From oilprice this evening, link here. I wouldn't have bothered with the first banner headline but I have a link at the sidebar at the right, near the top, which links to a question I had when this all started: whether the Bakken or the Permian would be hit harder.
First item:
The second item is very, very interesting. Note the oil price rally (banner below). At least for now the price rally continues. It's fascinating but meaningless. It's meaningless because it's not predictable; it doesn't make sense; and, there is no way one can model it.
What interests me is the relative prices: comparing the various crude oils.
But what really, really interests me is the "OPEC Basket." This is the third time in about five days that I've brought this up. I assumed it was a mistake. Oilprice very, very, very rarely makes a mistake on their banner oil prices but it does happen. But if this was an error, certainly after 24 hours, or 48 hours, or even 72 hours, this error would have been corrected. But it hasn't changed. I don't get it. I still think that even if it's an error, it reflects "reality," whatever "reality" is these days.
Second item:
I checked the official OPEC site, and they show "OPEC Basket" rising but still below WTI. The OPEC site lags a bit; the most recent date is May 14, 2020 (I'm writing this on May 17, 2020), and the OPEC Basket is $24.93.
I still think things are too quiet in the Mideast which I first mentioned May 7, 2020 -- that's ten days ago. Wow, time flies.
How is the president doing with regard to the pandemic? Link here. Most recent results from the Rasmussen daily presidential poll:
Once folks get their next $2,000 check -- thank you, Ms Pelosi -- his polling numbers should rise again. What a great country.
First major professional sport that "comes back" as the US begins to re-open during Wuhan flu outbreak. It is fitting that this "first" race is at Darlington, South Carolina. Pretty amazing.
It will be interesting to see the ratings. The only "live" sports prior to this was the national (?) "cornhole" championship which was held this past week. I can't make this stuff up.
[Later: Kevin Harvick wins. Nice job. Well deserved. It almost appears every race driver was on his best behavior. His 50th Monster Energy Series career win. Wow. Best news: Ryan Newman raced. He finished. And he finished in 15th place, a solid race. I assume his family is much relieved. He says he still has no memory of the Daytona crash.]
Next race: Wednesday, three nights from now, also at Darlington, a night race. What a great country. I guess the professional golfers are still afraid of the virus. LOL.
I agree with the "overall" sentiment but I think the top 1% will do very, very well coming out of the Wuhan flu lock down, and the top 10% -- not just the top 1% -- will do "largely" fine.
My hunch is that the gap between the top 10% and the middle class will widen.
Significantly.
I don't think the "middle class" will be smaller, unless they change the definitions. The middle class includes the lower middle class, the middle middle class, and the upper middle class. I think the middle class will stay about the same size but within the middle class things will shift to the left (left: less well off).
As usual, the investor class should do very, very well, compared to non-investors. In addition to everything else, and all things being equal, my hunch is that the Wuhan flu "lock down" affected the non-investor class a whole lot more than the investor class.
With regard to the "country being horrifically in debt," I
think one needs to compare the economic debacle with the Great
Depression, the global economy after World War, and the US and global
economy after WWII, before using the word "horrifically."
Paul Krugman is not concerned about the debt, nor are my sub-continent Indian neighbors.
Amazon is back! Folks might remember that Amazon had to prioritize shipments during the height of the Wuhan flu panic.
Books were very, very low priority; masks were very, very high priority.
Yesterday, I ordered a book for our older daughter in Portland, OR -- yesterday, May 16, 2020. Today, May 17, 2020, less than 24 hours later, I get an e-mail from our daughter that the book has been delivered and she is already reading it. LOL.
Wow. Even if Barnes and Noble had been open I could not have gotten the book to her faster. Not only that, mailing was free (yes, I know --- I pay for Amazon Prime -- so, it's really not free) and get this: cash back from the Amazon credit card has grown to such a huge amount I'm not paying for much at Amazon. This book: $0.00.
Speaking of "cash back" and loyalty cards: it's just amazing.
