Evening Wrap -- March 8, 2016 -- Nothing About The Bakken; For The Bakken, Scroll Down Or To The Sidebar At The Right

Updates

March 18, 2016: buried deep in the post, were the results of the poll asking readers if they thought the Fed would raise rates. Folks are paying attention. 82% said the Fed would not raise rates in March. The Fed did not raise rates. 
 

Original Post

 

I was gone all evening, watching our 9-year-old play soccer; she was invited to play with one of the league's team of 12-year-olds. On the way over, worried about her safety, I told her that the older girls will really kick very, very hard, "implying that she needed to watch out for herself." She replied, "It's not about kicking the ball hard, it's about one skills."

Needless to say, she more than held her own. She was outmatched much of the time, but there were more than enough great efforts to offset the others. But never was she truly outclassed. She held her own, and near the end, was smiling quite broadly after some particularly good playing.

So, now I'm back. I see I posted the wrong wells coming off the confidential list today. I forgot that March is the 3rd month, not the 4th month. Anyway, it's been corrected. I must be getting old.

Now, that I'm back, I will check up on the news.

OH, NO, not again! Trump wins another open primary? NO, another Chipotle restaurant shut down when workers became ill. This time in Massachusetts. Having lived four years in Boston, this does not surprise me. This time in a "suburb" outside of Boston. Reuters reporting four workers became ill:

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc, which is trying to recover from a series of food-borne illness outbreaks, temporarily shut a Massachusetts restaurant after four employees fell sick.

The restaurant in the town of Billerica, outside Boston, was closed for a full cleaning, company spokesman Chris Arnold said by email.

Chipotle's shares fell 3.8 percent to $504.50 in extended trading.

"No customer illnesses are connected to this restaurant. Any employee who reported feeling ill will be held out of the restaurant until they fully recover," Arnold added. 

You just have to wonder.  I would normally say I'm glad I eat at McDonald's but I don't eat at McDonald's much any more, either. I'll come back to that story in about six months.

Continuing to see what else happened while I was out for the evening, but first I have to check up on the history of a song, "Jubilee Street." I was sure it was a Leonard Cohen song; I was wrong. It's a Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds song apparently, though wiki doesn't explicitly say who wrote it.

Jubilee Street, Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds

There are so many articles on energy and investing, but I'm not even going to go there. This is not an investment site. Having said that, things certainly look interesting. It will be interesting to see how energy-dominated portfolios are going to look like five years from now. I'm inappropriately bullish.

Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins
Turkey (the country) is a mess and it's getting worse. No links. Trust me.

Somalia? We've seen this movie before. Afghanistan. Libya. Yemen.

Aetna has some choice words for ObamaCare.

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Mammoth Lakes Slammed With Snow

Updates

From IceAge, March 9, 2016, Mammoth Lakes, CA, update:

Eight feet (244 cm) of snow since Saturday.

With white-out conditions continuing, California’s Mammoth Mountain dug out from another 4 feet of weekend snow yesterday.

As if that weren’t enough, up to 4 additional feet of snow were predicted by the time the storm ends on Tuesday morning.

Original Post

Global warming? LOL. Do you wonder where the Kennedy family will be this weekend? Mammoth Lakes, California, skiing powder. Mammoth Lakes is east of San Francisco. They received a bit of snow overnight and will get a bit more. Los Angeles Times is reporting:

Avalanche cannons were blasting Monday, as Mammoth Mountain dug out from another 4 feet of weekend snow. In the midst of that, more snow arrived Monday with white-out conditions continuing.

As much as 4 additional feet were predicted by the time the storm passes Tuesday morning, giving a total since Saturday of up to 8 feet of new snow.

So much for the Kennedys telling us they are worried their grandchildren will never see snow again.

By the way, British Columbia is also seeing record snowfall.

According to Environment Canada, a total of 17 cm of the white stuff blanketed the city over the weekend, with a record 9.8 cm falling on Sunday.

The previous snowfall record for March 6 in Fort St. John was 6.6 cm in 1966.

