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Friday, April 12, 2019

Director's Cut Posted -- February, 2019, Data

Link here.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me. I completely missed it -- family commitments.

I will post my summary later, but for now you are on your own.

February natural gas production down slightly month-over-month.

February crude oil production down slightly month-over-month. For newbies, February is the cruelest month for North Dakota. But it does keep the riff-raff out.

Riff-Raff at the door:

Rocky Horror Picture Show

April 12, 2019, T+100, Part 3

Market: so how did the market finish?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based  on what you read here or think you may have read here.

And, again, at 100 days, the list of accomplishments by the 115th US Congress, led by Omar, Occasional-Cortex, and Ms Pelosi:

And, with that, we move on:
  • WTI: closed below $64
  • BA: up 2.56%; up almost $10; this is what makes investing "fun"; think about BA when trading CVX
  • BA with really, really, really bad news: surges $10 after recent setback
  • CVX: announces really, really good news, and the company's share price plummets
  • an open book test; we don't often get these opportunities
  • EOG: up almost $7; whoo-hoo
  • NOG: up 3%; somewhat disappointing but it is what it is
  • JAG: up almost 5% really exciting; 52--week high, almost $15; closed at just under $11 today
  • RSD-B: strange; dropped half a percent; well off its high; paying 5.8%; what's not to like? 
Note disclaimer.
  • XLNX: if it didn't hit the 52-week high today, it came very, very close; closed at $134.41; 52-week high, $134.48 -- yes, looks like it closed at $134.41 but hit an intra-day high, $134.48;
Let's check the e-mail:
  • Sempra Energy's Latin American assets eyed by Italy's Enel
  • oh, my goodness completely missed it -- Director's Cut released -- alert from reader -- time to move on -- this post is complete...

Ten New Permits; Thirteen Permits Renewed -- April 12, 2019

Active rigs:

$63.894/12/201904/12/201804/12/201704/12/201604/12/2015
Active Rigs6359513093


Ten new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (6); Enerplus (4)
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams); McGregory Buttes (Dun County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for a 6-well Breitling pad in section 23-156-99 in East Fork oil field
    • Enerplus has permits for a 4-well "Symphonic" pad in section 18-148-93 in McGregory Buttes
Thirteen permits renewed:
  • EOG (6): six Austin permits in Mountrail county
  • Oasis (4): four State permits in section 15-157-92, Mountrail County
  • Nine Point Energy (3): three Missouri permits in Williams County
Change of operator: from BTA Oil to NP Resources
  • 30 wells
  • southwestern North Dakota
  • Billings County, Golden Valley County
  • oldest permit: #12269
  • most recent permit: #33867

Celebrating -- April 12, 2019

So, Sophia, what do you think of Chevron's plans to buy Anadarko?



See this post.

April 12, 2019, T+100, Part 2

FWIW.

I will never again be "snookered" again about the risk of a natural gas shortage in the US.

April 12, 2019, T+100, Part 1

The top accomplishments for the 115th US Congress on their 100th day:


And we move along.

The road to California. This is 99% California's problem but for the rest of the country, any spike in the price of gasoline beyond what is expected at the beginning of the driving season in the US, can be traced back to President Obama killing the Keystone XL:


Fruitcake, but at least he admits that the FBI was electronically surveilling the Trump campaign, even if he didn't consider it spying --

Dictionary: A Britain is the world's most electronically surveilled country and our MI5 teams are the best at spying on suspects, proved by the fact they are stopping as many ...


Yes, it's a crisis. Both sides now agree that what is happening at the border is a crisis. 

Movies: the 50 best movies on Netflix right now -- huge twitter story from The New York Times. We'll come back to this later.

Movies: the best movies on Amazon Prime Video right now.

