Real GDP Ranking: North Dakota Ranks #1 In 2014; The Other Surprise Is #3

Memo for Jane Nielson and Gregor McDonald: click on this link.

1. After more than doubling from 2007 to 2010, annual oil production in the Peace Garden State more than doubled again in the two-year period from 2010 to 2012 (from 113 million to 243 million barrels), and the state was producing more than 10% of all US crude oil by 2012. North Dakota was producing so much shale oil in the Bakken, that it surpassed both Alaska and California to become the nation’s second-largest oil-producing state in 2012, behind only Texas. Also by 2012, the energy-driven stimulus to the state’s economy moved North Dakota to the No. 2 spot in the country for per-capita real GDP at $64,150 behind only Alaska at $70,437, and 33% above the national average of $48,264.
2. In 2013, North Dakota’s real GDP per capita fell by 2%, and its ranking fell to No. 4 among US states for real GDP per capita at $62,750. But last year, North Dakota led the country with the largest increase in real state GDP (6.3%), and the state’s real GDP per capita rebounded to $65,225 setting a new state record, and moved the Peace Garden State back up to the No. 2 ranking among the country’s states for per-capita output, just behind No.1 Alaska at $66,160.

In all fairness, I think Gregor McDonald is looking at the Bakken from a peak oil perspective, and we both probably agree that we are being set up for $200 oil. On the other hand, Jane is a) incredibly deficient when it comes to her understanding of North Dakota and the Bakken; and, b) she is a good example of someone with significant blind spots as I've pointed out before. 

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Oil Still Tops ND Economy

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Oil remained king in North Dakota as the largest economic sector and the engine that powered the state’s impressive growth last year despite a drop in petroleum prices.

The mining sector, dominated by oil and gas extraction, contributed $9 billion toward the state’s $55 billion economy last year, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ gauge of the state’s gross domestic product.

North Dakota’s economy grew 8 percent from 2013 to 2014 — 6.3 percent when adjusted for inflation — topping the state growth rate for the sixth year in a row. That was a bit cooler than the 9.7 percent growth rate for 2013.

Data at Bureau of Economic Analysis.  

Screenshot (the table was too large to capture in one screenshot, but the important part of the table was captured):

 

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North Dakota, #1; Texas, #2; Wyoming, #4 -- Which State Was #3 For GDP Growth In 2014?

This is quite remarkable. I grew up thinking this was a poor Appalachian coal state. But it was ranked #3 behind North Dakota and Texas in GDP growth in 2014. Some data points:

• the net corporate income tax rate is 8.5%, scheduled for reduction to 6.5% by 2014, while business costs are 13% below the national average
• the state is a global chemical hub
• the state has one of the nation's highest concentrations of biotech industries
• a national energy hub, leading the nation in net interstate electricity exports and underground coal mine production
• a growing renewable energy portfolio
• the largest coal producer east of the Mississippi River
• home to several hydroelectric facilities
• major aerospace employers are located in the state

The state? West Virginia.

The state is a global hub for chemicals, a national hub for biotech industries and a leader in energy, while having a diverse economy in aerospace, automotive, healthcare and education, metals and steels, media and telecommunications, manufacturing, hospitality, biometrics, forestry, and tourism.

West Virginia's economy accelerated in 2014 with a growth rate of 5.1%, ranking third among the fastest growing states in the United States alongside Wyoming and just behind North Dakota and Texas.

Reason #4,534 Why I Love To Blog -- June 13, 2015

I think one of the most interesting stories to follow for the next two years will be OPEC oil production. Well, duh.

I keep going back to the graph at this post. I keep repeating the same data points, and adding some:

• Saudi embarked on a $35 billion, 5-year program back in 2012 to sustain oil production
• Saudi's oil production has hardly moved since 2012
• Saudi's budget is based on $100 oil
• domestic consumption of oil and natural gas is increasing in Saudi Arabia
• apparently the Saudi quest to find natural gas in Rub al Khali failed; one of many links; a better link;
• Saudi Arabia is embarking on a huge refinery program (see below)
• the water situation in the Mideast is getting more and more challenging, and the amount of energy needed for desalination is beyond one's imagination (see below)
• Saudi has a huge new terrorist organization to worry about
• Saudi is engaged in a fairly expensive shooting war
• President Obama has made it very clear that Saudi is on their own when it comes to security
• the Saudi oil minister is making some bizarre statements about the end of fossil fuel (bizarre or disingenuous)

Saudi Arabia's huge refining program, The Wall Street Journal reported this earlier this year (2015):

Saudi Arabia plans to become the world’s second-largest exporter of refined oil products in 2017 as part of its drive to diversify its economy and increase its share of the global crude and petroleum products markets, the kingdom’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Wednesday.

