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Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Two More Trump Nominees Approved By A Landslide -- January 31, 2017

Interior Department, Ryan Zinke, 16 - 6.
Energy Department, Rick Perry, 16 - 7.

I would mention this to my wife, that Rick Perry was approved by the committee, but I look forward to living a few more years. I am unable to think of one person my wife detests more than Rick Perry. Maybe Vladimir Putin, but it would be close.

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Enterprise To Build iBDH Plant In Mont Belvieu

First reported at the blog back in 2013

So what's an iBDH plant? Data points:
  • a new isobutene dehydrogenation unit
  • Enterprise will also start operations of a new propane dehydrogenation unit dur 2Q16
  • the new iBDH plant: 425,000 tons/year of isobutylene
  • isobutylene: provides feedstock to fill underutilized capacity at Enterprise's exisitng octane enhancement and petrochemical facilities
  • isobutylene: feedstock for lubricants, rubber products, alkylate for gasolien blendstock as well as methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) for export
  • MTBE banned in the US
Meanwhile, Prince Salman's plan dithers and withers waiting for financing.

More On The ExxonMobil - Bass Family - $5.6 Billion - Permian Deal -- January 31, 2017

Rigzone.
  • acreage in "less-developed New Mexico, Delaware basin side of the Permian"
  • ExxonMobil bought out the Bass family's 250,000 acres
  • will add 3.4 billion of boe reserves; in effect, doubling its position in the Permian to 6 billion boe
  • Bass Family: $5.6 billion in shares, along with $1 billion contingency cash payments between 2020 and 2032
  • XOM pays 3.51%; 0.0351 x $5.6 billion = $200 million annually in dividends; lotsa money for fine arts in Ft Worth
  • the deal: priciest acquisition in the Permian this month
  • challenges:
    • geology
    • BLM
My hunch after XOM reported 4Q16 earnings today: XOM is in deep trouble. What could go wrong?
  • "less-developed area of the Permian"
  • geology makes it difficult
  • BLM makes it difficult (thank goodness Trump is POTUS)
Why does this remind me of Chesapeake's experience in the Bakken?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Making America Greater Than Ever Before -- Amazon To Build First Air Cargo Hub -- January 31, 2017

The press and US politicians cannot keep up with this.

Seventh full business day for President Trump: Amazon.com plans first air cargo hub; facility at Cincinnati / Northern Kentucky Airpot to create 2,000 jobs.

Wall Street Journal.

UPS reported earnings today.

UPS is toast.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Amazon.com:
  • first air cargo hub to accommodate its growing fleet of plains
  • ramping up to transport, sort, and deliver its own packages
  • will lessen dependence on UPS and FedEx, both of whose largest hubs are nearby
  • Amazon said it would lease 40 cargo planes, 16 of which are currently in its fleet
  • brought on a dedicated network of 4,000 semi trailers to increase trucking capacity 
  • has a fleet of citizen courier Flex drivers making deliveries in major metro areas
Oh, by the way, did I say UPS was toast?
  • Amazon.com will become ad direct competitor with UPS and FedEx
  • $1.5 billion investment; 2 million square feet
Much, much more at the link.

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Harley-Davidson Unable To Man Up

Cancels Trump visit; doesn't want to deal with protestors. Wow. And these guys sell motorcycles to Hell's Angels.

Sounds like another company run by cupcakes and snowflakes.

Remember the video of Donald Trump during the campaign hoofing it across divided highways to reach a rally where protesters had blocked his way?

Maybe Trump can invite the Hell's Angels to the White House.

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Speaking of Cupcakes, Snowflakes, and Hypocrites

Top Story Over At Google Finance -- January 31, 2017



This is life during wartime. I'm waiting for Iran to test the US Navy.

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

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Tit For Tat 

The other day, in response to the "Feinstein-Obama-Trump" ban on refugees, Iran said it was banning Americans traveling to Iran.

Oh, oh.

Iran needs American know-how to run their natural gas and oil fields.
In January, Iran's Oil Ministry published list of 29 international companies qualified to bid for oil and gas projects following the lifting of sanctions under a landmark nuclear accord that went into effect last year.

US Army Has Directed US Army Corps Of Engineers To Issue The Easement -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:02 p.m. Central Time: sock it to 'em.

Remember me?

