| 4/19/2017 | 04/19/2016 | 04/19/2015 | 04/19/2014 | 04/19/2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 50 | 29 | 93 | 188 | 185 |
Two new permits:
- Operator: Hess
- Field: Blue Buttes (McKenzie)
- Comments:
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Two New Permits And That Was About It -- April 19, 2017
Active rigs:
Two new permits:
Two new permits:
WUWT? April 19, 2107
I haven't watched television at all in the last couple of days (I'm traveling) so I don't know what the "talking heads" are saying to explain the price of oil today, but it appears oil dropped about 3.6%, and closed well below $51.
Geopolitically, the world must have quieted down significantly.
One would have thought with these three articles on China and oil, the price of oil would have actually gone up a bit:
Update: after posting the above articles sent from a reader (thank you), the reader sent another article, this one about India. India's fuel demand rises to record on gasoline, diesel growth.
I see Bill O'Reilly is out, apparently replaced by Tucker Carlson. My hunch is that Tucker will do even better with the ratings. Mainstream media should see the photos that the tabloids have on former President Clinton. The former story will be a huge story on ABC News tonight; the Clinton story won't be mentioned despite the photos. It is amazing with whom former President Clinton is seen.
Geopolitically, the world must have quieted down significantly.
One would have thought with these three articles on China and oil, the price of oil would have actually gone up a bit:
- Chine's crude oil imports will rise in 2017; Chinese crude oil production fell in Marchsi
- similar story here
- similar story here
Update: after posting the above articles sent from a reader (thank you), the reader sent another article, this one about India. India's fuel demand rises to record on gasoline, diesel growth.
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Mid-Day Meandering
I see Bill O'Reilly is out, apparently replaced by Tucker Carlson. My hunch is that Tucker will do even better with the ratings. Mainstream media should see the photos that the tabloids have on former President Clinton. The former story will be a huge story on ABC News tonight; the Clinton story won't be mentioned despite the photos. It is amazing with whom former President Clinton is seen.
Yahoo E-Mail Has Had Major Disruption Since Early This Morning -- April 19, 2017
"Is Yahoo Mail Down?" suggests the problem continues, although it might be clearing up based on number of reports. But the map suggests things have gotten much, much worse since reports first began coming in.
Africa appears not to be experiencing any problems. Nor North Korea.
Africa appears not to be experiencing any problems. Nor North Korea.
Oil Pricing -- Where We Stand -- April 19, 2017
Re-posted from earlier, today's crude oil / gasoline data from the EIA:
Saudi Arabia says it "needs" $60-oil (average) for the entire year, 2017. This is where we stand to get to that $60-average. The first three months are completed; April - December are estimates of numbers that would be needed to get us to $60 oil. We have to have steady trend to $70 by end of year, and have to hit $70 by November. The numbers are simply my ballpark estimates of the average price of WTI in any given month. Brent is currently trending a bit higher than WTI. Saudi has its own pricing.
Vern Whitten sent link to his 1997 photos of the massive Red River flood. Link here. In the notes that accompanied his e-mail:
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658
It's impossible for me to "fathom" this degree of flooding. All the photos are amazing, but the first two literally take one's breath away. And it's not like this water receded in a day or two; this went on for weeks.
Re-Balancing: US crude oil inventories down one million bbls. At this rate, only 150 more days to get us to "normal" -- 250 million bbls in US storage. The link will take you to a pdf.In other words, no real change, and still remarkable how much oil the US still imports.
US refining as gasoline prices start increase significantly: US refiners are at 93% operable capacity; they increased throughput by about 240,000 bbls/day, but evenso, gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.8 million bbls/day. Imports of crude oil decreased by a miserable 68,000 bopd (trivial), averaging over 7.8 million bopd. Over the past four weeks, US crude oil imports have actually increased 2% over the same same four-week period one year ago.
Saudi Arabia says it "needs" $60-oil (average) for the entire year, 2017. This is where we stand to get to that $60-average. The first three months are completed; April - December are estimates of numbers that would be needed to get us to $60 oil. We have to have steady trend to $70 by end of year, and have to hit $70 by November. The numbers are simply my ballpark estimates of the average price of WTI in any given month. Brent is currently trending a bit higher than WTI. Saudi has its own pricing.