The kingdom’s two new refineries will add 800,000 barrels a day in refining capacity this year. A planned 400,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Jazan will bring Saudi Arabia’s refining capacity to more than 3 million barrels a day.

“That will make the kingdom one of the five largest countries in the world in terms of refined crude capacity and the second largest exporter of refined products after the U.S.,” Mr. al-Naimi said.

And even more:

Last year, Saudi Aramco started output at one of the largest oil refineries built in recent years—a 400,000-barrel-a-day project in a joint venture with Total SA. Another 400,000 barrels a day plant in Yanbu, a joint venture with China’s Sinopec called Yasref, started trial runs in September and exported its first shipment in January.

Saudi Aramco has previously said it plans to increase its refining capacity to 8 million barrels a day in the next decade through expansion both at home and abroad.

To some extent, this is a "wash." Countries currently importing Saudi crude oil may switch to importing Saudi petroleum products instead.

Saudi Arabia's domestic energy consumption and desalination: several links --

• desalination, Mideast, 2013, Stanford University study
• Saudi uses 1.5 million bopd for its 30+ desalination plants (this does not provide water for agriculture; agricultural water comes from non-renewable resources)
• desalination, Saudi Arabia, an overview

If Saudi Arabia's oil reserves were inexhaustible, their desalination program would not be an issue. But apparently, Saudi Arabia has concerns.

The kingdom is now embarking on a huge solar-powered desalination project. It will be the world's first large scale solar powered desalination plant.

Just a few weeks ago, on May 22, 2015, The Guardian had a big story on Saudi Arabia turning to solar energy for its desalination program, and then even made the crazy assertion that someday Saudi's solar energy industry would "export" electricity.

This is where the minister of energy sounded a bit bizarre:

“In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we’re not going to need fossil fuels,” said Naimi at a business and climate conference in Paris on Thursday.

“I don’t know when - 2040, 2050 or thereafter. So we have embarked on a program to develop solar energy,” he said in comments reported by the Guardian, Bloomberg, and the Financial Times. “Hopefully, one of these days, instead of exporting fossil fuels, we will be exporting gigawatts of electric power.”

Naimi also said he did not think that continuing low crude oil prices would make solar power uneconomic: “I believe solar will be even more economic than fossil fuels.”

Be that as it may; it is what it is. It's bizarre but it may be telling.

However, what caught my eye was this, buried deep in the article, why I wrote that this is reason #4,534 why I love to blog:

Saudi Arabia had already said in 2012 it aimed to be powered by 100% renewable energy and later that year announced a $109 billion solar plan. In January, that plan was delayed by eight years. 

Their solar program wasn't just delayed a year or two or three or four, it was delayed eight years. Anyone who has spent any time living and/or working in the Mideast knows that a) it took a lot for Saudi to admit this 8-year delay ("losing face"); and, b) "eight years" was simply a figure pulled out of thin air. It's as likely that it will be an 18-year delay.

Ever since I began following the Bakken, it's been my understanding that Saudi Arabia's budget is based on $100 oil. Most of that budget, based on conjecture and what little I know, was before these huge big projects and challenges came along.

These are big ticket items that will not do well on $50 Saudi oil:

• fighting the war in Yemen
• fighting ISIS
• preparing to fight Iran
• if Saudi decides to go nuclear (and I think they will) that's another huge financial outlay;
• 1.5 million bopd ($100 million/day on the open market worth of oil) to run its desalination programs; that's about $40 billion /year just for potable water (not agricultural water)
• $35 billion, 5-year program to sustain current oil production; it's not so much the dollar cost; it's the fact it takes so much of their only resource (oil) to run the plants
• a $109 billion solar plan (now delayed); there's only one reason to delay, I would imagine: cash flow
• aggressive, expansive refining program
• a Bentley for each Saudi pilot striking Yemen: 100 Bentleys

That was a long note for just a single point, but it provides a starting point for the archives with regard to big-ticket items that Saudi Arabia needs to pay for and why their crude oil production needs to increase to meet their new refinery requirements. One almost gets the feeling that if Saudi increases their production from 10.3 million bopd to 11.3 million bopd they are simply running faster to stay in the same place.

By the way, solar is not all it's cracked up to be (a future post on this will be forthcoming; I can hardly wait).

EOG SOP For Shutting In Neighboring Wells When Fracking New Wells -- June 13, 2015

EOG has a long note on a sundry form regarding its "downspacing and infill drilling program" in the file report for this well, explaining an SOP for shutting in neighboring wells when fracking new wells:

• 16532, 1,285, EOG, N&D 1-05H, Parshall, t7/07; cum 457K 4/15;

The sundry form was dated August 14, 2014.