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It's not just Chicago that's seeing a record number of homicides this year, now it's Los Angeles. Los Angeles Times is also reporting that killings have surged 27.5% so far this year.

In his weekly report to the Police Commission, LAPD Chief Charlie Beck has cautioned that crime numbers can fluctuate dramatically early in the year, when the department compares only a few weeks of numbers to previous years.

But police continue to grapple with some of the same factors that have driven crime in recent months, particularly violent offenses such as homicides and shootings. Beck noted last week that 10 of a dozen shootings reported over the prior weekend were considered gang-related.

HUDS.

Beverly Hills Cop
But that's a pretty good comment: "numbers can fluctuate dramatically early in the year." I'll have to remember that one. Numbers apparently settle down by October, getting ready for the holidays like the rest of us.

I'll end with the poll results in which we asked whether readers thought the Fed would raise rates:

• yes: 18%
• no: 82%

Incredible. Folks are paying attention on that one. The Wall Street Journal is betting the Fed "stands pat."

That's enough. Looks like I didn't miss anything. Futures are green.

At social media now:

Three (3) New Permits -- March 8, 2016

Active rigs:

	3/8/2016	03/08/2015	03/08/2014	03/08/2013	03/08/2012
Active Rigs	33	114	191	186	205

Three (3) new permits:

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
• Comments: permits for a 3-well pad

Producing wells completed:

• 30815, 705, XTO, Klamm 34X-9H, Siverston, t2/16; cum --
• 30816, 568, XTO, Klamm 34X-9DXA, Siverston, t2/16; cum --
• 31046, 1,018, XTO, Homer Federal 14X-32B, Grinnell, t2/16; cum --

Temporarily abandoned:

• 18408, TA/1,945, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H,  Sanish, t2/10; cum 821K 12/13;

Only one well coming off confidential list Wednesday:

• 31760, 2,352, BR, CCU Audubon 3-7-22TFH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum 21K 1/16;

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31760, see above, BR, CCU Audubon 3-7-22TFH, Corral Creek:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
1-2016	15272	11936
12-2015	4920	0

How Fast The Sweet Areas Of The Bakken Are Changing -- March 8, 2016

Look at how quickly the Bakken is changing despite the phenomenal plunge in the number of active rigs.

Look at this graphic taken November 3, 2015:

Pretty impressive, huh? Again, the graphic above was taken only four months ago.

How does that area look now?

This graphic was taken today. I've retained the "A" and "B" markers only to make it easier to compare the graph below to the graph above. In the link from November 3, 2015 (linked above), there is a discussion about areas marked by the "A" and "B."

I'm not going to go through these again, but I bet most of these wells shown as confidential are DUCs. It would be nice if the NDIC would add another color code for DUCs, say "mallard green."

Active Rigs Hit New Post-Boom Record Low: 33 -- March 8, 2016

Active rigs in North Dakota hit a new post-boom low: 33.

	3/8/2016	03/08/2015	03/08/2014	03/08/2013	03/08/2012
Active Rigs	33	114	191	186	205

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The Katie Ledecky Page 

It's a long article. Bottom line: Katie Ledecky, with close ties to Williston, ND, is a long distant swimmer who pretty much owns the sport. But now, she is taking a break from the long races, seeing what she can do in the sprints, such as the 50-, 100-, and 200-meter freestyles plus the 200 and 400 individual medleys.

Analysts suggest she cannot medal this year in the sprints, ruling out a 7-event program at the 2016 Summer Olympics for Ledecky.

From The Washington Post, March 5, 2016:

ORLANDO — For 72 hours here, Katie Ledecky got to see how the other half lives. The half that doesn’t necessarily need to swim 70,000 grueling yards every week in practice to achieve its goals. The half that measures its times in fractions of seconds, not whole ones. The half that doesn’t set or threaten world records every time they jump in a pool — and that sometimes finishes fourth, or 18th.

For one weekend only, Ledecky, the 18-year-old freestyle phenom, got to experience life as a very good sprinter, not the all-time-great distance specialist she has become. Her program for the Arena Pro Swim Series Orlando event, held at the aging but oddly charming YMCA Aquatic Center, featured none of the events she has come to dominate internationally, with world records in each: the 400-, 800- and 1,500-meter freestyles.

