NiSource: NiSource apparently plunged 7.9% today. Barron's did not have an explanation. I know nothing about the company but a quick google search certainly suggested a number of concerns these past few years involving management. Be that as it may, this is probably the real story: natural gas prices "plunged" today based on fundamentals (supply/demand -- the weather is not cooperating). Even with today's "plunge," the shares are paying only 2.65% -- at that rate might as well buy bonds. Speaking of which, with the Fed raising rates, utilities are selling off. SRE is another example.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
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Trump Rally (Global Synchronization Rally)
After a nice run-up in the market today, right now futures suggest more of the same tomorrow:
Later, 8:19 p.m. ET: it looks like the above numbers were a "hangover" from today's action. Now, the Dow futures are almost flat.
I was wondering when Mike Filloon was going to get to Oasis; they have had some great wells. Also, now that Oasis has cracked the code on the Bakken, maybe they felt they could do the same in the Permian.
OAS has shown significant improvements in production per location from 2015 to 2016 and later.
Some improvements are due to high grading but the upside attributed to his only cover a small percentage of wells.
Lateral
lengths have not changed from 2015 to present, but production has
increased by 53 KBO and natural gas production has tripled.
OAS has difficulties ahead due to leverage but it will be interesting to see how that will translate in the Delaware Basin.
From the article:
Oasis has become a very good operator. It has kept costs down and
improved production per foot significantly over the past few years. We
pulled the production data of 91 Oasis locations in North Dakota
completed after January 1st of 2016. Four horizontals produced over 250
KBO in 12 months of well life. Only one location was a one-mile lateral.
The rest were between 9,000 and 10,700 feet.
In summary, OAS is performing very well and enhanced completions are
pushing production per foot higher. The increase of 53 KBO is very good,
and natural gas production has tripled. This was done with comparable
lateral lengths. OAS is a risky play and a name we do not own. The
Delaware purchase has been interpreted as bearish, but the geology is
much better than any it currently holds.
OAS has been an excellent
operator and done an excellent job keeping costs down. It will be
interesting to see how this plays out in west Texas. We do not own OAS,
and still think it has a difficult road ahead. The leverage is
concerning, but if oil prices spike it could see significant upside.
There is considerable risk going forward.
The new storage and pipeline infrastructure in the United States is so significant that it is likely to have a transformational impact on the crude oil market for years to come. These changes are likely to spur more trading in US domestic grades and will magnify the role of WTI has global benchmark.
The catalyst for this transformation has been the sharp rise in US oil production, and more recently, the lifting of the export ban on US crude that occurred at the end of 2015. In order for the US to turn itself from a net importer to exporter, several key pipelines had to be reversed. At the same time, oil refiners and storage operators along the Gulf Coast set about increasing the amount of available storage capacity. A number of new terminals are in the process of being built along the US Gulf Coast to handle the rising number of ships arriving to load cruse destined for the international markets. These infrastructure changes will transform the US into the marginal supplier of the world than a regional supplier. This will allow producers to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities that pre sent themselves beyond the US shores.
There are several subsections:
US crude oil production proves resilient
US exports are increasing
expansion of crude oil infrastructure in the US Gulf Coast
Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend, Monday
Monday, December 18, 2017: 62 for the month; 172 for the quarter
33491, SI/NC, MRO, Shoots USA 41-2H, Antelope, no production data,
33331, 1,602, QEP, ND Levang 5-16-21BHD, Grail, 51 stages; 5 million lbs, t7/17; cum 72K 10/17;
30237, 1,782, CLR, Alfsvaag 4-31H, Crazy Man Creek, 10 stages; 14.8 million lbs, t8/17; cum 38K 10/17; "well partially completed; will return once repairs are made"
Sunday, December 17, 2017: 59 for the month; 169 for the quarter
33492, SI/NC, Mamie USA 21-1TFH, Antelope, no production data,
32393, 226, Whiting, Froehlich 21-29-2PH, Bell, Three Forks, 45 stages; 9.4 million lbs, t8/17; cum 24K 10/17;
Saturday, December 16, 2017: 57 for the month; 167 for the quarter
32884, 578, Liberty Resources, Nelson 158-95-20-4TFH, McGregor, t6/17; cum 28K 10/17; Three Forks, 13 stages; 3.3 million lbs;
32865,SI/NC, MRO, DeMaray USA 41-2TFH, Antelope, no production data,
32696, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18B-4H, Charlson, no production data,
31632, 1,762, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 42-23 5T, North Tobacco Garden, Three Fork B1, 50 stages; 10 million lbs; t7/17; cum 130K 10/17;
31631, 2,083, Oasis, Lawlar N 5199 42-23 4B, North Tobacco Garden; 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t7/17; cum 161K 10/17;
There will be a lot of economic data released this week prior to Christmas weekend at the end of the week.
Single-family housing starts, permits hit 10-year high. Posted December 19, 2017. Link here.
Home builder sentiment at the highest since July, 1999. Link here.
Wow, wow, wow! Existing home sales for November, 2017, jumped 5.6%; expectation? 0.7% Posted December 20, 2017.
The market since Trump has been elected, including a list of stocks that have doubled since his election.
All three indices are likely to close at new records today. Some confusion on CNBC but apparently if the Dow 30 sets a new record today, the index will have set a record for the number of times the Dow has hit a new high in one year.
And on CNBC so far this morning (December 18, 2017), the phrase "President Trump" has not been mentioned. If it has, it has not been mentioned in connection with the stock market rally. The stock rally is due to "synchronous global growth."