The NDIC GIS map server appears to be off-line at the moment. When it is back up, if I remember, I will post a screenshot of the activity around this particular well.

Random Update Of MRO's Gertrude Tuhy Well -- June 13, 2015

I noted this well on the MRO-likely-to-be-refracked wells to have been taking off-line in early January, 2014; it is still listed as "IA" but it appears to be back on-line. No sundry form in the files to suggest if it has been refracked; still being followed:

• 19375, IA/308, MRO, Gertrude Tuhy 34-24H, Chimney Butte, Bakken, 14 stages; 2 million lbs; t3/11; cum 38K 4/15; last production of any note 1/14; update: six days of production in April, 2015;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	6	29	27	300	382	315	43
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	130	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	1	130	0	0	14	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	3	61	233	130	90	50	21
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	963	931	1348	1016	700	27
BAKKEN	12-2013	27	690	707	1068	654	427	88
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	777	699	1306	706	440	86
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	820	934	1263	781	546	49
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	782	666	1198	815	625	14
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	852	926	1060	842	626	51
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	859	687	1292	887	671	33
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	869	934	1296	906	698	28
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	937	893	1405	950	711	54
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	957	1136	1408	948	725	43
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	1100	1096	1624	1082	852	48
BAKKEN	2-2013	23	852	871	1346	771	540	101
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	926	919	1336	918	691	41
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	1086	902	1389	979	758	35
BAKKEN	11-2012	30	877	889	1115	828	615	33
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	867	895	1131	845	624	35
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	902	877	1114	928	701	47
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	975	1124	1144	864	566	112
BAKKEN	7-2012	30	955	887	1077	948	722	52
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	1142	1124	1217	1180	938	62
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	1145	1342	1212	1025	786	53
BAKKEN	4-2012	26	1392	1347	1803	1170	666	349
BAKKEN	3-2012	26	857	672	303	603	484	92
BAKKEN	2-2012	20	434	453	10	237	187	42
BAKKEN	1-2012	19	1199	1343	903	1038	567	375
BAKKEN	12-2011	30	783	674	660	305	131	93
BAKKEN	11-2011	22	889	898	702	583	451	105
BAKKEN	10-2011	19	837	942	560	537	299	190
BAKKEN	9-2011	19	932	1120	299	979	624	295
BAKKEN	8-2011	17	1605	1109	584	1233	1052	89
BAKKEN	7-2011	12	557	661	492	417	273	83
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	1524	1770	1060	1393	1054	162
BAKKEN	5-2011	28	2116	2172	1945	1883	1653	68
BAKKEN	4-2011	29	2796	2703	2186	2352	2149	29
BAKKEN	3-2011	13	2147	1796	998	1708	1603	30

Random Note On Two Whiting Smith Federal Wells -- June 13, 205

I track Whiting's Smith Federal wells here, but this update might interest a reader or two. These two wells are still confidential but look at the production profiles to date, especially #28056:

• 28055, 1,754, Whiting, Smith Federal 41-13PH, Park, s10/10; t5/15; cum 15K 1/16;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	9517	9550	1527	13762	13700	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	10496	10507	1743	14520	14459	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	11730	11687	3268	17290	17230	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	14283	14303	4386	22367	22011	294
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	16372	16418	4127	24578	24519	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	27	17822	18138	3767	24543	24492	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	24962	24642	5999	30661	30332	267
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	24521	24906	8146	28093	27617	416
BAKKEN	5-2015	17	6470	6083	4051	7835	6599	1210
BAKKEN	4-2015	13	4838	4835	2016	5838	5792	26
BAKKEN	3-2015	26	14995	14868	9461	17672	15273	2348

• 28056, conf, Whiting, Smith Federal 44-12PH, Park, s10/14; producing, 17K first month, 3/15:
  
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	1-2016	31	12401	12404	2155	26402	26340	0
  BAKKEN	12-2015	31	14274	14359	2398	28991	28930	0
  BAKKEN	11-2015	30	16644	16542	2734	28921	28861	0
  BAKKEN	10-2015	31	19980	20037	3366	33890	33393	436
  BAKKEN	9-2015	27	19271	19519	3192	28855	28803	0
  BAKKEN	8-2015	31	25129	25044	3311	34333	34271	0
  BAKKEN	7-2015	31	30284	30576	3824	39963	39752	149
  BAKKEN	6-2015	30	25759	25788	2778	30011	29208	743
  BAKKEN	5-2015	31	22835	22969	2640	24426	22979	1387
  BAKKEN	4-2015	29	29623	29659	9385	31648	27459	4133
  BAKKEN	3-2015	24	17567	16796	13491	17586	13788	3754

