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Sunday, December 1, 2019

Sunday Notes -- December 1, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures: I've long learned that futures the night before (and through the night) often have little correlation with the opening bell, but hope springs eternal. Right now, 7:08 p.m. Central Time, the Dow is up around 100 points. NASDAQ and S&P 500 are also up.

Economy: Black Friday set an on-line sales record, and came close to setting an all-time on-line sales record regardless of the day (i.e., Cyber Monday). It's very possible that tomorrow will set an all-time on-line sales record.

US shale revolution: we're starting to see more and more stories that the US shale revolution is slowing down. Some of those stories have already been posted (linked). Now another one from Bloomberg, dated December 1, 2019: OPEC+ gambles that US shale's golden age is over. But the numbers are not particularly noteworthy:
Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, expects U.S. production to increase by 700,000 barrels a day from December 2019 to December 2020, compared to growth of 1.1 million barrels a day from the end of 2018 to the end of 2019.
In fact, it looks like US shale is just one problem for OPEC:
Perhaps the biggest problem for OPEC isn’t American shale but rising output elsewhere. Brazilian and Norwegian production is increasing, and will increase further in 2020. After several years of low prices, engineers have made many projects cheaper, and the results are clear.
Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oil field, the biggest development in decades in the North Sea, started up earlier this year, months ahead of schedule and several billions dollars under its original budget. [And one of the reasons I love to blog; had I not blogged I would have missed this one; tracked at the sidebar at the right.]
And Guyana, a tiny country bordering Venezuela in Latin America, is about to pump oil for the first time. [Another play that turned out to be quite a surprise.]
Everybody keeps talking about how they can't make money at current price of oil, and yet more and more oil is found, and more and more oil is produced. And some folks think supply is much tighter than we are led to believe. This will be fascinating to watch. 2020 might be the year that some things are finally sorted out.

More from the linked article:
The cartel knows well that’s taking a gamble. The group’s own estimates show that if it continues pumping as much as it has done over the last couple of months -- roughly 29.9 million barrels a day -- it would supply about 200,000 barrels more crude daily than the market needs on average next year. The oversupply would be concentrated in the first half, when OPEC estimates it needs to pump just 29 million barrels a day to prevent oil stocks building up.
Still, OPEC officials, speaking privately, believe the world’s supply and demand balance could be tighter than many expect -- a big change from the past three years. They see non-OPEC output growth falling short of forecasts while global demand increases could be higher than expected.
And the crude market is, right now, relatively tight, giving OPEC some solace that it would be able to weather the first few months of 2020 when it will loosen up a bit. The tightness is particularly acute for the kind of oil that most Middle East nations pump: lower quality so-called heavy-sour oil. Riyadh, for example, is selling its flagship Arab Light crude at a premium of 40 cents to the benchmark into Asia, one of the strongest ever levels.
Another article along the same line: from oilprice. Probably a re-write of other stories already published/posted/linked.


WTI, tonight, futures, after a bad week, WTI is up 1.63% tonight, up 90 cents, trading at $56.07. 

Tea leaves: everything suggests a great day for the market tomorrow.

The Staggering Helis Grail; QEP Has Two Wells That Recently Went Over 600,000 Bbls Cumulative; A Third Well That Went Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative -- December 1, 2019

This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked here

The wells:
  • 25041, 3,128, QEP, Lawlar 4-5-8BH, API: 33-053-04808; Grail, t4/14; cum 520K 10/19; a 10-fold jump in production, 11/18;
  • 24947, 2,586, QEP, Lawlar 2-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum 617K 10/19;
  • 24946, 1,823, QEP, Lawlar 1-5-8BH, Grail, t9/13; cum 623K 10/19;
A closer look at #25041:

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2019175262537450831502014559232
BAKKEN9-2019206493644538812034719222756
BAKKEN8-201931101761018962374492143694769
BAKKEN7-201927112561135280613986438574766
BAKKEN6-2019301408314046737850301484911416
BAKKEN5-2019311837918213912955370478907065
BAKKEN4-201922154391557386463402233396347
BAKKEN3-2019312045420485775749786479741281
BAKKEN2-2019282335823367636751805498331594
BAKKEN1-20193132228322131237558167547033059
BAKKEN12-20182928300282171567842213407831044
BAKKEN11-20182023792235465391100
BAKKEN10-2018001870000
BAKKEN9-201817156515061392065188237
BAKKEN8-2018311811184627529082645108
BAKKEN7-201831220121812054413414250
BAKKEN6-2018302088207127738163510123
BAKKEN5-20183124822489251407338800
BAKKEN4-20183023402370195362534469
BAKKEN3-2018312400241430839903630176
BAKKEN2-20182822832380254372917291839

