The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.3 percent on November 1, down from 2.7 percent on October 31.
After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute of Supply Management, the forecasts of the fourth-quarter growth rates of real consumer spending and real nonresidential equipment investment declined from 2.4 percent to 2.1 percent and 4.3 percent to 2.7 percent, respectively. The forecasts of the growth rates of real residential investment and real nonresidential structures investment declined from 3.2 percent to 2.2 percent and 0.5 percent to -0.7 percent, respectively, after the ISM Report and the construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
*******************************
Gasoline Demand
I've said before that if I had to select only metric to track the US economy it would be gasoline demand.
This graph says it all:
Pretty striking, I would say, and I did not hear anyone talking about this precipitous fall. I'm sure the analysts have it all figured out.
Top of the first, Cubs take a remarkable lead, going 3 - 0.
Now, top of the third, bases loaded, one out ... and now a grand slam -- 7 - 0 and we're not even at the halfway point of the game.
The unicorns are prancing. I wonder who got the ball up in the stands! Wow! I hope it was some 7-year-old child. Wow!
Scary fourth inning for the Cubs, but they escape with just one run for the Indians -- it easily (?) could have been four more runs.
I go back and forth, but I suppose, if pressed, I would say I would like to see the Cubs win the series.
Bottom of the 7th, still a 5-run game.
Wow, another two-run home. 9 -2 the final. What a game!
****************************
The Colonial Explosion
The Colonial Pipeline explosion -- so where are all the protests? Why is President Obama or Hillary Clinton not out front and center telling us that this is another example of the danger of pipelines.
The Washington Post provides the answer to the discerning reader. This is the reality: there is no way the northeast is going to get enough gasoline without pipelines. Shut down the Colonial and Americans will see how really fragile the energy grid is in this country and The Washington Post points it out:
Colonial’s Line No. 1, 36 inches in diameter, carries approximately
1.3 million barrels a day of gasoline from Houston to Linden, N.J.,
branching off along the way to provide more than a third of the supplies
for the entire East Coast.
“I think the issue of pipeline safety
is important, given several recent high-profile accidents,” said Jason
Bordoff, director of Columbia University’s center on global energy
policy. “It certainly is a reminder of the vulnerability of East Coast
gasoline supply.”
Bordoff said the Energy Department
had considered creating a reserve for refined products after Hurricane
Sandy, in part because of the East Coast’s dependence on limited
pipeline infrastructure. Hurricane Katrina also caused gasoline
shortages in places such as Atlanta because refineries along the Gulf of
Mexico could not supply the southeastern portion of the pipeline
network. But no reserve has been created.
Let's see -- when was Hurricane Sandy? 2012. Four years ago and no Plan B.
The second thing: with the huge premium increases in ObamaCare, it seems everyone is reporting how terrible 2017 ObamaCare is going to be. Even HHS seems to be giving up. Every media outlet from The Washington Post to The New York Times to The Wall Street Journal implies that ObamaCare is at its tipping point. When Obama leaves office, ObamaCare will follow him.
So,
a) top Democrats are going wobbly on Hillary (Obama and Rendell)
b) even liberal news media reporting how high ObamaCare premiums are going
and the trifecta,
c) will be when Putin's Northern Fleet arrives at Syria, which could be this weekend, just before the election, next Tuesday..
Maybe I'm reading too much into all this but one certainly wonders.
The bad news doesn't have to get voters to switch their vote from Hillary to Trump, the bad news simply has to keep the wavering Hillary supporter from standing in line and voting.
*****************************
Hillary Attacks Comey: A "Huge" Mistake
I don't know if any politician is "happy" with FBI Director Comey -- neither the Republicans nor the Democrats. Comey was accused of ending the Clinton inquiry prematurely and then he was accused of re-opening a case that was supposedly closed.
The vast majority of Americans really don't follow these things that closely. But they do have respect for the FBI director. So when some politician -- especially the likes of a Hillary Clinton attacks the nation's top law enforcer (DOJ Loretta Lynch is seen as a political appointee -- which she is) -- this won't play well in Peoria.
Former DNC chairman, Ed Rendell, was "partially" correct when he said it was a mistake for Hillary to attack the FBI director. To be "fully" correct, he would have had to say that it was a "huge" mistake for Hillary to attack the FBI director. Hillary does not have time to "walk this back" before next Tuesday.
It will be interesting to see tomorrow's USC-Los Angeles Times poll.
