Next time someone tells you the weather is getting worse due to AGW, show them this, from Mark Perry, link here.
The chart shows the annual strong/violent (categories F3, F4 and F5) tornado count in the US back to 1954 when the NOAA started tracking these data.
Last year there were only 12 tornadoes in the US, all category F3 (strong), which is the lowest annual tornado count for the US in more than 60 years of modern records.
Further, it was the first year ever in the US that there wasn’t a single violent tornado in the violent F4 or F5 categories.
Tornadoes only killed 10 Americans in 2018, the fewest since unofficial records began in 1875 during the administration of President Ulysses S. Grant.
The previous record low year for tornado deaths was 1910, when 12 people died, according to data from NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. In an “average” year, 69 people are killed by tornadoes in the U.S., the Weather Channel said.
Meanwhile, as reported earlier, crops yields are getting better in the midwest, and farmers are planting more corn and soybeans farther north and farther west.
One wonders if we've been asking the wrong questions ...
By the way, if you go to the link above, be sure to look at median income of various ethnic groups in the US. It might surprise you.
During our stay in Santa Fe last week, I saw these beams everywhere, thought about them often, but never had a "push" to research them. Then I found a nice passage about vigas in Jennet Conant's book on J. Robert Oppenheimer, p.57.
From wiki:
Vigas are wooden beams used in the traditional adobe architecture of the American Southwest, especially New Mexico.
In this type of construction, the vigas are the main structural members carrying the weight of the roof to the load-bearing exterior walls. The exposed beam ends projecting from the outside of the wall are a defining characteristic of Spanish Colonial Architecture in New Mexico and often replicated in modern Pueblo Revival architecture. Usually the vigas are simply peeled logs with a minimum of woodworking. In traditional buildings, the vigas support latillas (laths) which are placed crosswise and upon which the adobe roof is laid, often with intermediate layers of brush or soil.
The latillas may be hewn boards, or in more rustic buildings, simply peeled branches.
These building techniques date back to the Ancestral Puebloan peoples, and vigas (or holes left where the vigas have deteriorated) are visible in many of their surviving buildings.
Since the modern Pueblo Revival style was popularized in the 1920s and 1930s, vigas are typically used for ornamental rather than structural purposes. Noted architect John Gaw Meem incorporated ornamental vigas into many of his designs. Contemporary construction in Santa Fe, New Mexico, which is controlled by stringent building codes, typically incorporates ornamental vigas, although the latest revision of the residential building code gives credit for structural vigas.
Older structures that have been reconstructed (e.g. the Palace of the Governors in Santa Fe) may contain both structural and ornamental vigas.
***************************
Ski School, Sophia, Age Four Years Old, Angel Fire, New Mexico
Later, 9:29 p.m. CT: see first comment. Reader suggests neighboring frack may have damaged #22891.
Original Post
Wow, CLR is really getting "picky." This seems to have been a nice well in an area with a lot of activity, but for whatever reason, CLR decided to abandon the well (AB). It's not permanently abandoned so it could still come back but production was actually pretty good when it was taken off line back in 2017. It had weathered the "Saudi Surge" (2014 - 2016) but for some reason CLR "AB'd" it.
The well:
22891, 947, CLR, Monroe 1-2H, Banks, t8/12; cum 307K 7/17; put on a pump, 9/13;
It looks like there might be a nice halo effect in Elidah oil field. The wells:
34146, 50, BR, Sanvan 1A-MBH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542
31771, 77, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days;
Look at #19712 and #21542.
#19712 has only been back on line for two days, so too early to tell.
But look at #21542, the well:
21542, 2,978, BR, Ivan 11-29TFH, Elidah, t7/12; cum 218K 11/18; this well is well west of the Sanvan wells but there are other wells in the area that may be active (still on conf) -- API: 33-053-03788; according to FracFocus, this well was last fracked in 2012; not recently re-fracked; tell me again about the Hubbert peak oil theory:
Some of the following was taken from Chesto over at The Boston Globe:
Apple pays the price for its expensive phones:
It was only a matter of time, in an age of $1,000 iPhones, that
consumers would start saying "no more." And when they did, as tech
columnist Hiawatha Bray writes, it was in Chinese.
Delta's warning rattles airline investors: The Atlanta-based carrier said fare revenue didn't climb as much as expected during the holiday season.
