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Yellen; remains concerned the economy could overheat. A nice worry to have. The Fed can prevent that.
Rare: I don't see this often, but oil stocks are moving in pre-market. DNR up 5%.
GM: pops 10% in pre-market trading. See "Cramer note" below.
EPD: beats; shares up 2%.
EOG: live webcast, Friday, November 2, 2018; 9:00 a.m.
central time.
Consumer confidence:
US consumer confidence surged in October to 18-year high. At almost 138, it is at the highest level since September, 2000.
BP:
doubles profit; best quarterly results in over five years; may be able to pay for BHP acquisition in all cash.
Cramer: last night he said the"fiscal year" for many mutual funds ends October 31. Is the fairly regular "October surprise" "manufactured" by Wall Street?
EIA: weekly crude oil inventory report --
link --
- US crude oil inventories, increased, confirming API data yesterday: increased by 3.2 million bbls; at 426 million bbls, 2% above the five-year average for this time of yeaf
- refineries are at operating well off their capacity; at 89.4%
- gasoline production was slightly above my threshold of 10 million bbls per day
- distillate fuel production right at my threshold of 5.0 million bbls per day
- total products supplies up 5.4% from same period last year
- gasoline product supplied relatively unchanged
- distillate fuel supplied increased by a whopping 14.2% from same period last week
- jet fuel product supplied down almost 4% from same four-week period last year
Gasoline demand: I'm almost afraid to look.
Link here.
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Back to the Bakken
Insert sad face here: there are no wells coming off confidential list today.
Active rigs:
| $66.44→ | 10/31/2018 | 10/31/2017 | 10/31/2016 | 10/31/2015 | 10/31/2014 |
|---|
| Active Rigs | 68 | 53 | 34 | 70 | 193 |
RBN Energy:
a new drill down report on Northeast gas takeaway capacity and basis.
The U.S. Northeast natural gas market has had a volatile few weeks.
Regional gas production has surged, averaging 30.4 Bcf/d in the second
half of October (2018), up 800 MMcf/d from the first half of the month
and up nearly 1 Bcf/d from the September average. Normally (for the past
several years), those kinds of supply gains, particularly in a shoulder
month and during maintenance season, would have one result:
Marcellus/Utica prices taking a nosedive. But that’s not exactly the
case this year. Instead, Appalachian spot prices have been on a wild
ride the past few weeks, swinging from barely $1.00/MMBtu (or more than
$2.00/MMBtu below Henry Hub) on October 8, to over $3.00 (just $0.12
under Henry) on October 24 — the highest levels seen at this time of
year since 2013, both in terms of outright prices and basis
differentials to Henry Hub. The catalyst is nearly 3 Bcf/d of new
takeaway capacity from the growing producing region that has been added
in recent weeks, including, most recently, partial service on a
brand-new route on Enbridge/DTE Energy’s 1.5-Bcf/d NEXUS Gas
Transmission. What does this latest round of expansions and the
resulting basis strength mean for the Northeast and its downstream gas
markets? In today’s blog, we discuss highlights from our new 26-page
report on evolving Northeast gas takeaway capacity utilization and
additions, and their effects on price relationships.
For years, the U.S. Northeast gas market has been defined by rapid
production growth, perpetual transportation constraints, distressed
supply prices and stranded producers — a topic we’ve covered extensively
in the RBN blogosphere over the years. These market conditions have had
a domino effect on the broader U.S. gas market — turning a
traditionally demand-driven market into a net gas supplier for the U.S.,
flipping regional prices on their heads and prompting massive midstream
investment to reverse gas pipelines so they flow out of the burgeoning
Marcellus/Utica shale.
