For newbies: this is why I often say that there is so much work yet to be done in the Bakken. All the early wells need to be re-fracked or re-drilled/re-fracked using "modern" completion (fracking) strategies.
Here's a great example.
These two wells were permitted about the same time, back in 2014.
The first one, #28648, was drilled/completed in early 2015, using "old" completion (fracking) strategies. The second one, #28194, was only recently drilled/fracked, using new completion strategies. Note the huge difference in the first five months of production.
The wells:
28648, 1,234, Oasis, Chalmers 53-- 21-19 9B, 36 stages; 3.8 million lbs; Baker, t5/15; cum 173K 12/19; first five months of production:
BAKKEN
9-2015
29
9841
9774
12231
6653
703
5950
BAKKEN
8-2015
13
3052
3074
12975
424
0
424
BAKKEN
7-2015
21
3909
4207
5446
548
55
493
BAKKEN
6-2015
30
21290
21205
43491
17994
17366
628
BAKKEN
5-2015
14
12338
12049
12021
8973
8973
0
28194, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 21-31 5B; this permit was issued about the same time as the permit for #28648 above. That well above was drilled/completed in early 2015; this well (#28194) was only recently drilled and completed (late 2019, four and a half years later):
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
12-2019
24993
18155
11-2019
18652
16465
10-2019
27835
22607
9-2019
26786
22938
8-2019
11995
10266
Yes, we don't the number of days the second well was producing (mostly likely full months starting in September), but mineral owners don't really care about details like that. Most mineral owners are only interested in the size of the check.
This is over at The Atlantic, how Joe Biden blew it. It's behind a paywall, but most folks get three or four free articles each month before the paywall kicks in.
If you enjoy this sort of stuff, it's worth a read.
I normally wouldn't post it / link it but it gives me an opportunity to expand on a couple of items that I've wanted to talk about for quite some time. First: money. From the article:
Running short on money is a big part of why [Biden] ended up here [in last place among the real contenders] ...
After
a disastrous summer of fundraising, plans from the team in Iowa and
other states would linger with national headquarters for weeks, then
come back without approval for the spending being requested. Other
candidates were quickly hiring staff—particularly Buttigieg, who in June
had all of four staffers in the state but went into the caucuses with
170—while Biden’s team was under an almost complete hiring freeze.
The
campaign yanked its TV ads, leaving Biden dark for weeks and
exponentially outspent in online advertising by Warren and Buttigieg,
who soon had the rising poll numbers to show for it. At one point, aides
realized, Biden was on track to spend less on TV in Iowa in this race
than in his 2008 run, when he finished as an asterisk, with 1 percent of
the vote.
Comment: It is being reported elsewhere that campaign costs rose "exponentially" when Mike Bloomberg entered the race. Money was no problem for him, and networks raised their prices for advertising -- for all campaigns. Apparently other campaigns have noted that it's costing a lot more to campaign now that Mike Bloomberg is in the race. Bloomberg is ruining it for all of them. LOL.
Second: impeachment. From the article:
Biden aides who were being honest with themselves knew for
months that they were in trouble. Some didn’t want to believe it; some
couldn’t. Others felt like they’d gotten into a taxi with a driver who
was swerving all over the road, and they were just holding on and hoping
they made it to the end.
They hoped that Democrats’
obsession with beating Donald Trump and voters’ sense of personal
connection to Biden would pull them over the edge. Trump had blundered
into his own impeachment out of fear that Biden was strong.
Now they
were hoping the impeachment trial would help make up for his weakness.
“We might win this,” one person who worked on the campaign told me the
week before the caucuses, “and it might come down to nothing we’ve
done.”
Comment: Donald Trump did not "blunder" into anything. The US House was going to impeach Trump at some point.
I used to say to myself that I wish Trump had never made that Ukrainian phone call. That's absolutely wrong and no one has yet figured that out. The Ukrainian phone call was a McGuffin. That's what Alfred Hitchcock would have called it.
If there had been no Ukrainian phone call at all, there would have been something else. Assassinating a legitimate general Army office might be impeachable; it puts every one of our own general officers at increased risk. The emoluments issue is still out there. The "obstruction" on tax returns is still out there. Unilaterally withdrawing from the climate "deal" is still out there. There are/and were a million reasons that Nadler/Schiff could have come up with to impeach Trump. [The interesting thing is that they were unable to come up with anything substantial -- reminding us how weak their case really was. I'll get back to this later.]
So the Ukrainian phone call was a McGuffin.
