10-Year Bond Rates -- Millennials May See History Being Made In The US Bond Market -- June 5, 2019

Folks are talking about 1.75% on the 10-year bond yield by the end of the year. If so, it would be historic:

It's not that we've never seen 1.75% before, but once we hit 1.75% this time, we will stay there (or go lower) for quite some time. 

Europe has a bigger problem: addicted to negative rates. See link here to The WSJ.

For five years, European nations have been trying to jump-start their ailing economies with what was supposed to be a radical, short-term remedy—negative interest rates.

Instead, central banks haven’t been able to wean their economies off them. Increasingly, they appear to be a permanent feature of the landscape. No major bank that introduced negative rates during Europe’s debt crisis has turned main policy rates positive again.

“Overall, we are on a painkiller,” said Tamaz Georgadze, chief executive of Raisin GmbH in Berlin, which provides a platform for consumers and businesses to deposit through 77 banks in 25 countries, “and it’s very hard to get off it.”

Negative rates reverse normal lending costs. Commercial banks must pay to keep their money in central banks, rather than collecting interest on it. That means they should have an incentive to lend their money at low cost to other banks, businesses and consumers while charging some customers to deposit cash. In theory, that encourages people to borrow more, spend more and save less—stimulating the economy until negative rates aren’t needed.

***************************************

The Foodie Page

First beer can chicken of the summer.

I am absolutely convinced it's impossible to "screw up" beer can chicken. Wow, first beer can chicken of the summer turned out absolutely perfect. Sixty minutes on the grill. Perhaps, 55 minutes, maybe 50 minutes would have been slightly -- imperceptibly -- better.

The rub I used tonight: Weber Original Dry Rub: $8.99 on line; $4.99 at the local grocery store. I used to make my own rubs, but not worth the time, effort, and expense. So many from which to choose.

Recipe:

• pat dry the chicken
• liberal brushing with vegetable oil
• liberal rub
• truss: wrap twine around the legs, then around the body of the chicken, and end with the wings
• place chicken cavity over 3/4 - 1/2 full beer can -- 12-oz or 16-oz (I used 16-oz tonight simply because it was the least expensive option at store)
• set up grill as above
• 60 minutes (Weber grill covered of course)

This Is Another One: I Cannot Make This Stuff Up! The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me? How About 140,000 Bbls Crude Oil In One Month? Or Almost 200,000 BOE In Initial Production? -- Slawson, #31278

Update

The well:

• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 407K 10/19;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	10-2019	28	40000	39411	33352	27215	22994	0
  BAKKEN	9-2019	30	37453	37939	33956	25316	21298	20
  BAKKEN	8-2019	29	53320	52834	39184	27544	22884	0
  BAKKEN	7-2019	31	33921	34045	1098	23126	19317	141
  BAKKEN	6-2019	22	29585	30475	29452	16579	12787	471
  BAKKEN	5-2019	30	36801	37642	26249	22557	17513	935
  BAKKEN	4-2019	29	136924	135272	93535	98300	79805	3959
  BAKKEN	3-2019	4	15385	15626	7510	6506	0	4747

Original Post

I'm just going to post the scout report now and then come back to this one later. When I get something this amazing, it generally takes everything out of me and I have to take a break.

In addition, I will be picking up Sophia from TutorTime in a few minutes.

The well:

• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 178K in 41 days; TD: 25,490 feet;

• cum oil: 177,855 bbls
• cum MCF: 114,069 = 19,008 boe
• total boe over first 41 days:  196,863 boe

The scout report:

NDIC File No: 31278     API No: 33-061-03696-00-00     CTB No: 231270 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 3/15/2019     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SESE 30-152-91     Footages: 635 FSL 498 FEL     Latitude: 47.950592     Longitude: -102.366822 Current Operator: SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC. Current Well Name: TORPEDO FEDERAL 10H Elevation(s): 1909 KB   1890 GR   1913 GL     Total Depth: 25490     Field: BIG BEND Spud Date(s):  1/22/2018 Casing String(s):  9.625" 1877'   7" 10191'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10205-25276     Comp: 12/21/2018     Status: F     Date: 12/27/2018     Spacing: ICO Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 177855     Cum MCF Gas: 114069     Cum Water: 127091 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 12/27/2018     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 4862     IP MCF: 1998     IP Water: 3561

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 4-2019 29 139068 135272 93535 97897 79402 3959 BAKKEN 3-2019 4 15385 15626 7510 6506 0 4747 BAKKEN 2-2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 1-2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 BAKKEN 12-2018 8 23402 21672 26046 9666 0 7115

Look at the completion strategy / frack:

Altogether:

• 87 stages
• 13.4 million lbs of proppant
• 14.6 million gallons of water; 89.6% water (FracFocus)

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	29	139068	135272	93535	97897	79402	3959
BAKKEN	3-2019	4	15385	15626	7510	6506	0	4747
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	8	23402	21672	26046	9666	0	7115

************************* 

I verified with Slawson Exploration Company, Inc, that this is not a typo. It is an accurate number.