The Kraken Wells, Epping Oil Field, Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- April 12, 2019

The Kraken wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 34810, 2,154, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 1TFH, 60 stages, 15.4 million lbs, Epping, t11/18; cum 140K 2/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN2-20192825673256203349844237273210
    BAKKEN1-20193137889379425436050333387380
    BAKKEN12-20183148674485407328754703516510
    BAKKEN11-20182128010279234835221646152486099
    BAKKEN10-20180000
  • 34809, 1,684, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 2H, 60 stages; 15.4 million lbs, Epping, t11/18; cum 105K 2/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN2-20192817174171393521533412218930
    BAKKEN1-20193125314253735380737309294060
    BAKKEN12-20183137974378787688039256367870
    BAKKEN11-20182124520244445349618511123525861
    BAKKEN10-20180000000
  • 34808, 828, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 3TFH, 60 stages; 15.4 million lbs, Epping, t11/18; cum 86K 2/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN2-201925962596352859121942152640
    BAKKEN1-20193121042210696039733048264100
    BAKKEN12-20183126456264247414129923280800
    BAKKEN11-20183028466283788858123480219871090
    BAKKEN10-20181001005000
  • 34807, 1.423, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 4H, 60 stages; 15.4 million lbs, Epping, t11/18; cum 136K 2/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN2-20192824070240103092743670277780
    BAKKEN1-20193133046330744557647445372800
    BAKKEN12-20183138548384995751040579380760
    BAKKEN11-20183040707405816480531866255005953
    BAKKEN10-20181001270000
  • 34806, 929, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 5TFH, 60 stages; 15.4 million lbs, Epping, t11/18; cum 98K 2/19;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN2-20192814103140793423528974193980
    BAKKEN1-20193121963220145485933990270740
    BAKKEN12-20183132906328467895136504343100
    BAKKEN11-20183028786286977632424119201183596
    BAKKEN10-20181001291000
34810, Three Forks, first bench:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192825673256203349844237273210
BAKKEN1-20193137889379425436050333387380
BAKKEN12-20183148674485407328754703516510
BAKKEN11-20182128010279234835221646152486099
BAKKEN10-20180000000

Coming from the south, about a half-mile to the east, and parallel to these new wells:
  • 34793, 616, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 6H, Epping, t10/18; cum 113K 2/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192815662156313642530478153640
BAKKEN1-20193121839217835146037000215860
BAKKEN12-20183133333333437766134372248990
BAKKEN11-201828353003527385957304011664510456
BAKKEN10-201897005691429743525410773948
  • 34794, 550, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 7TFH, Epping, t10/18; cum 90K 2/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192610181101762537620833102350
BAKKEN1-20193116277162444388028497168880
BAKKEN12-20183127454274627222628868209960
BAKKEN11-20182829012290078151524725143757574
BAKKEN10-201897056696427647529213233752
  • 34795, 1,139, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 8H, Epping, t10/18; cum 143K 2/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192821345213003360239536188960
BAKKEN1-20193129473293774460746612259810
BAKKEN12-20183138533385496240539723288340
BAKKEN11-201828420784208771492380932031613909
BAKKEN10-201811115201137028694864022346155

34796, 1,566, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 9TFH, Epping, t10/18; cum 90K 2/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2019173440346712824810145720
BAKKEN1-20192192639275212171663599520
BAKKEN12-20183125168251925694227866206120
BAKKEN11-20182831592317586948927476169897480
BAKKEN10-20182120861205895678815646242312868
  • 34797, 1,253, Kraken, The Kraken 24-13 10H, Epping, t10/18; cum 115K 2/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192456925754155961327375990
BAKKEN1-20193117882178502748130962182500
BAKKEN12-20183131274312834809034083251710
BAKKEN11-20182432961332025173429232171968954
BAKKEN10-20182126977266254851620233316916709
  • 34798,1,023, Kraken, The Kraken LE 24-13 1TFH, Brooklyn, t10/18; cum 113K 2/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20192410210102421703022084114040
BAKKEN1-20193121255211882938336984219790
BAKKEN12-20183128493285102404731950237930
BAKKEN11-20182732818329695480130444179629380
BAKKEN10-20182120014197534476315010272211933

"Big Oil Is Becoming Big Shale" -- FT -- Making America Great -- April 12, 2019


Later, 9:26 a.m. Central Time: infill bolt-ons would be JAG, MTDR.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Later, 9:25 a.m. Central Time: Occidental is competing for Anadarko; will offer higher bid.