Monthly insurance premiums for popular plans on HealthCare.gov are rising by 25 percent
on average next year, according to government data. But the increases
will be more dramatic in certain parts of the country, the numbers show.
Take
somebody living in Phoenix, where the cost of the premium for a
benchmark plan is growing by a whopping 145 percent to $507 a month in
2017 when compared to this year, according to an analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation, which tracks how premiums are changing in some major cities.
In
Birmingham, Ala., health care premiums for a similar plan are climbing
by 71 percent next year to $492 a month. And in Oklahoma City they are
growing by 67 percent.
Premium rate rise in major cities in these states:
Arizona: 145%, to $507/person -- $2,000 for a family of four; with high deductible; high co-pay
Alabama: 71%, to $492 / person -- ditto
Oklahoma: 67%
Personally, I don't see a lot of difference between $507 and $492, but then again, maybe that's just me.
Premium rates will generally be greater in rural areas than in major urban areas according to the linked article.
*****************************
Movie Review
IDMB movie review of Leonardo Di Caprio's global warming movie -- hoping to win a Nobel Peace Prize, no doubt:
Basically DeCaprio was told by Al Gore (who has made a hundred millions of dollars by preaching global warming after he retired from political life, gained a bunch of weight and had nothing to do) that anthropological global warming is real, and from that point onward DeCaprio was convinced. LOL!
Then DeCaprio presents the ole “97% of scientists” lie that has traveled around the world. In reality 66% of scientists have no opinion about AGW — Those opinions were conveniently thrown out of the messaged John Cook study. Then DeCaprio presents cherry picked anecdotal evidence, without ever questioning whether it’s a case of Texas Sharpshooting. Why didn’t he present the Vostok Station / Greenland ice core data to put the last 100 years IN PERSPECTIVE versus the last 5,000 years, 11,000 years and 420,000 years?
And if he’s such a big fan of anecdotal evidence over temperature data then why didn’t he mention that Greenland used to be green? That 20,000 years ago New York was covered by a mile thick glacier? Why didn’t DeCaprio interview Patrick Moore, the co-founder of Greenpeace, who is not part of “Big Oil” and doesn’t buy into AGW?
Because DeCaprio suffers from confirmation bias. The rest of this propaganda piece (I mean movie) continues under the ASSUMPTION that humans are causing the planet to warm and we all need to agree to tax ourselves more. No thanks.
Russia's Northern Fleet, most recent update: the last ping was 20 hours ago, so not much change from previous report. The fleet's location 20 hours ago was at the east end of the strait separating Malta from Sicily -- so twenty hours ago, just slightly northeast of Malta, southeast of Sicily. This is about 6/11ths or about halfway between the Strait of Gibralter and Syria. The fleet has transited the Strait of Gibralter on October 26; they may have loitered for a day in the western Mediterranean. October 26 - October 31 (twenty hours ago): 5 days. So, about five more days to destination (Syria). Arriving about November 5, two or three days before US election?
**********************************
Oil History -- Courtesy of EAI
Whale oil. From EIA today:
On Tuesday, the Cleveland Indians are set to host the Chicago Cubs in game six of the 2016 Major League Baseball World Series.
In the 68 years since the last title for the Cleveland Indians, and the 108 years since the last World Series title for the Chicago Cubs, energy production and consumption patterns in the United States have changed a great deal…
In 1908, the last time the Cubs won the World Series, the United States produced less than half a million barrels per day (b/d) of oil, with crude oil production having only started approximately 50 years earlier.
At that time, crude oil was mainly refined to produce kerosene for use in lamps. The first Ford Model T automobile was produced in 1908, kicking off a shift in demand for petroleum products from kerosene for lamps to gasoline for automobiles….
The last time the Cleveland Indians won the World Series, in 1948, the United States produced 5.5 million b/d of crude oil. Crude oil production had been steadily increasing since declines in the 1930s and would continue to increase until production declines in the 1970s. --- EIA
The intense whale hunting drove the number of sperm whales down appreciably. It's estimated that nearly 236,000 whales were killed in the 19th century alone.
And then, in 1846, the industry reached peak sperm whale oil.
Whalers, after plundering the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, were having to chase smaller whales in colder and more extreme waters, while having to utilize bigger ships over longer periods of time. This led to fewer capital returns, causing the price of whale oil to double.
