For Newbies: What The Bakken Is All About -- March 20, 2019

For newbies: this is what the Bakken is all about --

• drill, complete
• a pump at about 6 months
• work-overs as needed
• mini-re-fracks
• neighboring fracks
• major re-fracks
• repeat

For the archives.

All four Paul wells on this pad were re-fracked in 2/18:

• 25306, 2,460, QEP, Paul 1-26-35BH, Grail, t12/13; cum 441K 1/19; huge jump in production 3/18; 
• 25305, 2,243, QEP, Paul 2-26-35BH, Grail, t12/13; cum 393K 1/19; huge jump in 2/18; 
• 23278, 2,143, QEP, Paul 1-26/35H, Grail, Three Forks, t1/14; cum 281K 1/19; huge jump in 3/18; re-fracked 2/18; 30 stages; about 9 million lbs; 
• 25304, 2,257, QEP, Paul 2-26-35TH, Grail, t12/13; cum 338K 1/19;

Production profile for two of these wells for the past year or so.

#25305:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	30	6828	6823	3886	18435	12728	5556
BAKKEN	12-2018	23	4879	4868	4828	12250	9343	2781
BAKKEN	11-2018	28	5642	5663	2803	18752	13881	4671
BAKKEN	10-2018	30	8977	9063	5271	27504	24894	2396
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	10704	10561	6113	26891	19742	7099
BAKKEN	8-2018	24	8807	8980	4734	24680	16614	8066
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	14002	14053	7431	35997	33115	2882
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	17023	17060	9770	39183	34129	5054
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	22665	22615	13847	48496	43636	4860
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	31451	31286	23611	55051	49663	5388
BAKKEN	3-2018	18	16359	16348	24549	24435	21866	2569
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	2	0	931	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	3	336	283	126	815	789	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	2702	2933	908	6163	6013	0

#25304:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	27	7983	7895	8877	21345	14737	6433
BAKKEN	12-2018	16	3591	3708	3093	10380	7917	2356
BAKKEN	11-2018	29	8096	8022	6987	24569	18187	6120
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	8169	8235	7616	24014	21735	2092
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	9293	9154	8672	21663	15904	5719
BAKKEN	8-2018	22	6718	6862	5992	14983	10086	4897
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	11247	11250	9727	24556	22590	1966
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	11859	11896	11064	25900	22559	3341
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	16438	16377	15863	31570	28406	3164
BAKKEN	4-2018	29	20602	20657	22491	34540	31160	3380
BAKKEN	3-2018	30	24956	24779	43316	37711	33746	3965
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	1	0	829	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	3	209	182	112	615	596	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1813	1979	753	4072	3973	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1909	1809	784	3068	2999	9

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Midnight Fugue 

I could watch this all night. I watch this one with the audio on MUTE.  If you want to see the entire clip, at YouTube , search: soldier surprise son taekwondo:


I had never heard this song (below) until this evening. Don't ask me how I came across it. The video is pretty cheesy, and the song is just as cheesy , but if one is in the right mindset, this will bring tears to your eyes. It did for me. Our son-in-law served fifteen years in the US Navy, a submariner.

Sailor, Petula Clark
Interestingly, I would prefer listening to this than Petula Clark's Downtown.

Midnight fugue, here.

After midnight I start with a random song on YouTube.com which leads me to another and then another. Later, sometimes hours later, I end up somewhere not knowing how I got there. Often I am in a fugue state. I am sure I am not alone.

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Copeland's Famous New Orleans Restaurant, Southlake, TX

I cannot say enough about the hospitality shown by this restaurant today. The food was incredible.

But what made it memorable: our hostess, Amber, and our server, Brad.

The tip: slightly less than 50% of the fare.

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The Book Page

Following comments received regarding the "military-themed" videos above, I posted the following from the book I was reading at the time, The Comanche Code Talkers Of World War II, William C. Meadows, c. 2002. I forget the specifics, but I believe Meadows (the author) says he spoke to each and everyone of the Comanche code talker except one who had passed away.

