So Much Work Left To Be Done In The Bakken -- April 3, 2020

Beaver Lodge oil field. Hess multi-well pads of interest.

Beaver Lodge is tracked here but it has not been updated in a long time.

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Frogs

I'm hoping Enerplus develops an Amphibian pad. 

Extant amphibiians (collectively, Lissamphibia):

• frogs
• salamanders
• caecilians

Molecular estimates suggest the Lissamphibia may stretch back farther than the fossil record, as much as 100 million year (Myr) farther back.

Salamanders are the morphologically most generalized of the three extant groups, not having the locomotor specializations of their sister tax frogs (jumping) or caecilians (burrowing).

Of the three, salamandroids may be the oldest, and fossils suggest their appearance may be 40 Myr earlier than previously supposed.

The 40-Myr extension is most exciting. Folks have been looking for estimates of divergence of cryptobranchoids and salamandroids.

From wiki:

The subclass Lissamphibia includes all living amphibians. They are classified in three orders:

• the Anura: frogs, including toads;
• the Caudata or Urodela: salamanders, including newts; and, 
• the Gymnophiona or Apoda: the limbless caecilians. 

Although the ancestry of each group is controversial, all share certain common characteristics, which indicates they evolved from a common ancestor and so form a clade.

lissós: ancient Greek, smooth;
amphibia: ancient Greek, two types of life

I am very, very disappointed that neither frogs nor amphibians are found in the index of Aristotle's The Lagoon, by Armand Marie Leroi, c. 2014, 500 pages.

It's unfortunate that I cannot find any English word that derives from "lissa." Engineers will be familiar with the lissajous curve but that derives from the man who first described these complex harmonic motion curves: Jules Antoine Lissajous. 

The Brothers Gibb -- Stayin' Alive -- April 3, 2020

The wells:

• 24352, 287, CLR, Gibb 1-24H, 30 stages, 3 million lbs, Beaver Lodge, t3/13; cum 142K 10/20;
  
• 37485, conf, CLR, Gibb 2-24HSL1, Beaver Lodge,
• 37486, conf, CLR, Gibb 3-24H, Beaver Lodge,
• 37487, conf, CLR, Gibb 4-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
• 37488, conf, CLR, Gibb 5-24H, Beaver Lodge,
• 37489, conf, CLR, Gibb 6-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
• 37490, conf, CLR, Gibb 7-24H, Beaver Lodge,
• 37491, conf, CLR, Gibb 11-24HSL, Beaver Lodge,
• 37492, conf, CLR, Gibb 10-24H1, Beaver Lodge,
• 37493, conf, CLR, Gibb 9-24H, Beaver Lodge,
• 37494, conf, CLR, Gibb 8-24H1, Beaver Lodge,

Current area:

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Stayin' Alive, Bee Gees

CLR With Four More Gibb Permits -- April 3, 2020

Active rigs -- hope springs eternal -- rig count up by one today --

$28.34	4/3/2020	04/03/2019	04/03/2018	04/03/2017	04/03/2016
Active Rigs	44	62	58	48	29

Five new permits, #37491 - #37495, inclusive --

• Operators: CLR (4); True Oil
• Fields: Beaver Lodge (Williams); North Branch (McKenzie
• Comments:
• CLR hs permits for four more Gibb wells in Beaver Lodge oil field, SESE 24-156-95;
• True Oil has a permit for a Northern State well in North Branch, NWNE 36-148-102

Name change:

• Slawson, #37239, from Orca Federal 9-23-26TFH to Loon Federal 5 SLTFH;

ND Paddlefish Season Canceled -- April 3, 2020

Fears that the paddlefish may carry the coronavirus? Whatever.

Link here.

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Atmospheric CO2 -- February, 2020

Link here.

February, 2019: 411.75.

March, 2020, data should be out early next week. It will be interesting to see the April, 2020, data a month from now after worldwide Wuhan flu lock downs took effect. Could be very, very interesting.

ND Regulators Approve Two Pipelines -- April 3, 2020

Link here.