FracFocus: re-fracked, 10/20/18 - 10/29/18; 7.3 million gallons of water; 85.5% by mass;

From the file report:
  • 32-stage refrac completed on 11/11/18
  • max pressure: 8,509 psi
  • max rate: 45.6 bpm
  • total proppant: 9,616,800 lbs
  • total fluid: 175,096 bbls (7,354,032 gallons)

A Petro-Hunt Wisness Well In Clear Creek Goes Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative -- December 1, 2019

Wow, it's hard to believe that we haven't talked about this well since 2013.

The well:
  • 20382, 825, Petro-Hunt, Wisness 152-96-28A-33-1H, Clear Creek, t10/11; cum 519K 10/19; steady Eddy, no jumps in production over all these years; original frack back in 2011, 23 stages; 2.9 million lbs;

A BR Well In Keene Oil Field Goes Over 500,000 Bbls Cumulative -- December 1, 2019

This page will not be updated: this well is tracked here

The well:
  • 28414, 2,204, BR, Shenandoah 44-36MBH ULW, Keene, t3/15; cum 502K 10/19;  to the west; on the section line to the west of the Blue Ridge wells; off line 10/19;

Four Large MRO Wells Starting To Be Released From The Confidential List -- December 1, 2019

These four wells are on the same pad and are starting to be released from the confidential list.

The Estenson USA well
  • 35333, conf, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH, API: 33-061-04268, Reunion Bay, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019216270
9-201994430

The Holmgren well:
  • 35330, conf, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, API: 33-061-04265, Reunion Bay, 

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019343380
9-2019265210

The Tommerdahl USA well, tracked here:

  • 35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019357970
9-2019576270

The Dietrich well, tracked here:

  • 35331, conf, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, API: 33-061-04266, Reunion Bay, FracFocus, fracked 8/11/19 - 8/28/19; 8.3 million gallons; water by mass, 88.9%:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019403370
9-2019727320

FracFocus Data For A Huge MRO Dietrich Well In Reunion Bay -- December 1, 2019

The well:
  • 35331, conf, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, API: 33-061-04266, Reunion Bay, FracFocus, fracked 8/11/19 - 8/28/19; 8.3 million gallons; water by mass, 88.9%:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019403370
9-2019727320

Neighboring wells:

To the east, running south to north:
  • 22455, IA/1,780, MRO, Mylo Wolding 24-11H, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 342K 8/19; offline as of 8/19; remains off line 10/19;
Farther to the east, both running north to south:
  • 21199, IA/1,764, MRO, Lucky One 21-2THF, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 299K 8/19; off line as of 8/19; remains off line 10/19;
  • 21457, IA/1,829, MRO, Lucky One 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t6/12; cum 298K 6/19; off line as of 6/19; remains off line 10/19;
To the west, running south to north:
  • 25544, IA/1,468, MRO, Rudolph 44-10TFH, Reunion Bay, t10/13; cum 251K 12/18; off line as of 12/18; remains off line 10/19;
Farther west, running north to south:
  • 21369, IA/1,737, MRO, Wakelum 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t4/12; cum 342K 12/18; off line as of 12/18; remains off line 10/19;
For newbies:
  • operators are bringing costs to complete a well down to $6 million/well in the Bakken
  • 110,000 x $50 = $5.5 million

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 1, 2019

36184, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B, Capa, no production data,

36185, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11EXF, Capa, no production data,

35537, conf, Oasis, Kjos Federal 5501 11-18 9BX, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191940115397
9-20192129515723
8-20192436517371
7-20191796412053
6-20192138910051

 35316, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 12BX, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20192733364113
9-20192432157930
8-20193180474393
7-20192034744833

34743, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 9T, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191987648324
9-20192368760185
8-20192035544908
7-20192262742526
6-20191417020835

32414, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1, Banks, no production data,

36186, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11AXD, Capa, no production data,

35918, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, Squaw Creek, no production data,

35917, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek, no production data,

30596, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 3-4H, Bully, no production data,

35916, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, no production data,

32415, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, Banks, no production data,

30597, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, Bully, no production data,

36450, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, Capa, no production data,

