Shifting to renewable energy sources has been widely touted as one of the best ways to fight climate change, but even renewable energy can have a downside, as in the case of wind turbines' effects on bird populations.
In a new paper in The Condor: Ornithological Applications, a group of researchers demonstrate the impact that one wind energy development in Kansas has had on Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) breeding in the area.
Virginia Winder of Benedictine College, Andrew Gregory of Bowling Green State University, Lance McNew of Montana State University, and Brett Sandercock of Kansas State University monitored prairie-chicken leks, or mating sites, before and after turbine construction and found that leks within eight kilometers of turbines were more likely to be abandoned.
Leks are sites at which male prairie-chickens gather each spring to perform mating displays and attract females. The researchers visited 23 leks during the five-year study to observe how many male birds were present and to record the body mass of trapped males. After wind turbine construction, they found an increased rate of lek abandonment at sites within eight kilometers of the turbines as well as a slight decrease in male body mass. Lek abandonment was also more likely at sites where there were seven or fewer males and at sites located in agricultural fields instead of natural grasslands.
First page: a "debate of sorts" between two analysts on where the price of oil is headed; one says higher; one says lower. After reading the first couple of paragraphs, I quit reading it. Predicting the price of oil is a fool's errand. Two comments: we will never run out of oil. Saudi Arabia is setting us up for a huge spike in the price of oil. Or not.
Page R2: a quiz on the Keystone XL pipeline. So yesterday.
Page R3: full half page by Amy Myers Jaffe, the executive director of energy and sustainability of California, Davis, and chairwoman of the Future of Oil and Gas for the World Economic Forum. Title of her article: "Never Mind Peak Oil -- Here Comes Peak Demand." If I remember I will come back to this one. See below.
Page R6: What the future of oil drilling will look like. Date line: Tioga, ND: Liberty Resources' 'oil factory' focuses on lower costs, more flexibility, and better community relations. Great graphics. Need to come back to this later. See below.
Page R6: Oil nations see an opening to reduce subsidies.
Page R7: the tough path form coal to renewables. Can't wait to read this one. See below.
Page R8: water meters begin to get smarter.
Page R8: Green spinoffs open sector to investors.
Page R8: frackers look for ways to cut their prodigious thirst. Can't wait to read this one. See below.
Page R9: carbon capture - a status report.
Page R9: easier to pay, easier to spend. The surprising result of automatic bill paying. This should be interesting.
Page R10: In Kenya, the wind and a dream.
Page R10: A Wichita linedrone? Utilities use unmanned craft to inspect power lines.
So Bittersweet
***************************
The Stories
This story first: full half page by Amy Myers Jaffe, the executive director of energy and
sustainability of California, Davis, and chairwoman of the Future of Oil
and Gas for the World Economic Forum. Title of her article: "Never Mind
Peak Oil -- Here Comes Peak Demand."
In this 10-page insert in today's WSJ this article was the first to catch my attention. The first thing I did, once I got the gist of the story, was to see if renewables were mentioned. They were. I read the short section on "renewables" and immediately looked to see who the author was. Then it all made sense. A story from the state of fruits and nuts. Her thesis is that we have reached -- or will soon reach -- peak demand for oil.
The Saudis are very, very concerned about "peak demand for oil." And how does one counter "peak demand"? Give oil away for $50/barrel; maintain the addiction.
Near the end of the article, Ms Jaffe wrote:
Finally, renewable energy is turning out to be more promising than expected, eating away at oil's share of electricity production -- and, eventually, automotive energy. China's commitment to an industrialization program pushing itself to be the world's major exporter of solar panels and advanced vehicles including the production of five million electric vehicles a year is another source of caution to those who forecast oil demand will rise exponentially forever.
Let's parse what she just said.
after thirty of years of tax subsidies and grants, the amount of solar energy consumption in the US rounds to 0% -- zero percent
President Obama "tariffed" China's solar panel program into the dustbin of renewable energy
Chinese EVs, as well as America's EVs, will run off coal
no one ever said anything about oil demand rising exponentially forever
fifty percent of oil is used for non-transport industries (plastics)
But, again, Saudi Arabia reminds us that as the price of oil falls, Americans will buy ever more SUVs, and the Chinese aspire to the American middle class dream ... and inexpensive oil will take them there.