Random Update On A Hess Kvam Well -- June 13, 2015

Updates

November 16, 2015: the well is back on line --

• 17141, 520, Hess, BL-Kvam-156-95-1819H-1, Beaver Lodge, t7/08; cum 248K 9/15; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	1483	1484	428	1931	1931	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	1585	1560	545	131	131	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	1737	1747	401	153	153	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	1954	1958	364	203	203	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	19	2004	1949	350	857	857	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Original Post

 

A reader asked whether there were any indications of pad drilling coming to this well in the near future:

• 17141, IA/520, Hess, BL-Kvam-156-95-1819H-1, Beaver Lodge, t7/08; cum 239K 4/15;

Interestingly enough, this well went off line in March, 2015:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	26	0	34	23	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	23	1057	1073	2072	118	118	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	29	1561	1560	161	181	181	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	29	1780	1784	271	177	177	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	1748	1744	329	365	365	0

There appear to be no operational reasons (no new wells in the area being drilled or fracked) for this well to have been taken off-line.

Whatever Happened To All Those Stories About The US Running Out Of Crude Oil Storage? -- June 13, 2015

Earlier this year there were many, many stories that the US would run out of crude oil storage by May, 2015. There were suggestions it could happen as soon as April, 2015. Then in April, "they" found new storage capacity. LOL.

Here it is June, and I haven't seen any recent articles on shortages in US crude oil storage -- amazing how fast free market capitalism can respond to these things.

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 Fracking

Tea Leaves Are Swirling

Rigzone is reporting:

On a more promising note, Flemming said some of HII’s smaller oilfield customers have indicated that they would resume fracking schedules as soon as the end of July or August of 2015.

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NOAA Fakes Images

Rigzone also noted that story posted earlier about NOAA fudging satellite images showing flaring in North Dakota.

Using new processing methods and subpixel techniques, researchers at the University of North Dakota (UND) shined new light on whether photos portraying the North Dakota night sky as bright as major U.S. cities were accurate.

UND researchers decided to investigate how satellite photos taken of the North Dakota sky – which shows lights as bright as major U.S. East Coast cities – were processed after seeing inadequate explanations given for how the images were derived. 

It's a long article; it will be archived.

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Problems At Statoil

More Off-Shore Production Coming Off-Line

This has been talked about before; problems for Statoil. Now this article from Rigzone:

Around 2,200 oil and gas sector jobs could be lost in Norway by 2016 at Statoil and Aker Solutions. Statoil could potentially make 2,000 job cuts by the end of 2016.

Discussions between Statoil’s management and representatives from unions were held on Thursday and it is believed that a decision will be finalized in the near future. The cuts would form part of Statoil’s technical efficiency program announced in February, which aimed to reduce the company’s annual cost by $1.7 billion.

The news follows Aker Solutions’ announcement late Thursday that between 150 and 200 positions could be affected at the oilfield services company’s subsea services facility in Ågotnes, Norway, as it adjusts the plant’s workforce capacity due to a decline in activity in the Norwegian market.

I could be wrong, but it's my feeling that off-short projects don't stop and start "on a dime." I still see risk in "someone" setting us up for $200 oil.

By the way, when I say "$200 oil," I don't mean literally $200 oil. Rather, I am suggesting that there is a risk that the price of oil will surge unexpectedly in 2017 (and possibly as early as 2016) with pundits/talking heads suggesting we could see $200 oil. Whatever the price of oil is in 2017, I don't think Saudi Arabia plans on giving away their oil for $50 / bbl "forever."

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Meandering Maureen

Dowd in The New York Times:

President Obama has vowed to degrade, destroy and defeat ISIS, but it seems more like delay, so it won’t look as though he lost Iraq on his watch. He’s putting a bandage on the virulent gash, sending American advisers to work with Iraqi troops and tribesmen in “lily pad” bases near the front lines.

It appears to be a sad, symbolic move by a country and president fed up with endless war and at wit’s end about how to combat the most murderous terrorists on the face of the earth. If we drowned in quicksand going full-bore for a dozen years beside Iraqi soldiers who did not want to fight, what good will 450 more American trainers do?

A lame duck sending sitting ducks to lily pads is not a pretty sight.

I wish I had said that.  This Maureen Down piece is very meandering, but it hits every hot button.

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The Los Angeles Times

Side-by-Side

If you can't access the link, google key phrase: California's commercial drone industry is taking off.  