The interesting thing is that of all the McGuffins that Nancy Pelosi could have selected, this was perhaps the worse: it would fatally wound Biden, and she knew it. Unless she's not quite as bright as the rest of the establishment sees her.
So, we have a twofer. At least a twofer. First, Trump did not blunder into impeachment. Three years ago it was decided that "they" would impeach him; they were hoping Mueller would give "them" the ammunition. Mueller did not. Second, Nancy Pelosi, et al picked exactly the wrong McGuffin. LOL.
Third: the candidate. The writer not once touches on why Iowans did not warm up to Biden. Of all the candidates, he and Sanders are the "old hats." Folks want to see fresh faces, hear new ideas, touch new hands. Biden might possibly transcend all that (Bernie has) but Biden has no new ideas. It's Obama (at best) all over again. Or at worst, stale Democrat Party platitudes His soundbite the other night in Iowa: his standing in the polls / the Democrat Party was all about unions. He said that he would win Iowa because the unions would make it happen. Wow. That's a throwback to the 1950s.
Now, back to McGuffin -- I said I would return to the weak impeachment case. "They" only had to find him guilty on one article of impeachment. Why did Nancy Pelosi not send up 35 articles of impeachment, or 24, or 55 or 31? Why just two? Mitch McConnell and company were able to dispense of two articles of impeachment in less then thirty minutes once the voting actually started.
In hindsight, the two articles of impeachment were so incredibly weak, nebulous, vacuous, Nadler, et al, should have been able to come up with dozens of similar Articles of Impeachment. Even if found innocent on all accounts, can one imagine the headline: 35 articles of impeachment! The New York Times would have needed to print a special Sunday edition just to showcase 35 articles.
If Biden is out of the race by Super Tuesday / or right after Super Tuesday, there will be a lot of articles, "how Biden blew it" and they will all be similar to The Atlantic article. But they will all miss the point.
The voters know Joe Biden. Twelve disciples with an unlimited bank account could not manage a winning strategy for this has-been plagiarist with a crazy affinity for the smell of hair spray.
A reader -- much more knowledgeable than I am regarding all of this -- corrected one of my earlier notes regarding "water." The reader notes that there is a difference between flowback (water) and produced water, but the reader explains much more.
This explains so much -- an incredible note and much appreciated.
The reader wrote:
There is a major distinction regarding the flowback/produced water situation.
Prior
to the introduction of HVFRs (high viscosity friction reducers) about three (3)
years ago, operators "opened the chokes" in the early week or two after
fracturing to remove the bulk of the frac fluid.
One
big reason for doing so was to minimize the 'skin', aka the 'gumming
up' of the fractures due to the guar - or other thickening agents -
which was needed to transport the proppant.
When these
polymers - HVFRs - were introduced, proppant transport was enhanced with
several other follow on consequences (re-using frac fluid being one).
One
big effect was no 'skin/gumming' occurred and higher formation
pressure (via injection of millions of gallons of water) could be
sustained indefinitely.
This is one reason early hydrocarbon
production is so high and stays - relatively - high ... along with the
now labelled produced water.
Historically,
produced water increases each month. The observed decrease in recent
wells produced water is further indication that this is almost all frac
fluid.
This pertains to the "water" mentioned at this post.
This is a very, very typical well in Tier 1 Bakken wells.
The IP is nothing particularly noteworthy (see record IPs here) and the monthly production is not all that remarkable compared to many Bakken wells in Tier 1 locations.
But look at that cumulative production. There are many wells drilled back in the early days of the boom (2008 - 2012) that still haven't hit 100,000 bbls. This one has produced more than 100,000 bbls of crude oil in less than four months of production.
And, again, this is a well that doesn't get my attention. I see these results day in and day out looking at wells now being reported (yes, there is a lot of water (see this note); and much natural gas is being flared). Also note how "small" the frack was -- only 6 million lbs:
30188, 1,569, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31 2B, 40 stages; 6 million lbs; Baker, t8/19; cum 109K 12/19;
32974, dry, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H, Reunion Bay, failed cement issue;
From the file report:
MRO drilled this well to TD of 23,612 measured depth. 7" casing set at 11,033' MD. Then ran 4.5" liner to 23,607' MD, and rigged up to cement in liner. With liner hanger at 10,411.9' MD.
MRO pumped liner cement job and when stringing out to circulate out excess cement, the cement flash set, and caused liner running tools and drill string to be cemented in hole
temperature survey and CBL indicates that drill pipe is cemented in hole at 7,940'.