******************
Liberty Resources, Page R6
What the future of oil drilling will look like -- case study: Liberty Resources, the Bakken. Regular readers already know about this; we've been talking about the "manufacturing stage" in the Bakken for the past several years.
Here's the graphic:
Note the graphic above: 12 wells per pad. In the graphic above, there are six 1280-acre drilling units. That's 72 wells. In fact, that's just the start. Others may have seen this coming long ago, but it was Harold Hamm who espoused it publicly over and over. And over. There will be enough wells in this one "manufacturing unit" to support a salt water disposal well, eliminating the need for trucking water to an off-site SWD well.
PAGE, Ariz.—For the past decade, the Navajo reservation here has struggled to navigate the change from coal to green power.
It’s still struggling.
The effort began when environmental activists filed a federal lawsuit that helped result in the closure of a nearby coal plant, which ended up costing many Navajos their jobs.
Activists said they would try to help the tribe develop clean-energy jobs. But now, years later, few jobs have been created. And a second large coal plant in the area is facing a partial shutdown, putting many of the nearly 1,000 jobs at the facility and a related mine in jeopardy.
About 90% of those jobs are held by Navajos, and the fallout could be significant on a reservation where unemployment runs about 50%. “We Navajo are wondering what to do next, because coal is a major part of our resource,” says Travis Francisco, 35, who supports a family of six on his job as a plant supervisor.
People who enrolled in automatic bill-payment programs increased their
monthly electricity consumption by between 4% and 6% on average, and
some groups used as much as 9% more electricity, according to research
by Steven Sexton, assistant professor of public policy and economics at
Duke University. Dr. Sexton’s paper on the subject appeared in the May
issue of The Review of Economics and Statistics.
The effect is based on what behavioral economists and many marketers
noticed a long time ago—the less attention we pay to price, the more
likely we are to spend more.
It is why companies bombard
consumers with cheap introductory offers that, once they expire, turn
into higher rates.
Mobile apps from companies such as Uber Technologies
Inc. and tools such as Amazon Inc.’s new Dash button, which allows
people to order household items at the push of a button, hide the price
and payment transaction entirely.
At ConocoPhillips Co., so much water is coming up with the fuel it is
drilling in the Permian Basin of Texas that water management, logistics
and recycling have taken on a new importance. During a recent talk with
analysts and investors, the company said water-management improvements
have helped it cut the cost of supply by about $8 a barrel in some
areas. Last year, ConocoPhillips produced 58,000 barrels a day of oil
equivalent in the Permian Basin.
There is a reason the Bakken is not mentioned in the article (unless I missed it): there is more than enough water in the Bakken to frack every well that is drilled. Period. Dot.
One risk that remains: a further decline in oil prices. Key African
oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola have been hurt by the global
plunge of oil prices. Kenya, however, a net importer of energy, is
benefiting, according to the World Bank.
Hence, the risk to the
Lake Turkana project is that if oil prices continue to fall, energy
produced by the wind farm could end up costing more than electricity
produced using oil.
“No one believes these [low oil] prices will
last forever” says Mr. Van Wageningen, when asked whether it makes sense
to build big renewable-energy projects at a time of historically low
energy prices. The director says he expects Lake Turkana’s pricing to be
competitive as long as crude doesn’t go below $40 a barrel.
Despite
all of the difficulties, he expects the wind farm to be profitable. “In
Africa you don’t get government subsidies to build renewable-energy
projects like you do in Europe,” he says. “Here you can only do it
because it makes financial sense.”
We'll see. But no, low oil prices won't last forever.
*******************************
Another Example Of Why The US Is The Best Country In The World
Embedding has been disabled. No one will open that link, but on the off-chance that you do, go to "56.00 minutes."
Crude oil aboard a BNSF train that derailed in North Dakota on
Wednesday caught fire even though it was less flammable than required by
a state law that took effect last month.
