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Saturday, August 26, 2017

Dumb And Dumber -- August 26, 2017

Updates

September 6, 2017: California scraps the $3 billion bailout to Tesla.
 
Original Post
 
From The Los Angeles Times:
Over seven years, the state of California has spent $449 million on consumer rebates to boost sales of zero-emission vehicles.

So far, the subsidies haven’t moved the needle much. In 2016, of the just over 2 million cars sold in the state, only 75,000 were pure-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. To date, out of 26 million cars and light trucks registered in California, just 315,000 are electric or plug-in hybrids.

The California Legislature is pushing forward a bill that would double down on the rebate program. Sextuple down, in fact.

If $449 million can’t do it, the thinking goes, maybe $3 billion will.

That’s the essence of the plan that could lift state rebates from $2,500 to $10,000 or more for a compact electric car, making, for example, a Chevrolet Bolt EV electric car cost the same as a gasoline-driven Honda Civic.

Outside observers and analysts raise eyebrows at the $3-billion budget line. Supporters say the money will come mainly from the state’s cap-and-trade auction revenue, although they are vague on details. 
I say "go for it." The Danes learned the hard way that rebates on EVs were a really, really dumb idea.

$3 billion / $10,000 = 300,000 vehicles. About where they are now.

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The Complete Notebooks of Henry James
The Authoritative and Definitive Edition
edited with introductions and notes by 
Leon Edel and Lyall H. Powers
c. 1987 

From page xii:
In some passages the novelist [Henry James] is candid about his underlying depression that remains with him not only after the failure of his play-writing but is a pat of  his mood swings in his daily life.

He speaks of his failures, as all writers do, of "indolence, vagueness, inattention," and in one exalted passage is "discouragements and lapses, depressions and darknesses."

In all writers there are resistances to work: the words won't come, the  mind sinks into a bog of inertia and staleness. And yet even in his deepest depression -- after his theatrical failures -- James is able to pursue his work. Criticism has failed to recognize that depression itself can be a driving force to powerful creation.

I think of T. S. Eliot writing The Waste Land when he felt his own life to be a waste; the depression may have caused some of his misjudgments which Pound corrected, but the created power was generated by despair.

Another modern instance is Virginia Woolf, who created her novels as a defence (sic) against melancholy and relapsed into her manic state when they were done.
This is the trisitimania described by the first great American psychiatrist, Benjamin Rush, and we see its presence in Proust, in Joyce, in Gide -- whose long narcissistic journals he himself published frequently; or in the endless journalizing of Anaïs Nin who began her notebooks as a long letter to an absent father.

Notebooks, diaries, journals are often repositories of grief and despair -- Kafka told us that writing was for him a form of prayer. Even the more camera-like journals of Edmund Wilson, or earlier the nature-mirror journals of Thoreau, reflect existential struggles, an overpowering need to write the book of the Self  in order find peace of the soul.

Closer Look At Enerplus Infill Cases, NDIC Hearing Dockets, September, 2017

The cases:
  • 26116, Enerplus, Four Bears-Bakken, 5 wells on an existing 320-acre unit; McKenzie County
  • 26617, Enerplus, Mandaree-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn County
  • 26618, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells one each of six existing 1280-acre units, 66 wells total; Dunn, McKenzie counties
  • 26119, Enerplus, South Fork-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells on each of four existing 1280-acre units; 54 wells total; Dunn County
The wells:
26116, 5 wells:
  • 320-acre unit:
    • W/2 of section 20-152-93
26117, 11 wells:
  • 1280-acre unit:
    • 30/31-149-93
26618, 76 wells:
  • 320-acre units, 10 wells:
    • W/2 of section 5-148-94
    • E/2 of section 16-148-94
  • 1280-acre units, 66 wells:
    • 25/36-149-95
    • 28/33-149-95
    • 30/31-149-94
    • 1/12-148-94
    • 2/11-148-94
    • 3/10-148-94
26119, 54 wells:
  • 320-acre units, 10 wells:
    • W/2 of 4-148-93
    • E/2 of 4-148-93
  • 1280-acre units, 44 wells:
    • 13/14-148-93 (see graphic below)
    • 15/16-148-93
    • 21/22-148-93
    • 23/24-148-93
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Significance

A reader recently sent me a note suggesting that a major operator in the Bakken was soon to cut back on the number of rigs working in North Dakota. He said that some folks would consider this "scary" for the Bakken.

Maybe. I don't know.

My theory is this. The banks have quit lending to shale operators. They, the shale operators, are on their own now. And for the shale operators, it's all about their balance sheets. In the Bakken alone, there are 850 DUCs and 1,500 wells shut in. Operators can afford to shut down new drilling and still meet their production contracts/quotas. It's very possible their balance sheets will improve immensely simply by cutting back on new drilling ... and then we get back to the discussion of the Red Queen. 

But that doesn't mean the end of the Bakken. When I see an operator looking for 76 more wells in one field, that puts everything into perspective.  And this is going on, month after month.