4" HWD drill pipe was cut off at 7,904' MD, while MRO evaluated options, to cut off 7" redrill, wash over and attempt to pull drill pipe or completely PA and drill replacement well. Have 4" HWDP from 7,904' to 10,411.9' MD -- cemented inside 7" above liner packer at 10,411.9' MD.
I posted this earlier, when it came off the confidential list, but it was part of a longer post. I want to post this as a stand-alone post so it can be highlighted at the sidebar at the right. We didn't have the frack data at the original post. Here's the pertinent frack data: 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs; Three Forks, first bench;
**********************************
The MRO Well
The previous monthly record?
32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 474K 3/21; TD: 23,722 feet; permit: Three Forks B2; stimulation: Three Forks B1; 56 stages; 11.4 million pounds proppant; sundry form dated September 4, 2017, name change and target changed from second bench to first bench;
Monthly Production Data:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
4-2019
30
34767
34915
32321
76106
25649
47196
BAKKEN
3-2019
31
52081
52872
46748
85724
16771
62683
BAKKEN
2-2019
22
38759
37401
35904
56589
21944
31313
BAKKEN
1-2019
1
28
959
11
36
1
32
BAKKEN
12-2018
29
37430
37048
40410
59261
15451
39814
BAKKEN
11-2018
28
56299
56577
55748
99904
32294
63510
BAKKEN
10-2018
31
133711
133069
124441
201573
35899
156881
BAKKEN
9-2018
5
19416
19229
17619
20980
0
19699
Note: looking at the NDIC map, a Slawson well, under the lake,
looks like the horizontal was a full three-section lateral, or a "3-mile
well." The MRO wells looks like the horizontal, also under the lake,
was 2.5 sections or a "2.5-mile well."
In the same area:
32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Three Forks B2, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 393 12/19; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; see this post with production profile;
A few wells in the Sanish previously operated by Kaiser-Francis, now operated by Kraken, are updated. These are incredibly awful wells, especially considering that they are in the Sanish oil field. Most, if not almost all, of the wells have been taken off-line.
I don't see any active drilling or active fracking in the area. One wonders if Kraken has taken these wells off line while they figure out what to do next.
February 6, 2020: Crescent Dunes, $737-million-backed by the federal government; solar company in Nevada declares bankruptcy. Link here.
Solyndra: $535 million. Crescent Dunes lost its only customer; suffered
a catastrophic technology failure -- can't even produce any
electricity.
I'm assuming that's a 640-acre section, but I don't know. If it is, and if it's accurate, that's pretty clever. The operator is drilling a horizontal no longer than the standard length of a horizontal in the Bakken. At the same time, the operator is getting two horizontal wells for the price of one.
Even Chuck Todd is confused. He said, at 12:42 p.m. CT on MSNBC (I watched the Trump address on MSNBC) that the Iowa Democrat party chair has said the party is re-counting / or re-canvasing the entire Monday night "votes." The party chair either said directly or implied (I didn't quite catch what Chuck Todd was saying) that "we" should all simply ignore the Iowa numbers. The party is "re-counting" them.
I guess I got some of that wrong. But I'm not sure Chuck Todd had it all correct either. Whatever.
Here it is:
The chairman of the National Democratic Party is now calling for an immediate recanvass by the Iowa Democratic Party "In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results," he tweeted Thursday afternoon.
Ah, it's the NATIONAL Democrat party chair calling for a do-over in Iowa.
Whenever I see "Democrat" and "do-over" in the same sentence, I immediately think of Hillary Clinton.
***********************************
MSNBC Hypocrisy (But I Repeat Myself)
I've never had so much fun watching MSNBC. After Trump's victory speech, the reporters were most upset that he used the word "bullshit" in the East Room of the White House. LOL. I noticed "they" immediately quit mentioning that when it brought back memories of the stain on the "blue dress" worn in the Oval Office. LOL.
The Honor, Grace, Courage, And Pride wells are tracked here. This page will not be updated. All four wells have each gone over 500K bbls crude oil, and they are not that old.
Subtle jump in production. More importantly, the increased production lasted much longer than one might expect.
The well:
26609,1,703, Enerplus Resources, Pride 150-94-06A-18H TF, t10/14; cum 541K 12/19;
The BR Merton wells are tracked here. Spend some time looking at those wells. At least one has gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative, and many will be getting there shortly.