Test results sent to federal investigators and seen by Reuters show
the state’s new rule may not be stringent enough to significantly reduce
the risks of fireballs after derailments of trains carrying crude. In
this crash, the crude on board contained about 20 percent fewer volatile
gases than regulations mandate.
The oil, transported in tank cars owned by Hess Corp , had a vapor
pressure of 10.83 psi, according to test results. This pressure is less
than the new threshold of 13.7 psi.
A state Department of Health official says about 63,000 gallons of saltwater have leaked from a pipeline in northwest North Dakota and that some has reached a lake via a tributary.
Water Quality Director Karl Rockeman said Wednesday that it’s unclear how much of the saltwater has entered Smishek Lake near the town of Powers Lake, which is about 75 miles northeast of Williston. He says the lake does not supply area drinking water.
Saltwater, or brine, is an unwanted byproduct of oil production and is considered an environmental hazard by the state. It is many times saltier than sea water and can easily kill vegetation.
Rockeman says he considers the 1,500-barrel leak “significant.”
Oasis Petroleum owns and operates the pipeline. The state learned of the spill on Monday.
A North Dakota health official says a 70,000-barrel brine spill near Williston that has affected two creeks is the largest since the state’s oil boom began.
Operator Summit Midstream has begun the cleanup process and inspectors have been monitoring the affected area.
Brine is an unwanted byproduct of oil production and is considered an environmental hazard. It’s saltier than sea water.
The saltwater was released from a pipe Jan. 7 about 15 miles north of Williston and reached nearby waters in Blacktail Creek and Little Muddy Creek.
A contractor has pumped out from Blacktail Creek about 64,000 barrels of a mix of water and brine.
***********************
Oasis 1Q15 Earnings
Oasis Petroleum beats by $0.02, misses on revs: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.28 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.26; revenues fell 44.0% year/year to $180.4 mln vs the $253.77 mln consensus.
Exceeded production guidance range and increased average daily
production to 50,446 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("Boepd"), an 18%
increase over the first quarter of 2014 and a 1% sequential quarter
increase.
Invested capital expenditures ("CapEx") of $271.1 million in the first quarter of 2015, compared to a CapEx budget of $271.1 million.
Completed and placed on production 23 gross (19.2 net) operated wells in the first quarter of 2015.
Decreased lease operating expenses ("LOE") per barrel of oil equivalent ("Boe") to $8.62, a 17% decrease from the first quarter of 2014 and an 11% sequential quarter decrease.
Reported Adjusted EBITDA of $208.9 million
in the first quarter of 2015. For a definition of Adjusted EBITDA and a
reconciliation of net income and net cash provided by operating
activities to Adjusted EBITDA, see "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below.
Completed a public offering of 36.8 million shares, raising $463.1 million of net proceeds for the Company on March 9, 2015.
"Oasis exceeded production guidance of 47,000 to 49,000 Boepd in the
first quarter of 2015, as new wells brought on during the first quarter
exceeded production expectations with over 60% of the wells completed
with high intensity stimulation," said Thomas B. Nusz,
Oasis' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.
"Based on our first
quarter performance, we expect to produce between 47,000 and 49,000
Boepd in the second quarter of 2015 and to produce between 46,000 and
49,000 Boepd for the full year 2015. Additionally, CapEx tracked in line
with our budget, with drilling and completion capital coming in at $216.6 million, or $8.3 million
below our budget. There were some timing differences on a few
non-drilling and completion items, and we remain on track to spend our $705 million
CapEx budget for 2015. Well costs are trending below our original 2015
estimates, as the team has driven down the cost for high intensity
completions to approximately $9.0 million per well."
Mr. Nusz added, "The White Unit in Wild Basin, our first
multi-slickwater test, continues to outperform the high-end of our type
curve. The test included seven wells in a portion of a single DSU, all
completed with slickwater completions. The Middle Bakken well has
produced approximately 256,000 Boe through 216 days and the wells in the
first bench of the Three Forks have produced on average 167,000 Boe
through 192 days. Additionally, we completed our first high volume
proppant test in Alger, which is the
17,000 net acre southern subsection of South Cottonwood where we have 18
DSUs included in our core inventory.
