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Sunday, March 1, 2020

Coronavirus -- Update -- March 1, 2020

We are starting to see the research. This is absolutely fascinating. I'm impressed how fast some of this is being researched, vetted (peer-reviewed), published, and made available to the general public.

The New England Journal, "Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China," dated February 28, 2019, posted on the internet yesterday, February 29, 2019. Link here.

Background:
  • total number of patients studied: 1,099; laboratory-confirmed Covid-19
  • 522 hospitals in 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China through January 29, 2020
  • originally published in Chinese and then translated; authors: four Chinese for the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19;
Data points in the one-paragraph results section that caught my eye (numbers rounded)
  • only 1.9% (and that's how they phrased it, "only") of the patients had a history of direct contact with wildlife;
  • among non-residents of Wuhan, 70% had contact with residents of Wuhan, including 30% who had visited the city;
  • most common symptoms: fever and cough; but fever was seen in less than half of those patients at time of admission (or just prior to admission);
  • diarrhea: uncommon
  • median incubation period: 4 days;
  • chest x-rays: "pretty much" diagnostic if present
  • a decrease in lymphocytes was present in 80% of patients on admission to hospital
  • patients often presented without fever and many did not have abnormal radiologic findings
Comments:
  • this is why this is called severe acute respiratory disease
  • one does not generally get admitted to a hospital unless the condition is severe or contagious illness suspected;
  • the chest x-ray findings/changes generally lag clinical presentation (true in almost any respiratory disease)
  • so these patients were showing signs of fever and cough, but not necessarily severe respiratory distress; and x-rays were still clear;
Miscellaneous notes, other comments by the authors, in "dicussion:
  • our study cannot preclude the presence of patients who have been termed "super-spreaders"
  • despite the number of deaths associated with Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 appears to have a lower case fatality rate than either SARS-CoV or Middle East respiratory-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV)
  • fever and cough were the dominant symptoms [but] gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, which suggests a difference in viral tropism as compared with SARS-CoV [the "original SARS"], MERS-CoV, and seasonal influenza
  • the absence of fever in Covid-19 is more frequent than in SARS-CoV (1%) and MERS-CoV infection (2%), so afebrile patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focuses on fever detection;
Finally, death rate, comments by the authors:
  • Our findings were more similar to the national official statistics, which showed a rate of death of 3.2% among 51,857 cases of Covid-19 as of February 16, 2020.
  • Since patients who were mildly ill and who did not seek medical attention were not included in our study, the case fatality rate in a real-world scenario might be even lower.
  • Early isolation, early diagnosis, and early management might have collectively contributed to the reduction in mortality in Guangdong.

CLR's February, 2020, Presentation Posted

Link here.

Slide 11, average well performance; production first 12 months:
  • 2017, 133 wells: approaching 250,000 boe
  • 2018, 160 wells: approaching 280,000 boe
  • 2019, 172 wells: approaching 280,000 boe
  • 2020E, 175 wells: approaching 280,000 boe
**************************************
Key California Reservoir To Be Drained
Earthquake Risk

This was published a few days ago. I thought I had posted it but cannot find it.

From The Mercury News:
In a dramatic decision that could significantly impact Silicon Valley’s water supply, federal dam regulators have ordered Anderson Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Santa Clara County, to be completely drained starting October 1, 2020.

The 240-foot earthen dam, built in 1950 and located east of Highway 101 between Morgan Hill and San Jose, poses too great of a risk of collapse during a major earthquake, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which regulates dams, has concluded.
“It is unacceptable to maintain the reservoir at an elevation higher than necessary when it can be reduced, thereby decreasing the risk to public safety and the large population downstream of Anderson Dam,” wrote David Capka, director of FERC’s Division of Dam Safety and Inspections, in a letter to the Santa Clara Valley Water District on Thursday.
Anderson Reservoir is owned by the Santa Clara Valley Water District, a government agency based in San Jose. When full, it holds 89,278 acre feet of water — more than all other nine dams operated by the Santa Clara Valley Water District combined.
FERC's parent agency: the US Department of Energy. SecEnergy, former Texas governor, Rick Perry, March 2, 2017 - December 1, 2019. Dan Brouillette is the incumbent and was the deputy to Mr Perry.