The second question: to the best of their knowledge is this the highest production number for any month in a Bakken well? To the best of their knowledge it is. Note:

• it was not quite a full 31-day month; if so, it would have been higher
• the company did note that had they not had those four days in March, the full month of April would have been even greater
• the previous record was probably a Marathon well in Reunion Bay that had around 133,000 bbls in one month

I suppose, if one wanted, one could extrapolate the 139,068 over 29 days to 148,659 bbls over 31 days but one might say that this is gilding the lily and "it is what it is."

I suggested that "nothing special" was done (completion strategy/frack operation), and Slawson agreed: they may have let the well "rip" to see what it could do but nothing "special" was done in terms of a completion strategy. Don't take that out of context. I was asking in a general sense and not asking for specifics.

Anyway, there's a lot more to write about this well, but I do have to take a break to think about this.

From the geologist's report:

• drilled during the coldest part of the year in ND: drilled out of surface casing on February 1, 2018
• the lateral targeted the middle Bakken, ranging from 16' below the upper Bakken shale down to approximately 28' below the upper Bakken shale (about 12' thick)
• gas levels ranged between 50 - 1,000 units; peaks in excess of 6,000 units while in the target zone
• approximately 88% of the lateral was drilled within the target zone with minimal exposure out of target zone 

Congratulations to Slawson, and all the folks involved. This is really quite amazing. I would imagine there are some very, very happy "mom and pop" mineral owners.

**********************************

The MRO Well

The previous monthly record?

• 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 372K 4/19; TD: 23,722 feet;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	34767	34915	32321	76106	25649	47196
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	52081	52872	46748	85724	16771	62683
BAKKEN	2-2019	22	38759	37401	35904	56589	21944	31313
BAKKEN	1-2019	1	28	959	11	36	1	32
BAKKEN	12-2018	29	37430	37048	40410	59261	15451	39814
BAKKEN	11-2018	28	56299	56577	55748	99904	32294	63510
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	133711	133069	124441	201573	35899	156881
BAKKEN	9-2018	5	19416	19229	17619	20980	0	19699

Note: looking at the NDIC map, the Slawson well, under the lake, looks like the horizontal was a full three-section lateral, or a "3-mile well." The MRO wells looks like the horizontal, also under the lake, was 2.5 sections or a "2.5-mile well."

Random Update Of A Hess AN-Bohmback Well -- June 5, 2019

This well is still SI/NC (a DUC):

• 35095, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-6, Antelope-Sanish, t--: cum 26K after 14 days; the well was fracked 2/3/2019 - 3/5/2019 (no typo); 8.1 million gallons of water; 84% water;

NDIC File No: 35095     API No: 33-053-08607-00-00     CTB No: 135095 Well Type: OG     Well Status: NC     Status Date: 11/7/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SESW 22-153-94     Footages: 295 FSL 1773 FWL     Latitude: 48.053301     Longitude: -102.755549 Current Operator: HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC Current Well Name: AN-BOHMBACH- 153-94-2734H-6 Elevation(s): 2156 GL     Total Depth:       Field: ANTELOPE Spud Date(s):  9/7/2018 Completion Data    Pool: SANISH     Status: SI     Date: 11/7/2018 Cumulative Production Data    Pool: SANISH     Cum Oil: 25890     Cum MCF Gas: 41070     Cum Water: 10563

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare SANISH 4-2019 14 25890 25657 10563 41070 7204 33866

****************** 

From the file / geologist's report:

• spud: October 28, 2018
• cease drilling: November 7, 2018
• lateral gas levels averaged 279 units
• max gas units in the lateral: 2,694 units
• wellbore tracked throughout the middle Bakken for 100% of the lateral

This is a sister well to this well: #35093. See this post. 

WTI Drops Below $52; Eight New Permits -- June 5, 2019

Active rigs:

$51.63	6/5/2019	06/05/2018	06/05/2017	06/05/2016	06/05/2015
Active Rigs	64	61	50	25	82

Eight new permits:

• Operators: Oasis (7); WPX
• Fields: Banks (McKenzie), Mandaree (Dunn)
• Comments:
• Oasis has permits for a 7-well Thelen pad in lot 4/section 6-152-97, Banks oil field;
• WPX has permits for a single Blue Racer well in section 14-149-94, Mandaree oil field;

permits canceled: pending
permits renewed: pending
producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

Update On Another MRO Well In Bailey Oil Field After Neighboring Well Fracked -- June 5, 2019

This well recently fracked, at 47K over 22 days, this well extrapolates to 63,777 bbls/30days:

• 34044, 4,519, MRO, Rafter X 44-35H, Bailey, t4/19; cum 48K 4/19;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	22	46770	46435	62532	30494	0	27315
BAKKEN	3-2019	3	1126	807	2381	860	0	785

The neighboring well after the frack is now back on line.