Scenario One
|
|
January
|
50
|
February
|
50
|
March
|
52
|
April
|
54
|
May
|
55
|
June
|
60
|
July
|
60
|
August
|
65
|
September
|
65
|
October
|
65
|
November
|
70
|
December
|
70
|
2017 Average
|
60
|
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Flashback
Vern Whitten sent link to his 1997 photos of the massive Red River flood. Link here. In the notes that accompanied his e-mail:
Vern Whitten PhotographyPhoto notes: 20 years ago we used a medium format film camera to take thesephotos. It was 10 shots then reload in the airplane. We then made contact sheetsin the darkroom, and scanned each negative before printing. Now, we have a digitalcamera that can over 400 high resolution photos before putting in a new chip.
Be sure to send Mr Whitten a big "thank you" for posting his photos/his links. He would love to hear from you.
www.vernwhittenphotography.com
(701) 261-7658
It's impossible for me to "fathom" this degree of flooding. All the photos are amazing, but the first two literally take one's breath away. And it's not like this water receded in a day or two; this went on for weeks.
Wednesday, April 19, 2017
Surging: From Reuters -- "oil dips, hits 11-day low, as US shale output seen surging."
Active rigs:
RBN Energy: Sabal Trail, Marcellus / Utica natural gas supply and Florida's growing power market.
Active rigs:
| 4/19/2017 | 04/19/2016 | 04/19/2015 | 04/19/2014 | 04/19/2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 50 | 29 | 93 | 188 | 185 |
RBN Energy: Sabal Trail, Marcellus / Utica natural gas supply and Florida's growing power market.
The Florida natural gas market will soon have access to another supply source. In June 2017, the Sabal Trail Transmission natural gas pipeline project is expected to begin service, bringing the market one step closer to connecting Marcellus/Utica natural gas to demand markets on the increasingly gas-thirsty Florida peninsula.
The project will increase gas supply options for growing power generation demand in the Sunshine State while effectively also increasing gas-on-gas competition between producers in the Northeast, Gulf Coast and Midcontinent. Today we provide an update on Sabal Trail and its related projects.
The Florida peninsula has long been isolated from natural gas supply areas, with minimal in-state production, no gas storage capacity to speak of and just two pipeline options for shipping gas into the state from other supply regions. All that may have been acceptable—or at least manageable—at one point in time, but the state in recent years has added significant amounts of gas-fired power generation capacity.
Florida—already one of the biggest consumers of natural gas to generate electricity, second only to Texas—is hugely dependent on natural gas and becoming more so.
To meet growing demand for electricity in Florida, NextEra Energy’s Florida Power and Light Company (FPL), the state’s largest electric utility and the largest consumer of natural gas, has undertaken a significant revamp of its generation fleet to replace legacy plants that burn coal and less-efficient natural gas peaker units.
FPL completed its first major plant upgrade at Cape Canaveral in April 2013 – a 1,277-MW combined cycle gas turbine unit consuming about 175 MMcf/d of natural gas. Additional gas-fired generation plant capacity has been added since then. This includes the addition of the 1,250-MW Riviera Beach plant in spring 2014 and the 1,277-MW Port Everglades plant in Fort Lauderdale in April 2016; a 460-MW expansion of Tampa Electric’s Polk County Power Station in January 2017; and a planned new 1,640-MW Duke Energy combined-cycle power plant in Citrus County, FL, due online in 2018. And in January 2016, FPL received regulatory approval from the Florida Public Service Commission for the Okeechobee Clean Energy Center, a 1,600-MW combined-cycle gas-fired power plant in Okeechobee County scheduled to open in 2019.With regard to "peaker units," this blurb from RBN Energy August 17, 2012:
We just finished up the hottest July on record. Very high temperatures cause air conditioning demand to go ballistic. System operators struggle to generate enough power to satisfy peak load and call on expensive “peaker” generation units that set a high market price for power. With gas prices trading lower these days, the spread between high power prices and the cost of the gas fuel to generate that electricity (the spark spread) widens considerably during a heat wave. Today we look at spark spreads during July in New York City.
Wednesday, April 18, 2017, The Political Page, T+88 -- April 18, 2017
Clearly, the definition of insanity. These states have been re-electing the same folks since WWII.
On Tuesday, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) released the 10th edition of its Rich States, Poor States study, and it shows that red states have better economies than blue states in 2017.
The study, co-authored by economist Dr. Arthur Laffer, Heritage Foundation fellow Stephen Moore, and ALEC vice president Jonathan Williams, shows “a pro-growth trend across the nation for 2017.”
Some of the worst-performing states, though, are run by Democrats.
Democrats control either the legislature, the governor’s office, or both in each of the bottom ten states in ALEC’s study.