A Closer Look At The Enerplus Turtle Pad -- March 1, 2020

These wells are coming off the confidential list this next week

The wells:
  • 35064, conf, Enerplus, Hawksbill 152-94-33D-28H, 33-053-08588, Antelope, 7/11/19 - 8/22/19; 13 million gallons of water, 88.5% water by mass:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20191244211596
11-20192691132332
10-20195185738521
9-2019223167912
  • 35063, conf, Enerplus, Tortoise 152-94-33C-28H-TF1, 33-053-08587, Antelope, 7/10/19 - 7/22/19; 11 million gallons of water, 90% water by mass:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193126829141
11-20192490229917
10-20194264731680
9-20193492912384
  • 35068, conf, Enerplus, Terrapin 152-94-33D-28H, 33-053-08592, Antelope, 8/14/19 - 9/12/19; 20 million gallons of water; 89% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193571233283
11-20193128037579
10-20194455333096
9-2019268439517
  • 35067, conf, Enerplus, Box 152-94-33D-28H-TF2, 33-053-08591, Antelope, 8/14/19 - 8/31/19; 12.6 million gallons of water; 87.6% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193342931156
11-20193094537178
10-20193240524072
9-2019210877476
  • 35066, conf, Enerplus, Painted 152-94-33D-28H, 33-053-08590, Antelope, 7/25/19 - 8/11/19; 16 million gallons of water; 87.8% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193945736773
11-20193736544889
10-20194487133332
9-20193266611582

The graphic:




The "map" turtle, link here:


A Closer Look At The Four EOG Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- March 1, 2020

The wells:
  • 36416, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, 33-053-09061, Clarks Creek, 7/20/19 - 8/22/19, 11.5 million gallons of water, 83% water by mass,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193083942916
11-20193973792288
10-20197161196448
9-20196695187763

  • 36415, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, 33-053-09060, Clarks Creek, no frack data over at FracFocus, though frack data is available for the other two wells; wouldn't it be a hoot if this well was not fracked? LOL.
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193812178940
11-20194855579616
10-20198346493516
9-201986854104174

  • 36413, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 106-0724H, 33-053-09058, Clarks Creek, 7/25/19 - 8/23/19; 11.4 million gallons of water, 81% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-201960322172190
11-201973804122169
10-20197585589623
9-20195183268307

 These three EOG Clarks Creek wells:


  • 23958, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H, 33-061-02281, Parshall, 7/7/19 - 8/5/19; 12.5 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20192719114970
11-20193534617412
10-20193918024625
9-20195415937865


Fake Memes -- Parent-Daughter Wells In The Bakken -- March 1, 2020

While we are waiting for Sophia to load the API numbers for the EOG wells coming off the confidential list this week, check out CLR's 2/26/2020 presentation

There's a meme out there that in the shale fields, daughter cells are significantly -- and the meme says "significantly" -- worse than the parent wells. That meme apparently is not about the Bakken. Maybe the Permian, but not the Bakken.

I do believe that the wells that are reporting initial production data this week, are all daughter wells. If these daughter wells produced significantly worse than their parent wells, I want to see those parent wells. LOL.

These are huge wells.

We'll get into them individually.

Some comments:
  • Enerplus doesn't report often, but when it does, Enerplus reports some huge wells. This week, Enerplus reports its "turtle pad."
  • EOG hasn't lost its touch. Look at its new wells in Clarks Creek. OMG!
  • The Oasis Banks wells are coming in relatively good, but they are a mixed bag, and for Oasis/Banks, I expected a bit better, but again, IPs are not the end-all and be-all. 
  • For the EOG wells, I can hardly wait to see the frack data, but we will get an early look when we check FracFocus. Stay tuned.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 1, 2020

36027, conf, MRO, Pletan 11-13TFH, Bailey,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2019187737418
11-2019252629220
10-2019269874092
9-2019232050

36026, conf, MRO, Herbert 41-14H, Bailey,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2019201077816
11-2019263669299
10-2019306694430
9-2019390290

35821, conf, MRO, Bryden 11-13H, Bailey,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2019266979216
11-20193126710494
10-2019351994897
9-2019171870

35820, conf, MRO, Maher 41-14TFH, Bailey,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2019211169450
11-2019289059936
10-2019333024828
9-2019404000

36416, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, 33-053-09061, Clarks Creek, 7/20/19 - 8/22/19, 11.5 million gallons of water, 83% water by mass,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193083942916
11-20193973792288
10-20197161196448
9-20196695187763

36415, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, 33-053-09060, Clarks Creek,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193812178940
11-20194855579616
10-20198346493516
9-201986854104174