The Helling Trust has two new
Middle Bakken wells that have produced on average 139,000 Boe through 88
days and a well completed in the first bench of the Three Forks wells
that has produced 104,000 Boe through 87 days.
All of the Middle Bakken
and Three Forks wells in both the White Unit and the Helling Trust have
early time production that is trending over double our corresponding
production data for our 750,000 Boe Middle Bakken
type curve and our 600,000 Boe Three Forks type curve,
respectively. The continued outperformance of both of these high
intensity completion tests continues to provide us with confidence in
our plans to target our core area with high intensity completions."
Taylor Reid, Oasis' President and Chief Operating Officer added, "We have driven LOE down to $8.62
per Boe, the lowest level we have delivered since our acquisition
during 2013 and 15% below 2014 levels. We have been successful at
lowering operating costs as we focus completions in areas with existing
salt water pipeline and disposal infrastructure as well as improving run
time on our producing wells. We increased connectivity to our OMS
infrastructure in the first quarter of 2015 and now have 58% of our
wells connected. We are updating our LOE guidance for the year to $9.00 to $10.00, based on confidence around recent performance."
"We also continue to increase our financial flexibility completing a $463 million
equity offering in early March as well as amending our credit facility
to increase the term to five years and to increase the committed level
to $1.525 billion. We have over $1.3 billion of liquidity even as we drill within cash flow for the remainder of the year," said Mr. Reid.
Babcock and Wilcox will report after the market today. Beats by 4 cents; beats on revenue.
MRO will report after the market closes today. 1Q15 loss but beats by 8 cents; misses on revenue.
SD will report after the market closes today. 1Q15 loss but beats by one penny; misses on revenue.
Tesla will report after the market closes today. Shareholders liked the report, pushing the stock higher, despite the fact that Tesla's net loss widened to $154 million. The loss, of $1.22 per share, compared to a
loss of 40 cents per share in the January-March period a year ago.
Transocean will report after the market closes today. Swings to loss but beats by 49 cents.
Denbury: a first-quarter loss of $107.7 million, after
reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier.
The
Plano, Texas-based company said it had a loss of 31 cents per share.
Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were 7 cents per share.
The
results met Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine
analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was also for earnings of 7
cents per share.
Chesapeake: swings to a loss, but beats by 7 cents; Reports Q1 earnings of $0.11 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.07 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.04; revenues fell 45.3% year/year to $2.76 bln vs the $3.45 bln consensus.
Average production of ~686,000 boe per day, an increase of 14% year over year, adjusted for asset sales.
Adjusted EBITDA was $928 million in the 2015 first quarter, compared to $1.515 billion in the 2014 first quarter.
Guidance:
2015 total production guidance increased to 640 -- 650 mboe per day
2015 capital guidance of approximately $3.5 -- $4.0 billion reiterated
Occidental Petro reports EPS in-line, misses on revs: Reports Q1 earnings of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.04; revenues fell 37.8% year/year to $3.09 bln vs the $3.35 bln consensus.
Enbridge: a quarterly loss compared with a year-ago profit, hurt by the impact of a steep drop in oil and gas prices and hedging losses; 46 Canadian cents per share, in the first quarter ended March 31,
compared with a profit of C$390 million, or 47 Canadian cents per
share, a year earlier. It's hard to believe, but ENB is trading near its 52-week high, and significantly increased their dividend in February, 2015.
***************************
Not A Believer
The Fed chairwoman says "valuations are high." I guess she's not a believer in "the efficient stock market theory."
The largest refiner in Ohio is Marathon Petroleum Company (MPC). We
first described proposals by their logistics affiliate MPLX to build one
or more pipelines in central Ohio to deliver lease and plant condensate
to area refineries in November 2013.