National Grid, steelworkers unions reach truce:
There's a preliminary agreement in place to end the lockout that has
slowed work at National Grid for more than six months. The details
aren't public yet. But one thing's for sure: It will take a long time to
clear out the pending backlog of gas hookups.
ISO New England is doing just fine, thank you. Very little need for Canadian hydro (very expensive) and less than 1% coal. Opportunities: this might be the year car prices come way down. Certainly, EVs are coming down in price. Tesla has dropped their prices and GM likely to follow. Of course, the Federal tax breaks for both companies are being phased out now that both compnies have reached "the threshold." With impeachment on the minds of US House members Congress may not have the attention span to work on extending the "EV threshold." If not an EV, the Nissan line-up is enticing. Especially the Rogue. EV sales data is almost complete for calendar year 2018. If you have 22 minutes with nothing else to do:
Market: I never thought I would have another chance to buy shares in some companies at such a great price. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. It's up to you. Make up your mind. Do what you're gonna do. It's all so clear. It was an open book test as soon as Jerome "Jay" Powell went ahead and raised "rates" a third time when things were looking to go south, anyway.
Recently, the oldest actively producing well, #35, was put on the ABlist.
35, 503, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Devonian unit H-310, Beaver Lodge, t4/52; cum 216K 7/17;
I had to go through a lot of permits to find the current oldest actively producing wells. These appear to be the five oldest actively producing wells. They are vertical wells with a depth of around 9,000 - 12,000 feet. They are Madison wells, and the oldest will turn 65 years old this year.
These Madison wells have each taken 50+ years to produce 500,000 bbls.
The wells:
498, 292, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-132 HR, Tioga, t7/54; cum 534K 11/18;
554, 408, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-128 HR, Tioga, t8/54; cum 279K 11/18;
629, 159, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit O-151 HR, Tioga, t9/54, cum 783K 11/18;
637, 350, Rim Operating, Hofflund 18HR, Hofflund, t12/54; cum 392K 11/18;
774, 156, Petro-Hunt, CMSU D0216, Charlson, t6/55; cum 474K 11/18;
With regard to #498:
there is a sundry form dated June 1, 2018, asking to "PA" the well, but, then, there follows
a sundry form saying the well was returned to production 6/19/2018
the well had been taken off line 3/16 due to low oil prices (per company's sundry form) but then returned to production 6/18, as noted, with recent production as follows:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
MADISON
11-2018
30
0
18
0
0
0
0
MADISON
10-2018
30
43
40
404
2107
2107
0
MADISON
9-2018
30
55
66
224
1220
1220
0
MADISON
8-2018
31
156
194
6968
3042
3042
0
MADISON
7-2018
31
136
83
1979
4913
4913
0
MADISON
6-2018
11
31
20
709
2791
2791
0
MADISON
5-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
The other wells:
#554 has only been off-line for a few consecutive months, and that was back in 1999.
$629 has a similar production profile to $554.
#637 is a much better well recently but was offline for several years, from 12/89 to 5/05 -- by the way, this would be a conventional well that disproves Hubberts peak oil theory; just saying
#774 has a similar production profile as the first two above
By the way, you ask, how is Mr Woodrow Star doing? See this post. Mr Star is alive and kicking, over 60 years old, now --
1987, 150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105431 million bbls11/18;
Having said that, it looks dismal -- there were no "runs" in November, 2018, the first time there have no runs in six months.