36413, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 106-0724H, 33-053-09058, Clarks Creek, 7/25/19 - 8/23/19; 11.4 million gallons of water, 81% water by mass;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-201960322172190
11-201973804122169
10-20197585589623
9-20195183268307

35100, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 8T, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20191807341944
11-20191819742075
10-20192358946564
9-201929185832

23958, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H, 33-061-02281, Parshall, 7/7/19 - 8/5/19; 12.5 million gallons of water; 82% water by mass;

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20192719114970
11-20193534617412
10-20193918024625
9-20195415937865

35064, conf, Enerplus, Hawksbill 152-94-33D-28H, Antelope,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20191244211596
11-20192691132332
10-20195185738521
9-2019223167912

35063, conf, Enerplus, Tortoise 152-94-33C-28H-TF1, Antelope,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193126829141
11-20192490229917
10-20194264731680
9-20193492912384

35099, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 7B, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193287189768
11-20193426589084
10-20193676889573
9-2019435416562

35068, conf, Enerplus, Terrapin 152-94-33D-28H, Antelope,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193571233283
11-20193128037579
10-20194455333096
9-2019268439517

35067, conf, Enerplus, Box 152-94-33D-28H-TF2, Antelope,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193342931156
11-20193094537178
10-20193240524072
9-2019210877476

35066, conf, Enerplus, Painted 152-94-33D-28H, Antelope,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193945736773
11-20193736544889
10-20194487133332
9-20193266611582

35251, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 13BX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20193172580703
11-20193747270425
10-20193188966359
9-201928526856

32461, drl, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H, Little Knife, no production data,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- March 1, 2020

Monday, March 9, 2020: 16 for the month; 187 for the quarter, 187 for the year:
36027, conf, MRO, Pletan 11-13TFH
36026, conf, MRO, Herbert 41-14H, 
35821, conf, MRO, Bryden 11-13H, 
35820, conf, MRO, Maher 41-14TFH,

Sunday, March 8, 2020: 12 for the month; 183 for the quarter, 183 for the year:
None.

Saturday, March 7, 2020: 12 for the month; 183 for the quarter, 183 for the year:
36416, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, 
36415, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, 
36413, conf, EOG, Clarks Creek 106-0724H,
[36414 is still on loc status]

Friday, March 6, 2020: 9 for the month; 180 for the quarter, 180 for the year:
35100, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 8T,
35958, conf, EOG, Liberty LR 107-1109H, 

Thursday, March 5, 2020: 7 for the month; 178 for the quarter, 178 for the year:
35064, conf, Enerplus, Hawksbill 152-94-33D-28H,
35063, conf, Enerplus, Tortoise 152-94-33C-28H-TF1

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: 5 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 176 for the year:
35099, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 7B, 
35068, conf, Enerplus, Terrapin 152-94-33D-28H, 
35067, conf, Enerplus, Box 152-94-33D-28H-TF2
35066, conf, Enerplus, Painted 152-94-33D-28H, 

Tuesday, March 3, 2020: 1 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year:
None.

Monday, March 2, 2020: 1 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year:
None.

Sunday, March 1, 2020: 1 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year:
35251, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 13BX,

Saturday, February 29, 2020: 64 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 171 for the year:
32461, conf, Sinclair Oil, Crosby Creek 4-5H,


Friday, February 28, 2020: 63 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 170 for the year:
  • 35252, 236, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 44-19 12T, Banks, t9/19; cum 57K 9/19;

It's A New Day -- March 1, 2020

I'm not a gamblin' man but if I were, I would lay down a 1,024 - 1 bet that somewhere in South Carolina, someone on Joe Biden's staff is playing this song:

Feeling Good, Nina Simone

Sunday Morning Coming Down -- March 1, 2020

The week in pictures: link here


Steyer bails. If you want to see what an opportunist sounds like, listen to the first 90 seconds of his speech announcing he is quitting.

South Carolina: even MSNBC didn't see this coming. Joe Biden won every county in the Palmetto state. Every county. 

China: late yesterday I said that President Xi has three months to get this under control. Within three months we start seeing widespread social unrest if that country drops into depression. Now I see Tyler Durden has said the same thing. At this link:
Beijing now only has about 3 months before its companies run out of cash and the economy implodes from mass defaults and bank failures unless the economic situation is stabilized.
Koontz: 1981 novel. Global pandemic, virus he called "Wuhan-400." Eyes of Darkness. From the book:
“In around 2020 a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments.”
Trump wins again: appellate court says US House lacks "standing" to force "McGahn subpoena." Convoluted ruling, but a ruling none the less.