MPLX has just completed a successful binding Open Season for its
proposed 50 mile up-to 180 Mb/d Cornerstone pipeline. The Cornerstone pipeline
would initially connect two MarkWest gas-processing facilities at Cadiz
and Leesville, OH, and a UEO Midstream fractionator at Scio, OH, to the
90 Mb/d MPC refinery at Canton, OH.
MPLX could also extend the
Cornerstone project to connect to the MarkWest Hopedale fractionator and
to deliver condensate and natural gasoline (as well as possibly butane)
further west to refineries at Lima and
connecting pipelines to Toledo and Michigan feeding other Midwest
refineries. Extending those connections further west from Lima and north
to Hammond, IL, would also allow
condensate to be shipped to Canada via the Enbridge Southern Lights and
Kinder Morgan Cochin pipelines.
MPLX also delivers condensate by truck (potentially in the future by
pipeline) to a 60 Mb/d barge terminal at Wellsville, OH, from where it
can be delivered 260 miles down the Ohio River to their 242 Mb/d
Catlettsburg, KY, refinery.
***************************
US Economy
US productivity falls for second straight quarter. Blame it on the winter. (To the best of my knowledge, winter comes every year; it was not particularly worse this year than other years [in fact, in North Dakota, relatively benign as winters go]; and, had it not been for global warming, it could have been worse. Uff da.) [Later, from the MDU 1Q15 earning transcript: Several factors negatively affected our results for this quarter. Some
of the warmest winter weather on record affected utility earnings by
approximately 6.6 million.]
U.S. nonfarm productivity fell in the first quarter as harsh winter
weather weighed on output, pushing labor-related production costs to
rise at their quickest pace in a year.
Productivity declined at a 1.9 percent annual rate after dropping at a
revised 2.1 pace in the fourth quarter. That was the first back-to-back fall in productivity since
2006.
And I know we've had harsh winters since 2006. Whatever.
U.S. private employers added
169,000 jobs last month, the fewest since January 2014 and far below
economists' expectations.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 200,000 jobs.
March's private payrolls were ALSO revised down to an increase of 175,000 jobs from the previously reported 189,000.
************************************
Peak Oil -- Again
One needs to be cautious when reading Oilprice.com. I wrote this some time ago:
I'm not familiar enough yet with OilPrice or Leonard Brecken. Googling Leonard Brecken: first hit -- a short call on Netflix back in 2011. The site also notes that Leonard Brecken is the founder of small NJ based hedge fund Brecken Capital.
The picture becomes clearer. Superficially we have Goldman Sachs bearish, and a hedge fund (Brecken Capital) calling them (Goldman Sachs) on that.
For me, Oilprice.com is interesting, but it combines the old "Oil Drum" blog with subtle Motley Fool undertones. You have been warned. Having said that, today's Oilprice post on "peak oil" is good news for those bullish on oil.
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.
However, embedded in their post today, the writer includes a link to another post with a score of graphs showing oil production from countries around the world. The graphs are interesting but when such countries as Denmark and Gabon are included, it sort of dilutes the point they are trying to make.
The best comment:
While not exactly statistically valid, paging thru the data I wonder if a really large fraction of the decreases in individual countries are not more politically than geologically driven. That seems to be the case for some of the big producers such as Iran, Mexico, Venezuela and Libya. Clearly, though, the North Sea is a dead duck.
*****************************************
Remember All Those Banks Telling Us Oil Would Collapse To $30 By Now? Group Think?
No glass ceiling at Apple. Apple's Ahrendts emerges as top-paid US woman; $83 million. Actually it's a one-off; this year's pay included a signing bonus and a make-whole grant for awards left behind at Burberry. Actually, she should have paid Apple for the opportunity to sign on with them. And, oh, by the way, the pay package is currently valued at $105.5 million. Not quite the $1 billion pay-off the former Mrs Harold Hamm received -- I suppose one could call the $1 billion check a "make-whole grant" for leaving the team.
*****************************
Civil Disobedience
Governor Jerry Brown calls for a 25% decrease in water usage.
Water board staff scientist Max Gomberg said California residents and
businesses used only 3.6% less water in March than they did during the
same month in 2013, the baseline year for savings calculations.
And it looks like Californians may not like rater rationing:
California's hundreds of urban water suppliers assessed only 682
penalties to water wasters in the last several months after receiving
more than 10,000 complaints.