Side-by-side with: Boeing auctions off equipment as it closes C-17 plant in Long Beach.

Once there were so many workers building military cargo jets at Boeing's sprawling plant in Long Beach that employees put flags on their cars to find them in the vast parking lot.

Now the parking lot is nearly empty. There are no "going out of business" signs posted out front, but this month the company is holding its first auction of the plant's mammoth equipment.

The 25-acre factory that assembled 279 of the workhorse C-17 air haulers is being disassembled.

Workers are putting the final touches on the last eight planes, but already four of the five manufacturing bays sit nearly silent.

By the way, the graph above is similar to the same graph showing the number of folks attending Hillary Clinton events.

The Red Queen Is Still On The Treadmill; She Has Not Fallen Off; 1,582 Wells In North Dakota Off-Line -- June 13, 2015

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The April data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/mpr/2015_04.pdf. 

I will be watching for the Director's Cut on Monday, but the important production and flaring information has been released.

The Bismarck Tribune is reporting data from April, 2015, for the Bakken:

• March, 2015, crude oil production: 1,190,502 bopd
• April, 2015, crude oil produciton: 1,168,636 bopd

The April production will be revised up (slightly) in the final data which will be released a month from now. The "preliminary" data and the "final" data are generally quite close.

Delta:

• 1,190-502 - 1,168,636 = 21,866 bopd
• 21,866 / 1,168,636 = 1.87% decrease month-over-month

Let the comments begin. Yours, not mine. Some more data first.

What the article failed to mention was the number of active rigs:

• April 30, 2014: 187
• March 31, 2015: 99
• April 30, 2015: 86

Let the comments begin. Yours, not mine. Some more data first.

Natural gas flaring

• as a percentage, declined statewide in April, to 18%
• previous two months (February, March): 19%
• as a percentage, 18% is the lowest since the summer of 2010
• July, 2010: 321,042 bopd (all-time record at that time)
• July, 2010, rig count: 135
• Unless I missed it, the percent of flaring was not even mentioned in the Director's Cut regarding the July, 2010, data.  
• Comment: look at that -- flaring today, in 2015, as a percentage, is less than that in 2010; in 2010, crude oil production was barely 300,000 bopd; today, with choking back, crude oil production in North Dakota is well over 1 million bopd

The Director also noted that as of yesterday, the active drilling rig count was 76, the lowest count since 2009.  

Producing wells:

• March, 2015: 12,443
• April, 2015: 12,537

Wells capable of producing in April, 2015: 14,119

• 1,582 wells capable of producing were off-line 
• this number is probably immaterial; a look at three other months suggests this is a typical percentage 

Comments:

• in 2012, Saudi Arabia announced a $35-billion 5-year plan to increase number of active rigs to sustain production; most recent data available shows the Saudis have minimally increased crude oil production since 2012
• in 2010, the active rig count in North Dakota was 135, and daily production was 300,000 bopd in North Dakota
• in 2015, the active rig count in North Dakota was 76 (almost half that of 2010), and daily production was significantly above 1 million bopd
• the 1.87% decrease month-over-month is trivial; this is within the normal variation once one gets to "manufacturing phase" (of course, with maximum production, the Bakken could easily be in the 2 million bopd); we have seen significantly greater decreases in month-over-month production (as much as 5%) during the winter
• while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were cutting back on production from new wells and old wells due to the slump in oil prices
• production in the Bakken is being cut back by several methods: a) fewer days on-line; b) choking back when wells are on-line; c) delaying fracking (SI/NC)
• while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were cutting back on production from new wells and old wells to meet new flaring rules
• while Saudi Arabia was maximizing production from each new and each older well, the Bakken operators were impacted by constrained takeaway capacity, crude oil storage issues, "wrong" type of refineries along the Gulf Coast, new conditioning rules, weather, roads, an anti-oil atmosphere at the Federal level, significant delays in new pipelines (Keystone XL, Sandpiper)

The Saudi story is even more interesting: most recent data available shows the Saudis have minimally increased crude oil production since 2012; during this same period, Saudi Arabia announced new refineries in their own country to refine their own oil to sell refined products to Europe (this is a new venture for Saudi Arabia and necessitates increased production for their own refineries. In addition, the amount of domestic requirements for Saudi Arabia have increased.

