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Saturday, February 27, 2016

A Day Late, A Dollar Short -- February 27, 2016

I don't think there's been an 6-year period in modern history in which geo-politics has changed so much at the detriment of the US.

The Drudge Report has this headline: massive Russia deployment in Armenia rattles Washington. The story is reported at The Washington Post with this headline: the Russian-Armenia alliance is threatening Turkey, a critical US ally.

This was reported at the blog a few days ago, and now The Drudge Report and The Washington Post and the Obama administration are now aware of this.
The February 21, 2016, front-page article “For Turkey, high stakes as troubles intensify” highlighted a critical development: The growing military alliance between Russia and Armenia is threatening Turkey, an indispensable U.S. ally and partner in the fight against the Islamic State.
The announcement that Russia is sending a new set of fighter jets and combat helicopters to an air base only 25 miles from the Turkish border is just the latest example of this alliance.
The two countries’ economic and military ties run deep, bolstered by economic and security agreements and two military bases — including one just outside the Armenian capital. Most significant, Armenia is the only country in the region that shares a border with Turkey and has Russian troops permanently stationed.
Although Armenia has welcomed thousands of Russian troops and advanced weaponry, these developments seemed to have escaped the notice of U.S. officials, who were settling in for the holidays while Russia and Armenia signed a sweeping air defense agreement two days before Christmas.
It’s time for Washington to assess who our real allies in the region are. A couple of points:
  • Turkey is hardly an indispensable US ally
  •  Turkey has been a fair-weather friend, at best, for the past two decades
  • Turkey was not particularly helpful for the second Gulf War in which Bush toppled Saddam Hussein
  • Turkey has been "swinging" to an Islamic Republic for the past decade and as such is hardly much of a US ally any more
  • if the US has any real ally in the area it's Kurdistan, and Turkey has been waging war on the Kurds for as long as I can remember (I was stationed in eastern Turkey, 1994 - 1996, and saw the Turkish war on the Kurds first-hand
At the end of the day, some folks in Washington may be "rattled" but:
  • Obama and his staff certainly aren't; this all occurred while the president was golfing the weekend of Scalia's funeral
  • the US military "puts up with Turkey" but no one in the Pentagon has seriously considered Turkey a true US ally for decades.
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A Note To The Granddaughters

The most difficult movie, without question, for me to watch is Doctor Zhivago. I don't recall when I last saw it, perhaps when I saw it for the first time, many years ago. I am watching it again. Last night I watched the first half; tonight I'm watching the second half.

Today, thinking back on the first half of the movie, I thought that the millennials supporting Bernie Sanders:
  • need to watch Doctor Zhivago (while reading the history of the Bolshevik Revolution at wikipedia);
  • need to read a really good biography of Ayn Rand; and,  
  • spend a year in Moscow, if they still don't "get it."
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Value-Pricing At Disneyland

From The Los Angeles Times:
Disneyland and Disney California Adventure have been charging $99 for a one-day ticket. Under the new policy, each day on the calendar will be designated a "value" day, a "regular" day or a "peak" day. The new price will be $95 for a value day, $105 for a regular day and $119 for a peak day.
Over a 12-month period, 30% of the days will be "value" days, 44% will be "regular" days and 26% will be "peak" days, Disney calculates.
Disney has long been rumored to be considering a pricing change. Walt Disney Resorts put out feelers to annual pass holders last year, asking their opinion of a three-tiered pricing system aimed at charging more during Christmas, spring break and summer.
The pressure for Disney to address its overcrowding problem has been growing.
In the three-month period that ended in December, the company reported a 10% increase in visitors at its domestic parks, reaching a new attendance record. During the holiday season, Disneyland has been forced to shut its gates for a time when the park reaches maximum capacity.
Although daily ticket prices will rise for most days under Disney's new policy, park officials note that they are adding attractions to help justify the extra costs.
Disneyland is now working to add a 14-acre "Star Wars" land and plans to add a new stage show based on the popular "Frozen" movie later this year. An opening date for "Star Wars" land hasn't been announced.
"Soaring Over California," a simulator attraction at Disney California Adventure Park, is being overhauled with a new film that features giant-screen images from around the world. The revamped version is opening this year.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

71 degrees in Grapevine, TX, northeast of Ft Worth; 70 degrees in Dallas; barely above freezing (37 degrees) in Boston; a foot of snow in the Chicago area overnight; another blizzard/snowstorm predicted for the Midwest next week. With short-sleeve weather here in north Texas, I'm trying to find the downside of global warming. How are the Maldives doing? The most recent article of note on the rising sea level around the Maldives was from a December, 2015, article in The Los Angele Times:
In 2004, a tsunami swallowed two-thirds of the country. As a result, over 20 islands were permanently erased from the map. The Earth is currently undergoing a climate change of historic proportion, with sea levels rising noticeably from the melting of glaciers and icebergs. If the trend continues, the Maldives will be completely submerged in 30 years.
One should start planning soon as the Maldives is disappearing under the ocean.
The islands were formed from underwater volcanic eruptions. The year-round warm weather, endless white beaches and inviting water make the Maldives an exotic and scenic paradise on Earth, and a perfect getaway for vacationers and honeymooners.
According to the International School Network, 80% of the tourists are for romantic getaways. Around 80 islands are major tourist attractions. A single resort operates each tourist island, and each island is not big. Therefore, providing a quiet and private spot sought after by the newlyweds.
Twenty islands permanently erased from the map. What map? I don't have a map of the Maldives.

Whatever.

We never get the denominator in these stories. Twenty islands permanently erased from the map. So how many islands are there in the Maldives? 1,190. One thousand one hundred ninety. Twenty lost in the 2004 tsunami which had nothing to do with global warming.

