Those hedges were likely secured last year, when oil traded at lower
levels. The shale companies locked in those positions as a risk
management strategy, guarding against the possibility of a meltdown in
prices. If the economy had crashed or OPEC decided to flood the market
once again for some reason, and oil prices fell back below $50 per
barrel this year, those companies would have been protected.
As it
happened, however, prices surged in the first half of this year.
WTI
surpassed $70 per barrel in the second quarter, rising to its highest
point in more than three years.
Some shale drillers were stuck selling
their oil for prices in the mid-$50s. Anadarko said that it missed out
on nearly $300 million in pre-tax revenue because it was locked into
hedges.
NASCAR Finish was fantastic! Chase Eliott wins on his own, as #2 Truex runs out of gas with finish line in sight. Chase Elliott ran out of gas just after crossing the finish line. Jimmy Johnson, #48, pushed Chase Elliott back to victory lane. Wow.
The Bureau of Land
Management is seeking public input on what action to take after a Dunn
County rancher built a bridge across the Little Missouri River that the
agency says trespasses on public land.
The
east end of the single-lane bridge northwest of Killdeer is on land
owned by rancher Wylie Bice. But the west end of the bridge is on an
isolated 76-acre tract of land managed by the BLM.
In
addition, the BLM says an unpaved access road, a water settling pond
and portions of two alfalfa fields are on public lands without
permission. In all, nearly 13 acres of public land are affected.
One has to read deep into the article learn that this bridge was built in 2013, sustained some damage in 2014 due to flooding/high waters, but was repaired and raise.
All the rancher's own expense.
Original Post
93 degrees now; forecast to hit 99 degrees.
I forgot my safari hat -- it's going to be a hot bike ride home.
Something to get me ready for the bike ride:
Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie, Baccara
Wow, there's a lot of good stuff on the blog today. Enjoy.
Good luck to all.
Oh, one last look, what's going on at oilprice and Yahoo!Finance?
**********************************************
The Sports Page
I have no idea how well Tiger Woods is playing relative to his history.
I do know that the PGA and the networks hope that Tiger Woods continues to play well enough to keep making the cuts.
Today, Tiger finished tied for 33rd at the Bridgestone. #40 out of the 71 that made the cut. Mickelson, 26. #30 out of the 71that made the cut. But look at this: Jordan Spieth, 60th. #62 out of 72 that made the cut. Only ten of those who made the cut played worse than Spieth.
Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy are tied for #1. Ricky Fowler, tied for #8.
First stage: first stage just completed. Joey Logano, who finished at the same race track yesterday, crashed and DNF'd -- only the second time he has finished dead last while racing for NASCAR.
Later: I am really, really thrilled for Chase Elliott. Good for him.
********************************
MLB
If I had all the money in the world, I would be at Fenway Park tonight watching the New York Yankess playing the Boston Red Sox. But I don't and I'm not.
February 25, 2019: more of these wells are coming off the confidential list.
October 16, 2018: it looks like Enerplus is starting to report its "cat" wells (Hyena, Cheetah, etc).
Original Post
Most recent:
33774, 788, Enerplus, Caracal 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, 33 stages; 6.2 million lbs; t9/18; cum 262K 6/22; cum 316K 3/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
11-2018
9131
5789
10-2018
16525
11198
9-2018
16575
5170
I believe the chronological number is 31. I could be wrong.
The Enerplus cat wells.
Section 8-147-93, Moccasin Creek oil field:
31130, 2,184, Enerplus, Persian 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 536K 6/22; cum 558K 12/22; cum 599K 3/24/
31126, 817, Enerplus, Bengal 147-93-06A-07H, Moccasin Creek, t5/18; cum 412K 6/21; off line 9/19; back on line 10/19; cum 448K 6/22; cum 464K 12/22; cum 498K 3/24;
31128, 1,515, Enerplus, Tabby 147-93-06A-07H TF, Moccasin Creek, t5/18; cum 247K 6/21; cum 270K 6/22; cum 280K12/22; cum 303K 3/24;
31127, 2,247, Enerplus, Manx 148-93-31D-30H TF, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 255K 6/21; cum 280K 6/22; cum 293K 12/22; cum 320K 3/24;
31129, 3,204, Enerplus, Siamese 148-93-31D-30H, Moccasin Creek, t4/18; cum 427K 6/21; cum 473K 6/22; cum 495K 12/22; cum 540K 3/24;
31125, 2,388, Enerplus, Calico 148-93-31D-30H, Moccasin Creek, t5/18; cum 433K 6/21; cum 470K 6/22; cum 483K 12/22; cum 516K 3/24 -- just returning back on line.