I order a fair amount of photograph enlargements from Walgreens. Walgreens always has coupons; sometimes one has to look for them on line but they are there. Generally, the coupons are 40% or 50% off. The prints I get back are spectacular. And then on top of that, I build up "cash" through the loyalty program. It's truly amazing. And, oh by the way, if I want to buy prints for a family member that lives elsewhere, I can have the photos printed at any Walgreens across the country and the family member can pick up photos at their nearby Walgreens.
RFG and crack spread: for help in understanding this, see comments below, including this:
RFG, reformulated gasoline. Lower vapor pressure for summer use by
limiting the amount of butane in summer gasoline vs. winter gasoline.
Plus special processing for low vapor gasoline with decent octane.
Crack
spread. Start with a gallon of crude oil. For example you paid $1.00 a
gallon. Refine it: gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, bunker fuel, jet fuel,
etc. You sell all of the products, and you get $1.20 a gallon after
selling all of the products. That gives you a crack spread of $0.20 a
gallon with a blend of all of the products. Assuming that jet fuel and
diesel are break even, making $$$ on gasoline.
Every time I see RFG, I think BFD, and every time I see "crack spread," I'm thinking some illicit drug. LOL. Seriously, the reader's explanation of "crack spread" was a huge help. Thank you.
Original Post
Perspective: it's all about one's perspective, isn't it? For example, much of the private land in North Dakota was handed down to current owners from original settlers three generations ago. Maybe four generations. Let's see: my grandfather -- my father -- me -- Sophia -- that's four generations. Sophia's counterpart in North Dakota who will inherit mineral rights isn't affected by current events at all except in the "derivative" sense. If Sophia's counterpart in North Dakota retains her mineral rights, she may be very, very happy that oil companies are taking this bruising now.
in Europe before the 19th century, wars were measured in terms of centuries (the Four Hundred Years' War, for example)
US Revolutionary War: 1775 - 1783
US Civil War: 1861 - 1865
WWI: 1914 - 1918
WWII: 1939 - 1945
The Korean War: 1950 - 1953, armistice, but no peace agreement -- so, 1950- 2020 ("frozen conflict")
Second Indochina War: 1955 - 1975
Afghanistan War: began in 2001; in 2014, the 13-year war had become the longest war fought by the US
Corona virus: may have been released in China as early as September, 2019; the US did not declare "war" until January 31, 2020 when international flights from China were banned: it's now been less than four months, and, there is already talk of an "armistice" (a gradual re-opening of the US; a peace treaty with the virus is likely never to be signed)
Winners and losers:
very, very difficult to make up for "lost time"
very difficult to make up for lost income
watching the evening news is thirty minutes one will never get back
Daily grocery store visit: I try to visit our neighborhood store once every day. During the "toilet paper crisis" I visited the store twice a day, not to buy anything, but to see how things were going. Sort of like a journalist might do. LOL. Whatever.
Now I go to the store once a day for three reasons:
to buy a fresh loaf of French bread which the oldest granddaughter likes for grilled cheese sandwiches and baguettes which the middle granddaughter and her dad like for snacking;
to buy three or four apples (two of the three granddaughters love them); Koru are their current favorites, but Fuji are an adequate substitute; never, never, never red delicious;
look for steak that has gone on sale (finding some incredible bargains)
At the same time, I am also going once a day to simply see how things are going. Right now, there are NO shortages of anything except French onion potato chip dip; three stores in our local area have been out of this item for five days now.
Observations today:
that perceived egg shortage reported by the WSJ a few weeks ago? Not here; coffins are overflowing with eggs, and a dozen large Grade A eggs are selling for $0.99;
paper goods aisle -- bathroom tissue and paper towels fill the shelves
a half gallon of premium ice cream selling for $7.99 last week is now back to $6.99/half gallon
About half of the customers are wearing face masks; few are actually following directions on the floor telling folks which way to walk down the aisles. It appears that masks great affect one's ability to see clearly and read the direction of 2-foot arrows painted on the floors. All employees are wearing masks and the shopping carts are spotless, and wiped down with disinfectant within seconds after being returned to the store.
In the local area, it almost appears that more people are wearing
their masks outdoors even if no other human being is in sight, whereas
in the very busy grocery store, about half are not wearing masks. And walking the wrong way down the aisles.