Whatever. There's always Hawaii.

I'll be riding my bike this afternoon in short-sleeve weather. 

Active Rigs In North Dakota -- February 27, 2016

Active rigs in North Dakota listed in order by operator:
  • BR: 4
  • CLR: 4
  • Enerplus: 1
  • EOG: 1 
  • Hess: 4
  • Halcon: 2
  • Liberty Resources: 1
  • Marathon: 1
  • Newfield: 1
  • Oasis: 2
  • Petro Hunt: 1
  • QEP: 3
  • Slawson: 1
  • SM Energy: 1
  • Statoil: 2
  • Whiting: 3
  • WPX: 1
  • XTO: 5

Rig
Operator
Well Name and Number
Current Location
County
H & P 516
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO
CCU ZEPHYR 34-34 TFH
SWSW 34-147N-94W
DUN
H & P 515
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO
MERTON 21-15TFH 3NH
NENW 15-149N-96W
MCK
PRECISION 578
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO
STAFFORD 13-34TFH
NWSW 34-151N-95W
MCK
H & P 492
BURLINGTON RES O&G CO
MERTON 21-15MBH
NENW 15-149N-96W
MCK
NABORS X27
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES
HENDRICKSON FEDERAL 3-36H2
SESW 36-153N-94W
MCK
H & P 535
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES
HEREFORD FEDERAL 2-20H1
SWNW 20-153N-94W
MCK
CYCLONE 38
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES
RATH FEDERAL 13-22H
SENW 23-153N-93W
MTL
H & P 640
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES
CORSICAN FEDERAL 3-15H
NENE 15-153N-93W
MTL
STONEHAM 18
ENERPLUS RES USA CORP
HUDSON 13-21H
NENW 13-149N-94W
MCK
H & P 524
EOG RESOURCES INC
AUSTIN 421-2821H
SESE 28-154N-90W
MTL
NABORS B09
HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II
HA-SANFORD- 152-96-1819H-6
NENW 18-152N-96W
MCK
NABORS b05
HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II
BB-BUDAHN- 150-95-0506H-7
SESE 5-150N-95W
MCK
NABORS B4
HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II
EN-URAN A- LE-154-93-2214H-2
SWSE 22-154N-93W
MTL
NABORS B06
HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENT II
CA-RUSSELL SMITH- 155-96-2425H-1
NWNE 24-155N-96W
WIL
PATTERSON 268
HRC OPERATING, LLC
FORT BERTHOLD 148-95-23C-14-8H
NENW 26-148N-95W
DUN
PATTERSON 806
HRC OPERATING, LLC
FORT BERTHOLD 152-93-7C-6-13H
SESW 7-152N-93W
MCK
PATTERSON 286
LIBERTY RES MNGMT CO
ANDERSON 156-97-4-9-2MBH
SWSW 36-157N-97W
WIL
H & P 438
MARATHON OIL CO
CHARMAINE USA 14-35TFH
NWSE 34-152N-94W
MCK
PATTERSON 344
NEWFIELD PROD CO
JORGENSON FEDERAL 148-96-10-15-3H
NENW 10-148N-96W
DUN
PATTERSON 330
OASIS PETRO NO AMER
ROLFSON N 5198 14-17 11BX
NENE 17-151N-98W
MCK
NABORS B22
OASIS PETRO NO AMER
ROLFSON S 5198 12-29 7B
NENW 29-151N-98W
MCK
TRUE 36
PETRO HUNT LLC
DOLEZAL 146-97-31D-30-3H
LOT1 6-145N-97W
DUN
UNIT 404
QEP ENERGY CO
FOREMAN 4-2-1BHR
SWSW 2-150N-95W
MCK
UNIT 329
QEP ENERGY CO
KDM 4-7-6T2HD
SWSW 7-149N-95W
MCK
UNIT 121
QEP ENERGY CO
KDM 1-7-6T2HD
SWSE 7-149N-95W
MCK
UNIT 123
SLAWSON EXPLORATION
RIVER RAT FEDERAL 5-23-14TFH
NWNE 26-152N-93W
MTL
NABORS 687
SM ENERGY CO
M HAUGEN 14B-24HN
SESW 24-160N-100W
DIV
NABORS B24
STATOIL OIL & GAS
SAX 25-36F #7H
SESW 36-153N-98W
MCK
CRAIG P1
STATOIL OIL & GAS
SAMSON 29-32 #6H
SESW 20-153N-97W
MCK
PIONEER 75
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP
ROLLA FEDERAL 31-3-4TFH
LOT7 3-152N-97W
MCK
PATTERSON 808
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP
ROLLA FEDERAL 21-3-1H
LOT6 3-152N-97W
MCK
PATTERSON 280
WHITING OIL AND GAS CORP
CARSCALLEN 31-14-2H
NENW 14-154N-98W
WIL
NABORS B08
WPX ENERGY WILLISTON LLC
NORTH SEGMENT 6-5-4 HA
NWNW 6-150N-91W
MCL
NABORS B10
XTO ENERGY INC
TAT STATE FEDERAL 14X-36G
SWSW 36-148N-96W
DUN
NABORS B19
XTO ENERGY INC
FBIR BLACKMEDICINE 24X-21AXD
SESW 21-149N-91W
DUN
EXTREME 16
XTO ENERGY INC
JOHNSON 31X-6D
LOT2 6-149N-97W
MCK
NABORS x10
XTO ENERGY INC
LUND 41X-17C
NENE 17-150N-97W
MCK
NABORS 742
XTO ENERGY INC
JMB 14X-15B
SWSW 15-155N-95W
WIL