The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 03/03/20

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Slawson With Six New Permits; Kraken Reporting Three Huge DUCs -- March 3, 2020

Active rigs:

$47.00	3/3/2020	03/03/2019	03/03/2018	03/03/2017	03/03/2016
Active Rigs	50	67	59	45	35

Six new permits today, #37422 - #37427, inclusive:

Operator: Slawson
Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)

Comments:
Slawson has permits for a six-well Tempest Federal / Orca Federal pad in Big Bend, NWNE section 23-152-92.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

36695, A/SI, Kraken, Redfield South 36-35 5H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum 18K in 15 days, extrapolates to 36K in a 30-day month;
36646, A/drl, Kraken, Redfield South 36-35 4H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum 27K in 23 days; extrapolates to 35K in 30 days;
36645, A/SI, Kraken, Redfield South 36-35 3H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum 24K in 23 days;
35602, A/SI, XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32D, Siverston, t--; cum 2K over 8 days;

Grandfather For The Fifth Time -- March 3, 2020

Yesterday I had three granddaughters.

Today, I'm a grandfather for the fifth time.

"MatthewMark" Moberg in the top photo. Note the "A" on the beanie.

"LukeandJohn" Moberg in the bottom photo. Note the "B" on the beanie.

Whatever their "real" names that's how I will always remember them. LOL.

Apparently their mother is doing well, but no one has mentioned Laura in the past thirty minutes. No wonder moms suffer post-partum depression.

I assume their father took these pictures with his iPhone 11.

No statistics provided yet, but based on the photos:

Baby A: 6# 2 oz [Actual: 6# 9 oz]
Baby B: 5# 14 oz [Actual: 5# 15 oz]

38 weeks gestation.

Elective c-section scheduled for today; scheduled some time ago due to both twins being breech. By time of delivery, one remained breech.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- March 3, 2020

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

The Apple page: I've talked about this a couple of times, but I'm talking about it again.

The Apple Pencil is incredible. Sure, Sophia uses it all the time for drawing / sketching / painting, but I'm finding it is incredibly useful when surfing the net. Pinpoint accuracy compared to fat fingers. And it never needs charging! Of course, it needs charging but because it charges when "touching" the iPad, it stays at 100% all the time when it's being used. Whatever it cost when I bought it a year ago, it was really, really well worth it. The iPad -- I really don't use it that much -- Sophia likes it better than the laptop. I love how she sorts out the differences between tablets, laptops, and smartphones. Pretty amazing.

Development in the DFW (north Texas) area: everywhere I drive, if there is an open field, from one-quarter acre to ten acres, it's being developed. It is truly incredible. I'm sure the "macroeconomic numbers" suggest the Texas economy has gone over the cliff due to the oil sector, but I'm not seeing it here. By the way EOG, increased its dividend, and it was not trivial.

SRE: was paying $3.87/year. Raised its quarterly dividend to $1.05 -- $4.20. At least I think that's what I saw. I won't recheck. I'm not looking at the market until the coronavirus hysteria dies down. If I'm wrong on the dividend, let me know. As noted, I'm not going to re-check. $4.20 - $3.87 = 8.5% increase.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Still investing: I won't look at the market, but that doesn't mean I'm not investing. I went to my on-line brokerage account to see how much cash had accumulated, and I bought another 100 shares of a company in which I'm building a position. I stay fully invested. That particular stock is not in the energy sector; it has fallen about 16% since the beginning of the coronavirus hysteria. I'll never be able to buy it this cheap again.

McDonald's: due to a different driving route, I'm at a different McDonald's today. The customer service is incredible. Twice in the 15 minutes I have been here, a different employee has come by to see if I need a refill (coffee refills are free, unlike Starbucks). I am convinced the real "Lola" served me. Wonderful, wonderful person. She/he may be the assistant manager, or the manager for all I know. This particular restaurant is pretty much all African-American and I'm in my wonderful, wonderful Grapevine, TX, home.