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Emergency Evacuation 

From Convergence: The Idea At The Heart Of Science, Peter Watson, c. 2016, p. 455.
[The science writer Philip Ball) found a good deal of spontaneous organization in human behavior. For example, people walking down a corridor in opposite directions tend to organize themselves spontaneously into counter-flowing maneuvers.

When trees or other objects are in the middle of the walkways, people spontaneously use them as separation markers, even though nothing is ever specified. [One sees this all the time when walking in airline terminals; think kiosks, etc.]

In a dangerous situation, a fire in a nightclub for example, when people panic and all rush for the exits, this actually increases the amount of time needed to empty the room. Computer simulations of this emergency show that if people move at a calm speed -- less than a meter and a half per second -- they are able to evacuate in an orderly manner.

At speeds greater than this, the people press against one another, and friction takes hold; they become locked shoulder to shoulder, "unable to pass through the door even though it stands open in front of them."

Interestingly, exactly the same thing can happen in a salt shaker even though none of the grains is bigger than the hole.
Although the author did not go on to discuss the emergency evacuation of a commercial airliner, this helps explain how flight attendants can evacuate a plane so quickly. The attendants generally have several minutes to explain to the passengers the nature of the emergency, the plan, and how to proceed once the plane has set down and the emergency doors are opened and the chutes deployed.

I've always wondered if flight attendants are provided the "scientific background" or the psychology of crowd behavior when being taught how to manage the emergency evacuation of a commercial airliner. I still don't know, but certainly that training is based on a scientific foundation.

NDIC Hearing Dockets, October, 2017

Link here.

Dockets are tracked here

The usual disclaimer applies.

Whether there will be more added later, I do not know but right now, there are four separate "pages" to the October, 2017, dockets, each with the same case (see below). Update: "normal" docket agenda has been released; see below the "fold."

On Wednesday, October 11, 2017, the NDIC will meet twice: once in Dickson, and once in Bismarck.

On Thursday, October, 12, 2017, the NDIC will meet twice: once in Minot, and once in Williston.

In each city, the same case will be heard:

Case 26062: On a motion of the Commission to consider adopting new rules and amendments to the "General Rules and Regulations for the Conservation of Crude Oil and Natural Gas" codified as Article 43-02 North Dakota Administrative Code.

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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

26126, NDIC, to review status of a temporarily abandoned well; White Rock Davis Creek #15172, Billings County
26127, MRO, McGregory Buttes-Bakken; grant relief for multiple wells to be drilled; Dunn County
26128, PetroShale, Squaw Creek-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 3 wells; McKenzie County
26129, PetroShale, Squaw Creek-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; 15 wells; 4/9-149-94; McKenzie County
26130, PetroShale, revoking EOG permits, McKenzie County
26131, Crescent Point Energy, legalese for an order enforcing elections to participate in the drilling, completion, and operation so several wells, most/all in northern North Dakota
26132, Petro Harvester, SWD
26133, Petro Harvester, SWD
26134, Petro Harvester, SWD
26135, Lime Rock Resources; commingling of gas
26136, Hess, commingling
26137, Hess, commingling
26138, Kraken Oil  & Gas; Oliver-Bakken; 14 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 30/31-158-98; Williams County
26139, Oasis, SWD
26140, BR, pooling
26141, BR, pooling

Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Supplement

26167, NDIC, to confiscate all injection-related equipment, Halek well #19585; Stark County


Thursday, October 19, 2017

26142, NDIC, altering spacing units in the Eagle Nest, Lost Bridge, Bear Creek, and/or Corral Creek-Bakken pools in various sections; Dunn County
26143, NDIC, altering spacing units in the Gros Ventre and/or East Tioga-Bakken in three sections ,Burke County
26144, NDIC, Oakdale-Bakken; appropriate spacing for future wells in the 2560-acre unit, 23/26/35-147-96 and 2-146-96, Dunn County
26145, CLR, revoking a permit issued ot Abraxas Petroleum Corp, Rav-Wiley #33954, McKenzie County
26146, CLR, Dimmick Lake-Bakken; amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 2 wells; McKenzie County
26147, NDIC, Glass Bluff-Madison Unit, to terminate, reduce, or any other appropriate action for pool operated by Liberty Resources Management Co, LLC, McKenzie, Williams
26148, Enerplus, pooling
26149, Enerplus, pooling
26150, Enerplus, pooling
26151, Enerplus, pooling
26152, Liberty Resources Management, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 4/9-158-96; Big Meadow-Bakken, Williams County
26153, Liberty Resources Management, 8 wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; 6/7-159-9e and 18/19-159-93; North Tioga-Bakken, Burke
26154, Liberty Resources Management, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 13/24-158-93, Enget Lake-Bakken, Mountrail County
26155, Liberty Resources Management, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 28/33-159-93, Gros Ventre-Bakken, Burke County
26156, Liberty Resources Management, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, 5/8-158-93; East Tioga-Bakken, Mountrail County
26157, CLR, pooling
26158, CLR, pooling
26159, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 34-147-96 and 3-146-96; Dunn County
26160, Statoil, commingling
26161, Sinclair Oil & Gas, legalese for a risk penalty
26162, Sinclair Oil & Gas, legalese for a risk penalty
26163, Sinclair Oil & Gas, legalese for a risk penalty
26164, Sinclair Oil & Gas, legalese for a risk penalty
26165, Sinclair Oil & Gas, legalese for a risk penalty
26166, Liberty Resources Management, conversion to enhanced recovery into the Glass Bluff-Madison Unit of the D. M. Iverson A 1 well, #9998, Glass Bluff field, McKenzie County