In pre-reservation times, the Comanches are better viewed as a number of linguistically and culturally related tribes [generally described as divisions], as they never comprised a single political or geographically centralized entity until after their  entrance onto a reservation.

After more than 150 years of warfare, competition with numerous other tribes and Anglo nations, and disease, the last remaining autonomous bands of Comanches were forced onto the collective Kiowa, Comanche, and Apache Reservation in Southwestern Oklahoma in 1875.

What followed were decades of status as governmental wards, forced reduction of their lands, inadequate food, mandatory boarding schools, denial of citizenship and civil rights, continual broken treaties and legal agreements, forced allotment of their remaining lands, and a Anglo-based assimilationist war against their culture, religion, and language.

Sixty-five years later the United States Army came seeking the aid of the Comanches and their language in preparation for World War II. The Comanches had numerous reasons to resent the Taiboo' [Anglos]. But in spite of all the past experiences and the often paternalist treatment of the Comanches by the government, when the call of duty came, they, like other Native American populations patriotically joined  in the defense of America.
Prior to their recruitment, the Comanches had no idea of the ultimately unique role that they and their language would play in the outcome of the war, There was no way they could have known that they would be selected to carry out highly specialized communications service that would be unique in the European campaign. The Comanches represent a population whose loyalty to their people and the American country was unswerving in its devotion, and they were unhesitant in their decision to make the necessary sacrifices called for in the Second World War. -- p. xii.

One needs to be reminded that not all Americans thought we needed to be involved in a European war (Lindbergh comes to mind; he was pro-Nazi Germany and against the US going to war with Germany). And with regard to the Pacific theater, there were Americans against going to war.

 

Making America Great -- One Barrel At A Time -- March 20, 2019

Links here and here.

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Lone Star State of Mind, Nanci Griffith

Sitting in Denver, sipping California wine,  I've got all night to remember [you];  I'm in a lone star state of mind. Wow.

New York Develops Plan To Ease Natural Gas Shortage -- March 20, 2019

My understanding is that New York has put US Representative Occasional-Cortex in charge of coming up with a plan to solve New York's natural gas shortage.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. In addition, with regard to some subjects I have a hidden agenda and am seriously biased making some items absolutely untrue.

The state has set some guidelines:

• no new pipelines
• no transporting of flammable gas by rail
• no fracking
• no new processing plants

Occasional-Cortex, herself, has asked that:

• she be allowed to appoint five additional members to the NY state EPA;
• the state commissions a statewide environmental study to be authored by her campaign manager; and,
• removal of all transmission lines that can be seen from the highway and/or run through forested land

Link here at ArgusMedia.  Wow, I wasn't too far off. Look at the "fix":

The state of New York will invest $250 million in renewable energy and efficiency measures in response to a natural gas service moratorium in Westchester County that stems from a lack of sufficient pipeline capacity.

Utility Con Edison in January said that after 15 March it would no longer accept applications for new natural gas connections in the majority of its service area in Westchester County, New York, because of pipeline constraints. The New York Department of Public Service (DPS) in February said it would review natural gas supply and demand in the county to develop recommendations.

The DPS, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and the New York Power Authority late last week announced a plan to address the shortage, including:

• $165 million in grants to Con Edison for heat pumps and increasing gas efficiency for its residential, commercial and industrial customers; 

• $32 million in financing services for customers to retrofit heating systems with alternatives to natural gas; 

• $28 million for grants to new customers to use alternatives to natural gas for heating and cooling; and, 

• $25 million to improve energy efficiency to lower overall demand.

Wow, the pain continues. Perhaps even more so. Not one item will solve the problem within the next ten years. Wow, if you have a house and a natural gas hook-up in Westchester County, New York, yor house has just doubled in value.

