Enerplus To Report A "Monster Well" Friday -- Almost 200K In Less Than 5 Months; Twenty (20) Wells To Come Off Confidential List Friday, Oasis With Thirteen; October 9, 2014

Note: this is a long post. There are probably errors -- typographical and factual, but I am taking my granddaughter swimming and corrections will have to wait. 

Alexander bypass finished; just in time for winter. Quite an achievement. Story here.  With this bypass completed, this almost completes the entire four- / five- / six-lane highway from Odessa to Midland Williston to Watford City.

I believe the Alexander bypass will follow the route in red to some extent. I'm not exactly sure where it enters the highway on the south side.

Update, March 5, 2015, this is the satellite view of the completed bypass:

See first comment: readers can compare my "guess" with the official map at this link: http://www.nddotwilliston.com/project-maps/.

Active rigs:

	10/9/2014	10/09/2013	10/09/2012	10/09/2011	10/09/2010
Active Rigs	192	185	191	194	156

Wells coming off the confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Nineteen (19) new permits --

• Operators: Newfield (6), XTO (4), SM Energy (4), Hunt (2), KOG (2), Enduro,
• Fields: Westberg (McKenzie), Tioga (Williams), West Ambrose (Divide), Wolf Bay (Dunn), Pembroke (McKenzie), North Grano (Renville),
• Comments: The six Newfield permits are for four wells on one pad; two wells on a different pad.

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:

• 25604, 883, OXY USA, Delvin Dukart 2-31-30H-143-95, Manning, t4/14; cum 49K 8/14;
• 26186, 90, Oasis, Freya 5892 44-34T, Cottonwood, t5/14; cum 4K 8/14;
• 26187, 635, Oasis, Marit 5892 44-34B, Cottonwood, t4/14; cum 24K 8/14;
• 26299, drl, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 44-18 2B, Alger, a nice well, 15K in first 18 days;
• 26381, 723*, Oasis, Mallard 5692 21-20 10B, Alger, middle Bakken, t6/14; cum 33K 8/14;
• 26504, 1,035, Oasis, Hendricks 5602 43-36 4T, Tyrone, t2/14; cum 25K 8/14;
• 26737, 3,374, Enerplus, Ribbon 152-94-18B-19H, Antelope, 42 stages; 10 million lbs sand, t4/14; cum 218K 8/14;
• 26833, 1,613, Oasis, Hysted 5200 14-30 3T2, Camp, t4/14; cum 21K 8/14;
• 26897, drl, Oasis, Delta 6093 24-15 2T, Gros Ventre, no production data,
• 26898, drl, Oasis, Delta 6093 24-15 3B, Gros Ventre, producing,
• 26980, drl, Hess, HA-Nelson-152-95-3328H-9, Hawkeye, no production data,
• 26990, 3,102, Enerplus, Hognose 152-94-18B-19H-TF, Antelope, t4/14; cum 200K 8/14;
• 27114, 709, Oasis, Hagen Banks 5298 42-31 2T2, Banks, t7/14; cum 21K 8/14;
• 27149, 367, Oasis, Hannan 6092 12-33H, Gros Ventre, t5/14; cum 23K 8/14;
• 27241, 1,507, Oasis, Tufto 5501 14-13 7B, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 32K 8/14;
• 27242, 531, Oasis, Tufto 5501 14-13 8T, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 39K 8/14;
• 27249, 1,552, Oasis, Tufto 5501 13-13 5B, Cow Creek, t6/14; cum 38K 8/14;
• 27355, drl, XTO, Thompson 41X-17MB3, Charlson, no production data,
• 27507, 1,029, Newfield, Craig Skaar 15-99-15-22-5H, South Tobacco Garden, t6/14; cum 46K 8/14;
• 27877, 415, Slawson, Cruiser 7-16-9TFH, Big Bend, t9/14; cum 11K 8/14;

*The scout ticket says the IP for #26381 was 7,231 bbls of oil. This is obviously incorrect. The file report has not yet been scanned in at the NDIC site. My hunch is that the correct number is 723 bbls.

****************************************

26990, see above, Enerplus, Hognose 152-94-18B-19H-TF, Antelope:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2014	33524	0
7-2014	33397	0
6-2014	27347	0
5-2014	54247	0
4-2014	49664	0

27507, see above, Newfield, Craig Skaar 15-99-15-22-5H, South Tobacco Garden:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2014	12709	20064
7-2014	14163	18248
6-2014	19061	17781

Where is Enerplus' Hognose located? Very, very interesting:

Do readers see the same thing I see?