PennEnergy: ND bill heightens penalties for rioting against oil pipeline. Not yet passed; proposed.
  • ten years in prison; $20,000 fine -- double current penaltie
Sounds like current law adequate (5 years in prison; $10,000 fine) if enforced, but generally North Dakota snowflakes and cupcakes in judicial robes let folks off with stern warning -- "Uffda, don't do that again." 
Original Post
 
As a reminder, with regard to DAPL, the chain of command for: the US Army Corps of Engineers

This may be of interest in 2017:
With that in mind, this link: US Army Corps of Engineers directed to approve Dakota Access easement.
The acting Secretary of the Army has directed the Army Corps of Engineers to issue the final remaining easement for the Dakota Access pipeline for a disputed crossing at Lake Oahe.
Robert Speer, who was designated as the acting Secretary of the U.S. Army on January 20, 2017, notified Congress Tuesday that the agency will be granting the easement.
The move follows a memo from President Donald Trump on Jan. 24 directing that the agency expedite reviews and approvals for the project, which was proposed to carry Bakken crude 1,172 miles across four states to Illinois, where it can more readily access refineries that handle light sweet crude.
Proponents of the pipeline have said it will take thousands of trucks off the road and represents the safest way of transporting crude, while opponents have questioned whether safety measures at Lake Oahe will be adequate to protect the water, which provides drinking water to the tribe and many others downstream.
Delegates for North Dakota have generally supported completion of the project, seen by industry leaders as critical infrastructure for the Bakken’s future.
Apparently US Secretary of the Army, Patrick J Murphy tendered his resignation January 20, 2017.

I'm having trouble reading the tea leaves, I've haven't really been following this story lately, but what little I've read, the Standing Rock Reservation elders have pretty much thrown in the towel.

One wonders how much the casino has lost over the past few months.

A reader tells me that 600 protesters are due in North Dakota court. How many show up is another issue, but for sure, those 600 are not going to be protesting.

Without those 600 the protesting cause is pretty much dead.

Unless someone finds a judge who wants to put a "stay" on the US Army directive, my hunch is "they" can complete the pipeline in less than a month. 

Minimal Information On Today's Daily Activity Report -- January 31, 2017

Active rigs:


1/31/201701/31/201601/31/201501/31/201401/31/2013
Active Rigs4045146191185

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 32766, SI/NC, SM Energy, Thompson Bros Federal 2B-17HN, Burg, no production data,
Eight (8) permits renewed:
  • CLR (4): two Gronfur permits; two Gjorven Federal permits, all in Williams County
  • EOG (4): four Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County

Apple Crushes Expectations -- January 31, 2017


From Yahoo!Finance, data points:
  • shares up 3% after hours in response to news
  • revenue: $78.4 billion vs $77.4 billion
  • EPS: $3.36 vs $3.21
  • iPhones: 78.3 units sold; vs 76.3 forecast
  • Apple's highest quarterly revenue ever
  • iPhone's biggest quarter ever
From the linked article:
“We’re thrilled,” said CEO Tim Cook in a press release. “We sold more iPhones than ever before and set all-time revenue records for iPhone, Services, Mac and Apple Watch… and we are very excited about the products in our pipeline.”

The big number to pay attention to with Apple earnings these days, as Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley notes, is average selling price (ASP) for iPhone. This time, ASP came in at $694.57, beating the $691 ASP of the first quarter last year, and beating Wall Street expectations of $688.

That’s an all-time high for ASP, indicating Apple devotees bought up iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, despite the controversy over Apple removing its headphone jack.
Wait until tomorrow when all those shorts start covering.

No mention of all that cash overseas.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Apple Watch? Fitbit is history:
Fitbit: to cut 10% of workforce; will miss guidance by large margin; shares down significantly in pre-market trading. AAPL earnings come out tomorrow. If I recall correctly, Fitbit had a bad quarter three months ago, also. Did I mention that AAPL earnings were coming out tomorrow. Link over at CNBC.
Over at Macrumors:
  • iPhone 7 is most popular "plus" model Apple has released
  • outsold the 2014 iPhone 6 Plus and the 2015 iPhone 6s Plus
  • the dual camera appears to have been particularly well accepted by customers
  • Apple had underestimated demand for the iPhone 7 Plus, leading to supply and demand issues; impacted sales
Most fun: reading the comments of those folks who simply don't get it.

Apple blows away the analysts. Prior to release:
  • • Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
  • • Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
  • • Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
  • • Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
  • • Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
  • • Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
  • • Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
  • • Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
  • • Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
  • • Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion 
The actual: $78.4 billion.

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Apple Execs

Sultans of Swing.

Sultans of Swing (Dire Straits, Drum Cover by Sina

On The Brink -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 9:59 p.m. Central Time: Mexico raises the price of gasoline (see below); Argentina raises electricity tariffs by up to 148%. Financial Times. Trump is going to run circles around the rest of the world, making America greater than it's ever been.