“I’ve probably had six weeks of the best training I’ve ever had,” said Ledecky, who won five gold medals at last summer’s FINA World Championships, with an unprecedented sweep of the 200, 400, 800 and 1,500 frees. “Just a really good, dedicated period of training. . . . I don’t need to swim [the distance events] in every single meet. It’s good to take one meet off from those.”

Ledecky’s standing in the 400 and 800 is virtually unassailable. No woman in the past four years has been within three seconds of her best time in the former, or eight seconds in the latter. The only real question, barring something unforeseen, is whether she will improve her own world records.  

“She’s really rewriting the rules of the sport,” Franklin said Friday, one day after Ledecky beat her and three other former Olympians in a star-studded 200-free field with a winning time of 1 minute 55.73 seconds, “and to be a part of that, and watching it happen in person, is really a spcial experience.”

Go to the article to see how she did in the sprints.

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Global Warming Crisis Doesn't Justify 

Current North Dakota National Guard Authorizations

The "National Guard" is often called in to help following major weather disasters. With the news that there has been no global warming in the past 58 years (NOAA data); and, the fact, that there is little likelihood that rising sea levels will affect North Dakota before the end of the century, it only makes sense for the warmists to cut Federal positions in North Dakota and move them to states like Florida and California (with more electoral votes, also).

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:

Guard units in Mott, Rugby, Bottineau and Grafton will be dissolved, and it fell to recently appointed Adj. Gen. Alan Dohrmann to tell community leaders this week that their long relationship with guard detachments will end in August 2017.

Dohrmann said the cutbacks are necessary because North Dakota lost federal authorization for 300 guard positions as part of a national strategy to decrease overall guard numbers. With slightly fewer than 3,000 guardsmen and women, North Dakota is more than 400 below its authorized strength and it was tough to argue for positions it hasn’t been able to fill, Dohrmann said.

In fact, the North Dakota guard was unable to fill 300 positions and the positions were simply eliminated and probably moved to Florida and California (with more electoral votes, also).

We faced the same issue when I was on active duty in the USAF. It was very interesting how local commanders learned to play the game of manipulating "positions" and "personnel" -- two very different things. For example, higher headquarters always kept an ENT surgeon position at USAF Hospital Grand Forks, knowing that it would never be filled, but if unfilled, the local commander could fill it with a family practitioner that we were not authorized (based on patient population) but the family practitioner was much more important to us than an ENT surgeon. We had excellent ENT support in the civilian Grand Forks community.

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Speaking of Rising Sea Levels

The New York Times reports that the sea level could rise as much as 3 - 4 feet by 2100, the fast rise in 27 years, about one-half inch a year. Of course, the report from which that was taken was flawed; see below. 

From The New American:

Climate Depot called attention to statements about the sea-level study made by another climate expert, Judith Curry, Ph.D., who was profiled in a recent article posted by The New American, “Meet the Climate Realists.” (Curry is the former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.) Curry wrote on her blog on February 23:

So, what to make of all this?

Sea level rise is the main “danger” from human caused climate change (any increase in extreme weather events is hypothesized rather demonstrated using historical data, with possible exception of heat waves in a few regions).

At a presentation that I made earlier this year to CEOs of small electric cooperatives, one participant was surprised by what I had to say about sea level rise — he hadn’t realized that there had been sea level rise prior to 1950. I.e., like “climate change”, all sea level rise has been sold as caused by humans.

Sea level has overall been rising for thousands of years; however, as the Kopp et al. paper points out, there have been century scale periods of lowering sea level in the recent millennia. It is not clear from my cursory reading as to whether meaningful decadal and multi-decadal variations in sea level can be discerned from their data.

The key issue is whether the sea level rise during the past 50 years reflect an acceleration in sea level rise. The IPCC figure 3.14 suggests that there is no acceleration, given the large rates of sea level rise in the first half of the 20th century. Until we have an understanding of variations in decadal and multi-decadal sea level rise, we can’t make a convincing argument as to acceleration. [Emphasis added.]