The well:

• 17501, 464, MRO, Connie Connolly 21-26H, Bailey, t5/09; cum 235K 4/19; 6,208 bbls over 10 days extrapolates to 18,624 bbls/30 days:

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	10	6208	6107	44013	5777	0	5332
BAKKEN	3-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	25	958	947	230	891	0	684
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1194	1178	232	1106	0	852
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1266	1201	242	1166	0	901
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	1217	1289	261	1184	0	922

Random Update Of WPX Well In Spotted Horn After Neighboring Well Fracked -- June, 5, 109

This well showed significant increase in production after a neighboring wells was fracked:

• 29445, 2,441, WPX, Emma Owner 23-14HB, Spotted Horn, t3/16; cum 495K 4/19; see production profile below;

The neighboring well that was fracked:

• 34648, 2,498, WPX, Lead Woman 23-14HQ, Spotted Horn,  t12/18; cum 168K 4/19;

Production data of relevance:

• 29445:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	12848	12942	10308	17371	14603	926
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	14060	13995	11805	19009	14571	2452
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	11256	11321	11265	15219	11722	1862
BAKKEN	1-2019	23	9132	9036	10881	12347	3815	7125
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	18159	18187	29445	24550	6586	15551
BAKKEN	11-2018	4	1798	1727	2245	2431	1206	726
BAKKEN	10-2018	17	3045	3089	2000	4116	1886	1513
BAKKEN	9-2018	13	2009	2039	1163	2717	1562	604
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	5000	4939	2380	6760	3984	1789
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	5393	5441	2053	7292	4505	1738

• The Lead Woman well, #34648, had 50K+ production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	18	17032	16974	9286	20150	16803	1201
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	24219	24188	17978	28651	10851	14667
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	27720	27746	21446	32794	28628	710
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	28389	28371	28400	37379	33801	0
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	55539	55678	43018	65703	25006	34212
BAKKEN	11-2018	26	15404	15048	24506	18223	5701	10874

Random Update On A Recently Fracked / Completed EOG Clarks Creek Well -- June 5, 2019

The well:

• 32797, 2,172, EOG, Clarks Creek 72-0706H, Clarks Creek; t7/18; cum 254K 4/19;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	6954	6945	8693	39059	36066	1044
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	7458	7442	9236	40376	36648	1220
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	8297	8319	9733	45632	42335	1052
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	12147	12248	12869	59326	56218	758
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	15779	15766	14819	67431	64329	674
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	22506	22510	18676	72948	52175	18645
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	26912	26850	23025	84434	82389	372
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	41076	41660	31383	102628	98744	2074
BAKKEN	8-2018	28	57875	57802	48195	108102	96646	10249
BAKKEN	7-2018	26	55310	54570	48887	84346	64555	19700

Neighboring well:

• 20887, 1,455, EOG, Clarks Creek 13-1806H, Clarks Creek, t3/12; cum 386K 4/19;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	7235	7259	4982	18960	17743	509
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	8632	8595	5505	21895	20438	675
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	8511	8486	4715	21749	20578	507
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	9942	10000	8163	21731	20832	278
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	11081	11023	10800	22876	22051	228
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	11868	11850	11772	24056	17310	6136
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	12721	12665	13299	18807	18431	82
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	14170	14228	17983	21193	20451	424
BAKKEN	8-2018	18	9354	9225	15495	12965	11571	1215
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	15	966	987	1043	2012	1904	2
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2605	2613	2624	6308	6052	16
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2714	2749	3805	6939	6683	8
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2565	2548	972	6247	6013	10
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	2874	2873	776	7172	6891	33
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	3356	3360	543	9040	8747	48
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	4193	4156	683	8863	8572	51
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	2702	2724	2460	7210	6642	320

Random Update On A 50K+ MRO Bears Arm USA Reunion Bay Well -- June 5, 2019

The well:

• 33664, 4,844, MRO, Bears Arm USA 41-2H, Reunion Bay, t2/19; cum 157K 4/19; 

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	43268	43384	28845	47966	41413	3543
BAKKEN	3-2019	26	51463	51400	30037	59982	49232	7203
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	61223	61261	56951	49943	9346	36426
BAKKEN	1-2019	2	1178	730	2155	1171	0	1093

Neighboring wells remain off line:

• 23029, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 294K 1/19;
• 21466, 2,448, MRO, William USA 31-2H, Reunion Bay, t713; cum 461K 12/18; 

Random Look At Recently Fracked Hess EN-Thompson Well In Alkali Creek -- June 5, 2019

Recently a Hess EN-Thompson well was fracked/completed.

The well:

• 33015, 3,581, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-8, Alkali Creek, t12/18; cum 124K 4/19; 

Let's look at a neighboring well:

• 21288, 1,903, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-1, Alkali Creek, t4/12; cum 394K 4/19, recent production -- 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2019	13	1519	1530	2083	2241	194	2047
BAKKEN	3-2019	31	3831	3863	4980	6164	305	5549
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	7502	7482	7967	12671	2942	9450
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8962	8944	10725	13729	2802	10617
BAKKEN	12-2018	3	1175	1828	1019	1620	1490	100
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	5	228	214	60	518	471	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	1846	1873	439	8897	3980	4617
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	1842	1844	370	4461	4146	5