcastic or mean. If you don't take advantage
of the opportunity, it will bug you until you finally do.
5.
Now my snide remark, LOL: I'm sleeping comfortably each night not
knowing my status. Sorry. I wouldn't be me if I didn't include a snarky
comment. I have no idea how my wife puts up with me. Social distancing
works great for the two of us. LOL.
Political pundit: Biden has limited his VP choices to three -- a
former California AG; a former Georgia congresswoman who boldly claims she will be president of the US by 2040; and, a second
term Florida congresswoman. They all have three (or more) things in
common. Klobuchar and Warren are off the list after his "you ain't black
if you vote for Trump" comment. I suppose, one could argue, Pocahontas, as a Native American, has a slight chance of getting back on the list.
I now have a new link: Biden gaffes. This is the screenshot of today's link:
See third story. She was one of three on Biden's short list for VP. "Was" is the operative word.
By the way, there were more gaffes in that Charlamagne interview than the media has reported (and not simply because it was overshadowed by the most egregious comment). Example: when asked if a slogan of the Biden election campaign was "Lift Every Voice," he said it was not. In fact, it was.
The slogan was released May 4, 2020, but Joe may have already forgotten. It's my understanding that short-term memory is the first to go.
Re-posting: the other day I posted a lengthy note from a reader
regarding a "loner" well that is taken off line -- how does that affect
the lease? Here is the link.A
new response -- regarding a different issue -- does a Madison well hold
a Bakken well "lease"? A reader provides the answer at that same link.
Focus on fracking: posted a couple of nights ago, but I delayed posting due to decreased readership over Memorial Day weekend.
well completions fell 34% in April
Saudi's biggest nightmare: US shale with almost a year's worth of DUC backlog
by the way, I've mentioned that numerous times with regard to the Bakken: the number of inactive wells and DUCs easily exceeds a year's worth of drilling; in fact, at around 900 DUCs, the Bakken has more DUCs than wells that will be completed this year
Zero Hedge. Permanently banned at Twiiter, but not here. Link here. (For the life of me, I don't understand why Twitter would ban Zero Hedge. Twitter must be afraid of something.)
Michigan governor: strictest lockdown in the country; it turns out her husband missed the memo; used political position to push request;
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
After all the recent rains, there has been a huge return of mallard ducks in the area, and as everyone knows, they always show up in pairs.
On the way to school this morning I pointed out a pair of mallard ducks to Sophia. She loved seeing another pair, but then asked, what are mallard ducks?
I talked about mallard ducks for a bit, explaining the difference in their coloring that makes them so distinctive. The following is almost verbatim.
She then asked, "Oh, tell me again, is female the daddy?"
I told her "female was the mommy, and..." and so on and so on.
She replied: "Oh, that's right, I knew that. But that was before corona. I've forgotten everything. I will have to learn it all again when Ms Simone comes back."
Ms Simone is her teacher at Tutor Time who has taught her everything. I'm simply the Uber-driver.
is there a chance the 20-21 NFL season will be delayed? Yes, the likelihood is 100%. Same link.
unlike NASCAR, the NFL will not play in front of empty stadiums
with NASCAR, the networks seldom even "show" the stands (except at the finish); the stands are generally empty except for a very small area -- and that's just in front of the finish line; NASCAR doesn't need "social distancing" rules for the fans; the fans have socially distanced themselves from NASCAR for years;
with the NFL, the fans are almost as much as the game as the players themselves; both for television optics and for the teams playing;
Timeline:
there is already talk of a 3-week delay in the start of the season, which brings us to October;
it's not a stretch to see a further one-month delay
at the end of the day, all that is really necessary is to play enough games (maybe seven) to salvage the playoffs and the Super Bowl
everyone has penciled in November 4, 2020, as the last day of the Wuhan flu pandemic
by then, everything is "back to normal"
So, the Dak Prescott / Dallas Cowboys story hinges on how the pandemic plays out.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is conflating the results
of two different types of coronavirus tests, distorting several
important metrics and providing the country with an inaccurate picture
of the state of the pandemic.
We’ve learned that the CDC is making, at
best, a debilitating mistake: combining test results that diagnose
current coronavirus infections with test results that measure whether
someone has ever had the virus.
The upshot is that the government’s
disease-fighting agency is overstating the country’s ability to test
people who are sick with COVID-19. The agency confirmed to The Atlantic
on Wednesday that it is mixing the results of viral and antibody tests,
even though the two tests reveal different information and are used for
different reasons.
This is not merely a technical error. States have set quantitative
guidelines for reopening their economies based on these flawed data
points.
Several states—including Pennsylvania, the site of one of
the country’s largest outbreaks, as well as Texas, Georgia, and
Vermont—are blending the data in the same way. Virginia likewise mixed
viral and antibody test results until last week, but it reversed course
and the governor apologized for the practice after it was covered by the
Richmond Times-Dispatch and The Atlantic. Maine similarly separated its data on Wednesday; Vermont authorities claimed they didn’t even know they were doing this.
The widespread use of the practice means that it remains difficult to
know exactly how much the country’s ability to test people who are
actively sick with COVID-19 has improved.
“You’ve got to be kidding me,” Ashish Jha,
the K. T. Li Professor of Global Health at Harvard and the director of
the Harvard Global Health Institute, told us when we described what the
CDC was doing. “How could the CDC make that mistake? This is a mess.”