But the industry peaked at this time for another reason — and it had nothing to do with what was happening on the oceans. Rather, it was the invention of a new fuel source, one that, quite literally, saved the whales.
In 1849, Dr. Abraham Gesner, a Canadian geologist, figured out a way to distill kerosene from petroleum. His method allowed for the cheap and easy production of the much desired lamp fuel. Moreover, unlike sperm whale oil, it could be stored for longer periods of time and it didn't produce an offensive odor.
Gesner's innovation sparked the rise of the American petroleum industry in the 1850s, and by the end of the decade there were 40 kerosene plants in the United States. During the 1860s, John D. Rockefeller and Samuel Andrews worked to improve the efficiency of petroleum processing. Together, and backed by an army of investors, they set up a network of kerosene distilleries that would later develop into Standard Oil.
Combine this with a sperm whale oil industry that had just peaked, and the market for spermaceti quickly evaporated.
Had we run out of sperm whales and had there been no petroleum, we would probably be burning coal for electricity and we would all be driving EVs.
*************
Average Price Of WTI For Calendar Year 2016
This probably won't make sense to anyone but I want to capture this for the archives.
In late 2015 or early 2016, I set up five scenarios and "predicted" the average price of WTI for each calendar month in 2016 given those five scenarios. Had things turned out differently, the scenarios would have mattered; with the price of oil where it is today, the scenarios no longer matter.
At the end of each month, I replaced the "predicted" price of WTI for each scenario with the "actual" price of WTI for the month as taken from the television crawler or the Yahoo!Finance page as a proxy.
My thesis and process was this:
Saudi's national budget is based on $100 oil.
there is a Saudi price, a Brent price, and a WTI price. Saudi oil probable sells at a premium to the other two (right, wrong, indifferent -- probably not particularly significant for this exercise)
Saudi will hemorrhage cash at oil prices below $100
it was fairly obvious in late 2015 / early 2016, that we would not see an average of $100-oil for calendar year 2016 (what the Saudis needed)
but if they could at least average $80-oil for the year, maybe things would not be so bad
so I developed five scenarios (high to low) to see how the annual average would work out -- and at what price of oil had to be each following month to get to $80 oil
the January - October data below is "actual" -- with the disclaimer noted above
in four of the five scenarios I put end-of-year oil at $80 and $85
even at end-of-year oil at $80 and $85, average price of oil for the entire year will barely average $50
if oil gets to $50 for the remaining two months, the average price of oil for the year will have been about $44, almost half the bare minimum ($80) that Saudi would need
to get to $80 average for the entire calendar year of 2016 (last column below), oil will have to go to about $260/bbl for the last two months of 2016 -- probably not gonna happen
It will be interesting if the chart for 2017 looks much different than the calendar for 2016:
Scenario One
Scenario Two
Scenario Three
Scenario Four
Scenario Five
To Get to $80
January
35
35
35
35
35
35
February
35
35
35
35
35
35
March
35
35
35
35
35
35
April
45
45
45
45
45
45
May
47
47
47
47
47
47
June
50
50
50
50
50
50
July
45
45
45
45
45
45
August
45
45
45
45
45
45
September
45
45
45
45
45
45
October
48
48
48
48
48
48
November
80
80
80
80
50
260
December
80
85
85
85
50
260
2016 Average
49
50
50
50
44
79
*******************************
Rise of the Rocket Girls: The Women Who Propelled US, From Missiles to the Moon To Mars
Nathalia Holt
c. 2016
This is really cool.
Some time ago I read a book on the woman who discovered/developed -- I am not sure of the correct word -- the rocket propellant that was instrumental in the US space program. I have notes of that book at this post.
I see now another book on the same subject, or at least similar subject, the one by Nathalia Holt. I immediately checked the index for Mary Morgan Sherman. Not there. It will be interesting to read this new book in light of the older book.
There are indications that Ford will discontinue the Flex in 2020 or thereabouts. I don't know anything about the Flex. A google search brought up this nice 2012 article comparing the top eleven (11) three row SUVs with the most cargo room. Ford Flex was tied wit the Nissan Armada in last place. The narrative left no indication why Ford Flex was rated tenth:
The Flex is one of the most stylish three-row crossovers on the market,
although its squared-off design and retro-wagon proportions can be
polarizing. Buyers choose between a 287-hp, 3.5-liter V-6 with front- or
all-wheel drive, and a twin-turbo 365-hp EcoBoost V-6 that is uniquely
paired with all-wheel drive. The Flex can tow up to 4500 pounds, and the
options list includes the MyFord Touch infotainment system and
inflatable rear seatbelts.