From Seeking Alpha:

• North Dakota oil production fell 1.8%, or nearly 22K bbl/day, in April to ~1.17M bbl/day after recording a surprising jump in March, as weak crude prices led producers to ease production.
• The number of drilling rigs operating in North Dakota stands at 76, the lowest since December 2009, according to the latest monthly report from the state's Department of Mineral Resources.
• The agency director has said he expects the state’s oil production to remain at 1.1M-1.2M bbl/day until oil prices recover.
• April natural gas production was up slightly at 1.54B cf/day from 1.51B cf/day in March.
• Unimpressed commentator Gregor McDonald tweets: "Sorry America, but 9,525 wells in the North Dakota Bakken producing on average 116 bbl/day is more cartoon than triumph."

I don't know if this is the same Gregor McDonald, but if it is, it sounds like he, too, missed the Bakken, has his own spin, and has a very different world view than I do. I find it somewhat incredible that of "all the stuff out there," Seeking Alpha chose to post that meaningless tweet. But it is what it is. The wells pay for themselves in 6 months in the best Bakken; two years in the worst Bakken when prices are optimal; and the Bakken will produce at a minimum 35 billion bbls of oil through 2100; compared with 7 billion bbls from the North Slope.

So, what is the most interesting data point that was not in The Bismarck Tribune article? Answer: I will let you think about it. There is a hint above. I will post the answer later. Maybe Sunday.

Update: Sunday, June 14, 2015 -- well, this is pretty cool. I posted the answer to the question back on June 8, 2015. 

Update On White Butte Oil (Slawson) Stacked Dual Laterals In The Antelope Oil Field, Southwest Of New Town -- June 13, 2015

Note: in a long post like this, with data brought from earlier posts, there is a high degree of risk for factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Updates

November 4, 2017: Panzer 1-20MLH, #21385, is back on line (according to FracFocus, this well was fracked in 3/15; and 9/16, but no later data for a re-frack):

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/15; cum 171K 2/20;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2017	19	3291	3271	1956	4829	0	4378
SANISH	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2017	2	3	0	0	19	0	4
SANISH	5-2017	4	484	475	448	714	0	644
SANISH	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2017	18	1182	1370	1030	1645	0	1555
SANISH	1-2017	14	1310	1130	943	1887	0	1817

Reminder to self: in addition to the three Panzer wells, White Butte has two Meerkat wells. 

April 15, 2017: #21387, Panzer 4-20MLH; another frack, stimulated 9/25/16 -- Three Forks; 22 stages; 2.6 million lbs; the sundry form dated 12/06/16 says that "this is a dual lateral. Currently, only the second lateral (SW Three Forks lateral) has been fractured and is producing. A revised completion report will be submitted once the second lateral is fractured."

• 21387, 2,502, White Butte Oil Operations, Panzer 4-20MLH, Antelope, Sanish, t4/15; cum 187K 2/20;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2017	30	8778	8748	5977	12466	0	11372
SANISH	8-2017	21	4423	4014	4376	6315	0	5736
SANISH	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2017	23	2581	2788	4183	3728	0	3331
SANISH	5-2017	11	2210	1861	2148	3133	0	2843
SANISH	4-2017	7	1432	2034	713	2022	0	1987
SANISH	3-2017	30	7135	7376	4085	10020	0	9870
SANISH	2-2017	28	11883	11423	7342	16725	0	16585
SANISH	1-2017	16	6208	6290	4826	8747	0	8667
SANISH	12-2016	20	5118	5161	4317	7118	0	7018
SANISH	11-2016	29	8277	8152	8067	11677	0	11532
SANISH	10-2016	21	6345	6268	6719	9104	0	8999
SANISH	9-2016	1	126	0	0	184	0	179
SANISH	8-2016	1	36	0	0	69	0	64
SANISH	7-2016	1	3	0	0	155	0	155
SANISH	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2015	4	1194	1434	728	1719	0	1699
SANISH	6-2015	30	16220	16310	7482	23503	0	23353
SANISH	5-2015	19	9676	9152	4867	13963	0	13868
SANISH	4-2015	10	3037	2918	708	4317	0	4267

April 15, 2017: #21386, Panzer 2-20MLH; the story is identical to #21387. Production profile for past 12 months only:

• 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope, Sanish, t4/15; cum 280K 2/20;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2017	28	12530	12750	6311	18255	0	18115
SANISH	1-2017	16	6810	6150	4116	9979	0	9899
SANISH	12-2016	14	4827	5198	3484	6985	0	6915
SANISH	11-2016	27	7705	7377	6994	11320	0	11185
SANISH	10-2016	17	4600	4402	3387	6855	0	6770
SANISH	9-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2016	0	0	629	0	1	0	1
SANISH	6-2016	15	3123	2634	1459	4704	0	4629
SANISH	5-2016	19	3647	3554	1325	5473	0	5378
SANISH	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