35611, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-4, Ross,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20191276511744
8-20192348417686
7-20191208610272
6-20191772910944

 35536, conf, Oasis, Om Erickson 5501 11-18 4B, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191790814164
9-20192126215188
8-20191763711629
7-2019159309506
6-2019210456404

35610, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-3, Ross,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-201996705315
8-2019116334811
7-201984274440
6-20191608912243

31653, conf, Oasis, McFarland Federal 5501 11-18 8BX, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191665912666
9-20191925213848
8-20192530417416
7-20191825912621
6-20192402912068

36095, conf, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HUL, Mandaree, no production data,

33448, conf, EOG, Clearwater 30-3103H, Ross, no production data,

31655, conf, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 11-19 4B, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191890814270
9-20192147015489
8-20191991013154
7-2019150498902
6-2019168847077

36417, conf, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltmans Panther 1-16, Wildcat, no production data, near Dickinson, this well is followed here; a Lodgepole well; most Lodgepole wells are really huge, or dry; not much in between;

36318, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, Croff, no production data,

36317, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH, Croff, no production data,

35635, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HZ, Mandaree, no production data,

35634, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HA, Mandaree, no production data,

35331, conf, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019403370
9-2019727320

 35330, conf, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019343380
9-2019265210

 33183, conf, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH, Little Knife, no production data,

35636, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HB, Mandaree, no production data,

33184, conf, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH-2NH, Little Knife, no production data,

36316, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, Croff, no production data,

36135, conf, XTO, Sorkness state Federal 34X-36G, Sorkness, no production data,

35637, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HY, Mandaree, no production data,

35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019357970
9-2019576270

 30108, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 43-7 6B, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20191399612101
9-20191744513597
8-20192211217340
7-20191679110737
6-20192347811887
5-20191296743

36136, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, Sorkness, no production data,

35638, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HC, Mandaree, no production data,

35587, conf, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, Cedar Coulee,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20193375940264
9-20193465541308
8-20194141548544
7-20193189134573
5-20199960

35333, conf, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2019216270
9-201994430

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 1, 2019

Monday, December 9, 2019: 29 for the month; 234 for the quarter:
36184, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B, 


Sunday, December 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 233 for the quarter:
36185, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11EXF,
35537, conf, Oasis, Kjos Federal 5501 11-18 9BX, 
35316, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 12BX, 
34743, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 9T
32414, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1

Saturday, December 7, 2019: 23 for the month; 228 for the quarter:
36186, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11AXD, 
35918, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, 
35917, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HA,
30596, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 3-4H, 

Friday, December 6, 2019: 19 for the month; 224 for the quarter:
35916, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, 
32415, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, 
30597, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, 

Thursday, December 5, 2019: 16 for the month; 221 for the quarter:
36450, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, 
35611, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-4,
35536, conf, Oasis, Om Erickson 5501 11-18 4B, 

Wednesday, December 4, 2019: 13 for the month; 218 for the quarter:
35610, conf, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-3, 

Tuesday, December 3, 2019: 12 for the month; 217 for the quarter:
31653, conf, Oasis, McFarland Federal 5501 11-18 8BX,

Monday, December 2, 2019: 11 for the month; 216 for the quarter:
36095, conf, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HUL,
33448, conf, EOG, Clearwater 30-3103H, 
31655, conf, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 11-19 4B,

Sunday, December 1, 2019: 8 for the month; 213 for the quarter:
36417, conf, Freedom Energy Operating, LLC, Oltmans Panther 1-16, 
36318, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 2MBH, 
36317, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1TFH,
35635, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HZ, 
35634, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HA, 
35331, conf, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH
35330, conf, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, 
33183, conf, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH,

Saturday, November 30, 2019: 104 for the month; 205 for the quarter:
35636, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HB, 
33184, conf, BR, Franklin 34-36MBH-2NH,

Friday, November 29, 2019: 102 for the month; 203 for the quarter:
36316, conf, Petroshale, Anderson North 1MBH, 
36135, conf, XTO, Sorkness state Federal 34X-36G, 
35637, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HY,
35332, conf, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, 
30108, conf, Oasis, Jensen 5501 43-7 6B,

Thursday, November 28, 2019: 97 for the month; 198 for the quarter:
36136, conf, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36C, 
35638, conf, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HC,
35587, conf, CLR, Carus 12-28HSL1, 
35333, conf, MRO, Estenson USA 11-2TFH,