For Explorer was ninth. But not to worry: Ford's Expedition and Ford's Lincoln Navigator were both ranked fourth (tie). Overall, looking at the list, it appears GM and its multiple divisions had the most SUV models at the top of the list, and throughout the list.
I was surprised: it appears Fiat Chrysler does not make a three-row SUV. Detroit News Journal, July 18, 2016: Fiat Chrysler may build big SUV and compact pickup. From the article:
Developing a large SUV based on the Ram platform would give Fiat
Chrysler a large, profitable SUV and give the automaker a vehicle that
could go head to head with General Motors' and Ford's large SUVs. A
smaller Ram pickup would expand the Ram brand and give it a truck that
would likely appeal to lifestyle buyers.
********************************* Climate Change
Everything I've been reading the past few months suggests that this winter will be colder than usual, and that in the longer view (next few years) there is evidence that we can look forward to cooler, rather than warmer, temperatures.
Global gasoline demand will rise as long as crude stays below $60/b,
and a shortage of Asian gasoline refining capacity will drive US exports
higher, [according to an analyst].
"Any way that we look at the future refineries under construction [in
Asia], they cannot produce enough gasoline." Fesharaki expects US net exports of refined products to keep rising.
Cool, huh?
Other data points in the Platts article:
in one decade, the US has made a dramatic swing from 3.9 million b/d of net imports to 2.3 million b/d in net exports (July, 2016) -- insert "Bakken" or "shale revolution" here
this was the decade in which Obama famously said, "we can't just drill our way to lower prices"
as time goes by, there is a gasoline shortage worldwide that only US refiners can supply -- analyst
expect huge amounts of exports of US gasoline to all over Asia, without which Asia cannot balance its system
Today, RBN Energy goes into much greater depth on this story. See below.
The Shale Revolution’s impact on energy markets extends far beyond
increased U.S. production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas
liquids. The new ability to wring vast volumes of valuable hydrocarbons
from shale also has had a profound effect on refined-products economics,
and on U.S. self-sufficiency regarding gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
As shown in Figure 1, in only 11 years, the U.S. has flipped from being a
major importer (2005 net imports of refined products totaled 2.5 MMb/d)
to its new status as a major exporter (2016 net exports totaled 2.5
MMb/d).
Consequently, there has been a 5.0 MMb/d reversal in U.S.
refined product flows. Before the Shale Revolution took hold in
2008-09, the U.S. depended on imports from a variety of sources,
including Latin America, Europe, and Africa.
By 2011, the U.S. had become a net exporter of refined
products, with exports to Latin America eading the way, and
with exports to Asia and Europe on the rise as well.
That flow reversal in refined-product flows is extraordinary, and
it’s likely that (to quote from Bachman-Turner Overdrive), “You ain’t
seen nothin’ yet,”.
Net product exports are
expected to grow to a total of almost 3.5 MMb/d by 2025, and what is
most significant is that much of that growth will come from gasoline
exports.
Instead of trying to manipulate the crude oil market in October, 2014, Saudi Arabia should have been building refineries for their product. They should have started doing that five years ago, but even had they announced plans as late as October, 2014, it's very likely they could have avoided their trillion dollar mistake.
WTI trades at $47.02 right now. Bad, bad news for Saudi Arabia.
*******************************
The Market
Power lunch: market not so powerful; Dow 30 down 100 points, and oil now down below $47. Saudi may be liquidating securities to raise cash.
Early morning trading: no traction. Dow 30 is down 40 points. With OPEC set to announce significant cuts (maybe, possibly, maybe not), oil is up 24 cents (woo-hoo) and now trading solidly (LOL) above $47.
Pre-Market: up about 30 points.
Shell: profits rose 18 percent compared to a year earlier, beating analysts' estimates, but the oil producer also lowered 2017 CAPEX.
BP: also beat analysts' forecast, but profits fell by nearly half yoy; will also cut 2017 CAPEX.
OXY: lost 15 cents/share but revenue came in above estimates.
But this is the real surprise: Anadarko Petroleum lost 89 cents per share which was much, much wider than analysts' forecast of 57 cents. I could be wrong but I thought Anadarko was one of the five or six independent "darlings" of Wall Street. Investors are taking the news in stride: shares are up about 1.6% in pre-market trading.