My favorite: drivers in POVs, driving with no passengers, wearing their masks.
Gasoline: most surprising -- how fast gasoline went from $1.09 to $1.55/gallon in our local area, when there is now an unprecedented 42-day supply of crude oil in this country. Why isn't the governor looking into this?
Koru apples:
Koru apples are a modern New Zealand variety of Malus domestica. They are an accidental cross between Fuji (Japanese) and Braeburn (Motueka, New Zealand), with characteristics of each. Koru is a brand name for the apple cultivar Plumac.
Word for the day: bawn.
****************************************
Water Over The Bridge
After almost steady rain for the past 24 hours, we had water over the bridge at Parr Park, Grapevine, TX.
There
are 117 of the industry’s largest crude carriers en route to ports in
the Asian country, where there have been increasing signs of a pickup in
oil demand following the outbreak of coronavirus. That’s the biggest
number of the vessels since at least the start of 2017, and quite
possibly ever. Assuming they have standard-sized cargoes on board, the
ships are likely delivering at least 230 million barrels of cargo.
The
surge in flows is just another piece of evidence underpinning the idea
that the country’s oil consumption is recovering at a time when many
other nations are still struggling to ease lockdown measures as they
combat Covid-19. China’s apparent oil demand surged by roughly 11% from
March into April, and the nation’s independent refineries are processing
at a record rates.
“Chinese purchases are done on geopolitical
grounds and pricing ground,” said Peter Sand, the chief analyst at
shipping trade group BIMCO. “The stars aligned for perfectly in 2nd half
of April.”
Many
of the shipments, due to arrive between now and mid-August, are likely
to have been purchased last month, when oil prices briefly plunged
toward zero because of a huge global overproduction of crude. U.S.
barrels traded at negative prices last month amid concern about a lack
of space to store supplies while, across the world, physical grades also
became steeply discounted.
China’s apparent oil demand rose to
11.81 million barrels a day in April, up from 10.63 million in March,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That means the vessels en route
will deliver almost 20 days of supply.
36922, 5,099, MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, 33-061-04594, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t--; cum --; fracked
9/16/20 - 9/28/20; moderate frack, 9.8 million gallons; but again, note
the "low fresh water": 66.3% (no typo) water by mass; extrapolates to 113,832 bbls over 30 days; cum 282K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21; cum 337KL 5/22; cum 391K 3/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2020
8
26150
26539
22025
30526
28983
0
BAKKEN
10-2020
17
64505
63607
67387
67918
44020
20158
36921, 4,453, MRO, Vickall USA 41-5H, 33-061-04593, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 227K 8/21; fracked
9/16/20 - 9/29/20; big frack, 10.4 million gallons; but again, note
the "low fresh water": 65.2% (no typo) water by mass but also produced water, 18.3% water by mass; extrapolates to 69,780 bbls over 30 days; cum 267K 5/22; cum 300K 3/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2020
20
46520
45615
44504
59553
56518
271
BAKKEN
10-2020
2
0
0
889
89
1
88
36923, 4,806, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8H, 33-061-04595, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 261K 8/21; fracked
9/16/20 - 9/29/20; big frack, 10.5 million gallons; but again, note
the "low fresh water": 66.2% (no typo) water by mass; extrapolates to 68,196 bbls over 30 days; cum 332K 5/22; cum 398K 3/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2020
21
47737
47558
40911
62267
59299
342
BAKKEN
10-2020
8
21575
21282
19147
21232
18886
1159
37323, 4,252, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04659, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 269K 8/21; fracked
9/16/20 - 9/26/20; moderate frack, 7.5 million gallons; but again, note
the "extremely low fresh water": 59.6% (no typo) water by mass; but 25.1% produced brine water by mass; extrapolates to 83,117 bbls over 30 days. Was off line for the month of 7/21; now back on line 8/21; cum 339K 5/22; cum 412K 3/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2020
0
0
676
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2020
18
49870
49194
71407
62825
43525
16557
The MRO A-J-2K-S pad:
36919, 3,212, MRO, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20, t11/20; cum 225K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21; now back on line 8/21; cum 300K 5/22; cum 365K 2/24; off line 3/24;
36918, 4,547, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; 18K; 10/20-; cum 334K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21; now back on line 8/21; cum 397K 5/22; cum 460K 3/24;
18692, PA/AB/781, MRO, Jasper L USA 34-5H Reunion Bay, t11/10; cum 368K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 10/20; AB; remains off line 5/22;
36920, 4,336, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, first production, 10/20; Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 328K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21; now back on line 8/21; cum 458K 5/22; cum 594K 3/24; cum 594K 3/24;
18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, 9/10; cum 343K 3/20; off line 1/19; back on line 2/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 10/20; cum 374K 8/21; was off line for the month of 7/21; now back on line 8/21; cum 397K 5/22;cum 434K 3/24;
In addition to the P-R-S-4W pad, this page also includes ten wells on two parallel pads to the north.
