Active rigs: 183
RBN Energy:
update on the CBR unloading terminals on the west coast; another must read post. Part 2 in the series.
The Wall Street Journal
I agree 100% -- "US shutdown creates investment opening. As they sift through the Washington mess, some money managers think it could be a blessing. Any stock sell-off, they say, would be a buying opportunity."
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Heard on the street: a known unknown for oil prices.
Among other inconveniences, Washington's shutdown could make it
harder to keep track of what is going on in a place just over 1,000
miles away from it: Cushing, OK.
Cushing, where several major pipelines meet, is where oil futures are
settled physically.
So stock levels there are watched closely. The
Energy Information Administration releases those figures once a week,
but the shutdown could soon prevent it from doing so, leaving the market
in the dark.
Here's betting, though, that Cushing's tanks are going to empty out
some in coming weeks. All else equal, that is bullish for benchmark West
Texas Intermediate oil prices.
Regular readers know what we are talking about. Remember the numbers: 5/35.
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Some years ago, the big automakers and car dealers gave a resounding "no" to on-line (web) sales. Now, Government Motors opens doors to web sales.
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This has been an interesting phenomenon to watch. I love technology but I avoid do-it-yourself checkout counters at the grocery story. I could list the reasons, but
The Wall Street Journal has done it for me.
Fascinating article:
Computers seem to be replacing humans across many industries, and we're all getting very nervous.
But if you want some reason for optimism, visit your local
supermarket. See that self-checkout machine? It doesn't hold a candle to
the humans—and its deficiencies neatly illustrate the limits of
computers' abilities to mimic human skills.
The human supermarket checker is superior to the self-checkout
machine in almost every way. The human is faster. The human has a more
pleasing, less buggy interface. The human doesn't expect me to remember
or look up codes for produce, she bags my groceries, and unlike the
machine, she isn't on hair-trigger alert for any sign that I might be
trying to steal toilet paper. Best of all, the human does all the work
while I'm allowed to stand there and stupidly stare at my phone, which
is my natural state of being.
There is only one problem with human checkers: They're in short
supply. At my neighborhood big-box suburban supermarket, the lines for
human checkers are often three or four deep, while the self-checkout
queue is usually sparse. Customers who are new to self-checkout might
take their short lines to mean that the machines are more efficient than
the humans, but that would be a gross misunderstanding.
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My wife is eagerly awaiting to go to "Gravity." The first opening on our busy, busy schedule is Wednesday. "Gravity" soars to number 1 over the weekend. Science-fiction thriller "Gravity" set an October box-office record and
showed that audiences still will choose 3-D screenings for movies they
believe are worth the higher price. My wife doesn't like 3-D, saying its distracting, so we will go to the regular screening, I suppose. It costs seniors $6.00 at one of the nicest theaters in the US. What's not to like.
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I still don't have television (or internet at home) so I didn't see the President's Cup, but I see "Tiger Woods clinches the Cup for the Americans." Good for him. I'm a fair weather fan of Tiger.
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So, now the front page. Yup, we've moved on to the debt ceiling crisis. The government shutdown will simply fade away. Bringing back the military civilians essentially leaves the national monuments and national parks closed as the only tangible evidence of a government shutdown. Everyone will get back pay, meaning furloughed workers are on paid vacation. What's not to like. [However, buried on page 6: Nearly a week into the shutdown, signs of economic damage are mostly
limited to stalled contracts and lost tourism revenue. But the risk of a
long closure is raising concerns among economists and executives. The numbers don't add up: 90% of the government is still working -- probably more when one considers what is on auto-pilot -- and folks are worried about the shutdown's effect on GPD. Perhaps a few government contracts and lots of government contractors are at risk, but that's not particularly unusual.]
According the
WSJ, "The federal government acknowledged for the first time it needed to fix
design and software problems that have kept customers from applying
online for health-care coverage." SecTreasury Lew was asked a simple question over the weekend about the on-line exchanges but he was unable to answer. The question was: how many Americans have signed up for ObamaCare? SecTreasury Lew was unable to answer. It was originally reported that one -- yes, one, that is not a typo -- person was able to sign up but that turned out to be bogus. My hunch: the on-line exchanges will be the number one targeted site for hackers. The Chinese will be responsible but George Bush will get the blame.
What is being overlooked in this trainwreck: a) even if folks can get to the second page of the on-line health exchange, they will be shocked by the prices; and, b) if one is "too poor," they are not eligible for ObamaCare. Say what? My hunch: very few folks eligible for the steepest discounts will actually sign up unless they have significant medical bills that need to be paid. The math doesn't work out otherwise. The co-pays and deductibles will exceed the monthly premiums in most cases even for healthy young adults.
By the way: the government has defined, for the first time, the age one becomes an adult: 26. Up to age 26 one can remain on one's parents' health insurance policy. Twenty-six. That's the US official age for an adult. Sort of like the new official US work week: 30 hours. And the official size for a business: 50 employees. That third data point is a stretch, but threes are necessary.
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Who made money off the financial crisis some years ago? Warren Buffett's crisis-lending haul has reached $10 billion. Warren Buffett tossed lifelines to a handful of blue-chip companies
during the financial crisis. Five years later the payoff on those deals
is becoming clear: $10 billion and counting. I was upset when Warren bought BNSF -- that was my best investment ever -- but the exchange (BNI for BRK-B) has worked out better than expected. The best deal: I'm not paying taxes on BNI dividends each year which were getting pretty excessive. The taxes, not the dividends.
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This is awesome: Washington, DC, skateaboarders may be the real winners. The monuments are "closed" with barrycades but few guards for all the squares and parking lots -- from
The WSJ, "The government shutdown has given skateboarders in Washington new life, as plazas empty and enforcement chills."
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Meanwhile, soldiers are racing to get tattoos before Army brass tighten rules that
are now the least restrictive in the armed forces. The new set of
regulations, now under final review, would ban tattoos below the knee or
elbow.
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And then
this bizarre story to finish The WSJ today:
Argentine President Cristina Kirchner's
surprise decision to take a month's rest for health reasons sparked
political uncertainty in the South American country, as her absence will
sideline her from politics just weeks before her ruling Victory Front
coalition faces a key test in midterm Congressional elections.
During a routine cardiovascular
examination Saturday, Mrs. Kirchner was diagnosed with a chronic
subdural hematoma—the gradual buildup of blood between the outermost
layers of tissue that envelope the brain. Mrs. Kirchner's hematoma was
discovered after she suffered a head injury Aug. 12, a government
spokesman said.
She has pretty much destroyed the country anyway, so her absence won't make much difference, I suppose:
In recent weeks, Mrs. Kirchner has pledged to continue policies that
emphasize the redistribution of the country's wealth through taxation
and spending on social programs. Those same policies have fueled one of
the highest rates of inflation in the Americas, which private sector
forecasters peg at between 20% and 25%.