Two pipelines:

• a CO2 pipeline supporting EOR projects: Denbury
• a NGL pipeline: ONEOK
• both approved unanimously

The NGL pipeline: ONEOK (earlier story here) -- The Tioga Lateral Pipeline

• $100 million project; to be completed by end of 2020 -- this year
• northwest corner of the state
• 75-mile steel pipeline: up to 30,000 b/d
• from three processing plants
• Hess Tioga
• XTO Nesson
• Flatiron Springbrook
• will end by connecting to the northern portion of ONEOK's existing Bakken NGL Pipeline
• ultimately connecting to markets further south, including the Gulf Coast
• ethane, propane, and butane

From an earlier post:

Data points for the Bakken NGL pipeline:

• $500 million
• 600-mile pipeline
• capacity to transport 60,000 bpd of unfractionated NGls from the Williston Basin to the Overland Pass Pipeline in northern Colorado
• first NGL pipeline to transport natural gas from the Williston Basin to facilities in the Mid-Continent and the Texas Gulf Coast
• further plans: another $100 million to install additional pump stations to increase capacity to 135,000 bpd from 60,000 bpd as noted in today's press release; this expansion will be completed in 3Q14

The  other pipeline:

• Denbury: from Montana into North Dakota, through Bowman, Slope counties
• 18-mile pipeline; nine miles inside ND
• ND portion: nine miles; $9.2 million (again, rule of thumb -- $1 million / mile)
• six months to build; several months of testing; dates unknown
• will carry CO2 for EOR
• CO2 will originate from XOM's Shute Creek Gas Plant and COP's Lost Cabin Gas Plant in Wyoming; via several pipelines to Fallon County in southeastern MT; from there via this new Denbury pipeline
• to boost oil production from depleted wells in the Cedar Creek Anticline Area
• second CO2 pipeline in ND; first was the 1998 Basin Electric's Great Plains Synfuels Plant near Beulah to oil fields in Saskatchewan

The Bakken Simply Never Quits -- Here's Another One -- MRO's Howard USA In Reunion Bay -- April 3, 2020

This huge well just went off line -- we'll follow it for awhile to see what's going on -- I assume it came off line due to all the neighboring activity and will soon be back on line.

The well:

• 18514, 672, MRO, Howard USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, t6/10; cum 565K 1/20; offline as of 1/20;

Recent production which shows a nice "halo" effect. Nine thousand bbls over 14 days extrapolates to 19,000 bbls for 30 days:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	0	0	17	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	7	520	546	189	833	729	69
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	2852	2872	1289	4068	3712	171
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	3310	3303	1362	3904	3108	583
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	3749	3747	1207	3769	3526	13
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	4219	4211	1162	2795	2463	83
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	4520	4510	839	3116	2473	377
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	4452	4454	2387	4161	3855	41
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	5177	5175	3374	4646	4173	168
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	6914	6947	5510	5600	5089	110
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	7947	7897	8218	5888	5353	73
BAKKEN	3-2019	11	2366	2442	2741	427	295	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	14	9012	8957	3785	8622	0	8079
BAKKEN	1-2019	6	1337	1297	4832	1309	0	1224
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	14	1127	1702	288	1385	606	638
BAKKEN	9-2018	28	2271	2321	455	2689	2355	36
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	2564	2392	554	3071	2472	263
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	2619	2604	524	3030	1915	776
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	2529	2587	498	2881	2389	164

And if  you want to see production from the very beginning, we have that, too.

MRO Reporting Some Huge DUCs -- April 3, 2020

I don't think I've reported this one. A huge well, still a DUC.

• 36338, SI/NC, MRO, Julia Horn USA 11-2TFH, 33-061-04458, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 113K in three months; Three Forks first bench; fracked 10/27/19 - 11/7/19; 8.4 million gallons of water (a moderate frack); 89.4% water by mas;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	27567	27566	32739	29357	26939	523
BAKKEN	1-2020	29	26038	25994	30935	24531	22382	371
BAKKEN	12-2019	30	45764	45753	55732	54635	5406	46122
BAKKEN	11-2019	6	13273	13102	17882	14375	0	13475

Other wells on this pad:

• 18243, 646, MRO, Gladys USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t1/10; cum 390K 1/20; off line for past eight months; now back on line; huge jump in production;
• 36499, SI/NC, MRO, Allen Horn USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, huge well: t--: cum 151K in three months;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	37614	37754	19034	39661	36425	652
BAKKEN	1-2020	29	51883	51678	31108	50899	46675	669
BAKKEN	12-2019	29	61391	61147	40036	46888	4945	37851
BAKKEN	11-2019	2	0	0	220	0	0	0

• 36339, SI/NC, MRO, Lottio Horn USA 21-2TFH, Reunion Bay, very nice well: t--: cum 130K in three months;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	35446	35467	35486	37954	34930	584
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	36081	35913	35898	36320	33122	724
BAKKEN	12-2019	30	36631	36769	41613	28824	2981	23401
BAKKEN	11-2019	11	21924	21641	41268	15282	0	13826