**********************************

One (1) producing well completed (hope springs eternal):

• 09955, 16, Eduro, North Branch 2-32F, Duperow, North Branch: this is the relevant information from this well:

Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: RED RIVER     Cum Oil: 370095     Cum MCF Gas: 853203    
   Pool: BIRDBEAR     Cum Oil: 64694     Cum MCF Gas: 105800     
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 2/17/1983     Pool: RED RIVER     IP Oil: 410     IP MCF: 0   
   IP Test Date: 9/21/2005     Pool: BIRDBEAR     IP Oil: 5     IP MCF:     
   IP Test Date: 9/30/2007     Pool: BIRDBEAR     IP Oil: 30     IP MCF: 28    
   IP Test Date: 12/16/2013     Pool: DUPEROW     IP Oil: 16     IP MCF: 10     

 
Operator Transfer: 24 older wells from HRC Operating to Energyquest II.

Whatever Happened To The Upper Bakken Shale? -- October 9, 2014

This takes us back to a June 16, 2012, posting in which we discussed Slawson targeting the Upper Bakken Shale.

For newbies, it might be advantageous to review the geology being discussed at this post (at the linked post, scroll down to the "geology"). 

 A reader asked "whatever resulted from the Slawson wells that targeted the upper Bakken shale?"

In the linked post above to the June 16, 2012, entry, the Slawson wells were not specifically identified.

Going to "well search" at NDIC site, there are only two wells that fit that description:

• #16920, 216, Slawson, Piranha 1-4H, upper Bakken shale, one section, t3/08; cum 105K 8/14;
• #16401, conf, Slawson, Stingray Federal 1-32H, upper Bakken shale, two sections; t4/07; cum 195K 8/14;

The file reports are incredibly interesting. I had not looked at them until recently. They clearly state the objective was the (upper) Bakken Shale.

Both wells are moderately successful and both wells are still active.

Scout ticket for #16920:

NDIC File No: 16920   
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 3/24/2008     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SWSW 4-146-104   Latitude: 47.490777     Longitude: -103.945780
Current Operator: SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.
Current Well Name: PIRANHA 1-4H
Total Depth: 14145     Field: SQUAW GAP
Spud Date(s):  2/3/2008
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10843-14145     Comp: 3/24/2008     Status: AL     Date: 5/30/2008     Spacing: SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 105133     Cum MCF Gas: 53912     Cum Water: 695
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 3/26/2008     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 216     IP MCF: 54     IP Water: 0

Scout Ticket for #16401

NDIC File No: 16401    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/4/2007     Wellbore type: Directional
Location: NENE 32-147-104     Latitude: 47.514587     Longitude: -103.949908
Current Operator: SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.
Current Well Name: STINGRAY FEDERAL 1-32H
Total Depth: 13952     Field: SQUAW GAP
Spud Date(s):  1/10/2007
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10203-13952     Comp: 4/4/2007     Status: AL     Date: 5/18/2007     Spacing: SEC
   Pool: RED RIVER     Comp: 4/4/2007     Status: DRY     Date: 4/4/2007
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 194,761   Cum MCF Gas: 72265     Cum Water: 1290
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 4/4/2007    Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 479     IP MCF: 195     IP Water: 100

Some things to note:

• the "Bakken" is not otherwise specified, but the report clearly stated "Bakken shale" or "upper Bakken shale"
• the earlier well is described as a directional well; the older well, a horizontal well
• although it's possible I missed it, or did not understand the report, it appears these wells were not fracked
• despite the low IP (and particularly if they were not fracked), the total production has exceeded 100,000 bbls (though it has taken quite a bit of time)

Natural Gas Fill Rate Slightly Over Magic Number Of 100 -- October 9, 2014

The magic number is 100.

More is better if one is worried about preparation for the winter.

The number today: 105. At the link, scroll down to see the graph.

See "NG_Fill_Rate" at bottom of blog for past posts on this subject.

This link probably explains the most.

 **************************************

ObamaCare: The Gift That Keeps On Giving

CNBC is reporting:

Obamacare has only gotten passing attention this election season, but it is likely to return as a hot topic early next year. That is because during the 2015 tax filing season, millions of low- to moderate-income taxpayers will likely first learn that they exceeded the income eligibility levels for the Obamacare subsidy they received in 2014 and will need to repay the government. This repayment could result in a sufficiently abrupt and targeted reduction in consumer spending that could delay the Federal Reserve from starting to raise short-term interest rates, which the consensus view expects to occur in March, coincidentally contemporaneous with when this looming "consumer cliff" hits.

Those advising investors may find this interesting. We're not going to see any significant increase in the "Fed rate" while Mr Obama is still in office. It will kill any hope of recovery.