Section 30-149-93, Mandaree oil field:
33774, 788, Enerplus, Caracal 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 223K 6/21; cum 285K 12/22; cum 316 K 3/24;
33775, 1,644, Enerplus, Serval 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, 8 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass, t9/18; cum 356K 6/21; cum 391K 12/22; cum 412K 3/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
12-2018
46555
35861
11-2018
24686
15649
10-2018
24508
16608
9-2018
42082
13126
8-2018
760
436
33776, 1,379, Enerplus, Leopard 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, t9/18; cum 181K 6/21; cum 216K 12/22; cum 233K 3/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
11-2018
10529
6675
10-2018
17130
11608
9-2018
27604
8610
34413, 1,538, Enerplus, Honey Badger 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree,10 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass, t9/18; cum 324K 6/21; cum 362K 12/22; cum 390K 3/24;
Date
OilRuns
MCF Sold
11-2018
17039
10801
10-2018
24317
16479
9-2018
38020
11859
8-2018
2666
1530
24234, 1,335, Enerplus, Hyena 149-93-30A-31H-TF, 33 stages; 6.2 million lbs; Mandaree, t9/18; cum 159K 6/21; cum 196K 12/22; cum 220K 3/24;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
27
12190
12215
12230
9751
7743
1538
BAKKEN
10-2018
31
17408
17466
17554
24371
11836
11975
BAKKEN
9-2018
29
26660
26505
36048
37324
8267
28575
BAKKEN
8-2018
1
677
613
1141
947
352
591
24235, 2,373, Enerplus, Cheetah 149-93-30A-31H, 32 stages; 5.8 million lbs, Mandaree, t9/19; cum 362K 6/21; cum 412K 12/22; cum 444K 4/24; just came back on line;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
11-2018
25
20965
21016
11731
16772
13322
2787
BAKKEN
10-2018
31
30976
31049
14042
37172
21041
15251
BAKKEN
9-2018
30
43052
43502
33285
51662
13569
37333
BAKKEN
8-2018
7
8564
7753
18237
10276
4449
5367
*****************************************
Production profiles for selected Enerplus cat wells:
31130:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
29
28898
28727
18987
20229
12477
7116
BAKKEN
8-2018
25
25684
25914
19015
16694
15938
150
BAKKEN
7-2018
28
23976
23603
16418
16544
15938
0
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
37223
37341
25177
24195
21731
2139
BAKKEN
5-2018
30
60297
60517
54767
39193
32967
6053
BAKKEN
4-2018
13
1129
473
20693
12186
12013
0
31126:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
29
29956
29841
18089
17973
12960
4358
BAKKEN
8-2018
29
30329
30462
21115
16682
15536
591
BAKKEN
7-2018
26
23342
23008
15298
16091
15536
0
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
39869
39790
24981
23497
23157
0
BAKKEN
5-2018
22
36319
36059
41047
19976
19644
332
31129:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2018
29
35845
35906
17224
28677
22952
4972
BAKKEN
8-2018
28
31448
31553
16667
23585
14485
8596
BAKKEN
7-2018
23
23895
23752
10962
17921
14485
2932
BAKKEN
6-2018
30
30199
30156
14752
22650
18388
3978
BAKKEN
5-2018
31
45775
46280
26982
34331
25769
8328
BAKKEN
4-2018
13
1297
473
20693
18296
18062
0
Cat's in the Cradle, Henry Chapin
**********************************
A Note To The Granddaughters
I received a nice note from a reader who sent me photos and comments about attending a donnieandmarieosmond concert in Las Vegas. It was a very, very good note and brought back a lot of memories. Perhaps out of context this note won't make sense, but this was my reply, unedited, and not ready for prime time:
1. When I saw the first photo of the gentleman with Marie Osborn, I thought that Donnie had really changed. LOL.
2. You and your wife really get around; good for you.
3.
I've gone to very few live shows in Las Vegas -- and that was decades
ago. They really put on incredible shows out there. When I went decades
ago, the shows were much less expensive, much more intimate, and a lot
less commercial (of course, I'm quite naive) but now, I no can longer
handle crowds, so I don't go to shows. I was spoiled by my last years in
the USAF when as a commander, I always had reserved seats and escorts
to take me where I needed to go.
4. Interestingly, I am
less interested in live shows these days, and much more interested in
the back story. Thus, one reason why I find three movies/television
series so compelling: Mulholland Drive, Twin Peaks, and Birdman(The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).
5.
I was assigned to the premier fighter squadron in the USAF at the time
"Top Gun" came out. The fighter pilots talked a lot about the movie.
They might not admit it, but USAF pilots do have great respect for US
Navy pilots. There is no question in my mind the gap between a US Navy
pilot and a USAF pilot.
6. I took my dad to see "Top Gun"
figuring it was the best way to let him know of my experiences with the
fighter squadron, the 22nd Tactical Fighter Squadron, an F-15 squadron,
Bitburg (Germany) Air Base.
October 4, 2024: the well names need to be sorted out.