National "AG" Day -- March 20, 2019

From a reader, thank you very much:

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Celebrating Our 42nd Wedding Anniversary

Copeland's Famous New Orleans Restaurant, Southlake, TX

The "Big Al's" cheesecake is quite different from "standard" cheesecakes and is made on the premises. All the other cheesecakes are flown in from the Copeland Restaurant in New Orleans.

The Road To Colombia -- March 20, 2019

From SeekingAlpha, Colombia rejects Conoco's bid to frack.

• Colombia's government has nixed two environmental licensing requests made by ConocoPhillips  and Canacol Energy for fracking projects in northern Cesar province
• the companies reportedly failed to meet minimum conditions for the Piranga project, while the Plata project raised possible water protection concerns
• a commission convened by the government to study non-conventional exploration methods has recommended strict monitoring of three pilot projects to determine whether fracking techniques should be widely used
• COP holds an 80% stake in the projects and Canacol the remaining 20%

Or as the Colombian president said, "Let them eat cake." 

NOG Up Over 9%; WTI Over $60; Seven New Permits -- March 20, 2019

Best question / observation all week: over at Twitter, "crudehead/#OOTT" is perhaps one of the best analysts. On the other hand, the Reuters London-based oil analyst is good, but he has a decidedly EU attitude toward America. I had wondered about this myself. Where is all the heavy oil the US refiners need coming from?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

WTI: why I love to blog. I posted early this morning that WTI was likely to hit $60 by the end of the day. Whoo-hoo! Morgan Stanley sees WTI at $75 later this summer.

• D: down 33 cents;
• Tesla, up $6.44/share
• XLNX, down 53 cents;
• UNP, up about 88 cents;
• AAPL, up $2.12
• RDS-B, up 1.32%;
• CVX, flat
  
• COP, up 0.71%;
• BRK-B, down about a percent;
• NOG, up over 9%;
• OAS, up almost 4%;
• EOG, up over 3.5%;
• EW, down ever so slightly;
• JAG, down slightly in pre-market trading; we don't often see JAG trading pre-market;

Active rigs:

$60.12	3/20/2019	03/20/2018	03/20/2017	03/20/2016	03/20/2015
Active Rigs	65	58	49	32	107

Seven new permits: pending

• Operators: MRO (4); Equinor (2); EOG
• Fields: Antelope-Sanish (McKenzie); Last Chance (Williams); Ross (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in section 35-152-94 in Antelope-Sanish;
• Equinor has permits for a 2-well Jake pad in lot 4/section 2-153-100, Last Chance oil field
• EOG has a permit for a Clearwater well in Ross oil field, lot 1/section 31-157-90;

Three permits renewed:

• Sinclair: three Crosby Creek permits in Dunn County.

Crude Oil Inventories Drop Almost 10 Million Bbls -- EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- March 20, 2019

Weekly numbers: link here --

WTI: $59.14 -- down 15 cents, just prior to release of today's data

• right after release of data: $59.57, up 28 cents
• before the day is over, unless there is offsetting news, the tea leaves suggest we will go over $60/bbl soon

Link here.

• US crude oil inventories: decreases an astounding 9.6 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories: now at 439.5 million bbls; now about 2% below the five-year average
• refineries: at 88.9% operating capacity
• crude oil imports up slightly, up 186,000 bopd; averaging 6.9 million bopd
• crude oil imports, averaging about 6.6 million bopd, is 11% less than the same period last year 

Re-balancing: still won't happen in my lifetime.

Week	Date	Change w-o-w	In Storage	Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9	N/A
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5	N/A
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2	N/A
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0	Never at this rate
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5	Never at this rate
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4	Never at this rate
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4	Never at this rate
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7	A long, long time
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0	Won’t happen i my lifetime
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.8	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5	Won’t happen in my lifetime
		-0.1

The CLR Weydahl Three Forks, First Bench, Well -- Corral Creek -- March 20, 2019

Note: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The CLR Weydahl wells are tracked here.