Reuters: "oil prices rise from one-month lows after OPEC approves strategy." This was the lead story over at Yahoo!Finance.
rises from one-month lows
OPEC
strategy
Before reading the story, I checked the "Futures." WTI is up a whopping ten cents, up to $46.96. Give me a break: "oil prices rise from one-month lows after OPEC approves strategy."
I don't even have the energy to write any more following that headline. What a bunch of crock. Up ten cents, well below $50, and Reuters attributes this to "OPEC strategy." LOL. Why do I even bother.
Quick. YouTube. Put me out of this misery. It's been awhile since I've heard this one:
For the second weekend in a row, more than 50 people were shot in Chicago as the number of homicides this year rose to more than 50 percent above the same period last year. [55% according to the headline.]
More than 660 people have been killed in the city so far this year. The number of people shot in Chicago this year is more than a thousand above what it was this time last year, from 2,620 to 3,795.
From Friday afternoon to late Sunday, 10 people were killed and 41 others were wounded in shootings across Chicago, in addition to a man shot to death by police on Saturday.
Among the wounded was a 78-year-old man who was dragged out of a car in Englewood on Sunday and shot in the head. He was listed in serious condition.
Being reported nowhere except in local Chicago newspapers.
Original Post
Wall Street Journal. Of all the data points, this is the one that really, really stood out. I can't put my arms around 600 homicides in ten months; is that good, bad, indifferent. But this puts it in perspective: homicides in Chicago are up 45% from the same period one year ago. Up 45%.
If "anything" else resulted in a 45% increase in deaths in one city the CDC, the NIH, the WHO, would all be called in to determine the cause, and find a cure.
I don't think this has even been mentioned by the presidential candidates this past year, even in the primaries. But we sure heard about the fracking that caused the lead problem in Detroit (Hillary). Homicides, whether it was 50 or 100 or 1,000 may or may not mean something, but when it is a 45% increase over the previous year and the federal government seems unconcerned ... wow.
And as one reads the article, it gets worse. The rate in Chicago is "driving" the national homicide rate which is projected to rise over 30% from 2014. Again, if this was due to something the oil and gas industry was doing, the Feds would be all over it. The UN seems uninterested. I haven't seen any NIH study that explains it. The CDC, the World Health Organization, where are they?
The mayor helps us put it in perspective (thank goodness). Back in the 1990s more than 900 people were murdered each year -- so, apparently things aren't as bad as they seem. As the mayor has said: the 1990s trend has been reversed.
It looks like one cause for the increase: the police cracked down on gangs, broke them up, and now with more fragmentation, more chaos. There are now more than 600 gangs in Chicago and more than 100,000 members. Somehow I kind of knew this would get back to blaming police or police activity or past police strategy and/or practices. If the police had just ignored the gangs, I guess, the homicide rate would be way down. Wait, didn't we just hear that there were 900 homicides back in the 1990s?
If the murder rate has increased 45%, one wonders what else is occurring where these murders are taking place.
The article comes up with a lot of suggestions why the murder rate has increased, but the obvious question is why does Chicago seem to be the outlier among American cities when it comes to homicides. Why is it Chicago, not New York? Why is it Chicago, and not Los Angeles? Why is it Chicago, and not Detroit? Why is it Chicago, and not Baltimore, or Washington (DC), or Miami? One would think the NIH, the CDC, the WHO, someone would be interested.
The article is worth a read; lots of things to ponder.
**************************
Notes to the Granddaughters
I missed the Monday night football game tonight -- neighborhood Halloween party. But not to worry: ESPN has something that in less than five (5) minutes of video recaps the entire game, not just the MNF game but every NFL football game played the most recent weekend. No wonder NFL ratings are in the tank. NFL football is no longer "must-see" football. One can find re-caps / highlights 24/7.
It is quite amazing how far we have come. They say NFL ratings are down. Perhaps for any given game in "real time," but overall, my hunch is more eyeballs than ever on NFL football if one aggregates all the venues and all the minutes devoted to NFL. In fact, I understand there's something called the NFL Network. For all I know it's in my Spectrum (formerly known as Timer Warner) package. I haven't bothered going through the list of channels in my package. The only network I'm ever looking for seems to be the one airing the NASCAR race. For the past two weekends, I think NASCAR has been on NBCSN, but the championship race will be on NBC?