April 15, 2017: #21385, Panzer 1-20MLH; the story is identical but the production not particularly notable; Production profile for past 12 months only:

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope, Sanish, t4/15; cum 172K 2/20;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2017	19	3291	3271	1956	4829	0	4378
SANISH	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	6-2017	2	3	0	0	19	0	4
SANISH	5-2017	4	484	475	448	714	0	644
SANISH	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2017	18	1182	1370	1030	1645	0	1555
SANISH	1-2017	14	1310	1130	943	1887	0	1817
SANISH	12-2016	4	288	234	741	425	0	405
SANISH	11-2016	18	7095	8035	4543	10709	0	10619
SANISH	10-2016	21	8685	8311	9541	12824	0	12719
SANISH	9-2016	1	439	0	0	645	0	640
SANISH	8-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	7-2016	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
SANISH	6-2016	7	696	414	208	1051	0	1016
SANISH	5-2016	22	5816	5759	1179	8628	0	8518
SANISH	4-2016	18	3986	4590	981	5877	0	5787
SANISH	3-2016	31	6810	6225	1536	9873	0	9718

***********************************************

February 4, 2016: in the note below, I noted that the Panzer wells/permits were the only three permits for White Butte; today I noted that White Butte has five permits. To the three Panzer wells noted below, add these two:

• 18123, 1,112, White Butte, Meerkat 1-12H, Big Bend, t8/09; cum 313K 2/20;
• 18124, 670, White Butte, Meerkat 1-7H, Big Bend, t8/09; cum 256K 2/20;
• according to a sundry form these two wells were transferred to White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, from Slawson Exploration, letter dated December 2, 2015.
• #18123 a simple single lateral
• however, #18124, December 24, 2013: a request to re-enter the original well and drill a second lateral; API: 33-061-01038; FrackFocus shows a single frack, 4/17-18/2014 (this is most likely the frack of the second lateral)

February 4, 2016: frack data -- the frack data is now available for all six horizontal laterals from the  three Panzer wells.

21385
first lateral: 3/11/15 -- 20 stages; 2.5 million lbs; middle Bakken
second lateral: 9/26/16 -- 20 stages, 2.9 million lbs; Three Forks 

21386
first lateral: 3/06/15 -- 32 stages; 2 million lbs, middle Bakken
second lateral: 9/22/16 --20 stages; 2.7 million lbs; Three Forks

21387
first lateral: 3/09/15 -- 20 stages; 2.8 million lbs; Three Forks B1 (no typo)
second lateral: 9/26/16 -- 22 stages, 2.6 million lbs; Three Forks (no typo)

This screen shot says this is diagram for #21385, but it was with the file report for #21387. This schematic is in both the #21385 and the #21387 file report:

October 6, 2015: These are still the only three White Butte permits/wells (October 6, 2015):

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 128K 9/17;
• 21386, 1,905, White Butte, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 153K 9/17;
• 21387, 2,502, White Butte, Panzer 4-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 95K 9/17; off line almost all of 7/15; no production 8/15; 

There is no explanation in the file report why #21387 is off-line; there are no wells in the area that are being fracked or drilled.


September 20, 2015:

• 21387, 2,502, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 4-20MLH, t4/14; cum 95K 9/17;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2015	4	1194	1434	728	1719	0	1699
SANISH	6-2015	30	16220	16310	7482	23503	0	23353
SANISH	5-2015	19	9676	9152	4867	13963	0	13868
SANISH	4-2015	10	3037	2918	708	4317	0	4267

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC/Slawson, Panzer 1-20MLH, t4/15; cum 35K 7/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2015	23	10165	10148	2945	15360	0	15245
SANISH	6-2015	30	20621	20420	7538	29895	0	29745
SANISH	5-2015	19	11443	11202	4953	17005	0	16910
SANISH	4-2015	9	3051	2749	702	4467	0	4422

• 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope oil field, Sanish Pool, 320 acre-spacing, t4/15; cum 63K 7/15; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2015	13	6656	7087	2279	9933	0	9868
SANISH	6-2015	30	20321	20246	7767	30465	0	30315
SANISH	5-2015	29	19494	19744	8651	29116	0	28971
SANISH	4-2015	21	16412	15672	7287	24400	0	24295

Original Post

This well has posted its IP.

• 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope oil field, Sanish Pool, 320 acre-spacing, t4/15; cum 16K 4/15;

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	4-2015	21	16412	15672	7287	24400	0	24295

Instead of re-writing everything, I'm simply going to cut and paste earlier postings regarding this well.