• 36340, SI/NC, MRO, Horn USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, another huge well; t--: cum 138K in three months;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	34721	34615	21982	39634	36494	740
BAKKEN	1-2020	20	20734	20784	18017	18522	16741	370
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	57836	57931	52516	44541	5086	35587
BAKKEN	11-2019	13	25207	24882	32103	28725	0	27009

Two wells to the immediate east:

• 23209, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 301K 11/19; off line since 2/19;
• 21466, 2,448, MRO, William USA 31-2H, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 482K 2/20; off line for only two months; no halo effect;

Whiting Starting To Report The Ogden Wells In The Sanish -- Remain Confidential -- April 3, 2020

The graphics:

The wells:

• 36388, conf, Whiting, Ogden 11-3HU, Alger:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2020	23344	0
1-2020	9588	0

• 36391, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3-3H, 33-061-04477, Sanish, fracked 11/24/19 - 12/3/19; 8.2 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 88.43% water by mass:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2020	22746	0
1-2020	2999	0

• 36389, conf, Whiting, Ogden 12-3XH, 33-061-04475, Sanish; fracked 11/24/19 - 12/2/19; 8.1 million gallons of water (moderate frack); 88.41% water by mass:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2020	18106	0

The older neighboring wells are all off line.

ND Rig Count Holds Steady At 43 -- April 3, 2020

Employment situation: posted, 7:30 a.m. CT. A quick look at the numbers suggest things were not as bad in March as forecast, or maybe they were. Absolutely impossible to predict how talking heads with interpret these numbers. April is going to be a humdinger.

Average workweek: 34.2 hours -- remains just below the ObamaCare mandate of 35 hours. I think that number is the most fascinating. History, link here.

Social distancing: I didn't read the story, I'm not interested. But over on twitter someone suggested that President Trump will mandate "social distancing" between rigs to minimize spread of coronavirus. That may be a problem in the Permian -- too many rigs too close together -- but in the Bakken, all rigs are at least six feet apart, the current recommendation from the CDC for "social distancing." In the Bakken, the closest two active rigs come together is 50 feet from each other on pad drilling.

Cartels and the Texas Railroad Commission: this is quite fascinating to watch. Will the TRRC become an ex officio member of OPEC? Will OPEC+ become OPEC++? I thought President Trump and the American public wanted lower gasoline prices. That reminds me, where did I put my copy of Alice in Wonderland?

Which reminds me: the best literary find last year -- The Annotated Wuthering Heights.

Iraq: exported more oil in March, 2020, than February, 2020, but revenues halved. The link is at Barron's; not sure why it isn't behind a paywall. 

Gas buddy:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$26.59	4/3/2020	04/03/2019	04/03/2018	04/03/2017	04/03/2016
Active Rigs	43	62	58	48	29

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

RBN Energy: crude crisis squeezes export terminals.

Just a few months ago, crude oil producers and marketers were wondering whether there would be enough marine terminal capacity along the Gulf Coast to handle the steadily increasing volumes of crude that would need to be exported over the next few years. Now, with WTI prices hovering around $25/bbl and producers slashing their 2020 drilling plans, expectations of rising U.S. production and exports are out the window. Instead, what may be shaping up is a fierce competition among the owners of existing storage facilities and loading docks to offer the most efficient, lowest-cost access to the water. Today, we continue our series with a look at two large Houston-area facilities: the Houston Fuel Oil Terminal and Seabrook Logistics Marine Terminal.

This is the second episode in our series. Earlier, we said that the volumes of mostly light, sweet crude from the Permian and other U.S. shale plays being shipped overseas have taken off since the ban on most exports of U.S. crude was lifted in late 2015 — from ~600 Mb/d in 2016 to ~2.7 MMb/d in 2019, and ~2.9 MMb/d in the first two and a half months of 2020.

We also referred back to an blog last summer, where we discussed our estimate that, as of mid-2019, crude oil export capacity along the Gulf Coast stood at about 5 MMb/d — enough to meet current needs but well short of what would be needed if export volumes kept rising. Finally, we began our review of marine terminals along the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a look at the Seaway Freeport and Seaway Texas City facilities, both part of the broader Seaway Crude Pipeline (SCP) system, which is jointly owned by Enterprise Products Partners and Enbridge. We estimated Seaway Freeport’s export capacity at 200 Mb/d and Seaway Texas City’s at 300 Mb/d. Today, we turn our attention to two other large marine terminals in the Houston region.