CLR reports a huge Three Forks, first bench well, today:

• 32812, 2,098, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, 55 stages; 14.6 million lbs; Corral Creek, t12/18; cum 102K 1/19; spacing unit: four sections/2560 acres; from FracFocus: 12.9 million gallons of water, 87.447% water by mass;

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	50710	50662	40735	55579	51600	3979
BAKKEN	12-2018	24	49147	49069	35930	49943	42585	7358
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2018	5	2471	2471	3494	2077	0	2077

The 49,147 bbls in 24 days extrapolates to 61,434 bbls in a 30-day month.

From the file report:

• spud date: January 19, 2017
• TD date: January 30, 2017 
• within CLR's "Rocket prospect"
• KOP: proposed 10,838 feet raised to 10,819 feet at time of drilling
• drilling of the curve began on the morning of January 21st; completed "just over 24 hours later"
• landed the curve 7.5 feet above the target; 6.5 feet above the final ideal target of 11,273 feet, still just above the base of the selected zone, as opposed to a couple feet underneath as listed in the prognosis
• Bakken shale collapse issues have been encountered in this region, and angles of intercept and shale exposure footage have become important dta
• CLR engineers have determined that entering the shales should be done at angles nor moe than 65 - 68 degrees of inclination
• on this well: no shale collapse issues were encountered
• the lateral was drilled/completed in a single run
• "The MWD electromagnetic tool was used for the entirety of the lateral, with no switch to the backup, traditional mud pulse system necessary. This is the first time in the experience of this geology team on this rig to experience this, and is thus suitably remarkable for comment.
• gas levels were relatively low, ranging from 200 - 1000 units of background overall: the gas buster was not utilized on this well
• it was determined initially that the ideal target would be approximately 20' thick, beginning 10' below the Three Forks top, and extending to 30' below the same reference point
• this was later adjusted to 16.5' thick, after moving the top down to 15.5' under the Three Forks top, to provide extra buffer against a shale strike
• much of the lateral footage was drilled in the 6' between the markers

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The Book Page

Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution, Nick Lane, c. 2009.

The author mentions in the introduction an enzyme that is found in all living organisms, from bacteria to man. The enzyme, however, differs in molecular structure -- amino acid sequence -- across the spectrum of living organisms.

But, now with x-ray crystallography it turns out that regardless of minor changes in the amino acid sequence, the "structures" of the variants are "superimposable, so similar to each other that each fold and crevice, each niche and protrusion, is faithfully replicated in the other, in all three dimensions.

Despite a large number of building blocks being replaced over time, the overall shape and structure of the molecule -- ad thus its function -- has been preserved throughout evolution, as if it were a catheral building in stone, and rebuilt from within using bricks, without losing its grand architecture."

But there is more: it turns out that one version of the enzyme is more flexible than the other. The flexible version is found in bacteria in the frozen Antarctic, allowing "movement" despite the frost. The more rigid version is found in bacteria living near super-hot oceanic vents; the "stiffness" protects against the constant buffering of the energy from the boiling vents.

The ten "inventions":

• the origin of life
• DNA
• photosynthesis
• the complex cell
• sex
• movement
• sight
• hot blood
• consciousness
• death

A Moveable Feast -- March 20, 2019

This was really, really cool.

Last night, while driving the middle granddaughter to her soccer practice, I had an opportunity (which I took) to explain to her how the "Easter date" is determined.

We were driving west, directly in front of us, the full moon. And it was huge.

So, today is the spring equinox. [equi = equal; nox = night: night will be equal length in duration as day]

Last night/today: a full moon.

So, Easter:

• the first Sunday, after
• the first full moon, after
• the spring equinox

So, the church looked at the solar calendar to determine the spring equinox, easy-peasy. March 20. Every year. At least in modern times.

Then they pull out the lunar calendar to find the first full moon after March 20 ("on" March 20 is not after March 20) and this year, the lunar calendar shows that the next full moon will be Friday, April 19th, easy-peasy. [March 20 or March 21? See below.]

Therefore, two days later, Easter will fall on Sunday, April 21, 2019. Easy-peasy.