First, May 5, 2015:

The White Butte Oil Panzer wells were originally Slawson permits, 320-acre spacing units; approved back in late August, 2011; in early 2014, Slawson requested that the permit be amended to allow for an additional lateral and to rename #21385, Panzer 1-20MLH. On October 10, 2013, the the three Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte from Slawson.

The narrative for the 1-20MLH is not yet available (unless I missed it).

The 2-20MLH is described as a single section dual-lateral consisting of two 4,504' - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south. The first lateral accessing the second bench of the Three Forks was completed on November 11, 2014; while the second lateral that penetrated the middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014. 

The second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole. 

While drilling the dual-lateral well, the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals.

Panzer 4-20MLH is a single-section, dual-lateral accessing the first bench of the Three Forks; it appears the second lateral was also in the first bench of the Three Forks. 

I believe these are the only three White Butte Oil Operations wells in North Dakota at this time.  

White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, is a North Dakota Foreign Limited-Liability Company which filed on June 4, 2014. The Registered Agent for this company is located in Bismarck, ND; the company's principal address is in Wichita, KS. Its address is 727 N Waco Ave Ste 400, Wichita, KS.

Slawson Exploration has an address at 727 N. Waco Ste 400, Wichita, KS 67203. 

Second, from April 1, 2015:

.... the well is located on a 3-well pad approximately 12 miles southwest of New Town, North Dakota...

... consisting of two 4,504 - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south; the first later accessing the TF 2 was completed November 11, 2014; the second lateral penetrated the Middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014; the second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the Middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole; the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals; very little background gas (20 - 50 units) were noted in the first half of the first lateral; lack of permeability and porosity suggested that a strong response to hydraulic fracturing will be needed to unlock the TF 2. Despite the low levels of drilling gas, other wells from the area drawing from the Sanish pool have performed admirably. The ideal target zone (Middle Bakken) was defined as a 20-foot interval; background gas much higher at 1,000 to 1,500 units; even averaging 2,500 units during connections. Summary: the Panzer 2-20MLH was the first of 3 wellheads with 6 total lateral objectives to be compled on the panzer pad, with the cmoplete dual-lateral well reaching completion onf November 27, 2014. The TF2 appears to be less promising than the middle Bakken in this area. The spacing unit is 320 acres; this was originally a Slawson permit; this permit has been renewed at least three times; original Slawson permit was dated 9/1/11.

Completion data:

• Lateral 1: TD = 15,486; OH interval from 10,948 feet (top) to 15,409 feet (bottom); KOP, 10,196 feet
• Lateral 2: TD = 15,265, OH interval from 10,635 feet (top) to 15,183 feet (bottom); KOP, 10,072 feet

Lateral 2: 32 stages; 2 million lbs sand, middle Bakken lateral, 3/6/15;

Schemiatic:

A few things to note:

• the frack data for lateral 1, the Three Forks 2nd bench was not in the file as of June 13, 2015
• the production profile says this comes from the Sanish Pool, though the second lateral is definitely the Middle Bakken; I associate "Sanish" with Three Forks
• the production profile shows only one formation, the "Sanish"; it will be interesting to see if production from this well is broken out by each lateral, or if combined as if "one" well

An older post regarding this 3-well pad, December 14, 2015:

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/15; cum 171K 12/19; off line 1/20;
• 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/15; cum 277K 10/19; off line 10/19
• 21387, 2,502 White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 4-20MLH, original permit for a Three Forks well but name change suggesting a middle Bakken well; in January, 2014, along with the name change (from TF to middle Bakken), Slawson also requested a revision "to allow for an additional lateral, would submit a revised plan for a single lateral plan"; in July, 2014, the thee Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte Oil from Slawson; the business address for Slawson and White Butte were identical, 1675 Broadway, Suite 1600, Denver, CO.; and that connects the last dot.

Also, from that link, note: In the original post on the Antelope Field, I wrote:

Antelope Field is an irregularly-shaped rectangular field, almost entirely within the reservation, on the east end of the northeast McKenzie County sweet spot in the Bakken. It is about two townships in size. It is of interest due to the fact that EOG plans to place 6 wells on a 320-acre spacing unit in this field.

It is interesting how things work out: in this immediate area, there are only three sections with 320-acre spacing: section 32-152-94; section 17-151-94; and section 20-15-94. When you expand the NDIC GIS map, you can find a few more such spacing units in: section 16-152-94; section 24-151-92; section 20-152-93, and you have to expand to almost the entire map to see additional such units: 320-acre drilling units in the Bakken are few and far between. It looks like most of them are inside the reservation. This puts things into perspective.

Graphics at many of the linked posts; I won't re-post them here.