Comments: CLR has permits for 4-well Wahpeto pad in 16-152-99; WPX has permits for a 3-well Badger pad in 23-149-94; Petroshale has a permit in 9-148-94 for a Helen MBH well; and, Berenergy has a permit for (most likely) a Madison well in 30-139-81;
One permit renewed:
Whiting: a Rennerfeldt permit in Williams County
Change of ownership: 24 permits/wells
from Williston Exploration to Medora Minerals, LLC
in southwestern North Dakota
most of them in Billings County
older permits; as old as ##14994; most recent, #25347
Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
31779, 509, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13-2PH, Park, t11/18; cum 8K over 12 days;
33891, 2,554, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-2, Banks, t11/18; cum 16K over 14 days;
30633, 1,902, Hess, SC-Hoving-LW-154-98-1003H-1, Truax, t11/18; cum 14K over 16 days;
33892, 2,018, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-3, Banks, t11/18; cum 28K over 20 days;
34169, 1,426, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-4, Truax, t11/18; cum 17K over 21 days;
33893, 1,740, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-4, Banks, t11/18; cum 27K over 26 days;
34168, 1,450, Hess, SC-Hoving-154-98-1003H-3, Truax, t11/18; cum 24K over 28 days;
34146, 50, BR, Sanvan 1A-MBH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542 -- see this post;
31771, 77, BR, Sanvan 8-1-29UTFH-ULW, Elidah, t11/18; cum 5K over 11 days; #19712, #21542 -- see this post;
33837, 1,625, Abraxas, Yellowstone 7H, North Fork, t8/18; cum 157K 11/18; #18708 -- absolutely no improvement; unusual to say the least with all the neighboring activity;
*****************************
Production Profile For That Abraxas Yellowstone Well
The well:
33837, 1,625, Abraxas, Yellowstone 7H, North Fork, t8/18; cum 157K 11/18;
November 1, 2018: note the very, very small amounts of
water used to frack these new Brandvik/Weydahl wells; it will be
interesting to see their initial production.
Most are stillSI/NC, but production runs are starting to show. Almost across the board, these wells are extrapolating to 50,000 bbls/well the first full month. Older wells are showing jump in production.
32815, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik
9-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 4/1/18 -
4/27/2018; 548,091 gallons of water; 88% water by weight;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
23557
23439
28429
29619
26976
2643
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
4
1330
1330
898
1393
0
1393
32816, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 10-25H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
23557
23439
28429
29619
26976
2643
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2018
4
1330
1330
898
1393
0
1393
32817, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
22348
22236
35767
28138
25627
2511
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
3
948
948
2057
936
0
936
32818, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
22348
22236
35767
28138
25627
2511
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
3
948
948
2057
936
0
936
32819, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
29717
29568
15656
19229
17513
1716
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
3
1207
1207
1810
866
0
866
30365, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 5-25H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
30366,SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 6-25H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
30367, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 7-25H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18;
30362, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018, 679,000 gallons of water; 87.5% water by weight;
30363, SI/NC, CLR, State
Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, 9/18; FracFocus,
6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 662,920 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight;
30364, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 7-36H2, Corral Creek, starting to produce; Frac Focus, 6/18/2018 - 7/11/2018; 453,948 gallons of water; 87.8% water by weight;
32812, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 8-36H1, Corral Creek, starting to produce, FracFocus, 743,606 gallons of water; 87.4% water by weight;
32813, SI/NC, CLR, State
Weydahl 9-36H, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18; FracFocus,
5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 749,087 gallons of water (no typo); 87.3% water by
weight;
***** 32814, SI/NC, CLR, Brandvik 8-25H1, Corral Creek, beginning to produce, 9/18;
FracFocus, 5/23/2018 - 6/17/18; 568,755 gallons of water (no typo);
87.4% water by weight;
***** 32818, SI/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek,
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
22348
22236
35767
28138
25627
2511
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
3
948
948
2057
936
0
936
32819, SI/NC, CLR, State
Weydahl 11-36H, Corral Creek, starting to produce, FracFocus, 3/1/2018 -
3/29/2018; 767,682 gallons of water; 87.8% water by weight;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
14
29717
29568
15656
19229
17513
1716
BAKKEN
10-2018
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
3
1207
1207
1810
866
0
866
23785, 400, CLR, State Weydahl 3-36H1, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 317K 5/18; production has reached a plateau; ready for a mini-frack or a new full frack; waiting to see result of neighboring fracks; off-line as of 5/18; huge jump in production in 4/18; off line as of 6/18;
23786, 691, CLR, State Weydahl 2-36H, Corral Creek, t8/13; cum 316K 2/18 ; ditto, #23785; off-line since 2/18; remains off line as of 11/18;
29555, 1,497, CLR, State Weydahl 4-36H1, Corral Creek, t7/15; cum 359K 11/18; this
well is clearly better than the two wells drilled in 2013; two years
younger than the 2013 wells and it had already surpassed the production
of each of the 2013 wells; not yet a candidate for a mini-frack or a new
full frack; waiting to see result of neighboring fracks; see full production profile at this post. API: 33-025-02680. According to FracFocus, last fracked in June, 2015.