I think there are two other story lines that are much more interesting. The folks that will be most affected are those who spend almost all their cash/money as soon as they get it; they live month-to-month; they are not savers. A lot of money is not going to be spent at Wal-Mart or the local Dollar Store. The second story is that a lot of folks who have never gotten a letter from the IRS before will be shocked to get a letter along with their refund that tells them they need to reconcile what they told ObamaCare when they applied and the income they are reporting to the IRS. 

 **************************************

Global Warming

Antarctic ice: extent reaches all-time high record. Climate scientists say they are baffled.

Sea ice surrounding the Antarctic continent reached its maximum extent on September 22 at 20.11 million square kilometers (7.76 million square miles). This is 1.54 million square kilometers (595,000 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average extent, which is nearly four standard deviations above average. Antarctic sea ice averaged 20.0 million square kilometers (7.72 million square miles) for the month of September.

This new record extent follows consecutive record winter maximum extents in 2012 and 2013. The reasons for this recent rapid growth are not clear. Sea ice in Antarctica has remained at satellite-era record high daily levels for most of 2014.

Oceans not a heat sink: NASA scientists also baffled. Oceans have not warmed measurably since 2005. "Measurably" is the key word. I assume the NASA computer models show that the oceans have, in fact, warmed. LOL.

North American snow cover for September sets record -- highest on record.

 *************************************
Popular Book Fill Rate

Rush's new book is #2 at Amazon.com and #3 at Barnes & Noble in pre-orders.

Whiting-KOG Merger Will Benefit Both Companies -- Seeking Alpha -- October 9, 2014

Contributor at Seeking Alpha:

• The merger will allow the new entity to have a diverse asset base, and Kodiak will not see seasonal disruption in production levels due to harsh weather.
• The scale of operations will result in bringing cost synergies to the combined entity, which should enhance its margins.
• The merger should also result in shielding the company against falling oil prices as cost savings will allow the company to maintain margins in the face of falling oil prices.

Kodiak's prospective merger with Whiting will be beneficial for both companies as the new entity will have the largest liquid acreage in Bakken - the advantage of the scale will allow both these companies to add substantial value to the shareholders through increased production and decreased cost. In our previous article, we discussed the details about the Kodiak-Whiting merger and the strong future growth prospects from the impressive asset base of the entity. However, the focus of this article is to highlight the position of the merged entity and the impact of the global oil prices on the company.

Seeking Alpha articles frequently "disappear" after a few weeks, requiring a subscription to access.

Tribal Members On Fort Berthold Will Start Drilling Their Own Wells; Brigham Is Back -- October 9, 2014

From Bakken.com:

Currently, oil companies lease drilling rights and pay a royalty to the MHA Nation.

Under the auspices of the tribal-owned Missouri River Resources, at least four wells will be drilled near Mandaree.  Missouri River Resources President David Williams said 30 wells are planned, and the first four are set to begin drilling in February 2015.  “Right now we’re building the team to do the project,” Williams said.  Brigham Resources, LLC, a privately held oil and gas company headquartered in Austin, Texas has been contracted to oversee the drilling operation.  Baker Hughes will provide well servicing.

Williams said the MHA Nation is providing the expertise including a petroleum geologist, drilling consultant and attorneys.  Williams said the initial investment for the tribal-owned wells is coming partially from a loan from the oil revenue the MHA nation has already received.  It’s estimated the wells will cost about $10-million each and the tribal government has loaded $8-million per well.

I don't yet see Missouri River Resources listed as an operator in North Dakota at the NDIC site. 

My hunch is that the Missouri River Resources will use a strategy similar to that used by the sovereign Arab countries in the Mideast.

Brigham Resources.

Brigham Resources, LLC is a privately held oil and gas company headquartered in Austin, Texas. Founded by Bud Brigham and former management team members from Brigham Exploration Company following the company’s sale to Statoil, Brigham Resources is focused on using advanced technologies to identify and develop unconventional liquids rich resource plays.

Management team:

• Bud Brigham: chairman
• Gene Shepherd: CEO

Don led me on this wild goose chase. Happy to say the wild goose was caught in this case.

Upcoming Conferences -- October 9, 2014

Bakken Flaring Alternatives, December 9 - 10, Denver, CO.

Bakken & Niobrara Crude Takeaway & Markets Congress, January 28 - 29, 2015, Denver, CO. Website being developed.

The August, 2014, North Dakota Production Report Should Be Out Any Day Now -- October 9, 2014

The monthly production report for August, 2014, for North Dakota should be out any day now. The Director's Cut generally follows shortly after that.

Mark Perry / Carpe Diem frequently posts the data before I do.

By the way, Carpe Diem will have a new URL in the next day or two: http://new.aei.org/publication/blog/carpe-diem/. Currently not "up."

****************************

Hockey Stick Graphics

Warmists may want to look at the updated "hockey stick" graph. And this one is real; not a computer-generated model. 