Original Post 

To the list (Ukraine, Crimean, Baltic, Saudi Arabia, Mideast), add Mexico. In The San Diego Union Tribune today, "the reasons behind gasoline protest in Mexico." Some data points:
  • increases in gasoline prices are being accelerated in an ambitious effort to turn around the country's energy sector
  • the recent increase will be followed by another increase at the pump in February, 2017
  • half the population lives in poverty
  • Mexico has a new problem: Trump (Vicente Fox' response on US television certainly did not help the situation)
  • along with South African, Mexicans spend the largest portion of their incomes on gasoline (I assume that was before the recent increase in the price of gasoline); gasoline was already heavily subsidized; gasoline tax was the revenue that ran the country
  • like Venezuela: one of the world's top producers of crude oil, yet one-third to one-half of the country's gasoline is imported from the United States
  • Mexico's treasury has been used to subsidize gasoline -- not education, infrastructure, public services, or health care
  • regular gasoline went up 14%; will go up another 8% in February; in fact, in some areas along the border, some consumers felt the price had gone up 50%
  • gasoline tax: accounts for 50% of the price at the pump; tax was not decreased despite rise in price of gasoline
  • Mexico ranks dead last among OECD nations in collecting tax revenue (similar to problems Greece has)
  • daily minimum wage in Mexico: $3.60/day
  • Mexican congressmen voted themselves a Christmas bonus: $11,000/senator and $6,500/congressman
  • many government officials also receive $250/month in stipends for gasoline -- that's per month (how much do you spend on gasoline each month; something tells me government official are selling these vouchers on the "black market")
  • Nieto's approval numbers down to 12%
  • value of the peso is falling
  • US investment is likely to fall under Trump
  • but Nieto and Vicente Fox both say the US needs Mexico more than Mexico needs the US
Maybe. 

Mega-Loads No Longer Allowed On State Roads In Idaho -- This Chapter Closed -- January 31, 2017

This was a big story six years ago when COP and XOM obtained permits to transport massive pieces of oil refinery equipment to the Canadian tar sands.

No more.

Story over at PennEnergy.

Good, bad, or indifferent: oil companies now have clear-cut rules.

From the article, regarding State Highway 12:
The highway runs through the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest and along the Middle Fork of the Clearwater River and its tributary, the Lochsa River. Both rivers are protected under the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act of 1968.
The Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Rivers United and the legal group Advocates for the West sued the U.S. Forest Service in 2013, saying the federal agency had a duty to regulate the giant shipments. In response, a federal judge ordered a halt to the megaloads while the lawsuit worked its way through the courts.
Meanwhile, declining oil prices reduced demand from companies seeking to use the highway for megaloads.
Justin Trudeau no doubt supports this.

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Management 101
How To Surround Yourself With Best People

From: Scott Adams.
The smartest person I know told me that the secret to business success does NOT necessarily involve hiring the right people. We just think it does. 
The real secret to success is firing the people that you discover to be the wrong fit until eventually you END UP with the right people. No one is psychic enough to do hiring right every time. Job applicants are good at misrepresenting themselves. But a good leader knows which employees to fire and does it quickly and humanely.

Trump fires well. We saw him fire campaign managers as needed to restaff for each phase of his campaign. Lewandowski was perfect for the scrappy first months. Manafort was the right campaign manager to get Trump through the nomination process. And Conway was the right pick as his closer.
Apparently Sally Yates was not the right fit. LOL.

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Word For The Day: Cuirassiers

The Private Lives of The Impressionists, Sue Roe, c. 2006

Cuirassiers: armed cavalry; armed, shielded (breastplate, sometimes a backplate); made "famous" during the Napoleonic wars (1870); pistols displaced the lance; and eventually, swords displaced the pistols, the latter becoming secondary to the former.  

Sophia's word/phrase for the day: flying horse.

BP Embraces The Rockies -- January 31, 2017

From Rigzone:
  • BP moves its "US Lower 48 headquarters" from Houston to Denver
  • BP: "two-thirds of its operated oil and natural gas production and proved reserves in the Rocky Mountain region
  • could BP investing in the Rockies revive natural gas interest in that area?
    • after a surge in activity from 2005 to 2008, the Rockies natural gas story stagnated due to surge in the Marcellus
  • BP: a natural gas company?
    • BP: natural gas comprises 80% of BP's "Lower 48" portfolio
    • BP: globally, natural gas comprises 50% of its portfolio; wants to reach 60% by end of 2019 
    • BP gas projects coming on-line: Trinidad & Tobago; Oman; Egypt; the Shah Deniz 2 project in Azerbaijan
  • BP: five "Lower 48" units
    • Green River: BP's first horizontal since 2015; 1.4 billion boe estimated
    • San Juan Basin: 2.1 billion boe estimated; targeting wet gas in the Mesaverde horizong; gas and oil in the Mancos marine source rock; and, wet gas in the Dakota marine sands; successfully drilled a tri-lateral well "that accessed 14,600 feet of coal"
  • some question decision; BP says looking long-term; not short-term
  • "Rockies" -- six oil / natural gas basins
    • Denver-Julesberg basin -- oil
    • Powder River basin -- oil
    • Green River Overthrust -- natural gas
    • Piceance basin -- natural gas
    • San Juan basin -- natural gas
    • Uinta basin -- natural gas  
  • Rockies:
    • Denver-Julesberg (DJ) basin is the only area expected to see robust growth in 2017 -- analyst
    • Anadarko and Noble Energy will continue to deploy capital in this basin; highly economic
    • Powder River basin: once thought to be "hot" has fallen out of favor
    • Uinta: unique properties; requires much higher commodity prices
    • Niobrara: should grow in 2017; however, midstream capacity is needed
  • Driving all this? US LNG exports
The Bakken: a Rockies basin?

