The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/13/19

Monday, May 13, 2019

Small Re-Frack Results In Huge New Well -- MRO -- May 13, 2019

See this post. Yup: MRO and Bailey oil field.

"Limited Know-How" Will Cost Mexico Plenty -- Reuters -- Is This Guy Nuts Or What? -- May 13, 2019

Updates

May 14, 2019: Pemex secures $8 billion loan to avoid junk status. The loan was mentioned in the story below, but the reason not given, until now.

Original Post

Is this guy nuts or what? He's starting to make Occasional-Cortex look like a "financial Einstein."

If I understand this correctly, the new Mexican president doesn't want "private sector" help on the country's new $8 billion refinery. He wants the state oil company, Pemex, to do it without private sector expertise.

Going it alone -- without expertise -- will increase the cost of the new refinery by $2 billion to $4 billion. This according to Reuters.

Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, is already the most indebted oil company in the world, and has been hemorrhaging cash for years—even in the days of $100 oil.

Earlier today, Mexico Daily News reported that three banks were extending an $8 billion loan to Pemex to add to its heavy debt burden, which is already more than $100 billion, from oilprice.

Remember, this is the same guy that shut down construction of a badly needed new airport for Mexico City due to high costs. But did anyone catch this?

From aljazeera:

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has announced the construction of a controversial new airport in Mexico City.

But the president is facing heavy criticism over the plans, after cancelling a multibillion-dollar airport project that was almost halfway complete.

From another source:

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Monday symbolically launched work on a new airport for Mexico City to replace the nearly half-built $13 billion project he cancelled upon taking office.

López Obrador promised the new Felipe Ángeles airport northeast of the capital won't exceed its budget and will save the government money even with the cancellation of the partially built airport.

The new airport — named for a general allied with revolutionary icon Pancho Villa — is at the Santa Lucia military air base and the army is in charge of getting it built for $4.1 billion.

It is supposed to begin operating in mid-2021, though construction has not yet begun.
Two new runways would be added to its existing one and the commercial airport would share the space with the military.

Critics have argued that the new airport will have difficulty operating simultaneously with the existing airport, but in a report by the military, consultant Navblue said they could operate simultaneously in terms of air space.

Mexico's foreign exchange reserves are in incredibly good shape, so no worries.

MRO Reports A Huge Well That Extrapolates To Almost 135,000 BOE Over 30 Days -- May 13, 2019

Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be typographical and factual errors. In addition, it was done in a busy, noisy environment increasing the odds of mistakes. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and may be seeing things that do not exist. If this is important to you, go to the source.

See "RecordIP" tag for other staggering wells.

The well, see this post:

34045, 7,152, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, t3/19; cum 24K 6 days;

SWSE 35-146-94; TF1: 45 stages; 6.1 million lbs;

Note: one of the more interesting things about this well -- the frack/completion was relatively modest. Instead of moving to 60 stages (and even higher), MRO stuck with 45 stages. Instead of a huge 15 million lbs (or even 20 million lbs used in some huge fracks), this was a very modest 6.1 million lbs -- very modest.

Note: this is a Three Forks first bench well. For newbies:

Three Forks wells are often better then middle Bakken wells off the same pad, or in the same immediate area
Three Forks wells generally require less proppant than middle Bakken wells, again, all things being equal

The well, scout ticket:

NDIC File No: 34045     API No: 33-025-03357-00-00     CTB No: 234044
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 3/22/2019     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSE 35-146-94     Footages: 323 FSL 1346 FEL     Latitude: 47.416445     Longitude: -102.614542
Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY
Current Well Name: GUDMON 44-35TFH
Elevation(s): 2268 KB   2241 GR   2246 GL     Total Depth: 21169     Field: BAILEY
Spud Date(s):  8/4/2018
Casing String(s):  9.625" 2355'   7" 10991'
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11094-21032     Comp: 3/22/2019     Status: F     Date: 3/30/2019     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 23981     Cum MCF Gas: 16566     Cum Water: 32846
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 3/30/2019     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 7152     IP MCF: 4702     IP Water: 9931

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2019	6	23981	21861	32846	16566	0	14946

The calculations:

oil: 23,981 bbls of oil over 6 days extrapolates to 119,905 bbls over 30 days
natural gas: 16,566 MCF over 6 days extrapolates to 83,830 MCF over 30 days
83,830,000 / 6001 = 13,803 boe over 30 days
total boe over 30 days = 133,708 bbls over 30 days

From the FAQ page:

What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? Note: as of November 13, 2018, FAQ #9 will be updated at this post.

Record IPs in the Bakken (link here).

Whether this is a record 30-day IP we will not be know until a couple of months from now. The 24-hour IP ranks up there as one of the top ten, I'm sure.

Neighboring older wells:

there are no older wells in the immediate area
however, there are five older wells of interest that would be relatively close to this well (within a mile)
of those five older wells, four are off-line; one is back on line and shows a huge jump in production

The graphics:

WTI Finishes Down Over 1% Today Despite "Saber-Rattling" In The Mideast -- May 13, 2019

Fake news: from oilprice.com earlier today --oil prices jumped on Monday on news that two Saudi oil tankers were supposedly attacked near the Persian Gulf, raising fears that supply may be at risk. In fact, WTI dropped 1.01%, trading barely above $61 at close of business today. Brent was down 0.55%. So much for hostilities in the Mideast -- at least today. Tomorrow is another day, to coin a phrase.