"If you got a business, you didn't build that," What A Doofus
******************************************** A Strong Obama Supporter
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
Apple: runs out of AirPods. Can't keep up with demand. Posted December 19, 2017.
April 10, 2019: it appears Slawson has completed / is completing the Jore Federal wells. See this post.
May 4, 2018: map updated. Compare this map with the map in the original post.
Original Post
The Slawson/White Butte Jore Federal wells.
The other wells in that section:
28747, 2,592, Slawson, Jore Federal 2-12H, Clarks Creek, one section, 21 stages 4.8 million lbs, t9/14; cum 202K 5/19; shut in most of 6/17 - 10/17; probably due to neighboring wells being fracked? Back on line as of 4/19;
31194, 2,390, Slawson, Jore Federal 1-12H, Clarks Creek, t2/19; cum 9K first seven days;
31193, SI/NC, Slawson, Jore Federal 13-12TF2H, Clarks Creek, still SI/NC, but huge production, 3/19; FracFocus says it was fracked 11/18;
31192, 1,017, Slawson, Jore Federal 6-12TFH, t2/19; cum 13K after 17 days:
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
5-2019
13
10793
10236
9183
15607
0
14385
BAKKEN
4-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
3-2019
1
8
177
0
16
0
10
BAKKEN
2-2019
3
2681
2394
5875
3820
0
3521
31191, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 24-12TF3H, no production data, but it looks like it might have been completed 5/19;
31190, conf, Slawson, Jore Federal 14-12TF2H, no production data,
The new permits from December 11, 2017:
34372, conf, 23-12TF3H,
34373, conf, 11-12TFH,
34374, conf, 15-12TF2H,
34375, conf, 3-12H,
34376, conf, 22-12TF3H,
34377, conf, 10-12TFH
34378, conf, 4-12H,
34379, conf, 16-12TF2H
The new permits from December 13, 2017:
34386, conf, 7-12TFH,
34387, conf, 19-12TF3H,
34388, conf, 6-12H,
34389, conf, 18-12TF2H,
34390, conf, 8-12TFH,
34391, conf, 20-12TF3H,
34392, conf, 5-12H,
34393, conf, 17-12TF2H,
34394, conf, 21-12TF3H,
34395, conf, 9-12TFH,
So far: 24 wells planned for this one section
middle Bakken: 6 wells
TF, 1st bench: 6 wells
TF, 2nd bench: 6 wells
TF, 3rd bench: 6 wells
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The graphic for illustrative purposes only;
not drawn to scale and there may be errors on the map.
Note: the NDIC map server appears to be slightly "degraded" this morning. The permit numbers for pad wells appear not to be posting. I assume this is a temporary problem.
A no-show: it's being reported that Senator John McCain will not be able to vote on the tax bill. He is recovering at home from a recent hospitalization secondary to his brain cancer. It looks like the bill will be signed, but it's still not a slam dunk.
$100 billion should make this chart look better. It is now being reported (in The New York Times) that Prince Salman hopes to "recover" at least $100 billion from the rich tycoons he rounded up earlier this autumn. In the graph below, the kingdom was losing about $5 billion month-over-month in foreign reserves. It will be interesting to see how this graph changes.
Number of the Week: $56.60: According to Platts (subscription required), the energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie estimates the “weighted average break-even” for a barrel of crude produced from North Dakota shale is $56.60. Generally, the estimates include a modest profit.
Areas with higher estimated costs include: Niobrara (Rockies), $75.5; Canada Oil Sands, $70; Deepwater US, $63; Deepwater Angola, $73; Offshore Nigeria, $64; and Shallow Water Europe, $60. The estimates reviewed did not include Texas. No doubt, the petro-states of OPEC are concerned with hydraulic fracturing in the US.
The math doesn't work: break-even cost for oil for Canadian oil sands: $70. Canadian oil sands is now selling for $30. Previously posted.
The combination of rising condensate demand as new splitter capacity
came online and falling conde supply resulted in just what you’d expect —
higher conde prices. Worse yet for the companies that made throughput
commitments for those new splitters, the once-favorable price
differentials between conde and light-crude benchmarks West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) and Louisiana Light Sweet (LLS) have been turned on
their heads, and a number of splitters are operating at far less than
capacity.
Today, we continue our look at the roller-coaster world of
conde, this time focusing on conde prices and differentials, and on the
forces that may change the conde market once again.
Crude oil and condensate are categorized by their API gravity (API
standing for American Petroleum Institute), which is a measurement scale
(in degrees) of a petroleum liquid’s specific gravity — the lighter or
less dense the crude, the higher its API gravity number.
Superlight crude oil and condensate (or, as it’s commonly called,
conde) is at the far end of the crude-oil spectrum, with an API gravity
of 50 to 55 degrees for superlight and more that 55 degrees for conde
(according to the gravity breakdown used by the Energy Information
Administration, or EIA, in its Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production by API Gravity data series). As we said earlier in this blog series, superlight crude and conde can either be refined,
exported or blended with heavier crudes — or (for conde) run through a
splitter. A splitter uses atmospheric distillation to separate conde
into its component fractions to produce intermediate, semi-finished
blend stocks like naphthas and distillates that are processed further at
refineries.
A major resurgence of superlight/conde production like this would only
require crude prices staying pretty much where they are now — and
the development of new conde-related infrastructure. If it happens,
there would be more than enough condensate to meet the demand for
existing splitters (and a 35-Mb/d splitter that Targa Resources is
building at its Channelview, TX terminal), refinery appetite for
super-light material, and significant volumes of neat conde exports or
crude blends that include conde and/or superlight crude.