Friday, October 20, 2017

26124, Sedalia Energy, enlarge Pratt-Madison Unit Area, to add four sections, McHenry County
26125, Sedalia Energy, unitize the enlargement of Pratt-Madison Unit Area, McHenry County

NDIC Hearing Dockets, September, 2017

Link here.

Dockets are tracked here

The usual disclaimer applies.

What jumps out at you scrolling through the September, 2017, dockets?
  • Enerplus infill wells on 320-acre units and several 1280-acre units
  • Petro Harvester getting active targeting the Madison in northern North Dakota
Wednesday, September 20, 2017

26063, NDIC, confiscation, SWD well, Alturas Energy, McKenzie County
26064, NDIC, Portal-Madison; establishment and/or modifications of many spacing units, Burke County
26065, Petro Harvesters, Portal-Madison, establish a 560-acre unit; two hz wells; establish a 640-acre unit; 2 hz wells; establish a 800-acre unit; one hz well
26066, MRO, Van Hook-Bakken, establish a 2560-acre unit; 2 wells; Mountrail County
26067, MRO,  Antelope-Sanish, flaring,McKenzie County
26068, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, flaring, Dunn County
26069, MRO, Chimney Butte-Bakken, flaring, Dunn County
26070, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, flaring, Dunn County
26071, Hess, Ross-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 10 wells, Mountrail County
26072, Crescent Point Energy, Lone Tree Lake-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units; one well; Williams County
26073, GEM Razorback, risk penalty legalese, McKenzie County
26074, Petro Harvester, SWD, Portal Field, Burke County
26075, Petro Harvester, SWD, Burke County
26076, Petro Harvester, pooling
26077, Petro Harvester, pooling
26078, Petro Harvester, pooling
26079, Petro Harvester, pooling
26080, Petro Harvester, pooling
26081, Petro Harvester, pooling
26082, Petro Harvester, pooling
26083, Petro Harvester, pooling
26084, Kraken Oil & Gas, commingling
26085, Hess, pooling 
26086, Hess, pooling 
26087, MRO, Van Hook-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
26088, MRO, commingling
26089, MRO, pooling
26090, White Rock Oil & Gas, commingling from different pools
26091, Petro-Hunt, pooling
26092, Zargon, enhanced recovery into the Truro Madison Unit, Truro Field, Renville County
 
Thursday, September 21, 2017
26093, CLR, Oakdale and/or Corral Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; 2 wells; Dunn County
26094, CLR, Corral Creek-Bakken, setback rules relief, Dunn County
26095, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Dunn County
26096, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, setback rules for one well, Dunn County
26097, CLR, Oakdale-Bakken, setback rules for two wells, Dunn County
26098, WPX, Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 1 well; Dunn County
26099, EOG, Parshall-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; 2 wells; Mountrail County
26100, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; multiple horizontal wells on/near the section line; McKenzie County
26101, Armstrong Operating, Dickinson and/or Eland-Lodgepole, create a 320-acre unit; 1 well; Stark County
26102, Energy & Environmental Research Center, waive a bond for stratigraphic test holes, Oliver County and Mercer County
26103, Statoil, re-frack; Lime Rock Resources; Russell 10-3 1H, #19930, Williams County
26104, Zealous Energy, indirect heater placement;
26105, Slawson, pooling
26106, Liberty Resources, pooling
26107, Liberty Resources, pooling
26108, Liberty resources, Emget Lake-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County
26109, EOG, pooling
26110, EOG, commingling
26111, EOG, SWD
26112, WPX, pooling,
26113, XTO, risk penalty legalese
26114, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, 2 wells on an existing overlapping 1280-acre unit, Dunn County
26115, XTO, Bear Creek-Bakken, 4 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; Dunn County
26116, Enerplus, Four Bears-Bakken, 5 wells on an existing 320-acre unit; McKenzie County
26617, Enerplus, Mandaree-Bakken, 11 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn County
26618, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells one each of six existing 1280-acre units, 76 wells total; Dunn, McKenzie counties
26119, Enerplus, South Fork-Bakken, 5 wells on each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells on each of four existing 1280-acre units; 54 wells total; Dunn County
26120, Zavanna, commingling
26121, Resonance Exploration, commingling
26122, Windridge Operating, SWD