34341, conf-->loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-1H, Grinnell/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-12H, Sand Creek, very, very nice well; 55K first full month; I either made an error or something has changed; I haven't figured this out yet (7/21), first production, 5/21; t--; cum 122K 7/21;
34333, conf-->loc/NC, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-10H, Grinnell/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-3H, Sand Creek, very, very nice well; 55K first full month; I either made an error or something has changed; I haven't figured this out yet (7/21), first production, 5/21; t--; cum 83K 7/21;
34332, conf-->loc/NC, Ovintiv/Kestrel 154-96-33-28-2H, Grinnell/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-11H, Sand Creek, very, very nice well; 55K first full month; I either made an error or something has changed; I haven't figured this out yet (7/21), first production, 5/21; t--; cum 112K 7/21;
34331, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-11H, Grinnell/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-210H, Sand Creek, very, very nice well; 55K first full month; I either made an error or something has changed; I haven't figured this out yet (7/21); remains conf 7/21;
34330, 3,184, Ovintiv/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-2H, Sand Creek, 62 stages, 9.9 million lbs, t4/18; cum 133K 7/18; see below; cum 542K 7/21;
34329, 2,203, Ovintiv/Newfield, Sorenson Federal 153-96-4-9-1H, Sand Creek, very, very nice well; 39K first full month; see below; t4/18; cum 84K 7/18; off line 1/21; remains off line 4/21; back on line 6/21; nice production; cum 377K 7/21;
Jafurah field: 200 trillion cubic feet (compare with reserve numbers in original post)
February 3, 2020: UAE discovery; Jebel Ali reservoir; 80 trillion cubic feet;
May 3, 2019: Beetaloo Basin, Australia, could add 500 trillion cubic feet; see this post;
December 6, 2018: USGS 2018 Survey of The Permian -- 46 billion bbls of crude oil; 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and 20 billion bbls of NGLs.
Original Post
30-second elevator speech when it comes to natural gas: there is so much natural gas in the world, that as a commodity, it's all about free market capitalism and governmental policies (at all levels) that will determine winners (suppliers/consumers) and losers (suppliers/consumers) for the next fifty years.
For those in the know, I doubt there is anything new here, but some nice data points for future reference.
US natural gas production (flat over the past three years):
2017: 71.1 billion cubic feet per day
2016: 71.1 billion cubic feet per day
2015: 71.6 billion cubic feet per day
accounts for 20% of world's total natural gas production
Global history:
until the 1980s: US dominated global natural gas production
1980s: Russia took the lead
past 50 years: the Middle East has grown its natural gas production at a much faster rate, and is on pace to take the lead in the next decade (2020s)
US history:
natural gas production in decline until the fracking boom which began in the middle of the last decade (the Bakken boom began in Montana, 2000; in North Dakota, in 2007)
production from the US grown by an astounding 51% from 2005 to 2015 -- the years of the Bakken boom -- pushed the US back into the global lead (memo to self: note to Jane Nielson)
US exports, LNG:
2017: 1.7 bcfpd; about 2.4% of US production
Asia Pacific: received 41% of this production
Mexico: received 22%
US exports, pipeline:
6.3 bcfpd, or 8.9% of US daily production
Mexico: accounts fo 64% of the total
exports to Mexico are growing rapidly; last week, RBN Energy reported that exports to Mexico hit 5.0 bcfpd for the first time ever
****************************
Reserves
So, with all that, I assumed US reserves looked huge compared to the rest of the world, but this is simply astounding.
Reserves:
Middle East: 2.8 quadrillion cubic feet = 2,080 trillion cubic feet (quadrillion is 10^15; trillion is 10^12)
US: 309 trillion cubic feet (but see below)
I've long lost the bubble on global natural gas reserves (and I'm sure the reserves are currently way under-estimated) but back in 2016, this post:
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. Numbers rounded.
Natural gas reserves according to BP/wiki, 2013 - 2014 (US estimate as
of December 2013). Top five countries:
341.1 trillion cubic feet; increased by 5% over 2016
Pennsylvania: added 6.1 tcf natural gas reserves, the largest net increase of all states in 2016 as a result of the Marcellus)
next largest net gains, after Pennsylvania: Oklahoma (3.7 tcf); Ohio (3.1 tcf); SCOOP, STACK, Utica
natural gas from shale as a percentage of total production: increased from 54% in 2015 to 62% in 2016
additions exceeded consumption by 30%
Discrepancies, observations, and further comments:
As noted above, the official EIA estimates for the US: 341 trillion cubic feet, but I think those numbers are "way low."
And from the numbers above, the numbers are all over the place (from the official EIA estimates to estimates by others.
Another source suggests the Marcellus-Utica could produce a quadrillion cubic feet -- which greatly exceeds current EIA estimates of total US natural gas reserves.
From NaturalGasIntel, undated but probably in 2015:
The Utica Shale is a massive formation that lies beneath portions of Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Tennessee, Virginia and a part of Canada.
In a September 2012 report, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Utica has a recoverable potential of 940 million barrels of oil, and approximately 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
That estimate, though, has proved conservative at best. With far more drill bits having proved-up the play in Ohio, a West Virginia University-led study released in mid-2015 estimated that the Utica contains more than 20 times as much technically recoverable natural gas resources than previously thought when the USGS released its report (see Shale Daily, July 14, 2015).