The next question, of course, is how did the "first Sunday after the first full moon after the spring equinox" come into being?

First, one clarification: the Easter date is set in relation to the March Equinox. However, the church counts March 21 as the equinox date in the ecclesiastical calendar, rather than the actual date, which varies between March 19, 20, and 21.

Now, how did "they" come up with the first Sunday after ...? From this link:

According to the Bible, Jesus Christ's death and resurrection occurred around the time of the Jewish Passover, which was celebrated on the first Full Moon following the vernal equinox. 

This soon led to Christians celebrating Easter on different dates. At the end of the 2nd century, some churches celebrated Easter on the day of the Passover, while others celebrated it on the following Sunday.

In 325CE the Council of Nicaea established that Easter would be held on the first Sunday after the first Full Moon occurring on or after the vernal equinox.

From that point forward, the Easter date depended on the ecclesiastical approximation of March 21 for the vernal equinox. Easter is delayed by 1 week if the Full Moon is on Sunday, which decreases the chances of it falling on the same day as the Jewish Passover. The council’s ruling is contrary to the Quartodecimans, a group of Christians who celebrated Easter on the day of the Full Moon, 14 days into the month.

Technically, that last part is unnecessary or redundant, that part about "Easter is delayed one week...." The Council said the first Sunday after the full moon.... although I can see why this might have caused confusion -- but enough for now .. this dead horse has been whipped enough ...

Aha, a reader asks ... how did the Jews come to celebrate Passover related to the lunar calendar? It's a long, long story but suffice to say this: it's based on the Samaritan calendar, and calculation of the Samaritan calendar has historically been a secret reserved to the priestly family alone -- at this link.

Perhaps more at this link, which will provide an etymology for "Easter."

Wednesday, March 20, 2019, T+77, Part 1 -- Kamala Harris To Visit Grapevine, TX

Kamala Harris: first visit to Texas will be to the city where we live -- Grapevine, TX. Grapevine is at the apex of the triangle formed by Grapevine, Dallas, and Ft Worth. Dallas is in Dallas County, pretty much a blue county; regardless of who runs against Trump in 2020, Dallas County will vote for his opponent. Ft Worth and Grapevine are both in Tarrant County. Right now, Tarrant County is a toss-up, and it's very, very likely that Tarrant County would also vote for a Trump opponent. Kamala Harris is hoping to flip this county. She won't have time to visit the border 

Busy, busy day, but not shale related:

• Why did the owner of the New England Patriots visit a strip mall spa rather than a high-end, low-risk alternative? Texas talk radio came up with plausible explanation; more later
• NOAA: "last month among the eight warmest Februarys on record." Link here.
• how to solve global warming overnight. Link here.  
• Arctic ice refuses to melt. Link here. 
• NYC restaurant recession? Link here.

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Bellotto At The Kimbell Museum Of Art 

In Fort Worth Texas

The other day we saw the Bellotto exhibit at the Kimbell. Bellotto painted landscapes and cityscapes of Dresden in the late 18th century. 

From wiki:

Bernardo Bellotto, (c. 1721/2 – 17 November 1780), was an Italian urban landscape painter or vedutista, and printmaker in etching famous for his vedute of European cities (Dresden, Vienna, Turin and Warsaw). 

He was the pupil and nephew of the famous Giovanni Antonio Canal Canaletto and sometimes used the latter's illustrious name, signing himself as Bernardo Canaletto. 

In Germany and Poland, Bellotto called himself by his uncle's name, Canaletto. Bellotto's style was characterized by elaborate representation of architectural and natural vistas, and by the specific quality of each place's lighting. It is plausible that Bellotto, and other Venetian masters of vedute, may have used the camera obscura in order to achieve superior precision of urban views. 

I've never had a "good feeling / understanding" of German history -- the Holy Roman Empire made it more confusing for me. This map at the Bellotto exhibit was very, very helpful:

 Meanwhile, another photo of Sophia working on her project after viewing the exhibit: