Interesting Graphic From Goldman Sachs -- Oil Supply - Demand -- November 27, 2017

Link here.

Biomass To Gasoline -- Updating Sundrop Fuels -- November 27, 2016

Updating an old post: Sundrop Fuels / EERC -- biomass conversion to gasoline. Pilot facility near Alexandria, Louisiana, but as of 2014/2015, a process demonstration facility now in operation at North Dakota's Energy and Environmental Research Center.

It's Not Peak Oil, Any More ... It's Peak Oil DEMAND -- November 27, 2016

Peak oil demand. From The WSJ: oil industry anticipates day or reckoning. The story may or may not be a "fake story," but certainly the headline is a "fake headline." From the story:

The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized countries on energy policy, says consumption will continue to rise for decades in its most likely scenario. But that picture shifts radically if governments take further action to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius with more stringent policies like carbon pricing, strict emissions limits and the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies. If that happens, oil demand could peak within the next 10 years, the IEA says. 

The graphic:

Fake headline. We're not going to see peak oil demand in my investing lifetime. 

****************************************

Natural Gas: US Now A Net Exporter

Natural gas, new milestone: the US is now -- officially -- a net exporter of natural gas. From The Wall Street Journal.

The U.S. has become a net exporter of natural gas, further evidence of the how the domestic oil and gas boom is reshaping the global energy business.

The U.S. has exported an average of 7.4 billion cubic feet a day of gas in November, more than the 7 billion cubic feet a day it has imported, according to S&P Global Platts, an energy trade publisher and data provider. Exports also topped imports for a few days in September, Platts reported. It has been nearly 60 years since the U.S. last shipped out more natural gas than it brought in annually, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The milestone comes less than a year after restrictions on most crude oil exports were lifted, allowing tankers of crude to be freely shipped overseas for the first time nearly half a century, and together they mark a significant and potentially permanent change in the way U.S. energy flows around the world. Overseas producers now have to deal with the growing clout of the U.S. energy industry, which is aggressively looking to ramp up its global market share to help offset a long period of low prices.

Gas exports have risen more than 50% since 2010. The U.S. will ship gas equal to as much as a fifth of its annual consumption abroad by 2020, Citigroup estimates. The Energy Department says the country will be the world’s third-largest producer of liquefied natural gas for export by that year, trailing Australia and Qatar.

 This is a huge story. It's been a recurrent them on the MDW. Start with "The Big Stories." Then to "LNG Exports." Even the Middle East is becoming a major customer for US natural gas.

*********************************

Gigantic Tablets

Speaking of the next big thing. From The Wall Street Journal: long a novelty, gigantic tablets are sneaking into the workplace.

The devices—anything bigger than 13 inches, the size of an iPad Pro—are interesting for several reasons. First is the diversity of their uses, from the bowels of cruise ships to your local McDonald’s. The second is that, unlike tablets and other mobile touch-screen devices, no one owns this category yet.

Canada Aims To Fully Phase Out Coal Power By 2030 -- November 27, 2016

Spokesman:

Coal power in Canada currently represents close to 10% of greenhouse-gas emissions coming from four provinces—Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Provinces will have the option to choose between phasing out coal entirely and replacing it with lower-emitting resources, or using carbon capture and storage technology.

Does it matter?

This is easier for Canada than the U.S. because half its power already comes from waterfalls; Canada gets 10% of its electricity from coal versus about 31% in the U.S. But it’s still a big chunk of coal, and one among many that’s weakening in a secular way. 

Canadian energy link here. 

*****************************************

China May Waste Half Trillion Dollars On Unneeded Coal Plants

Bloomberg link here. Data points:

• $490 billion: coal power plants than it needs
• currently: 895 gigawatts of operating coal capacity being utilized less than half the time
• another 205 gigawatts under construction
• installed a record 46.9 gigawatts of solar and wind last year 
• additional coal capacity beyond existing plants is only required by 2020 if power generation growth exceeds 4% / year and coal plants are run at a utilization rate of 45% or less
• even existing capacity may come under financial pressure by 2020

Random Note: Whiting's Production In Twin Valley oil field, September, 2016, Vs August, 2016

Refer to this post with regard to these screenshots.

Whiting production in August, 2016, in Twin Valley oil field:

Whiting production in September, 2016, in Twin Valley oil field:

Note:

• 1st - 6th columns: well name, quadrant, section, T, R, county
• 7th column: file number (a five-digit number)
• 8th column: oil production
• 9th column: water production
• 10th column: days
• 11th column: runs
• 12th column: gas
• 13th column: gas sold

September, 2016, Crude Oil Production By Field In North Dakota

Top 20 producing Bakken fields in North Dakota, monthly production per field (descending order, 6th column):

Field	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August	Sept 2016 Production	Sept Wells	Sept Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Aug - to- Sept
Sanish	1,357,449	601	2,259	1.75%	1,284,316	601	2,137	-5.39%
Parshall	1,166,153	438	2,662	-4.34%	1,160,162	446	2,601	-0.51%
Grail	907,322	178	5,097	-12.02%	829,786	179	4,636	-8.55%
Antelope-Sanish	770,322	167	4,613	-9.23%	773,353	171	4,523	0.39%
Corral Creek	828,103	148	5,595	-3.30%	771,081	148	5,210	-6.89%
Reunion Bay	509,052	151	3,371	-8.88%	585,800	152	3,854	15.08%
Alger	648,600	312	2,079	-11.45%	577,213	312	1,850	-11.01%
Spotted Horn	617,749	88	7,020	-11.24%	548,335	88	6,231	-11.24%
Alkali Creek	417,891	143	2,922	-14.71%	523,913	147	3,564	25.37%
Heart Butte	510,456	179	2,852	-3.36%	519,383	179	2,902	1.75%
Camp	490,751	137	3,582	-19.80%	517,194	141	3,668	5.39%
Siverston	568,046	223	2,547	-9.17%	512,404	222	2,308	-9.80%
Blue Buttes	636,129	143	4,448	-6.72%	498,107	143	3,483	-21.70%
Van Hook	487,636	185	2,636	-11.86%	483,348	185	2,613	-0.88%
Banks	610,666	186	3,283	-10.38%	472,996	188	2,516	-22.54%
McGregory Buttes	448,183	95	4,718	-1.15%	439,666	95	4,628	-1.90%
Truax	451,462	171	2,640	-9.20%	406,166	171	2,375	-10.03%
Big Bend	518,988	116	4,474	-1.52%	376,666	116	3,247	-27.42%
Robinson Lake	394,638	172	2,294	-3.91%	372,026	173	2,150	-5.73%
Little Knife	364,274	144	2,530	11.66%	371,112	145	2,559	1.88%

Top 20 producing Bakken fields in North Dakota, crude oil / well (descending order, 8th column)

Field	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August	Sept 2016 Production	Sept Wells	Sept Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Aug - to- Sept
Spotted Horn	617,749	88	7,020	-11.24%	548,335	88	6,231	-11.24%
Long Creek	176,932	27	6,553	-10.35%	141,624	27	5,245	-19.96%
Corral Creek	828,103	148	5,595	-3.30%	771,081	148	5,210	-6.89%
North Fork	217,776	56	3,889	78.62%	290,677	57	5,100	33.48%
Grail	907,322	178	5,097	-12.02%	829,786	179	4,636	-8.55%
McGregory Buttes	448,183	95	4,718	-1.15%	439,666	95	4,628	-1.90%
Antelope-Sanish	770,322	167	4,613	-9.23%	773,353	171	4,523	0.39%
Pershing	187,481	39	4,807	-10.44%	170,794	39	4,379	-8.90%
Lost Bridge	289,573	57	5,080	-10.01%	264,198	61	4,331	-8.76%
Bear Creek	115,625	27	4,282	18.22%	114,026	27	4,223	-1.38%
Johnson Corner	120,996	31	3,903	-0.45%	122,336	31	3,946	1.11%
Bear Den	207,848	44	4,724	2.82%	171,774	44	3,904	-17.36%
Reunion Bay	509,052	151	3,371	-8.88%	585,800	152	3,854	15.08%
Camel Butte	147,928	34	4,351	4.10%	126,051	34	3,707	-14.79%
Camp	490,751	137	3,582	-19.80%	517,194	141	3,668	5.39%
South Fork	103,105	29	3,555	-3.76%	103,529	29	3,570	0.41%
Alkali Creek	417,891	143	2,922	-14.71%	523,913	147	3,564	25.37%
Blue Buttes	636,129	143	4,448	-6.72%	498,107	143	3,483	-21.70%
Eagle Nest	315,273	79	3,991	-8.43%	290,515	84	3,459	-7.85%
Mandaree	290,243	82	3,540	1.10%	282,198	82	3,441	-2.77%

Top 20 Bakken fields in North Dakota, percent change in production month-over-month for the field (descending order, 9th column):