Politics:

Both Biden and Bernie need to put an African-American woman on the ticket, or announce several high Cabinet positions to be headed by African-American women.
this is like chess, where each piece is given a numerical value:

king (president): 100 points -- although technically, priceless
queen (vice-president): 50 points (maybe 75 points in this case)
bishop: Secretary of State: 25 points
bishop: Secretary of the Treasury: 25 points (it's really not worth that much but "treasury" sounds important);
knight: Secretary of HHS: 25 points (worth even more than SecState in the "real world")
knight): Secretary of Defense: 10 points (very, very important, but no one cares)
rook (castle): Secretary of Labor: 25 - 50 points (importance dependent upon the person holding that position; everyone remembers Robert Reich; no one can name the current SecLabor)
rook (castle): Secretary of Veteran Affairs: 10 points (very, very important, but again, seldom seen, heard)

Pawns: eight other cabinet positions, each worth 5 points.

Now that we have the points:

Susan Rice (50 points)
that woman from Georgia who thinks she is already president (10 points)
Kamala Harris (25 points)
Elizabeth Warren (technically and biologically she's not African-American but by November, 2020, she will be; she will suggest that some body part suggests she has some African blood and/or she has an innate preference for urban rap (music) (10 points)
Colleen McMahon: chief judge of the Southern District Court of New York (75 points)
any member of "the squad" (0 points; but will become tsars; advisors)
Donna Brazile (50 points)
Barbara Jordan, Texas: Biden's first choice and then will be reminded Ms Jordan is unavailable (75 points until Biden gets the memo)
Eddie Bernice Johnson, Texas (50 points)
Carol Mosely Braun (50 points): actually younger than both Biden and Bernie
Michelle Obama (100 points)

NDIC Daily Report From Yesterday, Posted; Speaking Of Dividends; Nothing Else To Talk About; Quiet Tuesday; No Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 3, 2020

Market: as noted earlier, I am not following the market. I have not checked in for over a week now. I do however look at dividend announcements. I may have missed some but here are two biggies:

EOG announced an increase in its dividend, and it was not trivial;
SRE announced an increase in its dividend;

EOG, link here, go to February 27, 2020, announced, 38 cents/share; also here;

EOG Resources pays an annual dividend of $1.15 per share, with a dividend yield of 1.83%. EOG's next quarterly dividend payment will be made to shareholders of record on Thursday, April 30. The company has grown its dividend for the last 2 consecutive years and is increasing its dividend by an average of 19.73% each year. EOG Resources pays out 23.09% of its earnings out as a dividend.

SRE, link here, go to February 25, 2020, announced, $1.05/share:

Sempra Energy pays an annual dividend of $3.87 per share, with a dividend yield of 2.72%. SRE's next quarterly dividend payment will be made to shareholders of record on Wednesday, April 15. The company has grown its dividend for the last 9 consecutive years and is increasing its dividend by an average of 5.56% each year. Sempra Energy pays out 57.08% of its earnings out as a dividend.

AMGN: link here, increased quarterly dividend by 10.3%, from $1.45 to $1.60, Feb/Mar 2020;

Amgen pays an annual dividend of $6.40 per share, with a dividend yield of 3.13%. AMGN's next quarterly dividend payment will be made to shareholders of record on Friday, March 6. The company has grown its dividend for the last 9 consecutive years and is increasing its dividend by an average of 11.64% each year. Amgen pays out 43.18% of its earnings out as a dividend.

Others:

Concho Resources: link here; hikes quarterly dividend 60% to 20 cents / share
FLS, announces an increase in its dividend to 20 cents/share.
SUNCOR: a 10.7% increase;
UPS: an increase of 5.2%
Wisdom Tree, a number of "funds": an increase of 800%; 172%; 216%, 267:, etc.
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF: up 480%
UNP, BAX: unchanged;

Most interesting: I did not see any companies of note/importance (to me) cutting dividends. Of course, my blinders were on. LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$47.70	3/3/2020	03/03/2019	03/03/2018	03/03/2017	03/03/2016
Active Rigs	52	67	59	45	35

No wells coming off the confidential list today.

