Nobel Peace Prize, 2019 (posted at 11:06 a.m. Central Time, March 29, 2018):
- shared: Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, and DJT (remember: only three can share a Nobel Prize -- so it's possible, Kim Jong Un, POTUS, and Moon Jae-in)
Price differentials in the Permian Basin are widening at a rapid pace.
The discount for Midland crude to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing has widened by over $4/bbl since the beginning of March and the discount to Magellan East Houston (MEH) crude was over $7/bbl yesterday (April 3, 2018).
Permian production is increasing at a breakneck pace as new players are entering the scene. Private equity-backed exploration and production companies (E&Ps) are no longer just acquiring and flipping acreage, as they are being forced to prove their assets are profitable and can generate a return on investment.
The combination of large drilling plans from the majors and new production from these smaller operators — with no new pipeline takeaway capacity in sight — has sent Permian crude pricing into a tailspin. Today, we begin a new series on the recent slide in Permian prices, how new producer strategies are contributing to it, and what it means for pipeline space, trucking and midstream infrastructure.We saw the same thing in the Bakken during the boom.
Pipeline capacity is currently constrained out of the Permian, reflected in wide price discounts for Midland WTI crude. Midland WTI is averaging at a $4.33/b discount to Cushing WTI so far in April, compared to a 93 cents/b premium in January, S&P Global Platts data shows.If Permian goes to "5," the Bakken goes to "2."
WTI Midland moved higher on the news of additional takeaway capacity Monday. WTI Midland was assessed at a $3.70/b discount to Cushing WTI, up 35 cents/b on the day.
S&P Global Platts Analytics is projecting crude oil output in the Permian to reach 5.266 million b/d by 2020, compared with 3.657 million b/d in 2018.
North Dakota regulators are keeping current benchmarks for reducing wasteful flaring of excess natural gas but are giving industry more flexibility to comply.
The North Dakota Industrial Commission voted unanimously Tuesday to adopt changes to the gas capture policy, many of which were recommended by an industry task force.“They’re saying they will get to 88 percent by Nov. 1,” said Lynn Helms, director of the Department of Mineral Resources.
The changes expand some of the caveats that allow industry to be in compliance with the gas capture policy even if a company’s flaring rate exceeds the benchmark.
For example, industry can exclude flared volumes from the first 14 days of production. The revised policy increases that to the first 60 days.
Bottom line:In addition, the commission will change how it treats flared gas outside of the Bakken core where infrastructure is underdeveloped and gas is considered “stranded.” Allowing some temporary exemptions for stranded gas aims to incentivize pipeline development in those areas, Helms said.
| $68.47↑↑↑ | 4/18/2018 | 04/18/2017 | 04/18/2016 | 04/18/2015 | 04/18/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 59 | 51 | 29 | 93 | 188 |
Newfield has always been one of the better operators with respect to well design. It has had other issues, but it has been ahead of the technological curve. Well design and oil production is just one of many variables to consider, but it is extremely important in seeing where the industry is going. If an operator continues to outperform wells of other operators adjacent to the location, we see the under performing operators mimic that design.
This is the EOG Resources effect. It was doing huge, sand heavy frac jobs in areas operators said had too high of pressures. EOG proved the industry (or at least a large number of competitors wrong) wasn't looking at the situation correctly. The physics changed with the engineering, and we are still seeing its effect.
Newfield and EOG (EOG was still a great deal better) had outperformed in ND when the first horizontals targeting the middle Bakken were taking place. Newfield was working NE McKenzie, while EOG had a Parshall Field focus. Early results do not prove it will continue this into the future, but it has been consistent.
In ND, Newfield is the best operator based on oil production over the first 12 months of well life. This is based on locations completed in 2017. We pulled the data on 803 horizontals from 15 publicly traded companies. Continental is the most active followed by Exxon, and Whiting.
Mineral owners and their attorneys will be busy for the next two months reviewing a new study of the historical channel of the Missouri River, a report that aims to resolve disputes over oil and gas ownership.
