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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #23 -- Wednesday, February 14, 2018

On January 29, 2018, I posted this map and the story:

From Bloomberg today: as first LNG tanker from Siberia awaits landing in Boston, a second ship may be coming.
Today, I see, Mark Perry and the Boston Globe have been reading the blog. Even The Boston Globe  gets it. Mark's map:


Hess With Four More Weyrauch Permits; Four Permits "Reinstated" -- February 14, 2018

Active rigs:

$60.982/14/201802/14/201702/14/201602/14/201502/14/2014
Active Rigs573641137185

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (4); MRO
  • Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Reunion Bay (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for another 4-well Weyrauch pad in NENE 30-154-93
Two permits renewed:
  • BTA renewed two Agate permits in Golden Valley
For the record, not unexpected, dry hole:
  • 34244, UND EERC, BNI 1, Oliver County
Four permits reinstated (I don't know if this is a new category, or replacing "renewed"; perhaps these are permits that were expired but operator were able to get them reinstated):
  • SM Energy reports four permits reinstated -- a Maria permit, a Bob permit, a Laura permit, and a Marlyn permit, all in divide County
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Happy Valentine's Day

My wife loves tulips and they are just coming into season.


Weekly Petroleum Report; Re-Balancing Now Up To 27 Weeks; Third Consecutive Week That It Has Increased -- February 14, 2018

Weekly petroleum report: AEI crude oil inventory data:
  • US crude oil inventories: up another 1.8 million bbls (this is the third consecutive week that inventories have increased)
  • now at 422.1 million bbls -- supposedly in the lower half of the average range for this time of year; I've always considered 350 million bbls about the average 
  • refineries operated at 89.8% of capacity; well off the norm
  • gasoline production decreased; again, below 10 million b/d
  • distillate fuel production also decreased; again, below 5 million b/d
  • total products supplied surged 7% from the same period last year; averaging almost 21 million bbls/day
  • gasoline product supplies averaged 9.0 million b/d, up by 6.5% from same period last year
  • distillate fuel product supplied average over 4 million b/d; up 6.3% from same time last year
  • jet fuel up almost 4% compared to same period last year
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Re-Balancing

Later: surprise, surprise -- this is why predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand. I'm not following the business news for now (now = February 1, 2018 -- February 28, 2018) so I can't explain this, but WTI popped this afternoon, up 2.65%; up $1.56; and, now, back over $60.75. Who wudda guessed? Certainly not me. 

Third consecutive week that "time to re-balance" has increased: now up to 27 weeks.  In graphic below, to keep the chart from getting too long, I've "hidden" the first 21 weeks.

WTI actually increased a bit after the report came out. This suggests that $60 is about the current floor for WTI, but tea leaves certainly suggest WTI could trend toward $55.

Summer driving season just starting to appear on the horizon; that should help. Gasoline demand is at this link. This week's graphic has not yet been posted (as of 12:07 p.m. CT.

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 22
September 27, 2017
1.8
471.0
46
Week 23
October 4, 2017
6.0
465.0
41
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37
Week 33
December 13, 2017
5.1
443.0
36
Week 34
December 20, 2017
6.5
436.5
30
Week 35
December 28, 2017
4.6
431.9
28
Week 36
January 4, 2018
7.4
424.5
25
Week 37
January 10, 2018
4.9
419.5
23
Week 38
January 18, 2018
6.9
412.7
20
Week 39
January 24, 2018
1.1
411.6
20
Week 40
January 31, 2018
-6.8
418.4
24
Week 41
February 7, 2018
-1.9
420.3
26
Week 42
February 14, 2018
-1.8
422.1
27

CLR Reports Two Huge Monroe Wells -- February 14, 2018

The CLR Monroe wells are tracked elsewhere; this page will not be updated. These two wells came off the confidential list today. Note the number of stages; the amount of proppant; and the total depth of these two wells:
Wednesday, February 14, 2018:
  • 33142, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8C-6-5H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 33005, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope, no production data,
  • 30253, 3,225, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; 78 stages; 11 million lbs; large; TD = 24,847 feet; t10/17; cum 148K 12/17; (#22891)
  • 30251, 2,313, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months; 78 stages; 16.6 million lbs; large; TD = 24,956 feet; t10/17; cum 129K 12/17; (#22891)

WTI Solidly Below $60 -- February 14, 2018

Saudi Arabia says it will continue to work on reducing crude oil stockpiles. Saudi says it will ship 100,000 bopd less in March, compared to February. We'll see.


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.392/14/201802/14/201702/14/201602/14/201502/14/2014
Active Rigs583641137185

RBN Energy: Implications of the mercurial 2017 Asian butane market, part 2.