WPX Includes The Bakken As One Of Its Trio Of US Plays -- October 9, 2014

From the discussion board, this link to Tulsa World: the Bakken will remain the third leg of WPX's three-legged stool for the next five years.

WPX Energy Inc. is staking its future on a trio of core oil and gas plays in North Dakota, New Mexico and Colorado, the Tulsa-based oil and gas producer announced Wednesday.

The new five-year strategy will simplify WPX’s geographic focus and expand returns, margins and cash flows over the next five years, according to the plan. The company’s core resource plays have an estimated 16,000 remaining drillable locations, 480,000 net acres and more than 14 trillion cubic feet equivalent of proved, probable and possible oil and gas reserves as of December 2013.

Those core plays are the Williston Basin in North Dakota, the San Juan Basin in New Mexico and the Piceance Basin in Colorado. WPX holds more than 220,000 net acres in leases and 4,600 wells in the Piceance.

I track the Piceance here, with a great graphic.

North Dakota Notches Coldest Temp In Lower 48; Active Rigs Ties High For This Date; Is Baghdad Close To Falling To ISIL? -- October 9, 2014

Germany headed back into recession? Russian ruble near collapse? US market down another 200 points today. How are those sanctions working out? Haven't heard much from the Ukraine lately.

Following closely the polls that show people being "hurt" by ObamaCare, we now get word that more than a dozen states will cancel health care policies not in compliance with ObamaCare -- the cancellations will arrive about the time folks are getting ready to vote.  Like your insurance plan? Don't become too attached.

*********************************

The ultimate Keystone XL workaround. Yahoo!Finance is reporting:

The political drama tying up the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline isn't slowing down Canada. According to Bloomberg News, Canada is constructing a $10.7 billion pipeline, which would run through six provinces and four time zones, straight out to the Atlantic Ocean.

It’s the ultimate workaround, albeit a very expensive one. The pipeline is being called Energy East, and it would use existing or underused natural gas pipelines to make its way across Canada. It could be up and running by 2018.

Energy company TransCanada first proposed the Keystone XL pipeline six years ago to bring oil from Alberta down to the Gulf Coast. The Keystone pipeline was supposed to create jobs and lessen U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Instead, it has created political theatre, polarizing policymakers over environmental and safety issues.

The key quote from the article: "You snooze, you lose."

Earlier links discussing Energy East:

• August 1, 2013
• June 4, 2013
• April 21, 2013

********************************

Jobless claims drop 1,000 -- wow ... 287,000, link here:

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to nearly its lowest level since before the 2007-09 recession, a sign of growing steam in the U.S. labor market.

Buried deep in the article: previous week's numbers were revised upwards ... by 1,000. So, it's a wash today.

The four-week average fell 7,250 to 287,750, its lowest level since 2006.

A reader sent this in early this morning:

Langdon, ND, had the coldest temperature in the lower 48 yesterday with a low of 19. Rolla, ND, is in the lead for the coldest spot in the nation this morning, if that is a contest you want to win........

( Rolla had a low temp of 19 degrees )

Active rigs:

	10/9/2014	10/09/2013	10/09/2012	10/09/2011	10/09/2010
Active Rigs	194	185	191	194	156

RBN Energy: crude falls to pieces. I don't think there's a whole lot here that regular readers aren't already aware of.

With air power alone, we may have to destroy Baghdad to save it. Link here. The big question: if Baghdad falls, who is "behind" ISIL? Did Iran achieve its goal?

This morning ISIL executed 1,700 students (children, kindergarten, elementary) near an Iraqi air base, filmed it all, and systematically killed every one of them. Some Harvard students say the US is a bigger threat to world peace than ISIL.

For a guy who for six years (and counting) continues to decide whether to approve a single pipeline, world events are moving so quickly, he must think the world is spinning out of control. 

*********************************

From The Williston Wire

World's largest carry-out pizza chain will open store in Williston: Little Caesar's.

High-end, Dickinson-based retailer, Starboard, will host a ceremonial ground-breaking on Monday, October 13th, at 1 p.m. in front of their store site at the Sand Creek Town Centre in Williston. The store expects to be open in time for the 2014 Holiday shopping season.

City of Williston government and business leaders are attending the Ports-to-Plains Alliance Conference this week in Del Rio, Texas and Acuña, Coahuila. The delegation is seeking information about the manufacturing opportunities along the US Highway 85 / Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in North Dakota. 

There could be another 10,844 wells in McKenzie County in the next 13 years. McKenzie County is projected to have 13,500 wells by 2027. To put that growth into perspective, McKenzie County had 2,656 in production in July of this year, while there are now 11,287 producing wells in all of North Dakota. 

The Bismarck Tribune reports high-end crew camps for roughnecks.