Much more at the link. 

EIA Forecasts Continued Crude Oil Production Decline Across US Shale In April, 2016 -- March 8, 2016

From EIA: second-biggest US shale output drop is forecast for April, 2016 -- reported by Reuters --

U.S. shale oil production in April is expected to chalk up the second-largest monthly decline on record, and the sixth straight monthly decrease.

Total output is expected to fall by 106,000 barrels per day to 4.87 million bpd.

That would be the second largest monthly drop after a record 121,000 bpd-decline in January 2015, based on data dating back to 2007.

Production from the Bakken Formation in North Dakota is expected to fall 28,000 bpd, the fifth consecutive monthly drop, while output from the Eagle Ford Formation is forecast to drop 58,000 bpd, the ninth consecutive monthly slide.

Production from the Permian Basin in West Texas is expected to fall 4,000 bpd, the first decline since June.

Oil production per rig rose to new records across the shale plays, jumping 6 bpd in the Bakken, 10 bpd in the Eagle Ford and 6 bpd in the Permian.

The biggest regional decline was expected to be in Eagle Ford, down 0.2 bcfd from March to 6.3 bcfd in April, the lowest level of output in the basin since April 2014.

In the Marcellus Formation, the biggest U.S. shale gas field, in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, April output was expected to decline by 0.1 bcfd from March to 17.3 bcfd. That would be the second monthly decline in a row and the biggest decline since July 2013.

Of course, this is all moot if Hillary Clinton wins the election. She says she will "ban" fracking if elected president. She has probably just lost Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, if anyone in those states is paying attention.

Oh, speaking of fracking and risk to the environment, midwestenergynews is reporting:

A multi-year study has found that coal beds, not fracking, are most likely to blame for methane found in water wells in an Ohio county.

Her work in documenting current conditions meshes with comments and recommendations for baseline well testing noted by a panel at the American Association for the Advancement on Science (AAAS) on February 14. That panel asked the question, “Does hydraulic fracturing allow gas to reach drinking water?”

Oil and gas drilling in Carroll County and other parts of Ohio has expanded dramatically since 2008 due to the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

Fracking pumps millions of gallons of water, sand and chemicals into wells in order to crack and prop open petroleum-bearing rock so oil and natural gas can flow out.
Concern about possible contamination led Townsend-Small and her colleagues to sample groundwater for acids, salts and methane over a three-year period. The project was motivated by a combination of scientific inquiry and citizen concerns in the area.

And the results? The results confirmed fracking is not putting any methane into ground water. 

War On Coal -- March 8, 2016

According to EIA: just slightly less than 14 gigawatts (GW) of electricity sourced by steam coal retired in 2015. However, note: The coal-fired generating units retired in 2015 tended to be older and smaller in capacity than the coal generation fleet that continues to operate.

Was that replaced? If so how? I'm sure there will be better updates later and better sources, but for now, this source:

In 2015, those particularly excellent trends continued. Though we won’t have complete data until next spring, the country will likely install 7.4 gigawatts of solar energy through Dec. 31 of this year.

Wind power is also flying, with almost 3.6 gigawatts coming online in the first three quarters of this year and more than 13,000 megawatts now under construction.

So:

• 7.4 GW: solar
• 16.6 GW: wind
• Total: 24 GW (optimistic estimate)

Explain To Me, Again, The Bakken Decline -- March 8, 2016

I track the four Zavanna Simmental wells here; these are east of Williston. Note the jump in production between December, 2015, and January, 2016, both 31-day months of production.

This is one of them, updated:

• 28594, 1,676, Zavanna, Simmental 2-11 4TFH, Long Creek, 50 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t5/15; cum 127K 1/16:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	22607	21171	32504	53842	51510	1870
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	10600	10521	50977	22086	20295	1329
BAKKEN	11-2015	7	2790	2573	14273	6658	3240	3314
BAKKEN	10-2015	27	19573	19100	39436	37890	27163	10325
BAKKEN	9-2015	20	8862	0	38735	14784	12816	1670
BAKKEN	8-2015	19	13378	12439	16782	21625	19946	1396
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	20661	19351	25230	34227	33461	304
BAKKEN	6-2015	12	16216	15785	17010	22997	17091	5727
BAKKEN	5-2015	12	12283	12042	13745	9825	0	9646

I did not find a sundry form that might have helped explain the surge in production (shown in red). Gas lift was installed / effective as of August 2, 15, some three to four months earlier.