The wells:
33945, loc/NC-->3,970, MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04123; first production, 9/20; t10/20; cum 64K over 28 days; recent production, 63,483 bbls over 28 days extrapolates to 68,000 bbls over 30 days; cum 201K 2/21; cum 242K 4/21; cum 387K 2/23; cum 428K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2020
28
63483
63035
52810
79947
73024
3133
BAKKEN
9-2020
3
812
761
1126
1028
0
983
33946, loc/NC-->2,424, MRO, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04124; first production, 9/20; t10/20; cum 36K over 28 days; recent production, 65,439 bbls over 27 days extrapolates to 39,000 bbls over 30 days: fracked 8/26/20- 9/9/20; 8.8 million gallons of water; 67.6% water by mass; cum 144K 2/21; cum 180K 4/21; cum 314K 2/23; cum 353K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2020
28
36216
36335
60713
39208
35740
1330
BAKKEN
9-2020
3
6379
5975
15657
8920
7034
1463
33947, loc/NC-->4,632, MRO, Prior USA 44-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04125; first production, 9/20; 10/20; cum 65K over 27 days; recent production, 65,439 bbls over 27 days extrapolates to 72,000 bbls over 30 days; cum 202K 2/21; cum 245K 4/21; cum 372K 2/23; cum 402K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2020
27
65439
64934
77168
71581
64507
3211
BAKKEN
9-2020
2
159
149
942
517
0
508
37395, loc/NC-->4,798, MRO, Wallentinson USA 44-8H, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04684; first production, 9/20; t10/20; cum 49K over 19 days; recent production, 49,943 bbls over 19 days extrapolates to 78,000 bbls over 30 days; cum 226K 2/21; cum 253K 4/21; cum 372K 2/23; cum 407K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
10-2020
19
49493
50851
38867
56516
51105
2480
BAKKEN
9-2020
10
27585
25838
21622
32614
29722
1069
37403, loc/NC-->5,266, MRO, Stanfest USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04685; first production, 10/20; t10/20; cum 60K over 20 days; recent production, 59,973 bbls over 20 days extrapolates to 90,000 bbls over 30 days, fracked 8/27/20 - 9/14/20; 9.9 million gallons of water; water79.7% by mass; cum 190K 2/21; cum 257K 4/21; cum 440K 2/23; cum 496K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
2-2021
28
37394
37356
18144
67384
65089
2057
BAKKEN
1-2021
31
37512
37486
19975
47976
45692
2077
BAKKEN
12-2020
21
30168
30189
17736
36569
34745
0
BAKKEN
11-2020
11
25088
25173
19693
32424
30871
0
BAKKEN
10-2020
20
59973
59501
49539
71840
63257
5026
21631, 1,463, MRO, Waljen USA 43-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 475K 2/21; cum 549K 2/23; cum 579K 4/24;
21630, 1,378, MRO, Waltom USA 43-8TFH, Reunion Bay, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 444K 4/21; cum 514K 2/23; cum 545K 4/24;
36921, 4,453, MRO, Vickall USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 192K 4/21; cum 282K 2/23; off line, 2/23; cum 302K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
29461
57841
1-2021
58761
93262
12-2020
29618
39272
11-2020
45615
56518
36922, 5,009, MRO, Lang USA 41-8TFH, Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 245K 4/21; cum 363K 2/23; cum 393K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
27988
59251
1-2021
31782
45363
12-2020
55486
70260
11-2020
26539
28983
10-2020
63607
44020
36923, 4,806, Thorson USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 226K 4/21; cum 366K 2/23; cum 401K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
22286
39746
1-2021
33770
48418
12-2020
61982
74423
11-2020
47558
59299
10-2020
21282
18886