Original Post  

"... the advances made by Exxon and Chevron show that the era of Big Shale is only really getting started." -- FT

Link here: Financial Times.

Link here: SeekingAlpha.





Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: whoo-hoo!


Pre-market:
  • NOG: up 1.5%
    JAG: not trading
From the linked FT article above:

It is not often that routine corporate updates can rattle nations but that is exactly what happened this week.

ExxonMobil and Chevron, the two largest US energy supermajors, both raised their guidance for the amount of oil they expect to squeeze out of the Permian Basin, the heartland of the US shale boom, over the next five years.

In the process they sent a signal to Opec countries that any hopes that the shale revolution might falter are grossly misplaced.

The scale of the revisions are hard to overstate, with “Big Oil” increasingly becoming “Big Shale”. Operators are bringing expertise and efficiency earned over decades in far-flung corners of the globe to an area previously dominated by wildcatters and domestically-focused US oil companies.

By 2024 Exxon and Chevron now expect to be pumping almost 2m barrels a day combined from the Permian, which straddles Texas and New Mexico. That is 60 per cent more than previously forecast.

The Permian as a whole will already produce about 4m b/d this year, meaning that this one region — if it were an Opec country — would be the third-largest producer in the cartel, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

For Opec this spells trouble. Members, including Saudi Arabia, have consistently downplayed shale’s longevity, arguing that higher prices are still needed to foster investment in production and avoid a future supply crunch. It is a line of reasoning still favoured by many oil company chief executives too. But it looks, at best, outdated.

While the shale industry has undoubtedly relied on a gusher of Wall Street money to grow, often leaving investors disappointed by its ability to generate cash, Big Oil is now leading the way not just in getting production up, but in getting costs down.

Chevron says that returns on its shale investments are now “north of 30 per cent”, even with lower prices. Exxon says it could make a return of 10 per cent even if oil fell to $35 a barrel.

For Opec this means the days when members could rely on $100 crude to top up government coffers look like an anomaly, rather than a mean to which the market will one day revert.

From twitter after the deal was announced:

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; Chevron To Buy Anadarko -- April 12, 2019

Let the mergers begin: Chevron to buy Anadarko.

We'll do the numbers later.

Kraken: for more on the Kraken wells coming off the confidential list today, see this post.


Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, April 12, 2019 -- we missed "Fridaythethirteenth" by one day; out-of-town guests arrive: 41 wells for the month; 41 wells for the quarter
  • 35270, SI/NC, Petroshale, Bear Chase 1TFH, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 34810, 2,154, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 1TFH, Epping, t11/18; cum 140K 2/19;
  • 34809, 1,684, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 2H, Epping, t11/18; cum 105K 2/19;
  • 34808, 828, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 3TFH, Epping, t11/18; cum 86K 2/19;
  • 34807, 1.423, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 4H, Epping, t11/18; cum 136K 2/19;
  • 34806, 929, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 13-24 5TFH, Epping, t11/18; cum 98K 2/19;
  • 34318, SI/NC, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23H, North Fork, no production data,
  • 33686, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Berner 6-19-18-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
Active rigs:

$64.544/12/201904/12/201804/12/201704/12/201604/12/2015
Active Rigs6359513093

RBN Energy: petrochemical demand, exports add complexity to propane markets.
Until just a few years ago, the rise and fall of U.S. propane inventories each year was driven in large part by winter weather: the colder the temperatures in the major propane-consuming areas, the bigger the draw on stocks. Things have gotten much more complicated lately, though, thanks to a combination of rapid NGL production growth, a generally booming propane export market, and the vagaries of petchem margins. Now, to get a handle on propane stocks, you not only need to be able to forecast the weather, you also need to monitor international propane arbs and steam cracker economics — oh, and crude prices too, because they have a significant effect on NGL output and propane supply. Today, we discuss the many factors that impact propane inventories and prices in this sometimes chaotic market.