Field	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August	Sept 2016 Production	Sept Wells	Sept Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Aug - to- Sept
Twin Valley	4,223	18	235	-90.36%	24,695	18	1,372	484.77%
North Fork	217,776	56	3,889	78.62%	290,677	57	5,100	33.48%
West Ambrose	213,669	87	2,456	26.03%	273,879	89	3,077	28.18%
Alkali Creek	417,891	143	2,922	-14.71%	523,913	147	3,564	25.37%
North Tobacco Garden	85,853	43	1,997	-22.45%	106,944	44	2,431	24.57%
Oakdale	51,476	24	2,145	-20.02%	60,642	24	2,527	17.81%
Jim Creek	100,235	53	1,891	-26.84%	115,554	53	2,180	15.28%
Reunion Bay	509,052	151	3,371	-8.88%	585,800	152	3,854	15.08%
Elm Tree	98,243	31	3,169	-26.33%	106,221	31	3,426	8.12%
Willow Creek	55,819	27	2,067	1.69%	59,130	27	2,190	5.93%
Dollar Joe	138,492	93	1,489	-7.45%	146,373	93	1,574	5.69%
Pembroke	77,874	52	1,498	-14.70%	82,281	52	1,582	5.66%
Camp	490,751	137	3,582	-19.80%	517,194	141	3,668	5.39%
Chimney Butte	160,315	75	2,138	-3.15%	168,482	75	2,246	5.09%
Park	52,328	36	1,454	-15.47%	54,842	36	1,523	4.80%
Haystack Butte	119,265	57	2,092	-1.66%	124,643	57	2,187	4.51%
Charlson	269,200	107	2,516	-14.67%	277,788	107	2,596	3.19%
Brooklyn	245,880	82	2,999	-7.89%	251,229	82	3,064	2.18%
Little Knife	364,274	144	2,530	11.66%	371,112	145	2,559	1.88%

Bottom 20 fields in North Dakota, percent change in production month-over-month for the field (descending order, 9th column):

Field	August 2016 Production	August Wells	AugustOil/Well/Month	Percent Change July -to-August	Sept 2016 Production	Sept Wells	Sept Oil / Well / Month	Percent Change Aug - to- Sept
Stony Creek	102,698	35	2,934	9.83%	58,707	35	1,677	-42.84%
Elidah	143,471	54	2,657	-9.51%	96,392	54	1,785	-32.81%
Big Bend	518,988	116	4,474	-1.52%	376,666	116	3,247	-27.42%
Williston	77,247	21	3,678	-9.40%	59,320	21	2,825	-23.21%
Sand Creek	282,505	79	3,576	-8.32%	217,328	79	2,751	-23.07%
Banks	610,666	186	3,283	-10.38%	472,996	188	2,516	-22.54%
Blue Buttes	636,129	143	4,448	-6.72%	498,107	143	3,483	-21.70%
Long Creek	176,932	27	6,553	-10.35%	141,624	27	5,245	-19.96%
Baker	204,594	69	2,965	-4.28%	167,650	69	2,430	-18.06%
Poe	302,417	94	3,217	-11.43%	248,560	94	2,644	-17.81%
Clear Creek	182,769	75	2,437	-7.58%	150,260	75	2,003	-17.79%
Bear Den	207,848	44	4,724	2.82%	171,774	44	3,904	-17.36%
Westberg	336,211	96	3,502	19.99%	282,018	99	2,849	-16.12%
East Fork	381,196	104	3,665	-3.45%	320,021	104	3,077	-16.05%
Tobacco Garden	190,016	55	3,455	-2.35%	160,203	55	2,913	-15.69%
Timber Creek	70,089	32	2,190	-8.72%	59,718	32	1,866	-14.80%
Camel Butte	147,928	34	4,351	4.10%	126,051	34	3,707	-14.79%
Moccasin Creek	215,360	59	3,650	-8.09%	184,219	59	3,122	-14.46%
Grinnell	162,482	52	3,125	2.42%	140,740	52	2,707	-13.38%
Hawkeye	366,120	104	3,520	-4.18%	319,177	104	3,069	-12.82%

Note: The spreadsheet from which this is taken includes only 88 fields in North Dakota. All, except two, are Bakken fields.

Note: The huge change in production in Twin Valley was due to almost all or all of Whiting wells in Twin Valley taken off-line for the month of August, or at least, reported no production in Twin Valley for the month of August. In September, these wells were again reporting production. See this post for more information.

Note: the usual disclaimer applies. These tables are done quickly and will have typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.