Those states are, from #41 to #50:
Regardless of who runs what, it is just amazing that
I've pretty much quit blocking on global warming (discussed earlier) but every so ofent a reader sends me an article that just ha to be posted for the archives. This is one of them. From Bloomberg, "Tahoe go so much snow this winter, they will be skiing all summer. An historic winter set up an unprecedented summer at Squaw Valley. Snowfall surpassed 700 inches this past week. how much is 700 inches? Two hundred fifty (250) inches above average. The record snowfall is being blamed on climate change.
On Tuesday, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) released the 10th edition of its Rich States, Poor States study, and it shows that red states have better economies than blue states in 2017.
The study, co-authored by economist Dr. Arthur Laffer, Heritage Foundation fellow Stephen Moore, and ALEC vice president Jonathan Williams, shows “a pro-growth trend across the nation for 2017.”
Some of the worst-performing states, though, are run by Democrats.
Democrats control either the legislature, the governor’s office, or both in each of the bottom ten states in ALEC’s study.
Those states are, from #41 to #50:
- #41: Oregon (Dems control the legislature and governor’s office)
- #42: Maine (Dems split control of the legislature with Republicans)
- #43: Hawaii (Dems control the legislature and governor’s office)
- #44: Illinois (Dems control the legislature)
- #45: Minnesota (Dems control the governor’s office)
- #46: Connecticut (Dems control the legislature and governor’s office)
- #47: California (Dems control the legislature and governor’s office)
- #48: New Jersey (Dems control the legislature)
- #49: Vermont (Dems control the legislature)
- #50: New York (Dems control the legislature and governor’s office)
Regardless of who runs what, it is just amazing that
a) it seems to be no surprise which states make the list; and,The pdf is at this link. A screenshot of the 50 states and their ranking:
b) it seems to be no surprise which states make the list.
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Global Warming?
Winter Ski Resorts Cheering
I've pretty much quit blocking on global warming (discussed earlier) but every so ofent a reader sends me an article that just ha to be posted for the archives. This is one of them. From Bloomberg, "Tahoe go so much snow this winter, they will be skiing all summer. An historic winter set up an unprecedented summer at Squaw Valley. Snowfall surpassed 700 inches this past week. how much is 700 inches? Two hundred fifty (250) inches above average. The record snowfall is being blamed on climate change.
The Market And Energy Page, T+88 -- April 19, 2017
Re-balancing: Saudi oil exports drop to 2015 low; sticks to cuts -- Bloomberg. I'll wait to see the EIA data. Data points in this article:
US refining as gasoline prices start increase significantly: US refiners are at 93% operable capacity; they increased throughput by about 240,000 bbls/day, but evenso, gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.8 million bbls/day. Imports of crude oil decreased by a miserable 68,000 bopd (trivial), averaging over 7.8 million bopd. Over the past four weeks, US crude oil imports have actually increased 2% over the same same four-week period one year ago.
Morgan Stanley: quarter profit surges on trading gains. With regard to trading gains/losses, it appears Goldman Sachs was the "odd man out" this past quarter.
IBM, continued: stock tumbles as year-over-year revenue declines for 20th consecutive quarter -- CNBC. Earnings ($2.38) beat forecast ($2.35). Warren Buffett will take huge beating.
Oklahoma: to end tax credit that propelled wind production.
Indiana: legislature approves bill curtailing solar panel incentives.
- Saudi's oil exports feel to slight less than 7 million bopd in February, 2017, the lowest since May, 2015
- compare to 7.7 million bopd in January
- boosted production to 10 million bopd from 9.7 million bopd
- refinery processing increasd b 26%
- crude used directly to fuel power plants increased
- storage increased
- stockpiles increased to 265 million bbls (compare to US' 555 million bbls)
- Saudi Aramco's 120,000 bopd refinery has shut down for 80-day maintenance
- storage increases reflect that shutdown
- other refineries will make up the slack for the shutdown which will last through mid-May
- country plans to double refining capacity over the next ten years
US refining as gasoline prices start increase significantly: US refiners are at 93% operable capacity; they increased throughput by about 240,000 bbls/day, but evenso, gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.8 million bbls/day. Imports of crude oil decreased by a miserable 68,000 bopd (trivial), averaging over 7.8 million bopd. Over the past four weeks, US crude oil imports have actually increased 2% over the same same four-week period one year ago.
Morgan Stanley: quarter profit surges on trading gains. With regard to trading gains/losses, it appears Goldman Sachs was the "odd man out" this past quarter.
IBM, continued: stock tumbles as year-over-year revenue declines for 20th consecutive quarter -- CNBC. Earnings ($2.38) beat forecast ($2.35). Warren Buffett will take huge beating.
**********************
Wind And Solar
Oklahoma: to end tax credit that propelled wind production.
Indiana: legislature approves bill curtailing solar panel incentives.