Active rigs:

$61.04	5/13/2019	05/13/2018	05/13/2017	05/13/2016	05/13/2015
Active Rigs	65	60	51	27	83

Nine new permits:

Operators: BR (6); XTO (3)
Fields: Clear Creek (McKenzie); Killdeer (Dunn County)
Comments:

BR has permits for a 9-well Glacierfill pad in section 16-151-96, Clear Creek oil field
XTO has permits for a 3-well Beckert pad in section 7-145-94, Killdeer oil field

Four permits renewed:

Whiting (2): two Carscallen permits in Williams County
Equinor (2): two Raymond permits in McKenzie County

Nine producing wells completed:

34510, 3,114, MRO, Monteau USA 34-7H, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 42K 24 days;
34509, 1,416, MRO, McKinley USA24-7TFH, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 17K 19 days;
34507, 3,610, MRO, Burshia USA 14-7H, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 28K 16 days;
34508, 2,931, MRO, Dearborn USA 24-7TFH, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 8K 6 days;
34451, 2,946, MRO, Greybull USA 31-18TFH, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 33K 22 days;
34450, 4,038, MRO, Berry USA 21-18H, Van Hook, t3/19; cum 66K 28 days;
34045, 7,152, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, t3/19; cum 24K 6 days; see this post;
35516, 1,008, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-12H, Siverston, t4/19; cum --;
35391, 1,246, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, t4/19; cum --;

Locations and completions:

34510: NENW 18-150-92; MB: 45 stages; 8.5 million lbs;
34509: NENW 18-150-92; TF1: 45 stages; 6.2 million lbs;
34507: NENW 18-150-92; MB: 45 stages; 8.4 million lbs;
34508: NENW 18-150-92; TF1: 45 stages; 6.5 million lbs;
34451: NENW 18-150-92; TF1: 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs;
34450: NENW 18-150-92; MB: 45 stages; 8. 4 million lbs;
34045: SWSE 35-146-94; TF1: 45 stages; 6.1 million lbs;
35516: Lot 1 5-150-98; 314 FNL 1048 FEL; MB: 62 stages; 7.2 million lbs;
35391: Lot 1 5-150-98; 314 FNL 1108 FEL; MB: 62 stages; 7.3 million lbs;

Draft -- needs to be checked:

File #	Fm	Oil	Days	30-day	MCF	30-day	MCF boe	TOTAL 30-day BOE
34045	TF1	23981	6	119,905	16566000	82830000	13,803	133,708
34450	MB	65945	28	70,655	52548000	56301429	9,382	80,037
34451	TF1	33182	22	45,248	29211000	39833182	6,638	51,886
34508	TF1	8406	6	42,030	15219000	76095000	12,680	54,710
34507	MB	27897	16	52,307	19100000	35812500	5,968	58,275
34509	TF1	17420	19	27,505	13290000	20984211	3,497	31,002
34510	MB	42318	24	52,898	30340	30340000	5,056	57,953

Taking The Day Off -- May 13, 2019

Incredibly beautiful day in north Texas.

Mideast, California, Venezuela, China, Mueller, Schiff -- just some of the reasons to take the day off. Good luck to all.

Only Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday -- May 13, 2019

Mideast refiners: scrambling to find crude oil to replace that lost from Iran and Venezuela. Link here.

*********************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list this weekend, Monday --

Monday, May 13, 2019: 38 wells for the month; 132 wells for the quarter

35302, SI/NC, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-6, Beaver Lodge;

Sunday, May 12, 2019: 37 wells for the month; 131 wells for the quarter

34550, 389, EOG, Austin 411-2919H, 36 stages; 9 million lbs, Parshall, t11/18; cum 35K 3/19; not as good a well as one would expect by EOG in the Parshall;

graphic of local area and neighboring wells;

a neighboring well's production has jumped four-fold;

Saturday, May 11, 2019: 36 wells for the month; 131 wells for the quarter

35303, SI/NC, Hess, BL-Domy-156-95-2932H-7, Beaver Lodge;

Active rigs:

$62.34	5/13/2019	05/13/2018	05/13/2017	05/13/2016	05/13/2015
Active Rigs	66	60	51	27	83

RBN Energy: crude oil and NGL export challenges at the Port of Houston.

The Houston Ship Channel (HSC) is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the U.S. Each year, thousands of vessels utilize the waterway, importing and exporting goods ranging from pharmaceutical products to what the Census Bureau classifies as “Leather Art; Saddlery Etc.; Handbags Etc.; Gut Art”. More to the point of today’s blog: over 10 million tons of energy products move through the channel each month. But as ships grow ever larger, the ports and canals that service them must also adapt to be able to handle their increased dimensions. The Houston Ship Channel now finds itself in a situation where it must adapt to meet increasing market demands. Today, we continue our series on the issues facing some Texas ports and the measures being taken to help alleviate them.