Laurene Powell Jobs, the majority owner of The Atlantic magazine, is worth an estimated $19.5 billion—a gain of $3.1 billion since mid-March. Despite the gain, The Atlantic,
the publication in which she has a controlling stake, announced plans
this week to lay off 20% of its staff, making Powell Jobs the latest
billionaire to face questions about obligations to workers in the face
of a ruinous pandemic.
In a letter to the magazine's staff, chairman David Bradley said, “We
are informing 68 of our colleagues that we will not have a place for
them on The Atlantic’s new course. The contraction affects
mainly our events, sales, and editorial staffs.” Bradley added that the
company will freeze pay for its remaining staffers through the rest of
the year, and that executives will take a pay cut.
The news stirred agitation on social media, particularly within media
circles. “Laurene Powell Jobs, the billionaire majority owner of The
Atlantic, is rich enough to be able to pay the salaries of all 68 laid
off Atlantic staffers every year for the next 3,000 years,” wrote Zach Schonfeld, a freelance writer and former Newsweek staffer, in one of many critical posts.
OXY: CEO Vicki Hollub has done all she can to save jobs at her company and protect the company's sharesholders.
Note: the other day I posted a lengthy note from a reader regarding a "loner" well that is taken off line -- how does that affect the lease. Here is the link.A new response -- regarding a different issue -- does a Madison well hold a Bakken well "lease"? A reader provides the answer at that same link.
Autos: about a month ago I received what looks like, in hindsight, the most prescient comment I've seen regarding the pandemic.
The writer suggested the Wuhan flu panic will lead to a surge in driving.
I've now seen three very different sources suggest the same thing: to get to work, the best method of social distancing is .... the automobile, preferably one's own automobile, but even Uber/Lyft are better than ... the subway.
So, we'll see. Whether it pans out or not,
The writer also noted that driving may be about the only "safe" entertainment for the family to do as a group. One wonders if RV rentals might show a bit of a surge this vacation season; most folks won't want to stay in motels overnight, and restaurants could be a challenge. RVs/ Gasoline is dirt cheap.
I have to commend the writer for sending me that comment over a month ago. Wow. By the way: the most recent article in which I saw a writer suggest that automobiles will be seen as the best way for social distancing was in the article on the Hertz bankruptcy, reported this past Friday night.
NASCAR: I'm still blown away by five consecutive nights of live NASCAR racing. Who would have guessed? A quick google look at headlines:
Fox's NASCAR race tops Sunday ratings; 'Little Big Shots' season finale dips (never even heard of it)
Michael Jordan vs NASCAR? Racing at Darlington again dominated TV ratings Wednesday
TV ratings: big numbers for NASCAR's return at Darlington
NASCAR return scores 6.3 million viewers for FoX as live racing ends its pit stop (incredibly bad headline)
Sunday Ratings: NASCAR leads Fox to modest victory [hey, a win's a win)
and the list goes on
TCM, war movies over the weekend --
the worst war movie ever; even the studio agreed, forcing the director to place a disclaimer at the end: The Battle of the Bulge, 1954
most painful to watch (and I've seen it several times): The Great Escape
Safe haven: this is very, very interesting. Noted first at twitter but now I see the article: India considering state-owned crude oil storage in the US;
Safe haven: Saudi Arabia is already doing it -- but instead of storage tanks onshore, Saudi Arabia is floating upwards of twenty or more VLCCs/ULCCs off the coast of the US.
Blood on his hands: and he admits it -- "we were all wrong." Some were, shall we say, less wrong than others?
Political pundit: Biden has limited his VP choices to three -- a former California AG; a former Georgia congresswoman; and, a second term Florida congresswoman They all have three (or more) things in common. Klobuchar and Warren are off the list after his "you ain't black if you vote for Trump" comment.
Medical fallout several articles suggesting Wuhan flu has not been good for the health professions --
hospitals empty and idle, including hospitals in the "hot zones"
staff being laid off; not enough work
"doctors face pay cuts, furloughs and supply shortages as corona virus pushes primary care to the bring" -- CNBC headline
primary vaccinations for infants and children at all-time lows; link to panic over pandemic (thank you CDC)
Nurses and para-professional help: I do believe nurses and other allied health professionals have been hurt much, much more than physicians.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. Market futures: looking very, very good.
OPEC basket: apparently unchanged, at $28.43. This is such incredibly bad news for Saudi Arabia. I'm crying crocodile tears.
Social distancing with Sophia:
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:
$34.06
5/26/2020
05/26/2019
05/26/2018
05/26/2017
05/26/2016
Active Rigs
14
65
65
50
29
Fifteen wells coming off the confidential list over the long Memorial Day weekend, today --
Tuesday, May 26, 2020: 85 for the month; 135 for the quarter, 362 for the year:
37203, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 11-8-5-157N-99W-LL TFH, Dublin, no production data,
36962, drl/A, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HA, Heart Butte, no production data,
Crude oil markets have been anything but dull lately. After imploding to
unimaginable, negative values last month, prices have been on a tear
since and are now sitting in the low $30s/bbl range.
That’s not great
for producers, but kind of like social distancing flattens the curve,
the current price level should keep production volumes in check and
stave off the worst of the potential financial distress for most Permian
producers, for now.
So, what has been driving the price rise? Similar
to the pauses in economic and social activity that many cities have
taken lately, many Permian producers have recently decided to take a
wait-and-see approach on crude prices and throttle back output. Today,
we provide an update on the always-dynamic Permian Basin crude oil
market and how producer curtailments have materialized in May.