Whiting Looks To Increase Bakken Workforce -- January 31, 2017

This is pretty cool.

Everyone agrees that there is likely to be a shortage of workers going forward in the Bakken.

There are a number of ways to address this challenge.

Whiting is looking at a novel way of increasing the Bakken workforce: more babies.

From northdakotaoilcan, Whiting Petroleum contributed $50,000 towards a new obstetrics room int  a new medical facility at ground zero in the Bakken. Data points:
  • Watford City: McKenzie County Healthcare Systems' new medical center
  • Howard Bonner Memorial Emergency Room with technology for the best, most immediate and effective response in the region
Tongue-in-cheek, of course, but this tells me that Whiting "corporate" is very, very attuned to their folks working in the Bakken: young, growing families. Good for them.

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New Hampshire Sees Increasing Electricity Costs As Business Threat

From seacoastonline:
  • CAVE dwellers against 
    • hydroelectricity from Canada
    • transmission lines
    • natural gas pipelines
  • case study
    • Newington gun maker Sig Sauer will locate an ammunition-making operation at a permanent site in Jacksonville, Arkansas
    • cited electricity costs in Arkansas are half that of New Hampshire's
  • EIA: 
    • New Hampshire, residential: almost 20 cents/kwh
    • Arkansas, residential: almost 10 cents/kwh
    • New Hampshire, commercial: almost 15 cents/kwhArkansas: 8 cents/kwh

XOM: A Huge Miss -- January 31, 2017

Dilbert: the Canadian option. Speaking of which, a security analyst provides rationale for Trump's action. Again, Trump is a step ahead of the politicians. He understands 9/11.

Politics: Trump is expected to "pull out" of the Paris climate agreement by the end of this week. 

Politics: Dems arguing for more "open borders" into the US won't play well in the heartland. Or among New Yorkers. Maybe in Silicon Valley, but that's about it.

Politics: an LGBT-executive order today is expected today. It will be interesting to see who has accepted his invitations to attend the ceremony. Trump usually signs his executive orders in a "reality-show" venue.

XOM: huge miss; 41 cents vs forecast of 70 cents; top line also a huge miss. This helps explains XOM's "doubling down" in the Permian. I still still XOM entering the Permian was "Johnny-come-late" and too-little, too-late. I still think XOM should have bought CLR years ago.

CEO - barista wage gap: Starbucks CEO earns half-billion dollars in nine years; baristas? Not so much. 

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A Little Mythology

Shell sells $4.7 billion of North Sea assets, from Bloomberg. Needs cash to pare debt from last year's acquisition of BG Group, a $54 billion deal. North Sea buyer: Chrysaor.  From wiki:
Chrysaor was the brother of the winged horse Pegasus and son of Poseidon and the Gorgon Medusa. When Medusa was decapitated by Perseus, both Chrysaor and Pegasus were born at the same time. Little is known about Chrysaor; he was considered a stout-hearted warrior, and his name means "he who bears a golden sword".  
Chrysaor is a private company established in 2007; focused on developing and commercializing oil and gas "incremental resources."

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Oil: oil steady as rising US output offsets OPEC-led cuts.

US shale revolution: BP embraces the US shale revolution, Rigzone. Blog posting here.

Wal-mart: expands free shipping, but has long lost the battle with Amazon Prime.
  • free; no annual fee
  • free shipping applies to orders over $35
  • applies only to specific 2,000 items [the Achilles heel in this announcement]
  • Amazon Prime applies to "all" orders, more than 40,000 items
  • Wal-Mart: "in this day and age, two-day shipping is just table stakes." [Table stakes: the minimum resources needed to enter a market.]
Robots: the new baristas.  Keurig on steroids. I'm not sold. Maybe at high-volume, where speed is not an option -- airport terminals.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


1/31/201701/31/201601/31/201501/31/201401/31/2013
Active Rigs4045146191185

RBN Energy: new REX Zone 3 capacity and northeast gas markets, part 2.

The market: futures (Dow 30) imply a 50-point drop  when the market opens. This is still a continuation from yesterday but earnings being reported before market opening are not good.

GDPNow: 2.3 percent for 1Q17 -- January 30, 2017.

COP dividend: although not by much, COP raised quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.265.