Daily activity report, yesterday, March 2, 2020:

Four new permits, #37417 - #37421, inclusive:

Operator: Petro-Hunt
Field: Burke
Comments:

Petro-Hunt has permits for a 5-well Blikre/Powell pas in SESW section 31-159-93, East Tioga oil field;

Four permits renewed:

Lime Rock: a Harlan Rebsom permit, a State Dvorak permit, both permits in Dunn County
EOG: a Hardscrabble permit in Williams County
Whiting: a Bartleson permit in Mountrail County

Five permits canceled:

QEP: five MHA permits, four in Dunn County; one in Mountrail County

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Backyard Patio

Juvenile cardinal:

One can see a red flash on the developing crest, as well as a red flash on the left wing. Up until a few days ago, the parents were arriving first, and the baby would arrive shortly thereafter. For the past two days, the baby has been arriving first, and the parents not showing up at all (at least while I'm there to see them in the morning). That suggests to me the parents are focusing on their second clutch of the season.

Coronavirus Has a Silver Lining -- March 3, 2020

Updates

March 13, 2020: was President Trump right about the CDC? Apparently The New York Times agrees with Trump on this one.

Updates -- Evening Updates

Politics:

Super Tuesday polls closing soon. It looks like Colorado, Texas, and California will be the states to watch. The others were just fluff.
the caucuses are for the birds. Virginia: it's barely 8:00 p.m. ET and already 93% of the votes are counted. If the DNC doesn't end the Iowa and Nevada circuses, the party is nuts.
Pocahontas might take third in her home state. If so, she's toast.
Biden handing off gun control to "hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns" - Beto O-Rourke -- dumbest move this election season yet.
where Bloomberg started: Virginia -- and he is doing so poorly, unlikely to get any delegates; best news: money can't buy you a presidential nomination; money might buy you a presidential pardon, but not a nomination;
Dems call for Mike Bloomberg to drop out of race: this is the worst showing by any candidate ever considering the amount of money spent, closing in on $1 billion with almost nothing to show for it; still delusional, saying he could win at a brokered convention.

Economy:

so why did the Dow drop 800 points today? Six words in the same sentence -- "the Fed calls an emergency meeting."
so why did the Dow drop 800 points today? The Fed makes an emergency cut that is as big as any Fed cut recently.

Fox News: there is no reason to have Donna Brazile on their network as part of the panel. Period. Dot.

Flip-flop. I'm flip flopping.

I'm getting tired of Bernie Sanders and his supporters (and others) complaining that the Democrat Party may "steal" the election from Bernie. Heeeeyyy......Bernie -- Bernie isn't even a Democrat. He is a self-described independent and not a Democrat. He should have run as an independent, in the first place, and especially if he thought the Democrat Party might turn on him. I hope the Democrat Party does stop Bernie. He's not a democrat. He's a socialist. He's a communist.

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Corona Virus Update

Final update for March 3, 2020. Four most important data points:

growth factor: turns up again, but not by much; just disappointing;
total deaths, change in total, d/d: 3% -- it had been 2% for the past week (and 1% on February 26
daily deaths, daily change, d/d: an increase of 27% after being a minus 8 percent yesterday;
US: total increases; more deaths but all in Washington state
country highlight:

Italy: still a disaster.

Iran: still a disaster.

Empties prisons in desperate bid to stop coronavirus.

Coronovirus Update, 11:19, yup, there it is, as expected, 27 new deaths reported in Italy; even more than Iran's eleven new deaths.

Italy: 79 / 2,502 = 3.2% fatality rate
Iran: 77 / 2,336 = 3.3% fatality rate which suggests total cases much higher than being reported

Italy: almost all new cases in the EU can be traced back to Italy, and most of them had to do with skiing. Anyone ever been on a tram taking skiers to the top of the mountain? We have. Much, much much more crowded than the New York subway. And I've been on the NY subways also.)

This is an incredible interview:

Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:

"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed.

The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]

People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]

China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.

Panic and hysteria are not appropriate. This is a disease that is in the cases and their close contacts. It’s not a hidden enemy lurking behind bushes. Get organized, get educated, and get working."