Another BR Merton well recently came off the confidential list, is now reporting:
30487, 77 (no typo), BR, Merton 14-10TFH ULW, 33-053-06657, Three Forks well; North Fork, this well was fracked 3/12/2019 - 3/24/2019; 7.6 million gallons of water (FracFocus), a moderate size frack; 33 stages; 10.7 million lbs; t3/19; cum 267K 12/19;
The gloves come off: Oval Office, 12:00 noon ET, today. Same time Rush Limbaugh usually starts his 3-hour show. He was last on his show, Monday, earlier this week; said he would be back today. Was honored with Presidential Medal of Freedom, Tuesday night in Nancy Pelosi's chamber. [Later: I'm listening to the speech: wow, the gloves are off. Amazing.]
GDP, by country, these are 2018 numbers, two years ago;
global: $84 trillion
US: a "staggering" $21 trillion
China, #2: $14 trillion, two years ago
then it trails off remarkably:
Japan, #3: $5 trillion -- a distant third
Germany, #4: $4 trillion -- if Japan was a distant third, how does one talk about Germany's GDP?
UK #5: $3 trillion
five biggest economies account for about half of the total global GDP
US growth rate in 2019: 2.3 percent
US: consumer spending accounts for more than 2/3rds of the country's GDP (which means the more gasoline costs, the higher the GDP -- what's wrong with that metric? LOL)
Market: all three major indices hit new all-time highs.
**********************************
Iowa Caucuses
Are you kidding me.
It's February 6, 2020, Thursday. The Iowa caucuses "closed" early evening, Monday, February 3, 2020, and we still don't the final results. We're close but not there yet. At 97%.
Buttigieg: 26.2%
Sanders: 26.0%
******************************
Federal Judgeships
If the US House isn't getting anything done, they can't send anything to the US Senate. That gives the US Senate a lot of free time.
At 90%, the highest this metric has been -- ever -- tracked since 1979, at 90% -- highest polling ever:
Connecting the dots?
Market:
major indices hitting new records (I believe Dow is still below its all-time high)
individual stocks:
IMUX: up 2.4%; trading at $9.15;
PFE: up a bit;
ENB: up a bit; trading at $42.06;
OKE: down a dime, trading just under $76;
SRE: up a bit; has had a nice run;
D: up a tad;
BKH: up almost a percent;
MDU: up almost two percent; trading at $31.81;
T: up over 1%;
AAPL: taking a pause to re-fresh; down 0.16%; later, goes green (FOMO);
BRK-B: up 0.16%;
F: flat
TSLA: up 3%; back to its usual volatility;
Twitter stock pops 8% on 4Q19 user, sales boost;
Taxes: Amazon paid 1.2% tax rate in 2019. So, what did the US House (Dem majority; Pelosi; do about this?) If there's a problem here, and I don't think there is, the problem lies with US tax policy, which begins with the US House.
U-Think? “Florida greeted the largest number of U-Haul® moving trucks entering
its borders versus exiting them, establishing a new No. 1 growth state
for the first time in four years…."
California ranked 49th. -- U-Haul annual growth survey.
one can assume that few folks crossing into California from Mexico are coming in with U-Hauls; in fact, you can "take that to the bank," as they say
********************************
Politics -- The Impeachment
At the end of the day, I think President Trump really enjoys this. He loves a good fight, and he loves it when he wins. The impeachment win is huge for him. In his mind, and that's all that counts, exonerated.
In hindsight, one wonders if no impeachment had been held if that would have been worse. Sort of like wandering in purgatory. Endless accusations. Sort of like internal medicine physicians arguing about best course of action; surgeon comes in, cuts it out, and patient survives. Better than ever. Heart attack? Internal medicine: this medication or this medication or no medication. Cross our fingers. Surgeon: puts in a stent and the patient goes home.
Had there never been any impeachment trial would "we" have ever known? Did President Trump over-step the boundaries rising to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors? Apparently not.
And so we move on, to the next fight.
By the way, has anyone looked at the map that the US administration is proposing for a two-state solution (Palestine/Israel)? And Palestine said, "no." Wow, poor negotiators. That was incredible what Palestine was getting in the deal. But we move on. And Palestine, apparently, won't.
but I thought I saw on television this a.m. that at 97% precincts reporting, Sanders took a definite lead; we'll see.
A quick scroll through my twitter feed:
"fake news": this was the headline from EIA -- "despite the US becoming a net petroleum exporter, most regions were still net importers" -- so much wrong with that headline, LOL graphic below
four mega-cities in China (Beijing, Tianjin, Quongqing, and Shanghai) -- all governed by Beijing -- now one of them -- Tianjin in the north, near Beijing -- restricts entry and exit from residential compounds, villages
Russia blocks OPEC's offers to cut production
China's CNOOC declares force majeure on LNG contracts; inventories overfilling storage sites
Sinopec: may cut Saudi oil purchases
UK to move to golf carts only by 2035; ICE vehicles will be banned
SOTU:
Buttigieg: change course!!