37323, 4,252, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, Three Forks second bench;
1600-acre spacing; fracked 9/16/20 - 9/26/20; 7.5 million gallons of
water (medium frack); 59.6% fresh water by mass; 25.1% produced water by
mass; more at this link; t10/20; cum 228K 4/21; cum 373K 2/23; cum 415K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
31131
54199
1-2021
45732
67215
12-2020
57961
73471
11-2020
676
0
10-2020
49194
43525
36919, 3,212, Klemstead USA 44-5TFH, Reunion Bay, t11/20; cum 175K 4/21; cum 336K 2/23; still F; cum 366K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
1-2021
26885
38136
12-2020
28296
36816
11-2020
39498
51019
36918, 4,547, Kolbo USA 34-5H, Reunion Bay, t10/20; cum 280K 4/21; 426K 2/23; still F; cum 462K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
18666
24814
1-2021
26140
36108
12-2020
28296
36816
11-2020
39498
51019
37515, 5,556, MRO, Pelarske USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 160K 2/21; first
month's production extrapolates to 89,847 bbls crude oil over 30 days;
second month, extrapolates to 66,334 bbls crude oil over 30 days. t10/20; cum 225K 4/21; cum 385K 2/23; still F; cum 413K 4/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
2-2021
26
20987
20946
27962
29015
26499
2401
BAKKEN
1-2021
31
28679
28738
37065
40506
38832
1543
BAKKEN
12-2020
30
34288
34548
46563
45357
43312
0
BAKKEN
11-2020
21
46434
47163
60454
57867
55128
0
BAKKEN
10-2020
10
29949
28553
41138
39322
32402
5159
18692, PA/AB/IA/781, MRO, Jasper L USA 34-5H, Reunon Bay, t11/10; cum 368K 3/20; remains off line 4/21;
36920, 4,336, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t11/20, cum 271K 4/21; cum 525K 2/23; still F; cum 597K 4/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
2-2021
31619
51547
1-2021
43882
60860
12-2020
66320
82551
11-2020
59583
61263
18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/10; cum 362K 4/21; cum 415K 2/23; cum 434K 4/24;
21630,1,378, MRO, Waltom USA 43-8TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 430K 12/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line 12/20; nice jump in production; cum 443K 4/21; cuum 514K 2/23;
21631,1,463, MRO, Waljen USA 43-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 472K 12/20; off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line 12/20; cum 487K 4/21; cum 549K 2/23;
33945,3,970, MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t10/20; cum 175K 12/20; cum 242K 4/21; cum 387K 2/23;
33946,2,424, MRO, Ranum USA 42-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t9/20; cum 121 1/21; cum 180K 4/21; cum 314K 2/23;
33947,4,632, MRO, Prior USA 42-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 9/20; t10/20; cum 173K 1/20; cum 245K 4/21; cum 373K 2/23;
37395, 4,798, MRO, Wallentinson USA 44-8H, Reunion Bay, huge, see initial production here; t9/20; cum 253K 4/21;
37403, 5,266, MRO, Standfest USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, huge, see initial production here; t10/20; cum 257K 4/21; cum 440K 2/23;
The shutdown comes just months after both countries agreed to resume
production at the Neutral Zone. Total production at the Neutral Zone,
which comprises the offshore Al-Khafji and onshore Wafra fields, was
260,000 b/d in April, with each country sharing output 50-50. Kuwait's
share of the Wafra field was 60,000 b/d at the time and the Al-Khafji
share was about 70,000 b/d, signaling the shut down will remove about
140,000 b/d from the market.
"There are simply no buyers. This is why everybody is volunteering cuts," the source said.