Some data points from the well file:

• spud July 20, 2014 
• TD: 21,835'; October 23, 2014
• total drilling days: 28 days
• 94% within first bench, TF
• gas lift effective 8-2-15
• Three Forks well
• first bench: estimated to 25' thick
• target zone: 6' thick 
• first bench thinned to about 2' beginning at approximately 17,465 feet
• drilled toward the south
• 94% borehole within the first bench
• "The Three Forks formation is a complex petroleum system within the Williston Basin that is sourced by the Lower Bakken Member."
• "There are varying facies within the Three Forks which are commonly referred to as 'benches.' The first bench of hte Three Forks is  the zone of interest for this well. It is comprised of lime mudstone-packstone ..."
• "The overall gas trend of this well suggests the gas was the highest in the areas proximal to or within the ideal taret zone. Background gas averaged 1,800 units, with gas shows ranging from approx 1,500 - 4,500 units. the largest gas reading was near the end of the lateral, just above the target zone, and measured 4,491 units at a measured depth of 21,813 feet.
• This well had significantly lower gas readings in comparison to the other three vertical/curves drilled on the Simmental location. The Middle Bakken has gas shows ranging from 113 - 208 units.

The Zavanna Gust wells in this same section have been taken off line or are on the SI/NC list. 

Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Active rigs:

	3/8/2016	03/08/2015	03/08/2014	03/08/2013	03/08/2012
Active Rigs	35	114	191	186	205

RBN Energy: announcement of a new energy executive workshop.

Kuwait balks on oil production freeze. Link here.

Chevron:

CVX to cut spending over next two years (2017 - 2018):

Oil and natural gas producer Chevron Corp said on Tuesday it will slash its budget by at least 17 percent for the next two years as it finishes construction on major expansion projects and works to save cash as oil prices sit near 10-year lows.

The company said it plans to spend between $17 billion to $22 billion annually in 2017 and 2018. For 2016, the company has already announced it would spend $26.6 billion.

CVX opens huges Gargon project.

Chevron Corp.’s $54 billion Gorgon liquefied natural gas project, the largest resource development in Australia’s history, has started producing the super-cooled fuel.

The LNG project, whose partners include Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp., is due to ship its first cargo next week, San Ramon, California-based Chevron said in a statement. The development is located on the Barrow Island nature reserve off northwest Australia.

Gorgon is starting as weaker oil prices threaten revenue projections for LNG export developments, which typically have long-term sales contracts tied to the value of crude.

The Australian project will add to a wave of new supply, including the first deliveries from the U.S., as demand in Asia slows.

The project’s cost ballooned from an estimate of $37 billion when the companies decided to go ahead with the venture in 2009. The development is expected to reach full capacity at its three production facilities, known as trains, by the second half of 2017.

Trouble in paradise. Vivint Solar terminates $2.2 billion merger with SunEdison.

Rooftop solar panel installer Vivint Solar Inc said on Tuesday it had terminated an agreement under which it would have been taken over by solar energy company SunEdison Inc after SunEdison failed to consummate the deal.

SunEdison agreed to buy Vivint, which is controlled by Blackstone Group LP, on July 20 in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $2.2 billion.

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From The Iowa Primary

From The New York Times:

 In Iowa, Marco Rubio’s campaign knew how to spot its supporters in a sea of locals wearing Carhartt jackets and work boots: Look for the people in Vineyard Vines and Patagonia.

I would have been one of those wearing Carhartt.

Memo to self: have Sophia take a picture of my in my Carhartt from Home of Economy, Williston.  This coat will be worn by someone long after I'm gone. It feels indestructible.