Sanders: resist!!
Pocahontas: happy hour, anyone?
Biden: WTF just happened?
Impeachment:
Romney nixes "presumed innocent until proven guilty"; admits that the president not proven guilty, but his religious beliefs forced him to vote the way he did; paraphrasing; noted by others;
Most ridiculous "conclusion" so far today:
"fake news": this was the headline from EIA -- "despite the US becoming a
net petroleum exporter, most regions were still net importers" -- so
much wrong with that headline, LOL. Graphic:
Later, see comment below regarding the graphic above:
Look past the headline. It's a decent article and has some important
points to think about. (Plus I like the author, Mason Hamilton--check
his Twitter.)
Landlubbers ignore the bicoastal nature of the US.
But the Navy knows this well. Is in our DNA for PAC and LANT to be
very different animals.
The distances for ships to respond in the
1898 war were behind the creation of the Panama Canal (damned Jimmy
giveaway). But it's still very hard to move back and forth. And
obviously carriers and crude tankers still go all the way around SA.
For
oil, you have the West Coast being "an island" because of the lack of
pipes connecting it to the middle of the country. HI literally is. And
can't get crude from the Gulf, even with ships because of the Jones
Act. Within that PADD, you used to have a lot of internal production
(AK and CA), but both are way declined now. So imports make sense.
Then
for the East, it's a little like the West. No crude pipes going over
the Appalachians (one important products pipe, though). Shipping from
the Gulf Coast would make huge sense but is not economic because of the
Jones Act. So they import, while VLCCs head out from Houston but going
much further away (export). The author also describes gasoline
importing, which is sort of a classic story--basically US likes gasoline
engines and Germany likes diesel. Refineries make both. But then
Euros export gasoline and import diesel. And we do the opposite.
That's the benefit of free trade! Get rid of stuff you don't need as
much in exchanges with countries who have the reverse problem. (Donald,
take note. Rand can explain it.)
The Rockies are a relatively
small market and supply most of their own needs. Decent connections to
middle of the country, but still not a huge deal. No point in
importing.
Midwest gets a lot of Canadian crude, very price
advantaged also. So makes sense to be an importer. Used to get PADD to
PADD transfers from the Gulf up (imported). But those lines are now
stopped and actually reversing. Capline reversal is a big deal.
Gulf
PADD is exporting huge amounts of light sweet now, that are worth more
overseas than here. Still has decent imports of sour medium/heavy. But
even has backed out all light imports. And even the heavier imports
are going down as they blend with less and less (but heavier) in order
to mop up the US LTO as much as possible. And then, no need to import
for transfer up toe Chicago any more either (as that is well supplied by
Canadian crude and Bakken LTO).
The development of Appalachia’s Marcellus and Utica shales has
flipped regional natural gas prices in the U.S. Northeast from their
long-time premiums to Henry Hub, to trading at a significant discount
and, in the process, reversed inbound gas flows, including from Eastern
Canada. But there is an exception: from an entry point at the northern
edge of New York, the Iroquois Gas Transmission pipeline is still
importing Canadian gas supply nearly year-round to help meet local
demand, despite its proximity to Marcellus/Utica production via other
Northeast pipelines. This has kept prices along the Iroquois pipeline
system at a premium to the other points in the region. And with the new,
1,100-MW Cricket Valley Energy Center power plant due online this
spring, Iroquois prices are likely to strengthen. Today, we examine the
dynamics driving Iroquois prices and gas flows.
Natural gas pricing is not uniform across the Northeast; the
magnitude of the discount varies with how constrained the local pipe is
and the location of the pricing point relative to the constraints. But
in general, from eastern Ohio and Pennsylvania up through New England,
prices tied to robust Marcellus/Utica shale production have traded at a
significant discount to Henry Hub ever since Appalachian gas production
surpassed Northeast demand and the region became a net supplier to the
Midwest and Gulf Coast regions in the mid-2010s. Of course, during
extreme wintry weather, prices in the East Coast market area,
particularly New York and New England, are prone to spikes, where they
jump not only above Henry Hub, but above all global gas prices or even
above an oil parity price. These markets have maintained discounts to
Henry on most days, however — that is, except for points along the
Iroquois pipeline, which, because of the system’s reliance on gas
imports from Canada, have escaped the worst of the discounted pricing
and trade above the rest of the region year-round.
