The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 02/14/18

Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #23 -- Wednesday, February 14, 2018

On January 29, 2018, I posted this map and the story:

From Bloomberg today: as first LNG tanker from Siberia awaits landing in Boston, a second ship may be coming.

Today, I see, Mark Perry and the Boston Globe have been reading the blog. Even The Boston Globe gets it. Mark's map:

Hess With Four More Weyrauch Permits; Four Permits "Reinstated" -- February 14, 2018

Active rigs:

$60.98↑	2/14/2018	02/14/2017	02/14/2016	02/14/2015	02/14/2014
Active Rigs	57	36	41	137	185

Five new permits:

Operators: Hess (4); MRO
Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); Reunion Bay (McKenzie)
Comments: Hess has permits for another 4-well Weyrauch pad in NENE 30-154-93

Two permits renewed:

BTA renewed two Agate permits in Golden Valley

For the record, not unexpected, dry hole:

34244, UND EERC, BNI 1, Oliver County

Four permits reinstated (I don't know if this is a new category, or replacing "renewed"; perhaps these are permits that were expired but operator were able to get them reinstated):

SM Energy reports four permits reinstated -- a Maria permit, a Bob permit, a Laura permit, and a Marlyn permit, all in divide County

************************************

Happy Valentine's Day

My wife loves tulips and they are just coming into season.

Weekly Petroleum Report; Re-Balancing Now Up To 27 Weeks; Third Consecutive Week That It Has Increased -- February 14, 2018

Weekly petroleum report: AEI crude oil inventory data:

US crude oil inventories: up another 1.8 million bbls (this is the third consecutive week that inventories have increased)
now at 422.1 million bbls -- supposedly in the lower half of the average range for this time of year; I've always considered 350 million bbls about the average
refineries operated at 89.8% of capacity; well off the norm
gasoline production decreased; again, below 10 million b/d
distillate fuel production also decreased; again, below 5 million b/d
total products supplied surged 7% from the same period last year; averaging almost 21 million bbls/day
gasoline product supplies averaged 9.0 million b/d, up by 6.5% from same period last year
distillate fuel product supplied average over 4 million b/d; up 6.3% from same time last year
jet fuel up almost 4% compared to same period last year

***************************

Re-Balancing

Later: surprise, surprise -- this is why predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand. I'm not following the business news for now (now = February 1, 2018 -- February 28, 2018) so I can't explain this, but WTI popped this afternoon, up 2.65%; up $1.56; and, now, back over $60.75. Who wudda guessed? Certainly not me.

Third consecutive week that "time to re-balance" has increased: now up to 27 weeks. In graphic below, to keep the chart from getting too long, I've "hidden" the first 21 weeks.

WTI actually increased a bit after the report came out. This suggests that $60 is about the current floor for WTI, but tea leaves certainly suggest WTI could trend toward $55.

Summer driving season just starting to appear on the horizon; that should help. Gasoline demand is at this link. This week's graphic has not yet been posted (as of 12:07 p.m. CT.

Week	Date	Drawdown	Storage	Weeks to RB
Week 0	Apr 26, 2017		529.0	180
Week 22	September 27, 2017	1.8	471.0	46
Week 23	October 4, 2017	6.0	465.0	41
Week 24	October 12, 2017	2.8	462.2	40
Week 25	October 18, 2017	5.7	456.5	37
Week 26	October 25, 2017	-0.9	457.3	39
Week 27	November 1, 2017	2.4	454.9	38
Week 28	November 8, 2017	-2.2	457.1	42
Week 29	November 15, 2017	1.9	459.0	43
Week 30	November 22, 2017	1.9	457.1	42
Week 31	November 29, 2017	3.4	453.7	41
Week 32	December 6, 2017	5.6	448.1	37
Week 33	December 13, 2017	5.1	443.0	36
Week 34	December 20, 2017	6.5	436.5	30
Week 35	December 28, 2017	4.6	431.9	28
Week 36	January 4, 2018	7.4	424.5	25
Week 37	January 10, 2018	4.9	419.5	23
Week 38	January 18, 2018	6.9	412.7	20
Week 39	January 24, 2018	1.1	411.6	20
Week 40	January 31, 2018	-6.8	418.4	24
Week 41	February 7, 2018	-1.9	420.3	26
Week 42	February 14, 2018	-1.8	422.1	27

CLR Reports Two Huge Monroe Wells -- February 14, 2018

The CLR Monroe wells are tracked elsewhere; this page will not be updated. These two wells came off the confidential list today. Note the number of stages; the amount of proppant; and the total depth of these two wells:
Wednesday, February 14, 2018:

33142, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Thompson 153-95-8C-6-5H, Charlson, no production data,
33005, SI/NC, Petroshale, Petroshale US 3H, Antelope, no production data,
30253, 3,225, CLR, Monroe 6-2H, Banks, a huge well; first two full months, 50K+; 150K in first three months; 78 stages; 11 million lbs; large; TD = 24,847 feet; t10/17; cum 148K 12/17; (#22891)
30251, 2,313, CLR, Monroe 7-2H, Banks, a huge well; two of first three months, close to 50K+/month; about 130K first three months; 78 stages; 16.6 million lbs; large; TD = 24,956 feet; t10/17; cum 129K 12/17; (#22891)

WTI Solidly Below $60 -- February 14, 2018

Saudi Arabia says it will continue to work on reducing crude oil stockpiles. Saudi says it will ship 100,000 bopd less in March, compared to February. We'll see.

******************************

Back to the Bakken