Bottom line:

quarantines work
fast and draconian quarantines imperative
test kits critical for make quarantines effective
the CDC restricted test kits to their own lab; it took Trump to get that turned around; first out of the stable -- state of Nebraska has in-state test kits that provide answers within six hours vs 24 - 48 hours for results from CDC;
"defunding" CDC had nothing to do with their slowness to respond; it had to do with their long-term regulations that have only gotten worse in the Deep State mentality;
CDC is a government regulating bureaucracy;
and, yes, I'm politicizing this; trying to set the record straight. My comments will likely become more harsh.
I experienced the same problem when I was practicing medicine in the United States.

Rolling Stone supports Trump on the coronavirus story. Now, why would Rolling Stone support Trump on this issue. Rolling Stone knows that panic/hysteria will shut down concerts, and shutting down concerts will "kill" artists, and eventually affect Rolling Stone's bottom line.

Updates

Later, 10:28 a.m. Central Time: coronavirus update --

it's still early in the day, but right now, things look pretty good:

France: reporting a new death; brings French total to four deaths out of 204 cases (2% fatality rate)
China: well below 50 new deaths; 33 new deaths; new cases -- and this is remarkable: only 126 new cases.
South Korea: still reeling; 851 new cases; but only 6 new deaths. 34 / 5,186 = 0.7% fatality rate.
Iran: a whopping 835 new cases; parliament infected; we're starting to see reason for their outbreak; 77 total deaths with eleven new deaths; 77 / 2,336 = 3.3% fatality rate. And the rate has to be a lot less; deaths are pretty easy to count; cases are way under-reported.
Italy: this is of most interest. Right now -- but it will change by end of the day -- zero new cases; no new deaths. 52 / 2,036 = 2.6% fatality rate.
US: three new cases; now at 103 total cases; no new deaths. 6 / 103 = almost a 6% fatality rate. Interesting, huh?

Original Post

Coronavirus, general:

Disease is bad, but coronavirus has some positive aspects. It has exposed the CDC for what it is: a government regulatory bureaucracy, slow to react. Chris Hayes, MSNBC, stumbled upon the problem but did not follow up. He would have been nominated for a Grammy had he followed up on this.
Speaking of the CDC, the governor of Texas is furious with how the CDC has fouled up testing.
The numbers during the day, yesterday, March 3, 2020, looked really grim, but when the final numbers were posted, the percentages and the trends looked really good.

Coronavirus debacle, CDC-style:

I saw this when I was practicing medicine and was considering certain diagnoses

certain test kits were only available at the CDC; one had to send specimens to the CDC (hopefully not lost in transit, and hopefully "survived" the postal system especially if they needed to be kept frozen);

it was a minimum of a 48-hour turnaround time

so, back to coronavirus;

it is clear that the best way to handle this, as one would handle any infectious disease outbreak: quarantine, fast and draconian;

the only way to make the quarantine work: fast, and accurate diagnoses

the best way for fast and accurate diagnoses: test kits

CDC: 48-hour turnaround; then the CDC, under duress, agreed to release kits to states;

it turns out that CDC could not meet demand

and, then it turns out that states like Nebraska had a test kit that would give results in 6 hours but not allowed to be used due to CDC regulations

Trump got that fixed -- immediately -- mainstream media won't report this

Coronavirus hot spots:

China: leveling off a bit? One can only hope. Only 126 new cases; 33 new deaths. I use "50" as the threshold.
South Korea: oh my goodness -- 851 new cases; no new deaths, surprising
Iran: 835 new cases;
Italy: reports no new cases but the day is early; interestingly, it is earlier in the day in Iran than it is in Italy, so we'll see;

Corona politics:

it appears the disease continues to be politicized, hard to say whether Americans reacting; best gauge: whether the theme parks stay open; apparently Disney is still open in Japan; speaks volumes;
key data point Americans may react to: number of new deaths; not new numbers unless really excessive; "good news," I suppose that one could say all deaths in the US were in Washington state;