Consultant Wenck Associates presented Tuesday an overview of its study of the ordinary high water mark of the Missouri River as it existed before the construction of the Garrison Dam, which created Lake Sakakawea.
The full survey and supporting materials will be made public by Friday at www.dmr.nd.gov.
LSD, micro-dosing, 24/7: yes, actually happening in Silicon Valley. The story "broke" in 2017, but is now hitting mainstream media, posted April 18, 2018.I missed this a year ago, but better late than never. Huge, huge "thank you" to Scott Adams.
Millennials. Lots of talk these past few weeks about "millennials." Time to re-look at the "definitions. From an earlier post:
I had forgotten the "definition" of "Generation Z" but vaguely recalled blogging about it:
Definitions:
- iGen, generation Z, centennials: 2000 -
- oldest iGen: 2000 - 2005 (my thoughts -- teens in 2018)
- middle iGen: 2006 - 2011 (my thoughts -- middle schoolers in 2018)
- younger iGen: 2012 - (my thoughts -- pre-K in 2018)
- millennials, generation Y, 1984 - 2000
- younger millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1992 - 2000
- older millennials (part of generation Y, children of baby boomers): 1984 - 1991 (in 2017: 26 - 34)
Birth years important to me:
- generation X: 1965 - 1983 (no precise dates, late baby boomers)
- baby boomers: 1946 - 1964
Definitions (from this site)
- iGen, generation Z, centennials: 1996 --
- millennials or generation Y: 1977 - 1995 (18-year span)
- generation X: 1965 - 1976 (11-year span)
- baby boomers: 1946 - 1964 (18-year span)
- traditionalists or silent generation: born 1945 and before
Zhōngguó is the most common sinitic name for China in modern times.
The first appearance of 中國 on an artifact was in the Western Zhou on a ritual vessel known as He zun.
It is formed by combining the characters zhōng (中) meaning "central" or "middle", and guó (國/国), representing "state" or "states"; in contemporary usage, "nation".
Prior to the Qin unification of China "Zhongguo" referred to the "Central States"; the connotation was the primacy of a culturally distinct core area, centered on the Yellow River valley, as distinguished from the tribal periphery.
In later periods, however, "Zhongguo" was not used in this sense.
Dynastic names were used for the state in Imperial China and concepts of the state aside from the ruling dynasty were little understood.
Rather, the country was called by the name of the dynasty, such as "Han dynasty" (Hanchao 漢朝), "Tang dynasty" (Tangchao 唐朝), "The Great Ming" (Daming 大明), "The Great Qing" (Daqing 大清), as the case might be. Until the 19th century when the international system came to require a common legal language, there was no need for a fixed or unique name.Second:
The English translation of "Zhongguo" as the "Middle Kingdom" entered European languages through the Portuguese in the 16th century and became popular in the mid 19th century.
By the mid 20th century the term was thoroughly entrenched in the English language to reflect the Western view of China as the inwards looking Middle Kingdom, or more accurately the Central Kingdom.
Endymion Wilkinson points out that the Chinese were not unique in thinking of their country as central, although China was the only culture to use the concept for their name.
The term Zhongguo was also not commonly used as a name for China until quite recently, nor did it mean the "Middle Kingdom" to the Chinese, or even have the same meaning throughout the course of history.For our marine biologist, from wiki:
A polynya is an area of open water surrounded by sea ice.
It is now used as geographical term for an area of unfrozen sea within the ice pack.
It is a loanword from Russian: полынья (polynya) Russian pronunciation: [pəɫɨˈnʲja], which refers to a natural ice hole, and was adopted in the 19th century by polar explorers to describe navigable portions of the sea.
In past decades, for example, some polynyas, such as the Weddell Polynya, have lasted over multiple winters (1974–1976).
| $67.76↑↑ | 4/18/2018 | 04/18/2017 | 04/18/2016 | 04/18/2015 | 04/18/2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 59 | 51 | 29 | 93 | 188 |